***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[Hugo Drax]

Well, atelast there was time for people with mutual funds in retirement accounts to buy GRPN unknowingly. Thank goodness they were able to fund the wealth generation of the IPO insiders. Good for them!

Phwatttt: trading near $17/share.

My 12 month price target for GRPN is 1.00 dollar

 

[Imp]

Any of them fall about $1 more and I'm buying. Glad to have a little cash for once. Still regretting not sellign a bunch of stock 1-2 weeks ago though.

Oh ya... I was up 15% on a holding a few weeks back. Currently -15% and falling...

Want to keep adding to my positions, but I want free money as mental insurance.

 

[Hugo Drax]

My short SPY 117 december puts are ITM by 23 cents AH but thats okay I sold the contracts at 3.72 BEP is 113.28. Dec IWM 68 puts also ITM, those sold for 2.91 a contract, BEP 65.09

Lets see what happens december 19. I could be the proud owner of long IWM and SPY or it expires OTM.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Liquidating all my positions tomorrow while I'm still down only about 10%. Going to start day trading. "investing" seems to be for suckers -- at least in a market where any bullshit piece of bad news suddenly tanks perfectly good companies.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Groupon had nothing that couldn't be copied, by everyone, from Google to Jim Bob's local deals..

 

[Imp]

Great morning to buy for some short term gains. MSFT looking beautiful right now, just see one year chart.

 

[zimu]

Great morning to buy for some short term gains. MSFT looking beautiful right now, just see one year chart.

hoping you're basing this on more than the up + downs in the 1 year chart

Good call though. They also pay out dividends some time early december.

 

[Imp]

hoping you're basing this on more than the up + downs in the 1 year chart

Good call though. They also pay out dividends some time early december.

Totally basing it on the 1 year chart - I week/month trade. They haven't dipped below $23.50-ish in the past year, and they even bucked the trend during the post-August crash. We're at $24.50-ish now.

And they're a solid tech-co, so even if I'm wrong, there's a 2-3% dividend, and they probably won't pull a RIMM any time soon.

 

[zimu]

Totally basing it on the 1 year chart - I week/month trade. They haven't dipped below $23.50-ish in the past year, and they even bucked the trend during the post-August crash. We're at $24.50-ish now.

And they're a solid tech-co, so even if I'm wrong, there's a 2-3% dividend, and they probably won't pull a RIMM any time soon.

LOL fair enough! I guess in this economic climate any analyst predictions are a joke, and even something that feels like it should be 30% higher is a gamble to purchase.

I got in at MSFT back when it was in the 17s so have already made quite a buck - even on dividends alone. I guess I like their product and have faith in them, and so am happy to put my money behind my liking, and so far it's paying off!

 

[Pliablemoose]

LOL, in and out of AAPL 550 shares 369.10/370.10

It was more $ than I made at work today...

Waiting for AAPL to dip below 360, maybe 350 and I'll stay for a few weeks, let the price ramp up before earnings...

 

[Hugo Drax]

Both my short IWM and SPY short put positions are deep in the money for now. I could potentially be long the underlying come expiration friday december

My short call positions on IWM and SPY though are pretty OTM for now.

All good. Make money selling derivative bullets to the bigboys in Wallstreet. I am just the general store owner getting my(L.P) beak wet in the meantime.

Hopefully the next 4 years we get the same government mismanagement, Euro mess and markets stay sideways

 

[Nerva]

Both my short IWM and SPY short put positions are deep in the money for now. I could potentially be long the underlying come expiration friday december

My short call positions on IWM and SPY though are pretty OTM for now.

All good. Make money selling derivative bullets to the bigboys in Wallstreet. I am just the general store owner getting my(L.P) beak wet in the meantime.

Hopefully the next 4 years we get the same government mismanagement, Euro mess and markets stay sideways

are you serious? they make the markets. they dont give a shit about you

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Both my short IWM and SPY short put positions are deep in the money for now. I could potentially be long the underlying come expiration friday december

My short call positions on IWM and SPY though are pretty OTM for now.

All good. Make money selling derivative bullets to the bigboys in Wallstreet. I am just the general store owner getting my(L.P) beak wet in the meantime.

