***Official*** 2013 Stock Market Thread

[brandonb]

Took my first stock trading loss today when a stop-loss order occurred on one of my stocks. Only out $80 but my perfect streak is gone. heh. Still up $500+ in the last 2 months (since I started) with only a few thousand in the market. My return is about 8% at the moment.

 

[Noirish]

This one is going Ch 11.

Called it!

 

[mshan]

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. budget negotiators are near a deal in which Democrats would accept fresh revenue from user fees and Republicans would agree to more federal spending, steps that could avoid another government shutdown next year, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday. Instead of ending some corporate tax breaks, as Democrats prefer, revenue would come from raising user fees including for airline passengers. Republicans would have to accept higher spending levels than slated under current law, according to congressional aides, the report said. The emerging deal gives them a framework to reach an agreement on government spending -- either by the budget panel's Dec. 13 deadline or before federal spending expires Jan. 15, the report added. The news gave a bit of a lift to U.S. stocks."


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/federal-budget-deal-close-report-says-2013-12-04?siteid=yhoof2

ADP:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000222995

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...ior-months-revised-higher-reviving-tapering-f

Employed vs. Unemployed:

- http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000223398

- http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000223633 (someone else pointed out that a more accurate take on rate of new home sales is probably 5% year over year growth)

 

[Hugo Drax]

Took my first stock trading loss today when a stop-loss order occurred on one of my stocks. Only out $80 but my perfect streak is gone. heh. Still up $500+ in the last 2 months (since I started) with only a few thousand in the market. My return is about 8% at the moment.

8% return on what? 1000 USD, 2500 USD, 5000 USD 10000 USD, 100000 USD, 500000 USD 1000000 USD???

 

[brandonb]

About $5000. I'd have to load the website to know for sure. I put money in at different times so it wasn't a lump sum.

That said stop orders are a life saver. Waiting for my sell to settle before trading again. I have no positions at the moment.

 

[Mermaidman]

Took my first stock trading loss today when a stop-loss order occurred on one of my stocks. Only out $80 but my perfect streak is gone. heh. Still up $500+ in the last 2 months (since I started) with only a few thousand in the market. My return is about 8% at the moment.

8% return on what? 1000 USD, 2500 USD, 5000 USD 10000 USD, 100000 USD, 500000 USD 1000000 USD???

8%=$500

 

[Mermaidman]

Is China Mobile deal already priced into AAPL? Or will AAPL rise tomorrow?

 

[mshan]

Labor Force Participation Rate:

"i have a question for you about the labor force situation, in particular the participation rate. it's been the focus of a lot of attention because it's been declining significantly until recently. i suspect you and your fed colleagues have done some analysis of all that. my question is how much of that is cyclical as opposed to how much of it is demographic related? i think a large portion of it is demographic related in some sense. we had research done here at the philadelphia fed just recently who looked at microdata to look at the participation rate in the last 12 to 18 months and they found virtually the entire drop in the last year has been concentrated in people moving to retirement. people who move into retirement, once they move into retirement, they don't tend to come back."

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000224560

Another interesting quote (slip of the tongue?) from same video clip:

"last time you were here, you were advocating the notion of putting a cap on the amount of quantitative easing that was out there. i still think it's a good way to wind down the program. what we've learned is this ability for us to fine tune our purchases is very difficult to do. as desirables that may be in a conceptual sense, the difficulty in september was we couldn't even move the flow pace at all. i think it's just very difficult. so i think we need to go back to where we were in the earlier rounds of qe where we set a total amount and then we executed that amount, we bought that purchase and then we stopped. and then we can reevaluate -- maybe we can get congress to vote on whether we raise the ceiling total and get them involved. we'll let the fed start using participation rate. get a monetary cliff going. we don't need anymore of this stuff."

(saw lots of articles over at Zerohedge about Stock vs. Flow (quantitative easing), and others about whether Fed was in a quagmire trying to exit QE. Comments on tv about this mornings jobs report seem to indicate a goldilocks type report (not too hot, not too cold, just right), and Jeff Cox apparently said some trader told him he thought market was now giving permission for Fed to taper sometime early near year (market finally accepting the taper is not tightening argument?)

(when taper talk started in summer, Art Cashin was mentioning that rate of QE was greater than nominal $85 billion / month, because of reinvestment of dividends and maturing principal. And Ben Bernanke, IIRC, explicitly stated in press conference after Septemter meeting, that Fed was continuing to reinvest dividends and maturing principal. Didn't pay much attention to Fed's decision at October meeting (no press conference), so we don't know what current status of reinvestment of dividends and maturing principal is.)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101252720

So was the September non-taper really because of perceived economic weakness in U. S., or fear of another uncontrolled and rapid rate spike over and above 3%, or threats to global financial stability in emerging markets, or just possibility of wing-nut anarchists in Congress trying to drive economy off a cliff, yet again (simply to gain traction in next year's mid-term elections)?

Unemployment Rates by Level of Education Attained: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm

U-6: http://www.economonitor.com/dolanec...e-broad-unemployment-rate-u-6-really-tell-us/

 

[mshan]

So called Fed Whispherer Jon Hilsenrath seems to be hinting that taper is going to start at January 2014 meeting: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000224455

And this guy ( http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000224683) thinks bond market is already starting to price in eventual taper in orderly manner, vs. what happened this summer when taper talk started (though PBOC threw a curve ball at us then, too):



SHIBOR (Chinese Curveball):

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000176107 vs.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000178429)

 

[Michael]

It is that time of year again - major financial magazines are publishing their "2014 picks".

