***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[zimu]

Nice jump on Friday post-earnings. Hope you cashed out in time.

Crashy crashy today. I love the market: what a bunch of bullshit. Non-stop rally from January to March after Greece got another bailout, but everyone knew they, and the rest of the continent was still completed f*cked and already in recession. Suddenly, "worries about Europe" are back.

i'm very worried about europe.

more worried about my dropping performance line though!

 

[Mermaidman]

Wow missed out on AMLN. 🙁

I had been watching it casually. So now that AMLN rejected the buyout offer by BMY, what's going to happen?

 

[Imp]

Wow, I actually finished the day up. Yay for buying oversold turd!

Hoochi mama:

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=NFLX&source=story_quote_link

 

[SSSnail]

NFLX ouch!

 

[Arachnotronic]

LOL!!!!!!!! Cya, ARMH.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Prem Watsa's ABH keeps dropping. Down to about $13. I might dollar cost average at $11 or $12.

Interesting looking at hte balance sheet. They have been paying down long term debt over the past few years. Today, LTD is about 6x nomralized FCF. If they can eliminate all debt, that would be awesome. Total equity is also growing, in part due to debt elimination.

 

[rcpratt]

Nice day for T and F.

 

[JTsyo]

What's up with nVidia? sub $13 now.

 

[Arachnotronic]

What's up with nVidia? sub $13 now.

I've been stalking that stock for a while and my best guess is that NVIDIA's getting dragged down because:

1. ARMH's guidance for the rest of the year was fairly soft, so given NVIDIA's whole "putting its eggs in the ARM basket" thing, of course NVIDIA will get hit.

2. Intel just released Ivy Bridge, which due to its "improved graphics" (lol), will continue to erode at NVIDIA's attach rate in notebooks/ultrabooks.

NVIDIA's a screaming buy here, and I plan on freeing up some funds today to initiate a position within the next day or two.

 

[Imp]

NVDA has been stupidly volatile for the past year and more that I remember. I have no faith in tech companies, so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[lothar]

What's up with nVidia? sub $13 now.

I expect it to go much lower.
Their Tegra 3 SoC isn't competitive on the market and they don't have many smartphone design wins. Only 1 product exists and it was released about 2 weeks ago.
Their Tegra 3 SoC for smartphones was only released 2 weeks ago and it will be completely outclassed by Qualcomm's S4 in a mere 2 weeks and Samsung's Exynos two months later or less.

They might as well give up in the smartphone market until their next SoC because their only hope is to compete in tablets.

If they're not careful, they could be the "RIMM" of the smartphone SoC market.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I expect it to go much lower.
Their Tegra 3 SoC isn't competitive on the market and they don't have many smartphone design wins. Only 1 product exists and it was released about 2 weeks ago.
Their Tegra 3 SoC for smartphones was only released 2 weeks ago and it will be completely outclassed by Qualcomm's S4 in a mere 2 weeks and Samsung's Exynos two months later or less.

They might as well give up in the smartphone market until their next SoC because their only hope is to compete in tablets.

If they're not careful, they could be the "RIMM" of the smartphone SoC market.

NVIDIA has a solid, solid shot of making it big in the smartphone SoC market if they up the graphics ante on their chips. It's pretty perplexing that their graphics on Tegra is outclassed by a lot of other stuff (including the Apple chips), but I suspect that NV's management team isn't stupid and realizes that this is really their chance at a competitive advantage.

Everyone uses more or less the same stuff on the CPU front in the ARM ecosystem (with QCOM being a notable exception).

Also on the topic of NVDA, does anybody remember when it was $26/share? Was this due to the Project Denver + ARMH hype?

In any case, I'd be a buyer at these levels, and I'd expect a short to medium term hold until it hits $15-$16.

 

[lothar]

Same stuff on the CPU front does not equal same performance.
Their SoC will be trounced by S4 in CPU processing tasks in 2 weeks and by Exynos in 2 months or less.
Working on the GPU of their SoC alone won't save them. In fact, GPU is the least of their problems because they are not ranked last there like they will be in CPU processing.

Oh, and they won't have LTE for a while.

