***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

I honestly think that it belongs around 8000.

Look at the P/E's, they are retarded right now for this economic climate.

It's okay though, we can keep the numbers going up artificially with our 31st century federal reserve keeping rates near 0% for 5 straight years.

That hasn't caused any problems in the past.

The Dow? Using DCF, it was hard to find bargains as the Dow approached 13,000. But at under 11,000 it is easy. Especially if you look at out of favor sectors like building materials and financials.


FWIW: I loaded up big time on USG over the past week. Some USG $5 strike LEAPS out to 2013 is the majority of it but I also grabbed some Aug and Sep Calls at $13 strike as a gamble. Free roll pretty much. I paid 5 cents per call ($5 in reality) plus commissions.

 

[SunnyD]

Well... I stand corrected. Of course I feel this is yet another play by the day traders to keep the market artificially bullish. I can't help but wonder when the weight of it all will come crashing down on them. (Not TRYING to be a doomsayer, but it just feels... wrong?)

That said, oh well, I lose this round. Thought for sure it would go down more, but I didn't buy in on Monday. Drat.

 

[zimu]

I just sold my remaining position and banked it into RMBS. IDCC could go up further as some valuations for a buy-out are high (almost too high), but RMBS is in the middle of a very interesting AT case that FINALLY got underway. I was able to attend some sessions and have a good feeling on it. A lot of truths and lies are surfacing and it is not looking good for the memory manufacturers. The only thing I'm concerned about is most of this stuff seems like it's above the jury's head, but the deception and lies from the MMs are clear.

RMBS is either a <$10 stock or a cash behemoth after this.

I guess we know which direction it went 🙂 Down 33% since your very positive post above - and most of that prior to any stock market turmoil from the past week....

 

[zimu]

Today's surprisingly a good day for me! Put in most of my UK savings into Barclays and Lloyds on the LSE. I'm up 11% in 6 hours of market hours so far, and expect to hit 20% by next week when I sell them off.

This one requires quite a strong stomach... I've been watching my figures go from +15% to -5% in hours and back again. Definitely a long (i.e. weeks/ 1-2 month, rather than days) so i really shouldn't be looking daily right now. does NOT help having my iphone showing live streaming tickets for the shares...

 

[SunnyD]

Morning selloff. No need to panic...

 

[FelixDeCat]

This was a dead cat bounce. We will retest the lows because nothing chages the fact America is a money losing operation as an entity and can only survive by issuing more debt.

We will go below 10,000 before the end of the year. Sorry. :'(

:whiste:

 

[rcpratt]

:whiste:

I think we all know your opinion by now, bumping the thread just to see your emoticons is getting real old.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think we all know your opinion by now, bumping the thread just to see your emoticons is getting real old.

Stocks go up and they go down. Its clear we are headed down. One day we will go back up, but from where is anyones guess.

As mentioned before, in 2008 it was fear and doubt over personal mortgage debt because of bad loans. Its obvious as the nose on your face this is a crises of confidence in soveriegn debt, including our own. Until confidence is restored via emergency spending cuts and maybe even short term tax increases the momentum is downward. :'(

 

[SunnyD]

Stocks go up and they go down. Its clear we are headed down. One day we will go back up, but from where is anyones guess.

As mentioned before, in 2008 it was fear and doubt over personal mortgage debt because of bad loans. Its obvious as the nose on your face this is a crises of confidence in soveriegn debt, including our own. Until confidence is restored via emergency spending cuts and maybe even short term tax increases the momentum is downward. :'(

Regardless, bumping the thread by quoting your own post without adding anything other than an emoticon is lame. If you want to stroke your ego, do it on your own time.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Felix,

I think we are seeign alot of retired people once again move into "safe" investments. I think the average person in teh US does not know what he downgrade actually means. Answer: Nothing. It may sound strange but someone not familiar with Football probably has to trust what the annuoncers say until the spend time to learn about football. Right now, we have alot of announcers talking about a downgrade on the US governemnt. That has to scare someone.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Regardless, bumping the thread by quoting your own post without adding anything other than an emoticon is lame. If you want to stroke your ego, do it on your own time.

