***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Ya, I dropped the ball on this one. Did the classic averaging down and denial thing they warn people not to do. Even worse, I went over the limit I set for myself on a single position.

Good thing is that I played it safe with the remaining majority of my portfolio and am doing great on that end -- managed to still come out ahead despite the losses on this POS.

Also, half of my position was in a tax-free account so you can't claim capital losses -- no tax on gains either. I'll just stick with it since the amount left is essentially a joke now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

why do you own this thing? it has no revenue, ebitda, or anything that can be based on fundamentals. It is a story stock and in the biotech/pharma world, and for every hundred great stories, 1 or 2 actually pan out. AAPL can do at least 10% EPS growth per year. ADXS on a risk/beta adjusted basis is a piece of shit and is akin to playing roulette or craps.

A lot of young biotech stocks have no revenue but what is fundamental to them is their potential, so it depends on how you value them. There is some good threads in the stock message boards in support of the stock, and large investors have moved the price up from $2.50 to nearly $13 so far this year.

I also agree with Adam Feurenstein, who has been covering pharma / biotech stocks for many years at TheStreet.com. I have read his stories on occasion going back to at least 2001 on many names. His has been able to pick and pan some of the winners and losers in this field. Recently he wrote favorably about Advaxis. http://www.thestreet.com/story/1302...cer-immunotherapy.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

ADXS is VERY VOLATILE 5 day chart:

Its 52 week high was near $13, giving it a $300MM valuation. Adam also noted that ADXS has a very low valuation in relation to its peers making it relatively attractive. They are scheduled to give an investor presentation and update the first week of February that might bring more interest / appreciation.

Another player will enter the field later this year when Aduro Biotech goes public which is expected to fetch a much higher price. This could cause more share appreciation as sector stocks tend to rise in sympathy up to and during IPOs.

I think ADXS will see $20 - $30+ in 2015, which is a double / triple form today's closing price of $10. Im going all in on this 'casino' stock. :sneaky:

 

[sm625]

I think ADXS will see $20 - $30+ in 2015, which is a double / triple form today's closing price of $10. Im going all in on this 'casino' stock. :sneaky:

I remember this stock as being one of those that went vertical in 2009. So you're going all in on a play that, according to you, has an upside potential of only $30? Your risk is that ADXS goes all the way down to $2. That is a hell of a risk for only 2.5x return potential. ADXS has enjoyed several rallies over the past 3 years, all of which have been triple+ gainers. But it really looks like you're near the top on a pattern that has already repeated 3 times.

 

[Imp]

Weeeeee.... COS is actually up today, up to CAD$ 8 thanks to the "we can probably avoid bankruptcy" rally or something. I was ready to see CAD$ 5. Looks like it may be able to stay above $6 unless oil prices stay low forever.

CAD$ is tanking, but still not as much as I'd like.

Edit: Canada's GDP was -0.2% in November.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-s-gdp-shrank-0-2-in-november-1.2937576

Since December only saw oil drop more, January held pretty stable at a low, that should make a quarter of negative growth?

Also, a major bank cut 500 jobs over the past few weeks, reported yesterday. Good times a'coming!

 

[sm625]

Still extremely bearish. I've got another crash indicator on the NASDAQ. If QQQ rallies to 104 that is going to be a huge entry point. If that happens I will buy puts and will not sell them for even 5 or 10x. The cliff is approaching....

 

[Imp]

So, I sold a bunch of my preferreds because it was at the high point where they started dropping 2 or 3 percent over the past year. Plan is to buy back when it's 2-3% lower...

But if Fed increases interest rate mid-year, would that send preferreds down? Or has it been priced in already... About a year ago, something sent all my preferreds down over 5%. They never fully recovered -- came out ahead due to dividends though.

 

[JEDI]

WTF happened to oil today?!
it went up almost 10%?!

shorts got caught w/their pants down and did panic short covering?

cant believe a 94 reduction in oil rig count was the cause of that?

 

[Imp]

Explanations from various news:
- ~7% reduction in rigs = potential bottom
- short covering
- dead cat bounce

I'm going with dead cat bounce. Something about most of the gain happening after 3pm.

 

[JEDI]

Explanations from various news:
- ~7% reduction in rigs = potential bottom
- short covering
- dead cat bounce

I'm going with dead cat bounce. Something about most of the gain happening after 3pm.

and yet the US still produced a record amount of barrels of oil in Jan as the # of rigs dropped.

The world is still producing +2M barrels more than what is being used.

 

[KB]

and yet the US still produced a record amount of barrels of oil in Jan as the # of rigs dropped.

The world is still producing +2M barrels more than what is being used.

The most productive and efficient wells are being kept and used heavily to make up for those are less efficient. Once those wells run slower I imagine that number will drop quickly.

