***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[Schfifty Five]

since I'm also a shareholder, couldn't you have jinxed another company?

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I also bought 10 shares like months ago when it was trading around $338. So those have done decently.

 

[The-Noid]

Dear Europe, Berlusconi, Italy, Greece, Merkozy, new Papa, et al.

I keep hearing you are having a liquidity problem and that all these news fixes (EFSF leverage when you can't even get off a Euro5B issue because of market conditions and trade at 150bps over Bunds even when you trim to Euro3B) are going to fix everything. This is wrong. A liquidity problem is the world's way of telling you, you have a solvency problem. Solvent businesses, governments, banks, utilities, etc. that have good credit profiles are able to borrow until they no longer can. A business doesn't just go out and all the sudden say they are bankrupt. Crises of liquidity are the symptom, solvency is the cancer.

This gets worse. The market has finally told the Eurozone that they are insolvent. This isn't one country, Greece, this is every Eurozone country. German Bunds still catch a bid based on this hairbrain idea that Germany can leave and it will be painless. Look at how elevated every country in the Eurozone is sans Germany either to midswaps or Bunds. The ban of CDS showed exactly how few people want to own any Eurozone debt sans protection and has blown out credit profiles not brought spreads in which is what they were hoping. Bring back CDS liquidity, bring in ECB printing or this is the end game and things get much worse.

Thanks for you time.

The-Noid

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

The Euro needs stabilization.

Then one of two things have to happen:
1) You create the united states of Euroland
2) Everyone walks away from the Euro

The Euro was a stupid experiment that failed. Atleast England had the brains to see this coming. Anyway, we won't have Euroland. So, the Euro will die.

Stabilization has to happen first before a graceful exit.

 

[SunnyD]

The Euro needs stabilization.

Then one of two things have to happen:
1) You create the united states of Euroland
2) Everyone walks away from the Euro

The Euro was a stupid experiment that failed. Atleast England had the brains to see this coming. Anyway, we won't have Euroland. So, the Euro will die.

Stabilization has to happen first before a graceful exit.

The Euro would have worked if it was the ONLY GLOBAL currency. Unfortunately nationalistic pride will prevent anything like that from every happening.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Sunny,

The failure of the Euro was the fact that they all shared the same currency, but the fiscal discipline of the countries involved all differred. All countries were supposed to maintain a debt/GDP ratio of 0.6 or less I think. Something along those lines. Guess which two countries did not follow those guidelines?

It has little to do with nationalistic pride. It has everything to do with the qualities of gov't from country to country. Italy for god sakes. A co-worker joked that he took cartons of cigarettes to Italy (he was born there) whenever he visited because they could be used as bribes.

As much as people complain in the US over big gov't, people should appreciate that the US has one of the best governmental structures in the world. Sure it has it's flaws. Anything involving 300 million people does.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Oh, the reason I came into the thread.

CNBC: 6-9 am monday (11/14/11). Guest host is Warrenn Buffett. My money is on a bullish open.

 

[VinylxScratches]

I'm glad Poland hasn't adopted it yet but I think they will in 2020 or something.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm glad Poland hasn't adopted it yet but I think they will in 2020 or something.

England never did and got shit for it. I'm sure they are laughing now.

 

[Imp]

Oh, the reason I came into the thread.

CNBC: 6-9 am monday (11/14/11). Guest host is Warrenn Buffett. My money is on a bullish open.

Looks that way just from the DOW et al charts. Unless it breaks out, looks like it'll do the same up and down of the past month.

I still can't believe crude is up to $99 and everyone's saying Europe's in a recession, North American growth is slow, and China is slowing.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Buffet buys 5.5% oF IBM! Wow, no one saw that coming.

Under the obvious tag: Buffett bought more WFC.

 

[SunnyD]

Buffet buys 5.5% oF IBM! Wow, no one saw that coming.

Under the obvious tag: Buffett bought more WFC.

