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* * * Official 2012 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread * * *

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This season has been rough. Lost Gronk, McFadden, Fred Jackson, and DeMarco Murray.

My RB duo this week is Matthews and hopefully Jackson will be back. If not, I have Danny Woodhead.

And I thought I had some RB depth at the start of the season...
 
woodman1999 said:
Hmmmm... 2-1 for Dalton. Anyone else here want to chime in?
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Dalton.

Brees is tough to sit....but did you see the Niners front last night?

Yes, Brees is no Campbell, of course, but Brees might not make it out alive. D:

Dalton is on a bit of a roll, and against Oakland? seems easy.
 
zinfamous said:
Dalton.

Brees is tough to sit....but did you see the Niners front last night?

Yes, Brees is no Campbell, of course, but Brees might not make it out alive. D:

Dalton is on a bit of a roll, and against Oakland? seems easy.
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Brees at home is a no brainer no matter who he is playing.
 
Vote for Brees. Maybe I'm mistaken but I don't think NOR O-line is nearly as porous as the Chi O-line so Brees won't likely get murdered. And something about never bench a stud.

Freeman v Atl
or
Eli v GB

Leaning towards Eli to have a comeback week.
 
T2urtle said:
I've learned that as well. Start them no matter what, even on tough matchups. But determining who is a stud is a problem aside from the normal guys. Eli is suppose to be a stud but is a bum. Flacco is on the same boat as Eli.
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Flacco has at least performed to expectations. Eli was, on average, the 7th QB taken in the draft, but is now the 23rd ranked QB. Flacco was taken 17th in the draft and is ranked 16th. He's been extremely inconsistent, but as a whole, he has performed as expected.

Not sure Eli is quite a stud. Depends on your idea of what constitutes a stud player. Top 30 overall? Top 20? Eli was in the mid-40s prior to the start of the season and a lot of people had him as their primary QB. But unlike people who took Rodgers or Brady in the 1st round, if you took Eli you were probably looking to get a decent backup for matchup purposes.
 
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woodman1999 said:
That's my issue. I want to play him, I really do. But his matchup is not as easy and Dalton has been doing pretty well as of late.
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That's why I say Dalton. Either one would be the right answer. It's kinda like choosing between Aaron Rodgers against a good pass defense or Josh Freeman against the worst pass defense in the league. Either one will put up a good chunk of points comparable in number.
 
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Traded Malcolm Floyd and Vick Ballard for Peyton Manning. I so desperately need a good QB... glad it's one with a cakewalk remaining schedule, too.
 
Over lunch I was reading an article on match-ups vs. player with respect to trading (using last 3 years data), but it seems to make sense here as well:

Quarterbacks: Get the best
There's no more telling fact than this: The top five quarterbacks averaged nearly five fantasy points per game greater than quarterbacks ranked eighth to 12th -- or within two spots of the cutoff for starting spots in an ESPN standard league -- from Weeks 12-17 and nearly four fantasy points per game greater than quarterbacks who faced the five most favorable matchups.

Sure enough, in terms of total fantasy points accrued, the top five quarterbacks from Weeks 1-11 of 2011 (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford) still comprised the top five quarterbacks from Weeks 12-17 (ranked Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton and Rodgers during that time). In fact, four of the five actually improved in terms of average fantasy points per game the final six weeks of the 2011 season. Rodgers was the exception, averaging 26.3 points in the first 11 weeks and 24.4 in the final six, but he was still third best at his position during that time, hardly concerning his owners.

Takeaway: Don't trade Brees, Rodgers, Robert Griffin III or any quarterback who has gotten you this far, and certainly don't trade Brady despite his Weeks 14-15 matchups against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers, which rank among the eight worst matchups for a quarterback (before Week 11's games).


Top 8 matchups 14.2 fpts/gm
Bottom 8 matchups 11.8 fpts/gm
Difference 2.4

Top 5 QBs 18.1 fpts/gm
QBs 8-12 13.5 fpts/gm
Difference 4.6
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So yeah, I would stick with Brees.

KT
 
AstroManLuca said:
Flacco has at least performed to expectations. Eli was, on average, the 7th QB taken in the draft, but is now the 23rd ranked QB. Flacco was taken 17th in the draft and is ranked 16th. He's been extremely inconsistent, but as a whole, he has performed as expected.

Not sure Eli is quite a stud. Depends on your idea of what constitutes a stud player. Top 30 overall? Top 20? Eli was in the mid-40s prior to the start of the season and a lot of people had him as their primary QB. But unlike people who took Rodgers or Brady in the 1st round, if you took Eli you were probably looking to get a decent backup for matchup purposes.
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To me Eli is not any better then the average Joe. But he has two rings and people argued he was "elite" prior to the season.

I had him like in the 10th round. Brady, Rodgers and brees is easy top 3. With Peyton being iffy.
 
