SSSnail
Lifer
- Nov 29, 2006
- 17,458
- 83
- 86
selling all my FAIRX tonight...Bruce is way too heavy into financial stocks, and now is just now getting into China stocks, a few yrs too late, it's getting too risky as a mutual fund and I think I can probably do better on my own. I made about $2k before commission for holding it less than a yr.
The Daily Reckoning - A Birthday for the Bull Market
A nice article showing some parallels between the returns of our two year bull market with 1936. The article then goes on to describe the "depression with a depression" in 1937 with a reference that this is what may happen next with our current market.
A nice article showing some parallels between the returns of our two year bull market with 1936. The article then goes on to describe the "depression with a depression" in 1937 with a reference that this is what may happen next with our current market.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
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JNJ under $60. Sold off my Safeway (SWY) which is undervalued in my opinion and added more JNJ.
About 25% JNJ right now. I wonder how Mr Market will react to record earnings, revenues and FCF 1-2 years from now. For thsoe that look at headlines, yes there is a big problem with hip repalcements. It's big in the news but small to a comapny the size of JNJ. Might dent FCF but only by 10% or so. But that 10% spread over 10 years is meaningless.
I'm planning on selling off half of me SD position if SD gets in the mid $11s again.
About 25% JNJ right now. I wonder how Mr Market will react to record earnings, revenues and FCF 1-2 years from now. For thsoe that look at headlines, yes there is a big problem with hip repalcements. It's big in the news but small to a comapny the size of JNJ. Might dent FCF but only by 10% or so. But that 10% spread over 10 years is meaningless.
I'm planning on selling off half of me SD position if SD gets in the mid $11s again.
bought some CIGX @2.29..good news leaked with the patents and no PR from the company yet just like last time.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
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Quickly evolving company. can not determine FCFs out 10 yeras from now due to this. It's easier to see 10 years into the future when talking a PG. So, in short it is in my to hard pile. Regardless of how glamorous it may seem, I don't understand it. I don't think most people do. Boring stocks (understandable to you) that are cheap are the way to go. If you csan understand where Intel is going to be in 10 years, invest in it (at the right buy in price).
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KB
Diamond Member
- Nov 8, 1999
- 5,406
- 389
- 126
I own some Intel in my portfolio.
Take a look at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=INTC+Key+Statistics
Check out their Total Cash per share of $3.99, meaning they have been hoarding cash. I can't see them buying additional companies (they had gone on a buying spree), so this means they could start sharing it with shareholders in the form of increasing dividends and share buybacks. With that much cash they could pay their current dividend yield for years even if they just broke even.
Things haven't been all rosy for Intel in the short term. They had an issue with a chipset recently and analysts believe they may not meet earnings estimates this quarter on sluggish PC sales (I disagree with these analysts), but long term this is a safe stock and thats why it hasn't seen the volatility many other stocks have.
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
- 18,828
- 184
- 106
I'm waiting on some money to clear and then fill my brokerage for this purpose. Been tense watching it the past couple of weeks wondering if I was going to get a chance to get back in under 15, hoping I can still do that next week!
I'm just hoping to recover most of the $1200 I've lost so far on Ford. Only thing making me fresh money right now is AXP. It's recovery-mode for the rest. Luckily, it's profit-recovery.
jessieqwert
Senior member
- Jun 21, 2003
- 955
- 1
- 81
Jumped on some Flowserve (FLS) this morning. Strong company with great products. Undervalued at this time, expect to see $130 again shortly.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
So what companies will do well in the reconstruction of Japan?
CAT should get a boost, if indirectly, Jacobs Engineering?
CAT should get a boost, if indirectly, Jacobs Engineering?
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,788
- 126
FelixDeCat
Lifer
- Aug 4, 2000
- 31,274
- 2,788
- 126
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Futures are down 1.5% right now.
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Currently about 10% cash and 30% JNJ. If JNJ does what it did on the last dip whcih was largely nothing, I'll have a nice hedge ;-)
Current holdings (percents are estimates):
30% JNJ
14% MAS
12% USG
12% SD (want to sell about half as I am up about 45%)
10% cash
---------
80% total (estimate)
Small pieces of:
FBN
LEE (buy more in the low $2s)
JNJ Calls (LEAPS)
GE (buy more at about $18)
Wisdom from yester-years ... If the Dow does hit 10,000 again, that JNJ is gone assuming it is still at $55+. Last time around I simply sat on my JNJ stock even thought I thought about selling.JNJ went no where while I had other holdings that doubled.
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Currently about 10% cash and 30% JNJ. If JNJ does what it did on the last dip whcih was largely nothing, I'll have a nice hedge ;-)
Current holdings (percents are estimates):
30% JNJ
14% MAS
12% USG
12% SD (want to sell about half as I am up about 45%)
10% cash
---------
80% total (estimate)
Small pieces of:
FBN
LEE (buy more in the low $2s)
JNJ Calls (LEAPS)
GE (buy more at about $18)
Wisdom from yester-years ... If the Dow does hit 10,000 again, that JNJ is gone assuming it is still at $55+. Last time around I simply sat on my JNJ stock even thought I thought about selling.JNJ went no where while I had other holdings that doubled.
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At least in the short term, you aren't concerned about the FDA 'consent decree'? I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on that. I thinking of getting into JNJ, but I am unsure of the seriousness of the FDA having to step in and oversee JNJ's plants. When this has happened in the past (to other companies), it seems like the seriousness has varied widely... some get their shit together quickly & it's not a big deal; others have severe problems.