IBM is in a pretty strong position right now, it's really not that surprising. They are aggressively moving to a software/services direction that also happens to be able to provide the hardware behind those software/services. They're aggressively pursuing a lot of QOL technology, starting with Watson, which will have ramifications throughout several high profile and more importantly high margin business sectors. It looks like their bets are paying off, and come 10-20 years from now we'll see IBM back on top of the technology world again.

 

[jessieqwert]

Out of CIM at 2.80. Might get back in on a dip

 

[The-Noid]

Euro leaky under 1.35, trying to fight the hard line there. Very active bid at 1.3499, 1.3500.

#Soapbox...#theywillloseit

Edit 11:51 EST:

Is the world over yet?

CDS Quotes, Mid-Spread c/o Markit Intraday.

Netherlands +19bps @ 122bps
Austria +26bps @ 224bps
France +21bps @ 234bps
Belgium +22bps @ 342bps
Spain +30bps @ 477bps
Italy +43bps @ 594bps

It seems as though the EFSF and ban on naked CDS is helping quite a bit.

BTP - Bund 10 Y @ 530bps + 38bps
OAT - Bund 10 Y @ 191bps + 26bps

Good thing we are only down 9 E-mini handles.

 

[SunnyD]

Whoa... where the hell is RMBS off to?

 

[chusteczka]

Out of CIM at 2.80. Might get back in on a dip

That is a tempting move but I am holding. The current price at $2.80 is near their Book Value so it has room to move upwards without the volatility of an overpriced stock.

 

[The-Noid]

Whoa... where the hell is RMBS off to?

Cryptography Research, Inc. (CRI), a division of Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS), and Mikron JSC (Mikron), a division of SITRONICS JSC (LSE:SITR), today announced they have signed a license agreement regarding the use of CRI's patents in Mikron products, including Mikron's secure integrated circuits. Incorporation of CRI's patented technology can protect Mikron's tamper-resistant products against differential power analysis (DPA) and related attacks. "Mikron produces a wide range of ICs for secure ID systems and various smart cards using payment applications that require the highest security rating. Security is a major focus for Mikron, and our strategy is to develop advanced secure microcontrollers with protection against a multitude of attacks. DPA Countermeasures are a critical security requirement, and this agreement will enable Mikron to strengthen its leadership in the security market," said Gennady Krasnikov, Chief Executive Officer at Mikron JSC. "Protecting electronic devices and security systems from power analysis attacks is critical. CRI's patented countermeasures to DPA are a vital part of building tamper-resistant semiconductors," said Paul Kocher, president and chief scientist of CRI. "Mikron is the largest Russian chip supplier for a variety of industries and we are pleased to include them as our first Russia-based licensed chip supplier." DPA is a form of attack that involves monitoring variations in electrical power consumption of a target device and then using statistical methods to derive cryptographic keys or other secrets. Strong countermeasures to DPA are important for securing mobile devices, bank cards, pay television systems, secure identity products, secure storage media, and other electronic systems and components. Many of the world's leading security standards include requirements that devices be protected against DPA and related attacks. CRI has developed a portfolio of over 55 patents covering countermeasures to DPA attacks, with additional patent applications pending. For additional information on CRI or on the CRI DPA Workstation platform visit www.cryptography.com. About Cryptography Research, Inc. Cryptography Research, Inc., a division of Rambus Inc., is a leader in semiconductor security research and development. Established by internationally renowned cryptographer Paul Kocher, CRI develops and licenses innovative technologies in areas including tamper resistance, content protection, anti-counterfeiting, network security, and financial services. Over five billion security products are made each year under license from CRI. Security systems designed by CRI scientists and engineers protect hundreds of billions of dollars in commerce annually. Additional information is available at www.cryptography.com. About Rambus Inc. Rambus is one of the world's premier technology licensing companies. Founded in 1990, the Company specializes in the invention and design of architectures focused on enriching the end-user experience of electronic systems. Rambus' patented innovations and breakthrough technologies help industry-leading companies bring superior products to market. Rambus licenses both its world-class patent portfolio, as well as its family of leadership and industry-standard solutions. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, Rambus has regional offices in North Carolina, Ohio, India, Germany, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. Additional information is available at www.rambus.com.

