***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

can somebody help me understand commodity ETFs? lets take USO for example.

Today the NYMEX site shows:
APR 11: 102.60
MAY 11: 103.92
JUN 11: 104.51
JUL 11: 105
AUG 11: 105.13
SEP 11: 105.19

If I buy USO today at 102.60 and keep it for 6 months, am I betting that the price of oil will beat 102.60 or that it will beat 105.19. in other terms, pretend in 6 months, oil is sitting at $100; will my investment in USO reflect a 2.5% loss or a 4.9% loss?

I realize there are variances as USO is not a perfectly efficient track of the actual price of crude oil, but this kind of leads to another question.

In June/july of 2008, USO traded at 90-95% of the price of oil. Today it trades at about 40%. Why the difference?

are there any other gotchas?

Contango and backwardation

 

[richardycc]

yeah don't buy USO

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/blog/5362-uso-oil-usl.html

 

[SunnyD]

Wanting to dump a bit of cash into some stock this week. Any good bets for long-term hold stocks I can get into for the $2-$3 range (or less)? I'm trying to build a portfolio outside of my 401k - before someone bothers to suggest that.

 

[DaWhim]

Wanting to dump a bit of cash into some stock this week. Any good bets for long-term hold stocks I can get into for the $2-$3 range (or less)? I'm trying to build a portfolio outside of my 401k - before someone bothers to suggest that.

ZLCS, take a look at financial statement.

 

[lothar]

can somebody help me understand commodity ETFs? lets take USO for example.

Today the NYMEX site shows:
APR 11: 102.60
MAY 11: 103.92
JUN 11: 104.51
JUL 11: 105
AUG 11: 105.13
SEP 11: 105.19

If I buy USO today at 102.60 and keep it for 6 months, am I betting that the price of oil will beat 102.60 or that it will beat 105.19. in other terms, pretend in 6 months, oil is sitting at $100; will my investment in USO reflect a 2.5% loss or a 4.9% loss?

I realize there are variances as USO is not a perfectly efficient track of the actual price of crude oil, but this kind of leads to another question.

In June/july of 2008, USO traded at 90-95% of the price of oil. Today it trades at about 40%. Why the difference?

are there any other gotchas?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_31/b4189050970461.htm
Read all 7 pages to find out.

 

[Imp]

Stocks doing worse today than they were last Monday and even Tuesday when the shit first hit the fan. All after the biggest gain on the market (DOW) so far this year yesterday. Almost ready to just cut my losses and run, but I know they'll be back up within a month or two... Grrr.

 

[KB]

Stocks doing worse today than they were last Monday and even Tuesday when the shit first hit the fan. All after the biggest gain on the market (DOW) so far this year yesterday. Almost ready to just cut my losses and run, but I know they'll be back up within a month or two... Grrr.

I can only believe the price of oil is rising due to speculators buying up oil. Saudi Arabia said they were going to match any output loss from Libya, but I am not sure when they will start.

I have had those thoughts too. I am not leaving though. April will see another set of improving companies profits.

 

[SunnyD]

Stocks doing worse today than they were last Monday and even Tuesday when the shit first hit the fan. All after the biggest gain on the market (DOW) so far this year yesterday. Almost ready to just cut my losses and run, but I know they'll be back up within a month or two... Grrr.

Exactly why I'm looking for suggestions on who to dump money into...

 

[Imp]

I can only believe the price of oil is rising due to speculators buying up oil. Saudi Arabia said they were going to match any output loss from Libya, but I am not sure when they will start.

I have had those thoughts too. I am not leaving though. April will see another set of improving companies profits.

Something about oil prices rising and stock prices of Exxon Mobil, Chevron barely moving that also makes me guess it's pure speculation.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

Anybody in on SINA? Seems like the fear mongering is gone and people are buying right back into it. Up 5% so far.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Wanting to dump a bit of cash into some stock this week. Any good bets for long-term hold stocks I can get into for the $2-$3 range (or less)? I'm trying to build a portfolio outside of my 401k - before someone bothers to suggest that.

Why $2-$3 range if your cocern is long term?

Since I do have one, ALGI at $1.50 is a pretty good deal.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I can only believe the price of oil is rising due to speculators buying up oil. Saudi Arabia said they were going to match any output loss from Libya, but I am not sure when they will start.

I have had those thoughts too. I am not leaving though. April will see another set of improving companies profits.

Wouldn't OPEC have to approveany increases? It takes more than Saudi Arabia simply snapping their fingers.

Wait till peak oil production hits OPEC. It's not far off. OPil prices are going up for a reason. Costs to extract (Biggest, easiest to get to places extracted first) and refine (easiest to refine stuff was refined first) are going up.