I was waiting for 40 bucks a barrel, but 44 seems like resistance. I might have to tiptoe back into oil soon but only the oil majors with refining which can help offset low prices.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Imp I highly recommend you buy this kindle book. It's 4 bucks, less than the cost of one trade commission. It has plenty of good advice regarding trading psychology. Written by Mark Wolfinger who has 20 years of market making experience in the CBOE floor.Mark is a real standup guy, he is the real deal.


http://www.amazon.com/The-Option-Tra.../dp/B00AWWMU18

 

[Imp]

Thanks, I'll put it on my wish list for now -- hate reading things I'm "forced" to read. Price tag at $4 isn't bad.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I remember this stock as being one of those that went vertical in 2009. So you're going all in on a play that, according to you, has an upside potential of only $30? Your risk is that ADXS goes all the way down to $2. That is a hell of a risk for only 2.5x return potential. ADXS has enjoyed several rallies over the past 3 years, all of which have been triple+ gainers. But it really looks like you're near the top on a pattern that has already repeated 3 times.

Its been a wild ride for ADXS thats for sure, and TBH in the past they have layed some eggs but stocks historically return 10% +/- per year. If you are making 250% *a n n u a l i z e d*, that is incredible. Heck even just beating the S&P is considered kickass for most folks.

I might buy some GRPN prior to earnings on 2/13/15. Got a nice ride from $7.11 to $7.30 the other day for a quick trade. Outright I could get 600 shares long or short, or buy a few puts / calls the night before. Right now the option market is pricing in a 10% swing either way, with a bias towards a drop....rather rich IMO.

Last time in Aug 2014 Groupon fell from $7 to under $6 and a few weeks later overtook $7 once again. I guess you could buy the dip or short the rip after earnings day has ended. I would love to see this puppy over $10 in 2015, but Im just looking for a fast buck. :sneaky:

 

[Imp]

lulz? So much for low oil prices saving consumers money, bumping manufacturing and consumer spending.

Gas prices in my area went up in the last day or two. Reason? TV says the exchange rate of the Canadian Dollar. Makes sense considering a lot of oil in eastern Canada (2/3 of the country's population?) is apparently bought from Africa and the Middle East, NOT the oil sands within the country.

Edit: Also, my city's looking at closing up to 60 public schools. Lot of well paying teachers might lose their jobs.

Doesn't look good for the CAD-US exchange rate.

 

[Imp]

Oil currently around $47. There goes that Friday late rally?

 

[edro]

Why do my retirement funds follow the inverse of the market in general?
Today for example:
VDIGX -1.79%
VDADX -1.62%
VASVX -1.15%
VFORX -1.15%

Yet the market is UP +1.5% today.

It always seems to be the opposite of the S&P 500, DOW, Nasdaq, etc.

 

[ghost recon88]

Why do my retirement funds follow the inverse of the market in general?
Today for example:
VDIGX -1.79%
VDADX -1.62%
VASVX -1.15%
VFORX -1.15%

Yet the market is UP +1.5% today.

It always seems to be the opposite of the S&P 500, DOW, Nasdaq, etc.

Those funds have not released their numbers yet today, a quick google of the VFORX shows that -1.15% coming from closing last Friday.

 

[edro]

Those funds have not released their numbers yet today, a quick google of the VFORX shows that -1.15% coming from closing last Friday.

Wow, what a noob (me). I assumed all funds updated daily.

 

[ghost recon88]

Wow, what a noob (me). I assumed all funds updated daily.

They do, but Vanguard doesn't release their numbers until 6PM EST, 2 hours after the market closes.

 

[edro]

They do, but Vanguard doesn't release their numbers until 6PM EST, 2 hours after the market closes.

So that's why it always appeared they lagged a day; They DO lag a day.

 

[ghost recon88]

So that's why it always appeared they lagged a day; They DO lag a day.

Yea not sure why the heck it takes them so long to calculate vs. doing it in real time, maybe someone else can chime in on that?

 

[Imp]

COS up a ton again today... on buyout rumors. Eff it, give me a premium to push the price up to CAD$ 12 and I'll be happy to write it off. Give me $15 and I may even break even.

Also, oil up and CAD$ up relative to US$. Economic numbers still suck so...

 

[sm625]

Yea not sure why the heck it takes them so long to calculate vs. doing it in real time, maybe someone else can chime in on that?

That's how they make their money. If you own 100 shares of a fund, and you put in an order to sell it, they take a long time to fill that order because they are trying to find the trade that screws you out of the maximum amount of money. They are constantly in the market buying and selling. It is only at the end of the day do they assign sales to customers and they do it in such a way that screws you the most and makes them the most money. It takes some time to reconcile all that. NBBO does not apply when dealing with these funds. And if they cant screw you they will just take another day to "process your transaction". (Up to 3 days.) That gives them 3 chances to extort the maximum amount from you. Usually we're only talking a couple tenths of a percent, but the more volatile the market, the more they can make off you. If the market is regularly going up and down 2% intraday, then they can and will make 2% off you. You will get the lowest absolute price when you sell, and you will pay the highest absolute price when you buy.

 

[holden j caufield]

Anyone have any insight on Stratasyss SSYS the 3D printing company. They are down 30% today and I'm thinking about taking a gamble on a technology that will be very prevalent and probably change manufacturing and in a few years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Got stopped out of ADXS 9.50.

Did not buy GRPN yet.

Total luck, bought 200 shares of CSIQ prior to close last night, up $5 today, sold for $1000 profit. Thank God!