brianmanahan
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2006
- 24,598
- 5,996
- 136
SunnyD
Belgian Waffler
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 67
- 91
Someone with Rambus? Someone at work is investing in AMD and I don't know what to tell him. I looked at AMDs numbers and it doesn't look good at all.
Anyway...
I've taken losses before. I've been investing for over 10 years now. Remember Washington Mutual? Ya ..... I gave up at one point but lost some serious change on it. Truth be told, selling was the best thing I ever did. I slept very well that night.
I don't careabout losses anymore. It's just part of investing.
Luckily I was on vacation during the BBRY release. So I did not pay too much attention to it. So when Monday came I was over it already. Thing is, it's 5 days later. I am not thinking emotionally at all. And I keep thinking about what is coming down the pipe for BBRY. Q5, Aristo, 2 unnamed devices. Rumors are that a full screen slider is coming down the pipe. And a potential playbook.
The slider rumor is due to a patent that hints at a BB10 phones with this form factor:
http://www.officemax.com/technology/...i_sku=23886467
Then there is BES. 1 million phones managed brings $100m in revenues to Blackberry each year.
BBRY just had a $200 million FCF quarter. Due to the tax rebate issue, next quarter won't be that high. It probably will be negative. But as BES starts to monetize itself, and BB10 sales continue, things should get better.
The future is not as bright as once though but it is far from over.
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AMD.....
It's a long...long...long shot to me. Get it now and hold for awhile. There's gotta be better options out there now, but if you've been in it and want to stay with it then it's a slightly different story.
Why it's good...xbox1 and PS4 and wii all use their tech. I think their graphics line is solid and improving. They assumed a lot of debt awhile ago and it's slowly trickling off.
Why it's bad....the wii U didn't help them out much, but since they have stuff in both the others I'm not selling yet. I invested some where I have doubled my investment, other account not so good.
Problem with CPU makers is the tablets are taking their necessity away and computer upgrades are slowing.
I'm not at the give up on it point, but I'm cautious on adding more to it.
It's a long...long...long shot to me. Get it now and hold for awhile. There's gotta be better options out there now, but if you've been in it and want to stay with it then it's a slightly different story.
Why it's good...xbox1 and PS4 and wii all use their tech. I think their graphics line is solid and improving. They assumed a lot of debt awhile ago and it's slowly trickling off.
Why it's bad....the wii U didn't help them out much, but since they have stuff in both the others I'm not selling yet. I invested some where I have doubled my investment, other account not so good.
Problem with CPU makers is the tablets are taking their necessity away and computer upgrades are slowing.
I'm not at the give up on it point, but I'm cautious on adding more to it.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 67
- 91
The thing with AMD is that you have to take the expected sales of these chips and figure out how that translates into FCF.
Tablets are not the risk. People laughed at Thorsten Heins (BBRY) when he said the tablet is going to be dead in 5 years. That's not exactly what he meant. Look around your house. Laptop, tablet, smart phone, etc. How much did you pay for all that. How powerful is a modern ssmartphone compared to a laptop from 2 years ago?
People no longer need more power for home use. I'm talking typcial use case, not hardcore gamers.
BBRYs plan is to make your smartphone a thin client (some are calling it the root device). And you will then attach keyboards, mouses, etc to it along with tablet like devices. The thing is, the power is in the phone, not the "tablet". You don't need a $600 iPad. You need a $150 dumb tablet. I thought there were already standards for wireless HDMI but Google failed me. But if you can stream HD video over wifi and use bluetooth to send touch events, there is no need for storage, CPUs, GPUs, RAM, etc on your tablet.
Even if BBRY is not the winner in M2M, the days of dedicated devices are numbered. And if chip makers are not in smart phones, it could be to their end.
Tablets are not the risk. People laughed at Thorsten Heins (BBRY) when he said the tablet is going to be dead in 5 years. That's not exactly what he meant. Look around your house. Laptop, tablet, smart phone, etc. How much did you pay for all that. How powerful is a modern ssmartphone compared to a laptop from 2 years ago?
People no longer need more power for home use. I'm talking typcial use case, not hardcore gamers.
BBRYs plan is to make your smartphone a thin client (some are calling it the root device). And you will then attach keyboards, mouses, etc to it along with tablet like devices. The thing is, the power is in the phone, not the "tablet". You don't need a $600 iPad. You need a $150 dumb tablet. I thought there were already standards for wireless HDMI but Google failed me. But if you can stream HD video over wifi and use bluetooth to send touch events, there is no need for storage, CPUs, GPUs, RAM, etc on your tablet.
Even if BBRY is not the winner in M2M, the days of dedicated devices are numbered. And if chip makers are not in smart phones, it could be to their end.
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Louis Yamada's technical take (S&P 500, 10 year Treasury yield, USD, Gold): http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000180961
1550 is the same number I've seen a few other (fundamental) strategists mention as their quasi line in the sand, so definitive break below that might portend a significantly more ominious tone for market going forward.
(Haven't heard much about next downside target with definitive breach below 1550, but I do remember that uber perma-bull (JP Morgan's Thomas Lee) calling for temporary pullback to 1400 - 1450 much earlier this year (that pull back never happened), so perhaps that is where we could conceivably head if newsflow became really, really, really bad going forward (?))
1550 is the same number I've seen a few other (fundamental) strategists mention as their quasi line in the sand, so definitive break below that might portend a significantly more ominious tone for market going forward.