Also for Intel, I think a bet for Intel now is a bet against Nvidia. Nvidia wants to step into the server market currently dominated by x86 processors with "Project Denver." They've said this at several conferences, and it's obvious from their manufacturing. In nvidia' settlement with intel in january, nvidia pulled out of making chipsets for intel procs and opened the door to a bunch of cpu technologies they could use to compete with x86. GPGPU also stands poised to take a stab out of Intel/AMD in high-end computing. And at the moment, Intel has shit to show in the small devices/mobile market. What the next gen Atom can do remains to be seen, but there are many ppl out there that think shrinking x86 & making it more efficient is not the path to victory. Lots of ppl are getting behind ARM processors; microsoft for example is putting out windows that runs on ARMs. That said, it's not like intel is retarded and will just ignore the mobile market; they are moving on it. Additionally, the future of mobile devices remains to be seen but many believe it's going to be the future of computing.
I've heard some people in the field say Intel might go the way of DEC or SGI from back in the 90s. That is, big company with a dominant product getting out-maneuvered by smaller guys with new ideas. I don't really agree with that sentiment but it's something to be aware of.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
JNJ has alot of products off the shelves right now. They will be back on the shelves granted it is taking longer than one would want.
The bigger issue is the hip replacements. That could hurt JNJs FCF to the tune of $1-$2 billion. That's not much to JNJ though. that's not even 10% and if you spread the costs (new liability potential) over 10 years it is kinda like being bit by a mosquito. Bothersome but nothing that doesn't let the rest of the company perform like a top athlete.
Back to the products that were recalled. Once they are on the shelves again, they will contribute to FCF again.
With JNJ, I see record revenues in 1-2 years and probably record earnings and record FCF and a dividend that is 10% greater (2 years for the 10% dividend bump).
For a company the size of JNJ, this is all noise. Some changes to the BoD might be needed along with the top execs. I think the board is doing fine though. They reduced bonuses due to the drop in revenues. That is shareholder friendly. But the CEO seems to be less than stellar. Time will tell and hopefully the BoD will address matters for us.
If the markets go up, I'll be happy to go 50% JNJ.
If the markets go down, I can move my JNJ cash into other things.
With any company the size of JNJ, things like this are bound to happen.
Very rarely does a big cap like this come along where you can easily rationalize the idea that the stock should double in 7 years (10%+ annualized gain). I see JNJ being worth somewhere in the $85-$100 range right now. I see a target of $200/share being possible in the year 2020.
As a side note, I have changed my buy in target on PG to about $45. I think PG and JNJ should have similar market caps but current issues with PG might take it to under $50. I am in no rush to buy PG. In a rush to buy JNJ though ;-) Might buy PG though just to diversify. PG does a few things (acquisition autopsies to determine bonuses) that make me smile that not many companies do.
I'd be perfectly content being 50% JNJ. I'm already about 35% JNJ as is.
The bigger issue is the hip replacements. That could hurt JNJs FCF to the tune of $1-$2 billion. That's not much to JNJ though. that's not even 10% and if you spread the costs (new liability potential) over 10 years it is kinda like being bit by a mosquito. Bothersome but nothing that doesn't let the rest of the company perform like a top athlete.
Back to the products that were recalled. Once they are on the shelves again, they will contribute to FCF again.
With JNJ, I see record revenues in 1-2 years and probably record earnings and record FCF and a dividend that is 10% greater (2 years for the 10% dividend bump).
For a company the size of JNJ, this is all noise. Some changes to the BoD might be needed along with the top execs. I think the board is doing fine though. They reduced bonuses due to the drop in revenues. That is shareholder friendly. But the CEO seems to be less than stellar. Time will tell and hopefully the BoD will address matters for us.
If the markets go up, I'll be happy to go 50% JNJ.
If the markets go down, I can move my JNJ cash into other things.
With any company the size of JNJ, things like this are bound to happen.
Very rarely does a big cap like this come along where you can easily rationalize the idea that the stock should double in 7 years (10%+ annualized gain). I see JNJ being worth somewhere in the $85-$100 range right now. I see a target of $200/share being possible in the year 2020.
As a side note, I have changed my buy in target on PG to about $45. I think PG and JNJ should have similar market caps but current issues with PG might take it to under $50. I am in no rush to buy PG. In a rush to buy JNJ though ;-) Might buy PG though just to diversify. PG does a few things (acquisition autopsies to determine bonuses) that make me smile that not many companies do.
I'd be perfectly content being 50% JNJ. I'm already about 35% JNJ as is.
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Currently I'm 75% cash (have been holding cash for almost a month).
I'm waiting for the market to calm down before I jump back in. I haven't brave the option market, hence I'm not betting on the down trend.
I'm waiting for the market to calm down before I jump back in. I haven't brave the option market, hence I'm not betting on the down trend.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
What you describe in Intel is not unique to Intel. It is unique to the whole sector. It is rapidly changing. Picking winners is hard because no one can see 10 years out, let alone 2. Whoever in 2000 said APPL would be a big player in home electronics 10 years later was laughed at. Now, Apple has to fight every 6 months for market dominance. It's a matter of when ... in terms of when they loose the fight. And it will not be 2020 in all likelihood. People spend to much time trying to rationalize why APPL will grow when they should just make a mental note and move on to more understandable companies.
Railroads (for example) may not be as glamorous but at the same time, you know where railroads will be in 20 years.
The easy path is to ignore Intel and the entire sector and focus on things like grocers (Safeway) and railroads and even home building companies (USG).
USG takes dirt (Gypsum) and forms it into 4x8 sheets. It does not get much simpler than that. And it is sold at Home Depot for $6/sheet. It's a matter of when sales recover. I just did a mud room using 10 sheets or so so I am contributing! Anyone can understand USG. Anyone can understand Coke-a-Cola. it's buying at the right price that matters.
Regarding Coke, read bullet #2:
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=120119
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