Hopefully the next 4 years we get the same government mismanagement, Euro mess and markets stay sideways

The gov't isn't doing that bad. But ... what we need to do is kick every incumbent Congressman out of office. That will not happen though barring a miracle.

The Euro will be resolved. It has to be.

Dow should go up from here, especially over 4 years. Thesis is two part. (1) Stock prices are too low given the current economy. A 10%+ uiptick is deserved. (2) And housing will recover in that time period. Watch rail time indicators and USGs quarterly release on their sqft of drywall shipped.

 

[chusteczka]

... what we need to do is kick every incumbent Congressman out of office.

Agree completely! :thumbsup:

The Euro will be resolved. It has to be.

Dow should go up from here, especially over 4 years. Thesis is two part. (1) Stock prices are too low given the current economy. A 10%+ uiptick is deserved. (2) And housing will recover in that time period. Watch rail time indicators and USGs quarterly release on their sqft of drywall shipped.

Disagree completely! :thumbsdown:

1. I believe the market is overpriced with a 20% drop being well deserved.
2. Housing will take longer than 6 years to recover.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Agree completely! :thumbsup:



Disagree completely! :thumbsdown:

1. I believe the market is overpriced with a 20% drop being well deserved.
2. Housing will take longer than 6 years to recover.

Agreed, I think the current economy is the new "normal"

And housing isn't coming back any time soon with no jobs.

 

[chusteczka]

It is possible that certain depressed sectors, such as housing and stock in USG, may see a 10% increase. Overall, I see an impending downward trend but there are stock prices for companies that have already hit bottom. Although if/when the market drops again, those at bottom will drop a corresponding amount.

 

[KB]

Liquidating all my positions tomorrow while I'm still down only about 10%. Going to start day trading. "investing" seems to be for suckers -- at least in a market where any bullshit piece of bad news suddenly tanks perfectly good companies.

I hope you didn't sell Friday as the market will have a big up today. It may be a good time to sell today as I don't think Europe has their problem solved. Adding more debt to an already over indebted nation is not a good resolution.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Agreed, I think the current economy is the new "normal"

And housing isn't coming back any time soon with no jobs.

The lumber numbers for last month in the Rail Time indicators report are interesting. Very curious about what next month will bring for numbers.

I'm actually starting to see new homes being built again in Western NY (Buffalo) and a few in CT. In Western NY, there have been 3 dormant new home developments where construction just stopped 3 years ago (I drive by them every 3 months or so when I visit family). That's not shocking. Shocking is that I was there for Thanksgiving and every site is now active again. Even saw a few newly finished homes that seem to be occupied.

Homes will be bult on spec. That process will put the 25% of unemployed people in residential construction back to work. That will also drive down the 15% or so unemployment level of people out of work in the manufacturing sector.

It's not that it won't happen ... a housing led recovery. It's just that it hasn't happened this way in a while.

Fact is, housing starts are up year to year:
http://www.census.gov/const/bpua.pdf

Building start data for the past 12 months:

month	year	total	single	2-4 unit	5+ unit
Nov	2010	-2.9%	-7.2%	-19.0%	18.5%
Dec	2010	-3.3%	-11.8%	42.9%	14.5%
Jan	2011	-10.9%	-16.2%	-7.7%	11.8%
Feb	2011	-17.9%	-25.1%	-28.6%	14.1%
Mar	2011	-16.2%	-26.1%	-36.4%	33.6%
Apr	2011	-15.3%	-20.0%	12.5%	0.0%
May	2011	10.2%	-1.8%	5.9%	61.1%
Jun	2011	5.4%	-4.7%	-4.8%	38.0%
Jul	2011	-0.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	16.4%
Aug	2011	13.4%	9.7%	31.6%	21.4%
Sep	2011	6.8%	3.8%	-21.7%	21.8%
Oct	2011	16.1%	6.7%	0.0%	48.5%

Percentages are the year-year change in huosing starts. Notice the last 3-6 months. Warren Buffett has said that housing will turn and turn faster than anyone expects. Is this a sign of it?

 

[JTsyo]

LOL, in and out of AAPL 550 shares 369.10/370.10

It was more $ than I made at work today...

