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***Official*** 2013 Stock Market Thread

Page 26 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
quick question... is this a good year to take long term profits (~60k worth which will bring married filing jointly adjusted gross income to ~290k or will obamacare taxes be repealed/lowered??

last year i've ignored articles which advised to take long term gain profits. still don't know if that was wise or not

thanks in advance!
 
I've been watching stocks, because in all honesty I can't wait to start investing myself - but if I had to take a stab at action right now: I would totally jump ship right now. This is going to be one of the worst holiday seasons of all-time.
 
If your gonna jump in. Avoid picking single stocks. Stick with SPY and IWM.

You get exposure to the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. Which gives you a nice diversification.

You can hedge by by using options, to manage your risk.

Www.optionseducation.org
Is a great place to learn about options. Free classes and information, including video podcasts.
 
Hugo Drax said:
99% of people need to stop trying to pick stocks and just buy SPY and/or IWM and be done with it.
Click to expand...

This is sound advice, and it what I tell everyone to do when they ask my advice. But its not very fun. Buying individual stocks is a gamble and you should only do so if you enjoy gambling.

My only complaint about SPY and IWM is that their dividend ratios are < 2%. So in a sideways market you get less yield than a 10-year treasury. I would add that it may be a good idea to add some other ETFs for international diversification.
 
KB said:
This is sound advice, and it what I tell everyone to do when they ask my advice. But its not very fun. Buying individual stocks is a gamble and you should only do so if you enjoy gambling.

My only complaint about SPY and IWM is that their dividend ratios are < 2%. So in a sideways market you get less yield than a 10-year treasury. I would add that it may be a good idea to add some other ETFs for international diversification.
Click to expand...

on a sideways market OTM calls can provide additional income on the underlying. So you at least get paid for holding a position in addition to the dividend.

OTM calls will still give you the opportunity for capital appreciation (up to the strike price of course. In addition to income.

There are many things you can do with the premium, hold on to it, use it to DCA when the ETF goes down in price, use it as part of your cash holding when going short a put to acquire more stock or use it to go long a put and provide a price floor on your position(ie collar) etc..

IF you want to Gamble, to to Las Vegas. At least you will have much more fun than trying to gamble stocks and lose money sitting in your home.
 
If I wanted Index funds I would just put more in my 401...

If I go into stocks - it will be to find the next Tesla to bank on. The difference is, it's a skill game much like poker. It's not a lottery ticket, it has skills behind it to make a difference in your odds.
 
I would have been so up in my investments if I took action about 6 months ago... I kept thinking the market was going to drop but nope....
 
s0me0nesmind1 said:
If I wanted Index funds I would just put more in my 401...

If I go into stocks - it will be to find the next Tesla to bank on. The difference is, it's a skill game much like poker. It's not a lottery ticket, it has skills behind it to make a difference in your odds.
Click to expand...

but there is still very much of a lottery component to picking an individual company, especially a small cap. a so-so company can unexpectedly get super lucky and pop, and a diamond in the rough company can have everything go against it and fail.
 
Manish Pabrai keeps loading up on HORSEHEAD HOLDING CORP (ticker: ZINC). Anyone know why?

Looking at hte numbers, it doesn't look cheap. Maybe slightly cheap but nothing that makes my eyes agap open. So it is probably some kind of longer term play. Whcih means digging.
 
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s0me0nesmind1 said:
If I wanted Index funds I would just put more in my 401...

If I go into stocks - it will be to find the next Tesla to bank on. The difference is, it's a skill game much like poker. It's not a lottery ticket, it has skills behind it to make a difference in your odds.
Click to expand...

But you do not have the skills. So you will at best underperform the index, at worst lose your money.
 
Read up on ZINC. It's pretty obvious why he is buying. There is a new moreefficient plant coming online. It is going to provide efficiency gains and once complete, cap ex is going to plummet. Alot of capex has gone into the plant over the last few years. FCF should quickly break $100m. Not bad for a comapny with a sub $1B market cap. I'm buying.
 
This guy thinks 10 year rates are capped around 3.5% as long as Fed is anchoring short end around 0%: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000220459

Perma-bull Tom Lee doesn't see next bear market until recession occurs (typically monetary tightening or commodity shock, preceded by an inverted yield curve): http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000217359





Kind of sounds like Tom Lee is saying dividend growth (vs. high current dividend yield in defensive industries).

Liz Ann Sonders (Charles Schwab) said pensions and insurance companies, etc. have been heavily overweight alternatives (hedge funds, etc), which have been trailing stocks, and great rotation may these institiutions reallocating capital (dividend growth stocks as bond proxies in rising rate environment with some, though not spectacular, economic growth?)
 
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My short from last week is probably not going hit this week before the options expire. But I am now extremely bearish, instead of just bearish. Opening a new short position, SPY Dec 21 puts @ $1.00. I am actually looking to make a major top call. I cannot call it yet, but many of the pieces are in place for it. (Last time I made a top call was May 2011.)
 
eww I didnt list the strike price? They were the $180 puts. My sell target(s) for SPY is 175.3 next week, and/or 177.5 this week.
 
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I haven't been paying attention, but was Henry Blodget right about AMZN after all? LOL

Not sure how they have a future P/E of only 143, when they hardly have any net profit to show for.
 
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