 

[TheNinja]

Did anyone else buy AAPL prior to the earnings results? Yes, it was a gamble, but it looks like it may have paid off. I'll find out tomorrow morning after the market opens.

 

[goog40]

Wow, 47.4% gross margin. 35 million iPhones. This was the first quarter I was nervous about AAPL earnings. Looks like the fear was unfounded.

AAPL's guidance is extremely accurate (not the actual numbers, but the precision with which they underestimate), and it looks like they are expecting the next quarter to be more of the same.

 

[Imp]

Wow. Should have thrown my last bit into AAPL. Oh well...

 

[bookem dano]

nVidia....will that get a boost if the PS4 comes out using it?

It was used in the PS3 that debuted Nov 06 and had a nice increase and a 3:2 split in the following year.

 

[Imp]

So after the huge NFLX dump and weak outlook, anyone have the balls to play it up to next earnings?

If it's anything like last time, upward potential of 50% possible in 3 months.

 

[TheNinja]

Wow. Should have thrown my last bit into AAPL. Oh well...

I took a huge gamble and got 37 shares prior to earnings report. I actually got in I think on Monday around 580 and was crapping my pants at 560 prior to earnings. I'm happy at 610 for a nice little $1k profit (pretax 🙂 ) . Now the big question is, do I hang on to it and ride it up, or just take the profits for the week and call it good?

I've learned to almost do opposite of the bloggers and experts. They claim the AAPL sky is falling and that the stock will get killed after earnings...and it shoots up. Now they are all raising their target prices from $710 to $750, or $750 to $800. It makes me want to sell 🙂

 

[MaxFusion16]

I took a huge gamble and got 37 shares prior to earnings report. I actually got in I think on Monday around 580 and was crapping my pants at 560 prior to earnings. I'm happy at 610 for a nice little $1k profit (pretax 🙂 ) . Now the big question is, do I hang on to it and ride it up, or just take the profits for the week and call it good?

I've learned to almost do opposite of the bloggers and experts. They claim the AAPL sky is falling and that the stock will get killed after earnings...and it shoots up. Now they are all raising their target prices from $710 to $750, or $750 to $800. It makes me want to sell 🙂

hold, I expect AAPL to run up to the 700s soon.

 

[TheNinja]

hold, I expect AAPL to run up to the 700s soon.

Thanks. I probably will hold for now. It's just hilarious how fickle these analysts are. If you look at every single article between 4/15-4/24 they were all "Rotten Apple" or "Apple being peeled" about how Apple was down 12% and was going to continue to run way way down around $500-$520. Now today, every single article is saying Apple going to $750. There is another article were the guy is saying AAPL going to $1,111 in the next year.

I tend to think they'll do well. I haven't been over in some of the Asian countries and I hear they are worse than the US. But people go crazy for anything iPhone. When the new iPhone hits it's going to be just plain massive!!

 

[Imp]

I took a huge gamble and got 37 shares prior to earnings report. I actually got in I think on Monday around 580 and was crapping my pants at 560 prior to earnings. I'm happy at 610 for a nice little $1k profit (pretax 🙂 ) . Now the big question is, do I hang on to it and ride it up, or just take the profits for the week and call it good?

I've learned to almost do opposite of the bloggers and experts. They claim the AAPL sky is falling and that the stock will get killed after earnings...and it shoots up. Now they are all raising their target prices from $710 to $750, or $750 to $800. It makes me want to sell 🙂

I'd also say hold. It's almost guaranteed that AAPL will be on the way up for the next few days - all the sheep who bailed now want pack in after being wowed by earnings.

Will it hit $700? Possibly, just on momentum alone. Could it take a huge dump? Oh ya... Don't overexpose yourself and you'll be fine.

 

[rcpratt]

Out of T at $32.25...very happy with a quick two-week 6.8% gain, especially selling at a multi-year high.

 

[JTsyo]

GMCR finally returning to my bought price. Might bail before earnings if it climbs high enough though I expect earnings to be good.

 

[apac]

AMZN is up 14% in after hours on stronger-than-expected earnings. Congrats to all of you that bought at ~$180, I should have jumped in.

edited for accuracy.