***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[OutHouse]

Looks like Scottrade will let you buy mutual funds from other companies since they don't seem to carry their own.

I am a big fan of the Vanguard funds since they have the lowest expense ratios.
If you want to set it and forget it until you retire you can consider the targeted retirement fund. It is well diversifed with US stocks, international stocks, US bonds and international bonds. It will rebalance over time by buying more bonds as you get closer to retirement. It has an expense ratio of only 0.18%.

This one is for if you will retire around 2045.

http://research.scottrade.com/qnr/Public/MutualFunds/Summary?symbol=VTIVX

Thank you.

 

[sm625]

Alright, so apple did not close the week below 570, but the 570 target was only an eyeball read of the chart. As it turns out, even though it closed at 585, it still generated the bearish weekly closing pattern I was looking for. My short term target is 547, to be hit by May 23.

 

[KB]

Bull Market continues! S&P hits intraday record of 1900. By 2015 we may see S&P at 2000. If we ever see repatriation taxes lowered to combat companies from going overseas, we may see 2100 soon.

For those who think everything is overpriced, there is still some value out there if you are willing to take some risk.
Some banks are still cheap:
C, BAC They should pop when the Fed accepts their capital plans, Both are below book value
Regional banks should grow if we see housing grow. Rents are growing faster than housing prices in some areas so buying is looking better; however we have been waiting forever for buyers to materialize, so it is risky.

The offshore drillers are cheap.
I like NE, ESV but SDRL and RIG are also cheap. I don't think fracking will be enough and we still need offshore.

Carmakers are cheap and well off their highs
GM, F, TM sport low forward P/Es and rising dividends. GMs ignition issue won't hurt them forever.


Russia is cheap
RSX is a Russian ETF that is a bargain, but you need a strong stomach and a long look. Sanctions may hurt in the short term but Russia cant be counted out forever.

Some other ones I like are
KBR - they are near 52-week lows and all they need to turn it around is one big LNG project announcement. If the US is to become an LNG exporter they should get a shot. The company has almost no debt, and lots of cash, so hopefully they use it wisely
SPLS - I think staples will continue to survive, focused on business procurement. AMZN may be big but there is room for others, plus you get a nice dividend.


Long KBR, SPLS and BAC. The rest I am watching.

 

[JEDI]

you don't like Orig (deep sea driller)?
52week low

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Oil and NG gas stocks are cheap indeed. Probably half my money is in that area. (SD, XCO, PWE)

Some money in RFP, BBRY and some in ZINC.

All undervalued. One is somewhat speculative, but most people can't think beyond the consumer market.

 

[KB]

you don't like Orig (deep sea driller)?
52week low

There are a lot of drillers and they are all cheap. RDC and DO are also cheap.

ORIG seems like a good company with plenty of cash on hand, a new dividend policy, and 50% of their rigs are booked for many years.

 

[sm625]

Long SPY May 30 189 calls @ 74 cents.

 

[JTsyo]

There are a lot of drillers and they are all cheap. RDC and DO are also cheap.

ORIG seems like a good company with plenty of cash on hand, a new dividend policy, and 50% of their rigs are booked for many years.

I see they are owed by DRYS who might be going into bankruptcy, would that have any effect on ORIG?

 

[JEDI]

I see they are owed by DRYS who might be going into bankruptcy, would that have any effect on ORIG?

lol.. Dry's isn't going bankrupt anytime soon. they own like 60% of Orig.
Dry's has like $1B debt, but it's stake in Orig is worth $1.1B.

worse case scenario, Dry's sell Orig.

edit:
total valuation of Dry's is less than their stake in Orig?!
WTF??

am I reading the #s wrong?!

 

[brianmanahan]

Alright, so apple did not close the week below 570, but the 570 target was only an eyeball read of the chart. As it turns out, even though it closed at 585, it still generated the bearish weekly closing pattern I was looking for. My short term target is 547, to be hit by May 23.

lol, you got 4 days left for this %9 drop that your charts are calling for

 

[Scarpozzi]

Thank you.

I'm in a few of those retire whatever year funds in my 401k and 401a accounts. My only gripe is that my mix of small/midcap and large growth/value funds all beat returns on those funds. I understand they probably have some stability and bond funds mixed in to ground the funds, but I wasn't impressed because I'm young and can bear some risk...so much so that I decided to divert my auto investments away from the blanket retirement funds and back into the typical mix.

I think those funds were created for a few reasons. They provide employers with some peace of mind that they can give the set it and forget it employees a way to invest without asking them to manage their own risk....but it also gives investment firms an opportunity to layer their commissions by having mutual funds that include many of their own ETFs to skim even more off the top. Kind of like multi-layer marketing...

 

[KB]

lol.. Dry's isn't going bankrupt anytime soon. they own like 60% of Orig.
Dry's has like $1B debt, but it's stake in Orig is worth $1.1B.

worse case scenario, Dry's sell Orig.

edit:
total valuation of Dry's is less than their stake in Orig?!
WTF??

am I reading the #s wrong?!

You are confusing Market Cap with Book value.
Market cap is total # of shares * share price = ~1.25 billion.
Book Value is value of company + investments - liabilities
DRYS is selling at half its book value.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DRYS+Key+Statistics

 

[KB]

I'm in a few of those retire whatever year funds in my 401k and 401a accounts. My only gripe is that my mix of small/midcap and large growth/value funds all beat returns on those funds. I understand they probably have some stability and bond funds mixed in to ground the funds, but I wasn't impressed because I'm young and can bear some risk...so much so that I decided to divert my auto investments away from the blanket retirement funds and back into the typical mix.