Parenthesized parts are simple economic laws. There is a reason thath e Canadian oil sands are now becoming economical choices granted that extraction is the hard part. That oil is supposed to be easier to refine.

 

[SunnyD]

Why $2-$3 range if your cocern is long term?

Since I do have one, ALGI at $1.50 is a pretty good deal.

Low share price = more shares = more potential bang for the buck. Since I'm thinking long term, I'll thinking higher upside should things take off versus something that's already a decent vested value.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

Quantity of shares means nothing, your net gain/loss will be the same in both percentage and dollar terms.

 

[Imp]

Low share price = more shares = more potential bang for the buck. Since I'm thinking long term, I'll thinking higher upside should things take off versus something that's already a decent vested value.

Share price means nothing without looking at valuation. A $100 Billion dollar single share is essentially the same as a billion $1 shares in terms of company valuation. Companies know investors like smaller numbers under $100, which is partly why they do stock splits.

A 5% stock price increase on $1000 worth of $4 stocks is the same as a 5% increase in $1000 worth of $500 stocks.

Citigroup is priced at about $4.55-ish, Bank of America is $14, JP Morgan is $43, and they all have "similar" valuations.

 

[lothar]

ZLCS, take a look at financial statement.

I just did...Where is the consistency in their earnings?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Low share price = more shares = more potential bang for the buck. Since I'm thinking long term, I'll thinking higher upside should things take off versus something that's already a decent vested value.

There is a difference between price and value. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. Share price is meaningless. Look at things in terms of what a company is worth and what it is selling for (typically the market cap). Thinking in those terms makes investing easier.

Or a better analogy. Take two identical apartment complexes each worth the same amount. Say $1 million. And rents provide another $1 million in dividends.
Complex A has 20 equal partners. Complex B has 10 equal partners.
Complex owner A's share is worth $50,000 and he gets $50,000 in dividends a year.
Complex owner B's share is worth $100,000 and he gets $100,000 in dividends a year.

What you are arguing is that it is better to be an owner in apartment B.
But under both scenarios, 1% of ownership represents worth of $10,000 and $10,000 in dividends.

Just trying to help. But ALGI is something I am looking at. Actually, I was in at $1.50 and out at $1.70. Want to get back in for under $1.50.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Share price means nothing without looking at valuation. A $100 Billion dollar single share is essentially the same as a billion $1 shares in terms of company valuation. Companies know investors like smaller numbers under $100, which is partly why they do stock splits.

A 5% stock price increase on $1000 worth of $4 stocks is the same as a 5% increase in $1000 worth of $500 stocks.

Citigroup is priced at about $4.55-ish, Bank of America is $14, JP Morgan is $43, and they all have "similar" valuations.

Ironically, stock splits cost the company money to do. So doing them actually reducers shareholder value. This is why Buffett is reluctant to split Berkshire stock. He has twice in the past that I know of. One was due to an acquisition (BNI I think) which made it more fair for smaller holders of BNI stock. The other time was when funds (or similar) started to be created to allow people to own a partial share of Berkshire.

Looking at things from Market Cap terms is hte only way to look at a company properly. Also be careful of convertible debt like in the case of USG.

 

[richardycc]

judgement day for HGSI's Benlysta this week....place your bet, place your bet...

 

[SunnyD]

Quantity of shares means nothing, your net gain/loss will be the same in both percentage and dollar terms.

I'm not going to argue it, just roll with it. I have my reasons.

I also have several children to split my shares across should I expire. I keep that in mind as well.

 

[Imp]

So, I've now lost $3300 in 2 weeks. The good thing is that all that came from the rally since November, so principal remains untouched.

I'm also ready to just punch out once I hit $500 above my principal, which may happen by Wednesday. Hoping for a rebound considering it's all because of oil prices, which are overinflated from speculation, but this is getting fucking ridiculous.

Once a single refinery gets sabotaged in Libya, there'll probably be a meltdown.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

With oil easing the markets have reacted accordingly. $100 oil is a psychologically shocking number, if we get down below that number with Lybia settling down then that'll be a good environment for nurturing further equity growth.

Sina has made a remarkable come back over the course of a week. Up about 10% over the course of two days alone, went from $74 to $89 over a week. Hoping to jump back in on a dip tomorrow.

 

[DukeFan21]

HGSI Benlysta approved

 

[eLiu]

HGSI Benlysta approved

http://www.fda.gov/NewsEvents/Newsroom/PressAnnouncements/ucm246489.htm

I got into hgsi 2 years ago right before the pop from 3->12 in one day (THANKS richardcc!). YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! haha

 

[jeffrey]

Go HGSI!

No label restrictions on African-American population.
Price of $35k/yr for treatment is higher than average predicted.