(Haven't heard much about next downside target with definitive breach below 1550, but I do remember that uber perma-bull (JP Morgan's Thomas Lee) calling for temporary pullback to 1400 - 1450 much earlier this year (that pull back never happened), so perhaps that is where we could conceivably head if newsflow became really, really, really bad going forward (?))
My guess is that when it was selling at $2, it probably seriously looked like it could go to zero (and overall market was probably not doing well then), so I wouldn't kick yourself too hard.
Heck, wasn't there alot of talk about HP going out of business (or needing to be broken up) before stock price has surged up and HP more comfortably in it's 5 year turnaround (Dell was talked about being as safer or further along in it's own 5 year turnaround end of last year, IIRC).
Housing stocks have had great run, but if you bought at absolute bottom, it probably still looked like they could still well go to zero at the time:
September / October 2011 looked like this: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/recent/the_cuckoos_nest-1578737.html & http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000058679
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IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 67
- 91
Yeah, but then look at AAPL last year...
I think Priceline is doing real well, but I remember hearing that William Shatner sold alot of his shares near bottom.
Honestly, with world falling apart like it seemed to be just a few years ago, all you can fall back on, at least to me, is dollar cost averaging into some really high quality investments for long-term (e. g. VTSMX for decades holding period), or doing some judicious tax loss selling when true panic had set in like late 2008 / 2009 (since everything was being sold off without regard to quality or valuation, rotating out of poorer quality invesments into high quality ones that hopefully will have higher rate of return when market ultimately turns, plus harvesting tax losses too).
I remember Cam Hui talking about a Phoenix Strategy when speculating with potentially death spiral type stocks: http://www.investing.com/analysis/phoenix-strategy:-hold-your-nose-and-'rent'-the-junk-113833
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IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 67
- 91
Hi IHMJ2004:
I was referring to not selling some AAPL when it was getting very frothy last year.
Wasn't talking about valuation at all, just price action and riding out storm vs. locking in profits.
I was referring to not selling some AAPL when it was getting very frothy last year.
Wasn't talking about valuation at all, just price action and riding out storm vs. locking in profits.
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IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 67
- 91
Uh oh, Bernanke is going to open his mouth again tomorrow: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000183364
(Someone else a while back said Russell 2000 breaking definitively above 1000 mark was significant milestone because it was also significant historical goal post for few other indexes. Can't find video, just this article via Google search: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100873587)
(Someone else a while back said Russell 2000 breaking definitively above 1000 mark was significant milestone because it was also significant historical goal post for few other indexes. Can't find video, just this article via Google search: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100873587)
Yea, TSLA took a huge dive today. I wrote the august calls at 115 strike, so I have to hold my shares for now...
Mohamed El-Erian (PIMCO): http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000182381
And just a quick rewind on government macro-statistics vs. what company specific guidance is saying (last summer when retail sales were supposedly indicating an impeding double dip recession): http://www.cnbc.com/id/48197346 (video clip lies, damn lies, and government statistics...) There is an obvious (and expected at beginning of year) soft patch in economy right now, because of sequester, expiration of payroll tax holiday (particularly affects low end consumer that didn't have alot of discretionary income to start with), and unexpectedly dramatic rise in interest rates / mortgage rates and gas prices, plus government furloughs which just went into affect in last week or so (1 day off per week, unpaid, for 11 weeks). Sequester headwinds supposed to weaken later this year.
Steve Liesman has also noted that there is a strange dichotomy between what GDP is suggesting and robust job hiring in recent months is saying, and that one has to converge to other over time. Perma-bull Joe LaVorna of Deutsche Bank has also said that payroll withholding taxes treasury is seeing are also more consistent with the more robust job growth recent employment reports are suggesting.
edit: Ben Bernake also referred to something called Gross Domestic Income (?) as perhaps a better proxy of growth than Gross Domestic Product when Q2 estimates come out.
And just a quick rewind on government macro-statistics vs. what company specific guidance is saying (last summer when retail sales were supposedly indicating an impeding double dip recession): http://www.cnbc.com/id/48197346 (video clip lies, damn lies, and government statistics...) There is an obvious (and expected at beginning of year) soft patch in economy right now, because of sequester, expiration of payroll tax holiday (particularly affects low end consumer that didn't have alot of discretionary income to start with), and unexpectedly dramatic rise in interest rates / mortgage rates and gas prices, plus government furloughs which just went into affect in last week or so (1 day off per week, unpaid, for 11 weeks). Sequester headwinds supposed to weaken later this year.
Steve Liesman has also noted that there is a strange dichotomy between what GDP is suggesting and robust job hiring in recent months is saying, and that one has to converge to other over time. Perma-bull Joe LaVorna of Deutsche Bank has also said that payroll withholding taxes treasury is seeing are also more consistent with the more robust job growth recent employment reports are suggesting.
edit: Ben Bernake also referred to something called Gross Domestic Income (?) as perhaps a better proxy of growth than Gross Domestic Product when Q2 estimates come out.
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Attic
Diamond Member
- Jan 9, 2010
- 4,282
- 2
- 76
Could sell the stock and buy the 110 calls.
Limit your downside in case it crashes through 80, but sill enjoy upside through 115.
Or you can keep the stock write the 100 calls and buy back the 115's to lock in more profit in case of a further sell off.
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