***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Charmonium]

Wanna buy some watch....options? Lots of upside and no downside on deese Roplexes. :sneaky:

Ruh? Did I kick your puppy w/o realizing it? If you read the financial press at all, you should be familiar with common terms. Those are common terms.

edit: oh wait a minute. I know what happened. The market fucked you up the ass yesterday and now baby is in a bad mood. Boo-hoo.

 

[brianmanahan]

Ruh? Did I kick your puppy w/o realizing it?

^ found the hustler

 

[FelixDeCat]

^ found the hustler

That guy is an idiot and on ignore.

 

[Banana]

I've been waiting for this correction for a long time. I put $25k into an S&P tracking fund today. I probably shouldn't catch a falling knife, but I just got too tempted. If it falls another 3% next week, I'll double down.

Same here. Well, not $25k, but added a chunk to my IRA fund. I keep telling myself it's for the long term.

 

[JEDI]

what happened to the historic 20% stock market rise when a 2nd term Democrat president is their 3rd year with a repub congress?

should have sold in may and come back oct1, like the old saying goes! (non-ira funds)

 

[brianmanahan]

what happened to the historic 20% stock market rise when a 2nd term Democrat president is their 3rd year with a repub congress?

should have sold in may and come back oct1, like the old saying goes! (non-ira funds)

it's more whatcha call "guidelines" than actual rules

 

[Imp]

what happened to the historic 20% stock market rise when a 2nd term Democrat president is their 3rd year with a repub congress?

should have sold in may and come back oct1, like the old saying goes! (non-ira funds)

I sold in February and walked away... Still up 10% on the year in terms of Northern Pesos.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ok for the people who just don't get it, yes we close higher on Monday. Then its flat to down until the Fed lady sings.

 

[Charmonium]

Futures are showing at least a 100 point drop.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The current futures quote is in reaction to current conditions in other world markets. That may change by the close of European markets, when the US will take control and it either goes flat or up. My bet is up, but I have no money either way. It could wind up slightly down, but I dont expect anything dramatic.

There are such things as washouts (aka capitulation) but we are way too far from that. Thats historically an October event.

 

[Imp]

Wouldn't put much stock in any numbers right now. They usually go the opposite direction by the time the US markets open... Then they go another way by 1pm EST.

 

[Charmonium]

Wouldn't put much stock in any numbers right now. They usually go the opposite direction by the time the US markets open... Then they go another way by 1pm EST.

I think the open will be lower but there will probably be a lot of bargain hunters out tomorrow. Just checked hang seng and it's down over 4% from Friday.

 

[FelixDeCat]

zomg

-450 Dow & -175 Nasdaq futures!!

I think we went too long without a 10% selloff but we are about to hit it way too fast. Apple, NFLX, Amazon, Google all hit historic highs, the QQQs were 114 a month ago. I thought the QQQs would hold 100 until October. Im starting to wonder now.

Whatever is happening (people want to blame China), it will be short lived as the idiotic hedge funds de-lever and prepare for redemptions.

 

[sm625]

Trying to catch a falling knife is a fool's game. The pattern that looks to be forming is a symmetrical waterfall. The moment of peak volatility and price action is the waterfall moment. It is a very easy pattern to trade. First thing you have to do is wait for the market to settle down. After we go a week or so without making a new low and IF we do not retrace back into the waterfall area then it means the final low will be exactly equadistant from the center of the waterfall as the top was. I will mark up a chart if the pattern actually takes hold.

 

[Charmonium]

Margin debt is close to all time highs so there should be more pain before we bottom out. I'm sure a butt load of margin calls went out Friday so if we don't get a bounce Monday, people will be looking to cya.

 

[Imp]

I think the open will be lower but there will probably be a lot of bargain hunters out tomorrow. Just checked hang seng and it's down over 4% from Friday.

I have no clue what it's going to do anymore and will be entertained regardless.

But I think China/Asia markets closed before Friday happened here, so this may be them reacting to news a couple day sold.

In more relevant to me news, exchange rate has fallen to CA$ 0.75 = US$ 1. Yay me.

 

[Charmonium]

Yeah, definitely interesting - like the chinese curse 'may you live in interesting times.'

Hang Seng gapped down about 600pts and has dropped about another 300 but it's bouncing around. Could settle at around 800pts down for the day.

Dow futures came back a little but have now broken below 16k.

 

[Imp]

So... The Shanghai market (?) is down 8% as of 3am EST. That should be at/close to closing in China.

Dow was only down a "measly" 3%-ish Friday.

Edit: Sigh, should have sold my POT when it was up 10% earlier in the year. Or maybe when I was still break-even a few weeks back. Oh well, 5% dividend, we still all need to eat -- I hope.

 

[rcpratt]

Here we go. This should be fun!

 

[MustISO]

Futures are down a ton this morning. Glad I waited to jump back in, hoping to catch it on the way back up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tempest in a Chinese teapot.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Since I trade QQQ options, I always keep an eye on its top 10 holdings to guess the next move. Premarket this is what it looks like:

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The stock market is taking one giant shit this morning... holy fuck, dow FV @ -700.

Shouldn't have bought Friday, but oh well. I left a little wiggle room to continue buying if the market continues downward like today.

 

[Banana]

Roller coaster. Gonna need fortitude to trade early today.

 

[Engineer]

People still afraid from the 2007-2009 (or so) big crash. Still fresh in their minds and they are running. If we get another drop anywhere near that, the US retirement system (401k's, IRA's, etc) will collapse on itself as the gains (if any) will never materialize as people won't put their money back this time (for at least a long time)....IMO. See the period of the late 20's/early 30's through the 60's for a market that went sideways because people were afraid (and broke) to attempt it again.