***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[JTsyo]

Looks like we got in at the right time for today, moving back up at a steady pace. I'll probably hold to see if it gets past 200 again. What does the market think the price should be?

ahh $190 says Morgan Stanely

 

[Imp]

MSFT up 4% today while AAPL and GOOG are flat-ish. Huh?

And wow, just realized if I day trade, I should be doing AAPL, not BAC. More room for error and less risky.

 

[zimu]

Looks like we got in at the right time for today, moving back up at a steady pace. I'll probably hold to see if it gets past 200 again. What does the market think the price should be?

ahh $190 says Morgan Stanely

FT: 16 analysts say buy, 9 outperform, 14 hold.
median target price = 220, high = 250.

i think 200 is a good sell point, that's what I'm gearing for.

 

[Arachnotronic]

AMAT earnings significantly beat!

 

[Pliablemoose]

Bought APPL back at $499 🙂

Go go volatility...

 

[KB]

Damn I can't believe the rally is still going. It may continue further once the Greece bailout is approved, which has me buying back in. I hate buying back in when its so high, but sitting on money is harder than risking it in the market with interest rates so low.
Picked up Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) at 31.00. It was $47 earier in the year and I think the Costa Concordia was overblown. High fuel prices are a concern, but I have some oil stocks to hedge those bets.

 

[hiromizu]

MSFT up 4% today while AAPL and GOOG are flat-ish. Huh?

And wow, just realized if I day trade, I should be doing AAPL, not BAC. More room for error and less risky.

The only way I day trade now is by betting a huge amount on margin on a highly liquid stock or ETF with a very low beta and/or buy tiny bits of calls or puts on IWM as hedge. It's been more successful than day trading smaller cap, lower volume stocks it has proven to me that it's hard to make a profit over time. Each time I realize the simple fact that a mere mortal like myself could make a sh*tload more buy buying, holding and reinvesting dividends in MO and the likes and thinking the big picture. I don't know any successful day traders who can sustain useable income over any meaningful period of time.

 

[Imp]

Damn. Daytrading GOOG not going so well. Advance missed by sell limit-price by ten cents, then "tanked". Slowly edging up.

Woe is me, I might lose $50...

The only way I day trade now is by betting a huge amount on margin on a highly liquid stock or ETF with a very low beta and/or buy tiny bits of calls or puts on IWM as hedge. It's been more successful than day trading smaller cap, lower volume stocks it has proven to me that it's hard to make a profit over time. Each time I realize the simple fact that a mere mortal like myself could make a sh*tload more buy buying, holding and reinvesting dividends in MO and the likes and thinking the big picture. I don't know any successful day traders who can sustain useable income over any meaningful period of time.

Ya, daytrading is stupid, but I've just been so bored sitting on 80+% cash. When I started gambling, I mean trading/investing, I told myself to never daytrade... I'm only screwing with large caps that I think are a "value" right now (i.e. they will go back up eventually).

 

[hiromizu]

Damn. Daytrading GOOG not going so well. Advance missed by sell limit-price by ten cents, then "tanked". Slowly edging up.

Woe is me, I might lose $50...

Ya, daytrading is stupid, but I've just been so bored sitting on 80+% cash. When I started gambling, I mean trading/investing, I told myself to never daytrade... I'm only screwing with large caps that I think are a "value" right now (i.e. they will go back up eventually).

I think if you're going to screw around and day trade any stocks, value stocks are probably the worst ones to trade as the premise of a value stock is that 'the market' is ignoring the intrinsic value of the stock and depressing it to abnormally low prices which means for a long period of time, you will not likely to see any meaningful price action.

I think there's a lot of fear right now caused by the EU crisis and it has pushed many quality stocks down to reasonable prices although there is definitely potential for another downturn should the EU get out of hand or if we start another major military conflict in the middle east.

On the domestic economics front, the Fed printed a lot of money which will trickle down, inflate certain asset classes and cause overall inflation over the long term while some asset classes namely housing will probably decline as historically low interest rates and stimulus still fail to provide incentives to buy at current prices.

In economics they say it takes about 9 years for the full effect of such measures to take place. It's been almost halfway through that since the first recent QE of 2008 and there was a second one in 2010. A third one may potentially happen - is this shit planned to happen every 2 years?? Gold commodity prices soared to ridiculous levels and yet I see no end to it for now although the 'healthy market' definitely wants to see some deleveraging as they see their cash savings value diminish..funny enough they are the ones who have the power to improve things but are suffering in anxiety due to high prices caused by a lot of things including inconsiderate fiscal and monetary policies.

Funny thing is despite gold commodity prices, mining stocks hasn't done as well..hmm. I wonder if it's worth venturing into something like GDX?

It's a big fucking cycle of shit and I'm going crazy thinking about this D:

 

[Imp]

Ok, lost $90. Made $60 earlier in the week. That was totally all worth it.... not. Broker made $60, good for them. Calling it a "day"...


Nothing's moving... Very depressing.

 

[Arachnotronic]

AMAT was up >$14 pre-market, but I hung on...it closed below yesterday's close. Same with NVDA.

Fail. *cries*

 

[JEDI]

Holy.. Greek bailiout nowhere near a done deal like i thought it was?!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/17/markets/greece_bailout/index.htm?source=cnn_bin

"Greece's government is also expected to announce further austerity cuts ahead of Monday's Eurogroup meeting."
when did this Monday requirement appear?

also, there's no deal on private sector bond holders taking a 50% cut on their bonds.
According to news reports, the Greek government may also pass legislation this week through a so-called collective action clause that would force 'holdouts' to take the deal if there aren't enough 'volunteers'.