AstroManLuca said:
Flacco has at least performed to expectations. Eli was, on average, the 7th QB taken in the draft, but is now the 23rd ranked QB. Flacco was taken 17th in the draft and is ranked 16th. He's been extremely inconsistent, but as a whole, he has performed as expected.

Not sure Eli is quite a stud. Depends on your idea of what constitutes a stud player. Top 30 overall? Top 20? Eli was in the mid-40s prior to the start of the season and a lot of people had him as their primary QB. But unlike people who took Rodgers or Brady in the 1st round, if you took Eli you were probably looking to get a decent backup for matchup purposes.
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Here's how it works for Eli:

Real life footballing: stud
Fantasy footballing: bum
 
KeithTalent said:
Over lunch I was reading an article on match-ups vs. player with respect to trading (using last 3 years data), but it seems to make sense here as well:



So yeah, I would stick with Brees.

KT
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I didn't see the article but I was listening to one of my fantasy podcasts today (Fantasy Focus I think) and they were talking about this. Probably referring to the exact same thing you read.

Summary was that quarterbacks are much less affected by matchups. High-end QBs tend to be matchup-proof, and highly favorable matchups aren't that likely to help a mediocre QB put up lots of points.

On the other hand, only the top-tier elite RBs are truly matchup-proof. Once you get out of about the top three or so, matchups start to have a greater effect. They did say that favorable matchups don't help as much as unfavorable ones hurt.

KT, do you have the actual article? I love digging into these kinds of stats and I'd like to see it for myself instead of hearing about it secondhand.
 
AstroManLuca said:
I didn't see the article but I was listening to one of my fantasy podcasts today (Fantasy Focus I think) and they were talking about this. Probably referring to the exact same thing you read.

Summary was that quarterbacks are much less affected by matchups. High-end QBs tend to be matchup-proof, and highly favorable matchups aren't that likely to help a mediocre QB put up lots of points.

On the other hand, only the top-tier elite RBs are truly matchup-proof. Once you get out of about the top three or so, matchups start to have a greater effect. They did say that favorable matchups don't help as much as unfavorable ones hurt.

KT, do you have the actual article? I love digging into these kinds of stats and I'd like to see it for myself instead of hearing about it secondhand.
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Yeah, same thing for sure and was an interesting read.

Here you go bro: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football...12/looking-ahead-schedules-find-trade-targets

KT
 
I need to drop someone. Can someone give me a recommendation on who to drop? I'm already dropping Heath Miller for Ronnie Hillman. I need to drop one more guy.

2ahrshw.jpg
 
HNNstyle said:
I need to drop someone. Can someone give me a recommendation on who to drop? I'm already dropping Heath Miller for Ronnie Hillman. I need to drop one more guy.

2ahrshw.jpg
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Who's the second guy you're picking up? I guess I'd say Eli, Turner, or Lloyd. But they all have upside. Maybe Eli returns to form, you don't want someone else to have him. Turner still holds value because as atrocious as he is, he's still a starting RB. And Lloyd always has a chance to do well with Brady throwing to him, especially now with Gronk out.

I'd probably drop Eli though assuming you're comfortable starting Palmer from now on. Or Lloyd if you're picking up a WR. A few people are saying Julian Edelman is more valuable than Lloyd at this point.
 
AstroManLuca said:
Who's the second guy you're picking up? I guess I'd say Eli, Turner, or Lloyd. But they all have upside. Maybe Eli returns to form, you don't want someone else to have him. Turner still holds value because as atrocious as he is, he's still a starting RB. And Lloyd always has a chance to do well with Brady throwing to him, especially now with Gronk out.

I'd probably drop Eli though assuming you're comfortable starting Palmer from now on. Or Lloyd if you're picking up a WR. A few people are saying Julian Edelman is more valuable than Lloyd at this point.
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Thanks. I was actually thinking the same thing so I'm really unsure as to what to do. I want to pick up a second defense for this week. I know that might sound silly but there's a top 5 def this week that I want to play. Picking the right def in my league can mean an extra 20 points. I've managed to pick the right one off of the waiver wire 5 times now, with 3 wrong ones. Not too shabby but it usually means the difference between winning or losing for me. I don't want to drop Houston because obviously, they have a good def but they're not ranked high this week.
 
Okay, I think I've decided to drop Danny Amendola. How's that sound? I'm thinking that Brandon Lloyd can have a huge upside with Gronk out. In addition to that, I don't think I will ever play Danny Amendola since i have Roddy White and Randall Cobb. I don't see any reason why I would put Amendola in over one of those two. Good reasoning?
 
This is how I'm rolling week 12.

Week12.jpg


I think the Indy/Buf game is going to be crazy...so I'm going with Luck.

I don't want to ruin my Thanksgiving so I'm limiting the Thursday game players to just Foster, Hou D and Gost.

I also added JStew just incase that McCoy is ruled inactive after the games on Sunday. If he is ruled inactive by Saturday then I can go with Reece instead.
 
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