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***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

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mshan said:
Haven't been following markets closely recently, but just turned on CNBC and got to ask, are we breaking out to upside? (e. g. yield on 10 year has broken above 2.05%*, which I think some talking head on CNBC previously said was top of current trading range)

Would be interesting to know what institutional money flows are like (e. g. is The Great Rotation out of bonds and cash possibly about to happen?)






* Guess this assumes this is not a massive head fake like last November when MF Global publicly imploded a few days after we had what Gary Kautbaum (http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stocks/commentary/the-cuckoo-s-nest-1578737.html) had described as a Europe is solved type breakout rally (IIRC, market seemed to turn over and have a failed break out a few days before news of MF Global became public news):


Hopefully trillions of dollars of global central bank liquidity makes this time different, even though it doesn't ultimately solve underlying debt problem, just buys time for politicians and voting populations to get their own fiscal houses in order (Obama / Boehner Grand Bargain, and real reform of out of control inflation in health care and defense spending costs).
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You're either an idealist, or stupid because that last part won't happen.
 
"You're either an idealist, or stupid because that last part won't happen."
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I would agree with you that I am a perma-bull in the sense that I believe stock market as a whole will, over the long-term, reflect earnings growth of corporate America, and I only invest in a diversified portfolio of quality mutual funds for the long-term (time and compound interest, with a health respect for risk (i. e. risk of permanent loss of capital, not short-term market volatility) to take advantage of that trend.

You may ultimately be proven right that the political will, both here and abroad, is ultimately not there to makes necessary changes to definitively solve global debt problems, but I also suspect people can make an awful lot of money while you wait for the world to come to an end, yet again, and all over again...




🙂
 
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mshan said:
I would agree with you that I am a perma-bull in the sense that I believe stock market as a whole will, over the long-term, reflect earnings growth of corporate America, and I only invest in a diversified portfolio of quality mutual funds for the long-term (time and compound interest, with a health respect for risk (i. e. risk of permanent loss of capital, not short-term market volatility) to take advantage of that trend.

You may ultimately be proven right that the political will, both here and abroad, is ultimately not there to makes necessary changes to definitively solve global debt problems, but I also suspect people can make an awful lot of money while you wait for the world to come to an end, yet again, and all over again...




🙂
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I was more making reference to the whole "politicians and voters to get their fiscal house in order" - one thing that has been made abundantly clear is is that no one pays the punishment for their poor decisions, as a result, theirs no incentive to get anyone's house in order.
 
RbSX said:
I was more making reference to the whole "politicians and voters to get their fiscal house in order" - one thing that has been made abundantly clear is is that no one pays the punishment for their poor decisions, as a result, theirs no incentive to get anyone's house in order.
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Politicians work for private industry. So all decisions they make are to insure bigger profits for private industry.

It pretty naive of you to actually think politicians are working on behalf of voters.
 
"no one pays the punishment for their poor decisions"
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Would absolutely agree with this assertion, but given that all of us presumably collectively don't have the capital to even produce a minor transient ripple in markets, I think we just have to accept what the market gives us, not what we all wish would have happened (schadenfreude for ruling elites, both here in U. S. and Europe and elsewhere).

London Banker has also constantly railed against this focus on "financial stability", rather than the resilience and resolution as he advocates:

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2011/12/why-i-oppose-financial-stability.html

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2012/01/survivor-bias-and-tbtf-tyranny.html
 
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And Apple keeps going up 😀

My timing for Apple stock has been really screwed up, every time since earnings, the usual triggers for a pullback hasn't triggered one.

Another 52 week high today, and the new iPad hasn't seen the light of day yet.

Rumors are that Apple had a million built for release day, pre orders have sold out, now a 2-3 week delay to get one.
 
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sigh.. 50% leveraged into Dryships.. they didnt get todays bounce.
🙁

but i'm glad the other 100% of my portfolio is in US stocks!
 
That was a very interesting day. I own about 50 different stocks and ETF's and every single one of them were green today. the weird thing is that a few are "hedges" and usually move opposite of the general market, but even they went up today.

Michael
 
Think I'm about to throw it all into SU.

Glad I didn't touch C - failed stress test, went down 3.5% in aftermarket (was up 6% on day). It'll probably go back up over the course of the day tomorrow.
 
Imp said:
Think I'm about to throw it all into SU.

Glad I didn't touch C - failed stress test, went down 3.5% in aftermarket (was up 6% on day). It'll probably go back up over the course of the day tomorrow.
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Good day to do so it seems since it's on sale.
 
Intel17 said:
Good day to do so it seems since it's on sale.
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Well, I threw some into SU.

I'm going to sit tight on C. Downside risk is WAY more than SU, while upside is roughly the same. Volatility much higher though. I'll look at it again later in the day, but at this point, BAC seems like the better bet... until Greece/EU throws a shit storm again.
 
Pliablemoose said:
And Apple keeps going up 😀

My timing for Apple stock has been really screwed up, every time since earnings, the usual triggers for a pullback hasn't triggered one.

Another 52 week high today, and the new iPad hasn't seen the light of day yet.

Rumors are that Apple had a million built for release day, pre orders have sold out, now a 2-3 week delay to get one.
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+24 so far today. Morgan Stanley raised their price target for AAPL to 720. It's crazy the impact AAPL has, these numbers are for the S&P 500:

For the fourth quarter the blended earnings growth rate, which combines results of companies that have reported as well as estimates of those who have yet to report, is 6.1%, according to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet Research. Stripping Apple and AIG out of the equation and the growth rate falls to 1.2%.
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Bah, my shit's down. But the last 10 times this happened, I sold at a loss, or sold for a small gain... then they all went back up to above par - well above par. Hold mofo!
 
What ever happened to Azurik? IIRC he posted in the previous ATOT stock market threads pretty regularly, and had some interesting insight.
 
zimu said:
he lost heaps on the rambus fiasco and think has been hiding away in shame since. his history suggests he's now trying some slickdeals/fatwallet clone site.


KFN fans: http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...inancial-at-dividend-channel-with-7-71-yield/
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Ah 🙁 bummer. You win some, you lose some.

If you like high dividend stocks check out PDLI. 9.5% dividend yield and (in my totally unprofessional opinion) feels like a solid stock. I looked at it for a month before buying in.
 
zimu said:
he lost heaps on the rambus fiasco and think has been hiding away in shame since. his history suggests he's now trying some slickdeals/fatwallet clone site.


KFN fans: http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...inancial-at-dividend-channel-with-7-71-yield/
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http://thefinancestud.com/

Stupid name for a stupid site

First article lists a promotion for a $5 credit for $5 in redbox rentals and under "Best Credit Cards" is a Visa Black Card with a $500 annual fee. I don't think he knows his target audience.
 
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