I think those funds were created for a few reasons. They provide employers with some peace of mind that they can give the set it and forget it employees a way to invest without asking them to manage their own risk....but it also gives investment firms an opportunity to layer their commissions by having mutual funds that include many of their own ETFs to skim even more off the top. Kind of like multi-layer marketing...

You are right, the bonds in the fund often act as a drag during a bull market, but they can be a parachute in a bear market. They also often have international exposure which means they have underperformed the bull US market. I expect the international will eventually catch up.
The mix funds are great for those that don't want to have to choose and rebalance their funds. Vanguards' target funds are particularly good because their Gross expense ratio is actually an average of the different ETFs it invests in. Typically mutual fund companies charge a decent premium for these target retirement funds (i.e Fidelity https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/315792424). Vanguard does not.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

lol.. Dry's isn't going bankrupt anytime soon. they own like 60% of Orig.
Dry's has like $1B debt, but it's stake in Orig is worth $1.1B.

worse case scenario, Dry's sell Orig.

edit:
total valuation of Dry's is less than their stake in Orig?!
WTF??

am I reading the #s wrong?!

Is any of that $1B in debt convertible debt? that would effect valuation.

 

[richardycc]

bought some MNKD August 7 calls...I love binary event stocks.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I've been hearing a lot about a possible recession coming.

Now I see more evidence. Mohnish Pabrai loaded up on Berskshire last quarter. He said he does this (years ago) because it is better than a cash equivalent that he likes to put his money into when things look dire.

I'm starting to think about getting more into cash. Maybe even doing a BRK investment.

 

[jpiniero]

I've been hearing a lot about a possible recession coming.

Now I see more evidence. Mohnish Pabrai loaded up on Berskshire last quarter. He said he does this (years ago) because it is better than a cash equivalent that he likes to put his money into when things look dire.

I'm starting to think about getting more into cash. Maybe even doing a BRK investment.

I looked at the chart and it doesn't look like Berkshire did any better than the market during the 2008 meltdown. 190k is an awful lot to gamble on esp at this point.

 

[brianmanahan]

I looked at the chart and it doesn't look like Berkshire did any better than the market during the 2008 meltdown. 190k is an awful lot to gamble on esp at this point.

lol, just buy brk.b

not that i would recommend buying berkshire to protect from a recession. dropped %35 in 08/09.

 

[JTsyo]

There are a lot of drillers and they are all cheap. RDC and DO are also cheap.

ORIG seems like a good company with plenty of cash on hand, a new dividend policy, and 50% of their rigs are booked for many years.

RIG pushed up their dividend to over 7%.

 

[sm625]

Closing out the SPY calls @ 1.80. As for the AAPL trade, I'm just going to sit on it for a while until I get the time to examine the potential patterns that could form over the next few months. Also, I'm showing a high probability of a sharp broad market correction beginning next week, targetting 1825 on the $SPX, with very little support at that level. Could easily fall all the way to 1700 in two weeks. If it does it will surely bail out the AAPL trade, so I am going to give it some time to allow for that possibility.

 

[flunky nassau]

My 2 year old son has been receiving a lot of gift money from family & friends so far (~$800).

I want to put it into a stock so that when he turns like 10 or so, I'll show him the list of everyone who's given him money & how much. Then I'll show him his money in the brokerage account & how much it's worth. Hopefully this will spark in him an interest in personal finance & saving for the future. I thought this would be a great introduction to learning about money management. It would probably all go over his head if he didn't actually have his own money. Hopefully seeing the money grow will deter him from wanting to withdraw it.

Can anyone recommend a stock that they think will be around & relevant in 10 years that will most likely grow & not be too volatile? I'm thinking something along the lines of Microsoft, GE, Intel, Costco?

 

[brianmanahan]

As for the AAPL trade, I'm just going to sit on it for a while until I get the time to examine the potential patterns that could form over the next few months

good luck w/ that

 

[bookem dano]

Can anyone recommend a stock that they think will be around & relevant in 10 years that will most likely grow & not be too volatile? I'm thinking something along the lines of Microsoft, GE, Intel, Costco?

GE - they will be splitting off their financial arm at some point in the next year, shares you buy today will get part of that spin off when it happens.

Intel/Microsoft I wouldn't gamble on.

PG or JNJ is worth a gamble but I like JNJ better. In the dip of 2008 and 09 everything tanked but these retained a little better. From 11/07 to 03/09 the DOW was -50, JNJ was -25 and PG was -35.

Scottrade has a flexible reinvestment option that allows all or a portion of your dividends to be reinvested into stocks/funds you own without having to pay a commission for the purchase like you would have to if you did it yourself. I just started using this option in my standard and roth ira accounts. The purchases can be set up monthly or quarterly.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

My 2 year old son has been receiving a lot of gift money from family & friends so far (~$800).

I want to put it into a stock so that when he turns like 10 or so, I'll show him the list of everyone who's given him money & how much. Then I'll show him his money in the brokerage account & how much it's worth. Hopefully this will spark in him an interest in personal finance & saving for the future. I thought this would be a great introduction to learning about money management. It would probably all go over his head if he didn't actually have his own money. Hopefully seeing the money grow will deter him from wanting to withdraw it.

Can anyone recommend a stock that they think will be around & relevant in 10 years that will most likely grow & not be too volatile? I'm thinking something along the lines of Microsoft, GE, Intel, Costco?

No brainers:
JNJ
BRK
FFH


You could just do BRK and FFH and get JNJ indirectly through BRK.

 

[flunky nassau]

JNJ looks like a rock. That will do. Thanks for the input.