Waiting for AAPL to dip below 360, maybe 350 and I'll stay for a few weeks, let the price ramp up before earnings...

Why pick apple for the quick in/out? Wouldn't a cheaper stock make more sense?

 

[JTsyo]

The lumber numbers for last month in the Rail Time indicators report are interesting. Very curious about what next month will bring for numbers.

I'm actually starting to see new homes being built again in Western NY (Buffalo) and a few in CT. In Western NY, there have been 3 dormant new home developments where construction just stopped 3 years ago (I drive by them every 3 months or so when I visit family). That's not shocking. Shocking is that I was there for Thanksgiving and every site is now active again. Even saw a few newly finished homes that seem to be occupied.

Homes will be bult on spec. That process will put the 25% of unemployed people in residential construction back to work. That will also drive down the 15% or so unemployment level of people out of work in the manufacturing sector.

It's not that it won't happen ... a housing led recovery. It's just that it hasn't happened this way in a while.

Fact is, housing starts are up year to year:
http://www.census.gov/const/bpua.pdf

Building start data for the past 12 months:

month	year	total	single	2-4 unit	5+ unit
Nov	2010	-2.9%	-7.2%	-19.0%	18.5%
Dec	2010	-3.3%	-11.8%	42.9%	14.5%
Jan	2011	-10.9%	-16.2%	-7.7%	11.8%
Feb	2011	-17.9%	-25.1%	-28.6%	14.1%
Mar	2011	-16.2%	-26.1%	-36.4%	33.6%
Apr	2011	-15.3%	-20.0%	12.5%	0.0%
May	2011	10.2%	-1.8%	5.9%	61.1%
Jun	2011	5.4%	-4.7%	-4.8%	38.0%
Jul	2011	-0.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	16.4%
Aug	2011	13.4%	9.7%	31.6%	21.4%
Sep	2011	6.8%	3.8%	-21.7%	21.8%
Oct	2011	16.1%	6.7%	0.0%	48.5%

Percentages are the year-year change in huosing starts. Notice the last 3-6 months. Warren Buffett has said that housing will turn and turn faster than anyone expects. Is this a sign of it?

The percents might be misleading since it looks like good growth compared to a down year. A comparison to an average over a decade or two might be a better indicator.

 

[Imp]

Why pick apple for the quick in/out? Wouldn't a cheaper stock make more sense?

For me, it'd be stability and a perceived (at the least) sense of continual growth and strength - lower risk, higher chance of moving up. Even if it doesn't, stability would keep losses to a minimum.

Also, I can't think of a solid tech stock with a low absolute price. IBM, GOOG and AAPL are all in the hundreds. MSFT is ~$25, CSCO is ~$17, NVDA is ~$15 (last I checked months ago), and AMD is what, ~$5(?).

Boo ya, been edging in over the past few weeks. Hope it's not a half-assed blip up before another further slide. Deciding whether to keep my 15% cash insurance or just send it in later in the day.

 

[jessieqwert]

Been a while but I'm getting back in to Tata Motors (TTM). Currently at a near record low and should be shielded for the most part from the euro crisis.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

The percents might be misleading since it looks like good growth compared to a down year. A comparison to an average over a decade or two might be a better indicator.

Housing has been down since 2007. The fact that growth is occuring is something to take notice of.

We are at about 600 housing starts Historically, 1.5 million was normal (pre bubble). During the bubble, there was a 1.5 million excess of inventory built. 3 years after the bubble popped, there has been a 1.5+ million deficit in housing starts.

The whole deficit suprlus thing depends on what normal is. IF 1.2 million homes is normal, we do have 5 more years.

The tipping point has to come sooner or later. The tipping point is tied to how many homes shuold have been built from 2002 till current. I view 1.2 million as low. The 1.5 million seems optimistic though.

 

[JS80]

What's with your love for USG? They are cash flow break even and trading 58x EBITDA. Even back when revenues were 58% higher their GP was crap...what am I missing other than your prediction that housing is going to spike up in the next decade?

 

[Ms. DICKINSON]

What do you guys think about BAC? It's a different beast now compare to my interest of the company a few months ago. Now it's sitting near the 52wks low of 5.12. I'm thinking of holding for 6+ months.
Appreciated.