Here is the list from Barrons for 2014:

Barrick Gold
Canadian Natural Resources
Citigroup
Deere
General Motors
Intel
MetLife
Nestlé
Simon Properties
US Airways Group

Anyone have any thoughts on it? These are all stocks that have lower than average valuation metrics that may be able to close that gap in 2014 (with the exception of Nestle which looks like it has higher market valuation metrics).

I will have a low 7 figure of cash to invest at year-end, so I am starting to look carefully for ideas. US markets plus Singapore and HK are all possible places I can invest.

Michael

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Regarding Deere which I would love to own one day. Market cap is $32B. If you back all of total equity out of the Market Cap you have $22B. FCF peaked for them in 2007 at about $1.2B. That is an 18.3 FCF multiple. No thanks.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) though ... maybe.

Cheap stocks are hard to come by. I'd take SD over any one of the stocks mentioned. My last purchase was ZINC which is a little cheap and worth investigation.

 

[mshan]

Budget deal reached (government shutdown in January averted (House and Senate still have to formally vote); debt ceiling debate in February still unsettled)

Paul Ryan and Patti Murray supposed to speak at 6 PM (EST)

 

[JTsyo]

ahh stock market, you so crazy. So when the Fed considered taper, the market dropped. But now that the taper is going to happen, it goes up.

 

[Blackjack200]

I know, it's like a lightbulb went off in their heads. "Oh wait, they're tapering because the economy is going better... OMG BUYBUYBUYBUYUBY!!!!!!!!11111one"

 

[Imp]

Ah man, I haven't even looked at my stocks yet... Lot of preferred ETFs. Hope they oversold when the tapering was first hinted months ago. Otherwise, I'm going to touch myself.

 

[jpiniero]

Maybe they were expecting a bigger taper?

 

[jessieqwert]

amzn broke $400. feels like I'm sitting on a timebomb

 

[Michael]

I bought shares in the 10 companies I posted about not long after I made the post (about $15K each one, so about $150K). Here are my entry numbers and Friday's close

Barrick Gold 16.05 / 16.58
Canadian Natural Resources 32.63 / 33.16
Citigroup 52.05 / 52.21
Deere 87.32 / 90.08
General Motors 40.85 / 40.99
Intel 24.95 / 25.05
MetLife 51.33 / 53.12
Nestlé 73.72 / 72.38
Simon Properties 152.47 / 154.71
US Airways Group (AAL) 25.2 / 26.33

I will try and post every month or so and compare these picks vs. the general market. So far 9/10 are up from my purchase price.

Michael

 

[Sho'Nuff]

According to my latest statement the portfolio in one of my investment accounts is up ~$59,000 this year, or +18%.

Portfolio breakdown of that account is as follows:

Large-Cap Growth 21.94%
Large-Cap Blend 21.23%
Moderate Allocation 16.62%
World Stock 11.21%
Large-Cap Value 10.48%
Foreign Large-Cap Blend 9.94%
Emerging Markets 5.53%
Intermediate-Term Bond 2.37%
Sector Fund .65%
Cash and Equivalents .04%
100.00%


All of the money in that account is in mutual funds (primarily american and vanguard funds).

 

[Hugo Drax]

I bought shares in the 10 companies I posted about not long after I made the post (about $15K each one, so about $150K). Here are my entry numbers and Friday's close

Barrick Gold 16.05 / 16.58
Canadian Natural Resources 32.63 / 33.16
Citigroup 52.05 / 52.21
Deere 87.32 / 90.08
General Motors 40.85 / 40.99
Intel 24.95 / 25.05
MetLife 51.33 / 53.12
Nestlé 73.72 / 72.38
Simon Properties 152.47 / 154.71
US Airways Group (AAL) 25.2 / 26.33

I will try and post every month or so and compare these picks vs. the general market. So far 9/10 are up from my purchase price.

Michael

Save yourself the time and trouble and just stick to SPY and IWM allocations.

You will underperform the market over time

 

[Michael]

Hugo - I own a lot of SPY already and the majority of my portfolio is in ETFs. However, in the few individual stocks I have owned I have a few that vastly outperformed the market this year.

So a blanket statement that I will underperform the market is in accurate.

The amount I invested is not going to make or break my year next year, so I will try these ten stocks and see while keeping to my general allocation which is not far off your advice.

Michael

 

[Imp]

Boo ya, underperformed the "market" by 3-5 times this year... Testament to self-investing!

 

[brianmanahan]

Boo ya, underperformed the "market" by 3-5 times this year... Testament to self-investing!

umm

 

[Engineer]

I know this thread is typically about individual stocks (of which I own none) but does anyone else fell like the market is just riding too high and ready to pop (down)? I rode the drop from 2007-2010 down 64% on my funds (and it hurt like hell). I guess I'm just nervous and don't want to do that again (not that I think it will go down 64%....just don't like big drops).

Tempted to just unwind but I know that I should just keep on chugging along....*sigh*

 

[Imp]

Market does seem high, but I thought it seemed high back when the DOW was 11k, and here we are now at 16k?

If it does crash, I've left a significant "bail out" chunk of money in crap savings accounts all ready to go in when it hits bottom. This part helps me sleep at night?