FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
Impressive? You aint seen nuthin' yet!
We need a major overhaul in our national finances and until the debt committee announces something, we will have this drag on the market.
:whiste:
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I see DNDN is a popular topic here, but no mention of ARO yet?
I remember some here were high on that company as well a few months back. It's taking a beating today after slashing their outlook.
I remember some here were high on that company as well a few months back. It's taking a beating today after slashing their outlook.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
there are a number of them. SPY, and VOO are 2 of them. I think VOO has a cheaper expense ratio....
SunnyD
Belgian Waffler
The part that makes me happy about all this... I'm actually in a position to dump money INTO the market as soon as it bottoms out this time around.
It's awfully tempting for me. It's not that I doubt it'll come back in due time, it's just a matter of what to pick
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
- 18,828
- 184
- 106
Something something unexpected action by governments, market spooked, lalalalala. Panic by all.
Contemplating cashing out at a loss and coming back when it's bottomed, but where's the bottom and how bad is it? We're not hemmorrhaging jobs yet, we're just not recovering all that fast.
So, at this rate, even if the job report sucks tomorrow, can it really get much worse?
Aharami
Lifer
- Aug 31, 2001
- 21,205
- 165
- 106
yea same. I sat out during the last crash (although I dont think this one will be nearly as bad as 2008). This time I'm moving significant portion of my savings acct to my brokerage acct so I can buy when the time is right. But I wish I'd dumped all stocks and gone all cash last week.
JTsyo
Lifer
- Nov 18, 2007
- 12,035
- 1,134
- 126
It's awfully tempting for me. It's not that I doubt it'll come back in due time, it's just a matter of what to pick
That's why I went with the whole S&P. Think I bought too early though, we'll see how much farther it goes and then kick myself.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
Ummmm hello!!
If you buy above 10,000 in the DOW, you are doing it wrong. All you people with short term memories forget just 3 years ago when we fell from 14,000 in the DOW all the day down to 6500!! People bought at 12, 10, 8, 7, etc... We had DOW down 1000 and then up 1000 with two days! It was crazy! That was because of a world wide private credit crises.
Now its a world wide public credit crises. If anything, this reminds me of 2007 when the first cracks of the global credit crises were starting to emerge. It didnt end until 2008.
We may stabilize around 10k, but Ill bet we see sub 10 before 12/31/2011. :'(
If you buy above 10,000 in the DOW, you are doing it wrong. All you people with short term memories forget just 3 years ago when we fell from 14,000 in the DOW all the day down to 6500!! People bought at 12, 10, 8, 7, etc... We had DOW down 1000 and then up 1000 with two days! It was crazy! That was because of a world wide private credit crises.
Now its a world wide public credit crises. If anything, this reminds me of 2007 when the first cracks of the global credit crises were starting to emerge. It didnt end until 2008.
We may stabilize around 10k, but Ill bet we see sub 10 before 12/31/2011. :'(
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
Buy puts and hold them or stay in cash and walk away if you cant stomach to volitility.
Again, in 2008 on the way down to the 6500, we had extreme downs followed by extreme ups. The long term play is puts right now. But that is a long term play. You might buy them today and feel stupid tomorrow, but by next week, they will be worth more IMO.
The metals thing is too complicated for me since gold hit a record but the ETFs were down because of margin calls and people were selling everything without regard to value (silver got hit hard today despite golds strengh).
SO, QQQ puts, long a short ETF or cash are the only options.
Would you go as far out as January expiration and walk away, or just do front month puts and re-buy if necessary?
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
Its up to you. Supposedly the debt commission is supposed to have reccomendations by November ready for debate and vote by 12/31.
The longer you go the more time value you are paying for and puts are going for a premium today because they are in favor.
I think maybe a September might be better to reduce both factors, but make up your own mind.
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,036
- 2,688
- 126
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
- 18,828
- 184
- 106
Right now? Seriously I would too.
Ok bitches, I just checked out 5/6 of my money. Lost $4k in 4 days. Gambling on a shit jobs report tomorrow and further selling.
rcpratt
Lifer
- Jul 2, 2009
- 10,433
- 110
- 116
I bought some Ford at $11.08 today. It's definitely a long-term thing. I'm hearing they're going to have their credit/debt upgraded 01/2012.
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I was one of them and I still am.
I'm just awaiting confirmation on a few things here and there from anyone that may be reliable or anyone who has looked more into the company than I did.
Good thing I didn't buy their stock yet. ^_^
I PM'ed Agabooga(or whatever his name is) regarding ARO to find out what he knows and thinks.
He PM'ed me back saying he would get back to me on that...He never did.
But wait a minute...I should actually be thanking him for NOT responding since he made me miss the 25-30% drop.
I hope he's reading this thread...
I never took any position and lost interest since I was waiting forever. The fact that their operating leases are not included on their balance sheet was what scared me off.
For a company like WMT, they tell you EXACTLY what it is. With ARO, you never know fully and have to fish everywhere. I was tired of it.
The company seemed to me like another Citigroup with liabilities such as operating lease obligations "off-balance" sheet. A prudent value investor always adds those off-balance sheet assets back to the balance sheet. A liability is a liability...No need to create a small basket at a random place somewhere saying you don't own it or it's not part of your liability and therefore shouldn't be included.
If you include those operating lease obligations, they drop those returns(CROIC, RoE, etc...) by a whole lot.
Some very important execs left a few months ago which also caught my attention. The chief merchandizing officer(the person largely most responsible for ARO's performance, arguably more than the CEO/CFO in fact) was one of them.
And yes...I still have both ARO and Buckle Inc. (BKE) on my watch list.
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