Fair enough. 🙂

 

[FelixDeCat]

Felix,

I think we are seeign alot of retired people once again move into "safe" investments. I think the average person in teh US does not know what he downgrade actually means. Answer: Nothing. It may sound strange but someone not familiar with Football probably has to trust what the annuoncers say until the spend time to learn about football. Right now, we have alot of announcers talking about a downgrade on the US governemnt. That has to scare someone.

I was alarmed when we passed $5 trillion in debt and have been ever since (post 1107). While some of my predictions about the fallout from it might be pretty scary, I sure hope they dont happen.

The day of reckoning has been a long time comming dealing with our national debt. If we keep our heads and do the right thing, I think we can navigate this mess successfully. But until then, it will be a nail biter with large swoons up and down on the way to who knows where.

I pray for those that are affected by this. My parents cant move their money and they are in their 70s so they need it right now. We survived 2008 and will make it through this one way or another.

 

[the DRIZZLE]

The Dow? Using DCF, it was hard to find bargains as the Dow approached 13,000. But at under 11,000 it is easy. Especially if you look at out of favor sectors like building materials and financials.


FWIW: I loaded up big time on USG over the past week. Some USG $5 strike LEAPS out to 2013 is the majority of it but I also grabbed some Aug and Sep Calls at $13 strike as a gamble. Free roll pretty much. I paid 5 cents per call ($5 in reality) plus commissions.

What are you using as a growth rate in your DCF?

 

[Azurik]

I guess we know which direction it went 🙂 Down 33&#37; since your very positive post above - and most of that prior to any stock market turmoil from the past week....

I can't predict the timing of it, and most of it was not before the stock market turmoil. It's a high beta stock that follows the market and then amplifies it. I still remain confident and optimistic about the company. Nothing has changed, except the overall sentiment of the world which may very well affect RMBS and other companies out there.

I'm not going to deny it, it's been a very bad few weeks for many, and a horrible one for me. I'm down over $100k+. Like I said before though, I take my emotions out of trading and base my decisions on what I know at the time. For the most part, it has worked out extremely well so far.

If these stocks go down to 2008 crisis levels, I will again have free capital to take advantage of a depressed market. The problems in the U.S. is not even near what it is in Western Europe.

I appreciate you following closely to every post I make here though. You've been stalking me since 2006 and I didn't expect it to change - I love my fanbois, positive or negative 😉

 

[zimu]

I appreciate you following closely to every post I make here though. You've been stalking me since 2006 and I didn't expect it to change - I love my fanbois, positive or negative 😉

haha! Well it's part fanboi, but mostly that RMBS enters this thread once a week, which typically involves you talking about some session you went and sat in and how positive it all looks, followed by a 5% fall the following day.

I've actually been tempted to draw a chart showing every time you've talked positively about them and how it directly correlates to it falling a few percentage points a day later 🙂

 

[IcePickFreak]

Regardless, bumping the thread by quoting your own post without adding anything other than an emoticon is lame. If you want to stroke your ego, do it on your own time.

What's the big deal? The stock market is all about not adding anything, other than money to your own bank account. It's not like you added any value.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What are you using as a growth rate in your DCF?

That is stock dependant. For USG I will usually assume no growth for a few years. Ramp up at maybe 2-3&#37; for a few years then have a jump to a new all time high at maybe year 5. I manually assign growth for the first 10 years then assume growth of 3 or 4% for years 10-20.

For soemthing like JNJ, I would assume growth at mybe 7 or 8% for 5 years then 5 or 6% for years 6-10 and 4% for years 10-20.

I then discount all those projected free cash flows to today's dollars. Typically discounting at 9% or greater. I usually check 9 and 11% but sometimes look at 13 and 15% discount rates.

 

[Azurik]

haha! Well it's part fanboi, but mostly that RMBS enters this thread once a week, which typically involves you talking about some session you went and sat in and how positive it all looks, followed by a 5% fall the following day.

I've actually been tempted to draw a chart showing every time you've talked positively about them and how it directly correlates to it falling a few percentage points a day later 🙂

How about you chart my overall gains instead so I can watch your jaw drop on the floor? 😉

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

How about you chart my overall gains instead so I can watch your jaw drop on the floor? 😉

Some problems with this (not just you, the internet as a whole):
1) After the fact posting
2) No idea what any holdings size is
3) No idea what your entire holdings consist of
4) It is a waste of time
5) Posting $100K loss is meaningless. For all we know, you have $5K in your account.