News from today.

 

[Azurik]

Whoa... where the hell is RMBS off to?

It's just following the market with the high beta it has. The licensing news is a small item considering what people are placing bets on.

I've been selling weekly call options for the past few weeks and making pretty good (and easy) income. The jury was out all last week since one juror had a bad case of the flu. They also took yesterday and today off... expecting to come back tomorrow.

I took the opportunity last week on the dip to load on January $22.50 call options (while still retaining all my shares). I hope they're done before Thanksgiving (which was the expected deadline the Judge predicted when the trial began), but too many things like illnesses can cause delay that I don't want to buy front-month options.

 

[lothar]

Whoa... where the hell is RMBS off to?

Sysco:Cisco::Mikron:Micron?
Looks alike, sounds alike.

Can't it be possible that a few people read too fast thought "Micron" signed a licensing agreement with Rambus?
Similar to when a few brokers and traders bought Sysco instead of Cisco stock decades ago?

This licensing news doesn't seem like something like something that should be big news.

 

[Ms. DICKINSON]

That is a tempting move but I am holding. The current price at $2.80 is near their Book Value so it has room to move upwards without the volatility of an overpriced stock.

Exactly as my thought. The recent published GAAP book value makes it promising. ...will see. I'm holding as well.

 

[jessieqwert]

Pro tip - check options to make sure they are monthly not weekly (if that's what you want).

Expensive lesson learned - another reason the TDAmeritrade buyout of ToS sucks (platforms changed)

 

[Azurik]

Pro tip - check options to make sure they are monthly not weekly (if that's what you want).

Expensive lesson learned - another reason the TDAmeritrade buyout of ToS sucks (platforms changed)

RMBS related?

Not many stocks mentioned here have weekly options currently. In fact, RMBS didn't start to have weeklies again until the trial. More ways to make money for the big guys.

 

[jessieqwert]

Haha, GMCR call at $45

 

[Azurik]

Outside of my core shares, here's what I've been doing regarding RMBS:

I've been selling $19 covered call weekly options for a few weeks now.

I also have Nov 18 $14 puts for this week for downside protection just in case something comes up.

Finally, a bunch of January $22.50's I got in the $1.30's when RMBS was down last week due to stories on the ITC patent case.

I think a decision comes next week. If I were a jury, I wouldn't want this to go through my holidays. For my own sake, I hope it's not this week. It's only 2 days, but I want my covered calls to expire worthless, unless I have enough time to buy them back before a hopefully good verdict. We'll see!

 

[Nerva]

man you guys are a bunch of day traders who know nothing about fundamental analysis. i'm just so happy that US markets are moved mostly by institutions and not retail guys like you.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

man you guys are a bunch of day traders who know nothing about fundamental analysis. i'm just so happy that US markets are moved mostly by institutions and not retail guys like you.

US markets are mostly driven by high frequency trading. Buffett laughed that he and IBM togehter bought 10% of all the IBM sotck out there in 3-6 months time and not a single person noticed. People don't hold anymore. Or as I like to think .... HFT has increased volume so much that people can not see soemone accumulating anymore.

Anyway, I find cheap quality stocks and buy. I buy more on a dip or re-investigate. I just lost on FBN and basically realized I did not know enough about the company. Apparently their pension issues were underestimated by me. Sold at a 33% loss.

But I typically hold till stocks are just about properly valued.

Best investment this past year was SD.

Currently into USG. One of my largest holdings at 25% of portfolio and I have some bullsih LEAPs against them. I figure it is worth about $19/share.