***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[endervalentine]

yay! got my tax return back, any suggestions on where I should dump a few k into?

 

[TheBDB]

yay! got my tax return back, any suggestions on where I should dump a few k into?

You should adjust your withholding so you aren't giving the government an interest free loan next year...

 

[Imp]

Nothing like US credit worries to tack onto the already large list of problems.

Finally dumped CSSO at a huge loss. Thing has been dead money for 2 months, and it finally broke through $17 resistance line. Business is probably ok, but P/E of ~13 means there's a lot more down as they 'restructure'.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market will crash 20% or more this year when America is forced into austerity by the countries buying our debt. :'(

Moodys has already threatened to downgrade our AAA credit rating, and may carry out that threat in 2011.

Predicted January 20th, 2011.

Step one occurred today when the S&P put the United States on negative credit watch. The next step is a downgrade. Our debt is unsustainable. Default is inevitable. :'(

 

[TheBDB]

Just sold my TIVO. 40% was good enough, didn't want to get greedy.

 

[goog40]

Another blowout quarter for AAPL... what's new. Trading at 355+ now, up sharply since hitting 320 two days ago. Interesting article here about how AAPL is underpriced and would have to trade at 388 tomorrow in order for it to be at the low end of it's PE ratio in the last two years:

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/19/why-apple-shares-are-dirt-cheap/

 

[InverseOfNeo]

I think AAPL is now at the very bottom of where it should be. I think investors realized after earnings what the worth of AAPL is. They just lost their ways the last few weeks.

 

[bookem dano]

and I almost bought aapl at $20/share...but didn't.

 

[zimu]

and I almost bought aapl at $20/share...but didn't.

that truly sucks. i got in when they were in the low 100s thinking it wouldn't go that much higher. wish i'd have put all my savings into it now!

 

[Pliablemoose]

I think AAPL is now at the very bottom of where it should be. I think investors realized after earnings what the worth of AAPL is. They just lost their ways the last few weeks.

I picked up a bit on Friday, nice earnings yesterday. :thumbsup:

 

[Demo24]

I picked up weekly 350 calls, but sold them Wednesday. Every other time I tried to play apple earnings I got burned, so 400% in 3 days was acceptable. Still they will be worth more than double this morning! Who ever had the guts to hold that last night is well off this morning!

 

[TheNinja]

What do you guys think of Oil in general? Topped out or a good play yet? I'm up 60% on my oil ETF but am thinking of dumping more in. I just believe it's one of those things they will always go up in the long run.

 

[endervalentine]

any play on nuclear, given the bad news surrounding it, might be a good time to jump in?

 

[Imp]

What do you guys think of Oil in general? Topped out or a good play yet? I'm up 60% on my oil ETF but am thinking of dumping more in. I just believe it's one of those things they will always go up in the long run.

Do a google search of "oil price crash 2008". See how that worked out.

 

[TheNinja]

Do a google search of "oil price crash 2008". See how that worked out.

- I bought a bunch in early 2009. I know, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

 

[snoopdoug1]

- I bought a bunch in early 2009. I know, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

which etf are you using?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Predicted January 20th, 2011.

Step one occurred today when the S&P put the United States on negative credit watch. The next step is a downgrade. Our debt is unsustainable. Default is inevitable. :'(

You did read the reasons behind the S&P comments, right?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What do you guys think of Oil in general? Topped out or a good play yet? I'm up 60% on my oil ETF but am thinking of dumping more in. I just believe it's one of those things they will always go up in the long run.

In general I am avoiding it. Energy is going to change from slow and boring to a quickly evolving industry over the next 30 years. The only thing I am confident in is the fact that we will go to natural gas eventually for trucking and locomotives.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

JNJ announced better guidance numbers and the stock is up almost 10% this week. NICE! Not bad for a 35% holding.

Sadly, my LEE holding tanked. But no problem, I'll happily double up on Monday if it slips further.