A 50% loss in year one requres a 100% gain in year 2.
The investors hall of fame consists of an empty room ...... the law of averages will catch up with you even if you are doing well.

 

[HopJokey]

Some problems with this (not just you, the internet as a whole):
1) After the fact posting
2) No idea what any holdings size is
3) No idea what your entire holdings consist of
4) It is a waste of time
5) Posting $100K loss is meaningless. For all we know, you have $5K in your account.

A 50% loss in year one requres a 100% gain in year 2.
The investors hall of fame consists of an empty room ...... the law of averages will catch up with you even if you are doing well.

You mean traders right?

 

[Azurik]

Some problems with this (not just you, the internet as a whole):
1) After the fact posting
2) No idea what any holdings size is
3) No idea what your entire holdings consist of
4) It is a waste of time
5) Posting $100K loss is meaningless. For all we know, you have $5K in your account.

A 50&#37; loss in year one requres a 100% gain in year 2.
The investors hall of fame consists of an empty room ...... the law of averages will catch up with you even if you are doing well.

Fair question:
1) I have my "take $1k and trade it as high as I can" posted on profit.ly with verified trades. I also have a user name on a site similar to profit.ly that tracks all 10 or so accounts in total online.
2) I stated some, although I have never delved into the exact numbers.
3) True.
4) Zimu likes to spend time on me, so it's not really a waste 🙂
5) By that account, posting anything is meaningless.

And I want to amend your last statement. Law of Averages does eventually bring everyone back towards the middle... if the stock market is a fair game (it's not). The big caps and blue chip stocks probably is fairer than others, but people make hand over first in other investments.

Look at Tim Sykes. Although he was able to capitalize it to a higher degree than most people and make it a commercial business, there are millions of tiny Tims around.

BTW, Zimu and I are just jabbing at each other. I hope people know that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Some problems with this (not just you, the internet as a whole):
1) After the fact posting
2) No idea what any holdings size is
3) No idea what your entire holdings consist of
4) It is a waste of time
5) Posting $100K loss is meaningless. For all we know, you have $5K in your account.

A 50% loss in year one requres a 100% gain in year 2.
The investors hall of fame consists of an empty room ...... the law of averages will catch up with you even if you are doing well.

The lessons that cost me a quarter million dollars to learn:

1) Excessive speculation versus diversified investing usually leads to more losses than gains. That is because the more chances you take the more likely you are to lose (make a bad decision).

2) Money quickly made is usually money quickly lost. You wont get lucky every time and may wind up giving it all back, and then some.

3) Greed is bad and margin kills.

 

[Engineer]

The lessons that cost me a quarter million dollars to learn:

1) Excessive speculation versus diversified investing usually leads to more losses than gains. That is because the more chances you take the more likely you are to lose (make a bad decision).

2) Money quickly made is usually money quickly lost. You wont get lucky every time and may wind up giving it all back, and then some.

3) Greed is bad and margin kills.

While I didn't lose that much, 1, 2 and 3 have burned my ass very badly. To the point that I am no longer allowed to own individual stocks. It was either that promise or losing my wife. I guess I should have told her what I was doing up front! 😳

 

[lothar]

The lessons that cost me a quarter million dollars to learn:

1) Excessive speculation versus diversified investing usually leads to more losses than gains. That is because the more chances you take the more likely you are to lose (make a bad decision).

2) Money quickly made is usually money quickly lost. You wont get lucky every time and may wind up giving it all back, and then some.

3) Greed is bad and margin kills.

Diversified investing is almost as foolish as excessive speculation.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Diversified investing is almost as foolish as excessive speculation.

Care to explain why you think this?

While I didn't lose that much, 1, 2 and 3 have burned my ass very badly. To the point that I am no longer allowed to own individual stocks. It was either that promise or losing my wife. I guess I should have told her what I was doing up front! 😳

Its good to have another mind to think with. I sure could have used one.