BUT

Standard & Poor's said earlier this month that it would applying the collective action clause would be viewed as a selective default, under the rating agency's current criteria. 😱

oh boy...

 

[mugs]

ok, lost $90. Made $60 earlier in the week. That was totally all worth it.... Not. Broker made $60, good for them. Calling it a "day"...


Nothing's moving... Very depressing.

STOP DAYTRADING

caps

 

[Imp]

Exactly why I just don't believe in this rally, and am not comfortable putting all my money in. So, markets completely tank over the Euro-crisis, and as things remain unchanged at best, or are getting worse, we're going to send the markets to the highest point since 2008?

STOP DAYTRADING

caps

Aye, sir!

 

[mshan]

Inflection Point?:

Where to next?

"Is this a period of breakout or consolidation? My inner investor tells me to stay with the bull trend in equities as they are in a well-defined uptrend. Moreover, a glance at the 30-year Treasury yield shows that it is forming a saucer bottom pattern, indicating that the risk-off trade is on its last legs.



My inner trader, on the other hand, is more agnostic on the question of breakout or consolidation. On one hand, he is aware that the combination of under-invested equity investors and bullish sentiment can lead to a series of "good overbought" conditions that result in higher prices. On the other hand, the markets are overbought and they are ripe for a pullback and he is watching market conditions carefully next week for signs which way the markets break."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/377061-breakout-or-consolidation

Ultimate Bear Case (aka When The Music Stops... (Margin Call reference 🙂):

"(Bond and Currency) Markets Are So Rigged By Policy Makers That I Have No Meaningful Insights To Offer (other than my own bubble fears)"

(ZH looks like they really took Bob The Bear's comments out of context. Reading whole paragraph from which that quote was taken, sounds like he is in the Kyle Bass ultimate endgame scenario (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw), recommending his uber-rich clients wait out the approaching distant storm with income generating physical assets - e. g. oil and gas MLPs, or in Jim Cramer's case, an apartment building financed with a mortgage that he seemed to have been having difficulty closing on last winter (this is based upon his on air comments and I would guess reflects mortgage rate he got quoted was too low with interest rate fluctuations for lender to complete loan?) or presumably wealth-preserving physical gold (not re-hypothecated paper gold which would presumably be worthless if financial system falls apart) as mentioned in the article) Also reminds me of Mark Cuban interview on CNBC last winter when he said he had some tech start-up investments, oil and gas MLPs, and lots of cash, and forgot what actual questions was, but his answer was (paraphrase) "I don't need to make more money, I am already rich" (i. e. capital preservation and outpacing inflation, rather than hitting home runs in stock market).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-j...cy-makers-i-have-no-meaningful-insights-offer

 

[Imp]

Greekce gets one more bailout:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...each-accord-on-second-bailout-for-greece.html

Looks like DOW will hit low 13k... And the magical rally can continue up without pulling back until Greece needs another bailout or something.

 

[darkxshade]

So Dow passed and is steady just under 13,000, what's next, SPX @ 1400?

Dow peaked at ~14000 in 2007 prior to the crash... SPX was at 1575. Is today even anything close what it was like around 2006-2007? Getting ready to jump ship.

 

[Arachnotronic]

All my stuff was up at open, rallied, and now I'm at break even. Screw this. Sold everything. I'm done with this.

 

[ultimatebob]

Heh... it looks like everyone else in here has the same confidence as I do in the Dow staying that these ridiculously inflated levels. 🙂

 

[Imp]

Back to bouncing around a short range.

Come on, let's clear Dow 13k, be done with it, then tank finally. Rally has been going on almost 2 months without serious impediment.


Edit: So it appears that there's a broad decline going on right now. Even AAPL is going down from its day high.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Back to bouncing around a short range.

Come on, let's clear Dow 13k, be done with it, then tank finally. Rally has been going on almost 2 months without serious impediment.


Edit: So it appears that there's a broad decline going on right now. Even AAPL is going down from its day high.

Welcome to the end of the rally. Bears are in control -- and I don't want to own stock when everyone else sees this.

 

[hiromizu]

It's a head fake designed to shed off short term traders. The market will continue it's rally after this. Just look at the charts. Hopefully you didn't commit to any losses and see this as a potential buying opportunity.

 

[Arachnotronic]

It's a head fake designed to shed off short term traders. The market will continue it's rally after this. Just look at the charts. Hopefully you didn't commit to any losses and see this as a potential buying opportunity.

You really think so? No losses for me...other than, well, I could've sold WAY higher earlier in the day. Since I just opened a new account with Ameritrade, I get 500 free trades, but I need to pick different companies and not jump into the losers I had before.

 

[KB]

We finally get what we have been hoping for, a Greece bailout, and the market falls. It is likely that this fall is just people taking profits from the rally and trying to find a new fear.. rising gas prices. If oil hits $110 - 125 we may see another drop in the market.

Sadly the Greece problem isn't solved and we are likely to be talking about it for some time to come.

 

[darkxshade]

The major indices are still somewhat showing a bit of momentum to the upside but it's starting to taper off. I'm not sure if the market has the strength to continue this for long. My guesstimate is that SPX will top out at around 1380 towards the middle to end of Mar then struggle for a bit before correcting in April.