 

[Imp]

Dumped CSCO at a 10% loss. Shite. I made 10% the last earnings cycle, so thought I'd play it again. Unfortunately, I put more money in this time. It's still at P/E = ~12.5-13.0, and guidance is as bad as ever, so I see a lot more potential down, and Q1 2011 report probably won't help.

Moved that right over to MSFT, should have went for F. Both are also rock bottom, and have much better prospects.

 

[Demo24]

I picked up weekly 350 calls, but sold them Wednesday. Every other time I tried to play apple earnings I got burned, so 400% in 3 days was acceptable. Still they will be worth more than double this morning! Who ever had the guts to hold that last night is well off this morning!

This actually didn't play out like I thought it would. 350 calls didn't open any higher, probably because Thursday was expiration day. This is how I will play apple earnings from now on. Grab calls a few days before earnings, sell them before the announcement.

F earnings on Tuesday before open, should be interesting!

 

[HopJokey]

In general I am avoiding it. Energy is going to change from slow and boring to a quickly evolving industry over the next 30 years. The only thing I am confident in is the fact that we will go to natural gas eventually for trucking and locomotives.

Check out WPRT, they make Natural Gas engines that can be dropped into trucks and buses that currently use Diesel engines.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Check out WPRT, they make Natural Gas engines that can be dropped into trucks and buses that currently use Diesel engines.

Interesting. I do have a question though. Someone reputable was on CNBC and said that a conversion of an existing diesel truck costs $60K. Is this true?

I would also add that the trucking industry is highly cost competitive. If a 5% savings can be made via a change to natural gas, it will happen since the industry looks for cost savings like a hawk.

Keep in mind one of the lessons of Buffett. Trying to pick the winners is not easy. Picking the loosers is easy though. His example (from the book Snowball) was from the auto industry's birth when the tech boom was occurring. There were hundreds if not thousands of automobile companies. 3 survivied (Ford, Chevy, Dodge). Point being that picking the winners is hard. But those that shorted the horse did well since it was easy to see that was a looser.


Anyways, natural gas transportation would require an infrastructure to support it. Locomotives can do this easily. The auto industry will need it to be done via stations all over the US. The logical path is long haul trucking as a starting point. That has to occur first since the infrastructure can be created easily (more easily) since locations can be away from major cities so start up costs are lower (land costs ,etc). As that occurs, "sub locations" can be created as the industry expands.


EDIT: WPRT is priced with HUGE expectations baked in right now.

 

[HopJokey]

Interesting. I do have a question though. Someone reputable was on CNBC and said that a conversion of an existing diesel truck costs $60K. Is this true?

I would also add that the trucking industry is highly cost competitive. If a 5% savings can be made via a change to natural gas, it will happen since the industry looks for cost savings like a hawk.

Keep in mind one of the lessons of Buffett. Trying to pick the winners is not easy. Picking the loosers is easy though. His example (from the book Snowball) was from the auto industry's birth when the tech boom was occurring. There were hundreds if not thousands of automobile companies. 3 survivied (Ford, Chevy, Dodge). Point being that picking the winners is hard. But those that shorted the horse did well since it was easy to see that was a looser.

Not sure about the cost of a retrofit, but they did sign UPS recently to a big deal and also the Canadian government granted Westport with some funds to see if they can convert some trains to natural gas.

Yep, definitely a riskier pick as there needs to be a cultural shift towards natural gas. A lot depends on government incentives (not needed but helpful) for natural gas and the "fracking" issue hurting the perception of natural gas as well. The good news is that natural gas is abundant and cheap domestically and they don't have much competition (yet). They came up on my radar as a recommendation from a Motley Fool subscription service.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

If I remember UPS correctly, they are doing a test in California somewhere with this change?

Natural gas will happen. It is when, not if. As t Boone Pickens says, it is a bridge to renewable energy like solar, etc. Solar, wind, etc are the future. The thing is, the tech is not mature enough yet regarding solar. Wind has issue to. Large scale vertical axis wind turbines are the tech that really needs development. Read on that here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_turbine