***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[Pliablemoose]

curious, holding AAPL?

Yes, bought some back on Friday, wish I'd have waited

Oh well... At least they do well during economic downturns and have significant overseas sales. The iP5 should be released this quarter and have monster numbers.

I asked my daughter & her BF which phones they want when I bump up to a family plan, both early 20's and in unison they said iPhones... LOL. I'm typing this on a 13" MacBook Air I bought last week, it's an insane laptop, the 11" and 13" Airs will sell like crazy...

 

[manlymatt83]

I have 20 QQQ August puts. I hope those climb tomorrow.

 

[Jeffg010]

DOW down 160 points and my stock I sold on Friday SIRI is down 10% glad I got out!

 

[Pliablemoose]

Just out of curiosity, how do you make money when you sell low again?

 

[tfinch2]

Ugh, VMW is getting hammered. I should have sold my options after the last earnings call.

 

[Jeffg010]

Just out of curiosity, how do you make money when you sell low again?

You asking me? I bought that stock at at 1.07 and held on to that for 1 year 4 months. I did not sell low and I'm saving me a bunch of money watching it drop like a ton of bricks. So I hope you are not saying I sold low. Anyone who had any long term stocks for the last 2 years made money. Why would I stay in and just watch this tank?

 

[darkewaffle]

You asking me? I bought that stock at at 1.07 and held on to that for 1 year 4 months. I did not sell low but I'm saving me a bunch of money watching it drop like a tons of brick. So I hope you are not saying I sold low. Anyone who had any long term stocks for the last 2 years made money. Why would I stay in and just watch this tank?

It's really a matter of whether you think things are going to come back up or not. Selling now kind of implies a belief that "this is the big one" because otherwise you're just selling yourself short when things go back up in the coming weeks/months/year.

 

[SunnyD]

BAC down 10% and falling. I'm sure the $10B lawsuit from AIG isn't helping that along either...

I have 20 QQQ August puts. I hope those climb tomorrow.

Hopefully, otherwise you'll be QQing all the way to the bank. (Sorry, had to)

 

[Jeffg010]

It's really a matter of whether you think things are going to come back up or not. Selling now kind of implies a belief that "this is the big one" because otherwise you're just selling yourself short when things go back up in the coming weeks/months/year.

You are assuming I will not jump back in.

 

[KentState]

It's really a matter of whether you think things are going to come back up or not. Selling now kind of implies a belief that "this is the big one" because otherwise you're just selling yourself short when things go back up in the coming weeks/months/year.

Or you can buy the stock back at a much lower point. If done correctly, that could be a 10-20% boost on your money minus brokerage fees.

 

[dullard]

Just out of curiosity, how do you make money when you sell low again?

There are four ways of making money in stocks. The riskiest of them all involves selling low. You do it by selling low and buying even lower. If you pull it off, you can make a lot of money doing it. But, you can very easilly screw it up.

Suppose a stock is at $10/share. You have or buy 100 shares worth $1000. It drops to $4 and eventually returns to $10.

Scenario 1: You hold on to it. After a wild rollercoaster you have 100 shares worth $10 for a total of $1000. Net gain: nothing.

Scenario 2: You sell low at $8/share. You now have $800. You later buy in at $5/share. You now have 160 shares. Sure you sold low and you didn't even buy in again right at the bottom. But it does eventually go back to $10 and you now have $1600 worth of shares.

In Scenario 2 you made a 60% gain by selling low and buying lower. You also get to claim a $200 loss on your taxes from the initial drop from $1000 to $800. Of course that is offset by a later larger gain, but that tax offset now can come in handy.

 

[KentState]

In Scenario 2 you made a 60% gain by selling low and buying lower. You also get to claim a $200 loss on your taxes from the initial drop from $1000 to $800. Of course that is offset by a later larger gain, but that tax offset now can come in handy.

Basically you only pay taxes on the gains over the first $1000 investment depending on how long you hold them.

 

[SunnyD]

Out of curiosity, are stocks like AIG worth going after if they sink low enough? Given that they were "Too big to fail*", are they tainted at this point for long term holds?

 

[Kntx]

Anyone see cramer the other day talking about FUN? The gist of his argument is that it is a secret high yielder. Dividend will be increased to $1 per year by the end of 2011, then to $2 in 2012.

 

[Imp]

Out of curiosity, are stocks like AIG worth going after if they sink low enough? Given that they were "Too big to fail*", are they tainted at this point for long term holds?

My belief is that it's in worse shape than BAC. I bought it in December last year during the huge rally, up 10% one day, down 6% the next. Lost only $40 thank goodness. That was when it was $50. It owes a lot of money, and I think they finally managed to turn a slight profit this past quarter - first time since bailout?

 

[SunnyD]

My belief is that it's in worse shape than BAC. I bought it in December last year during the huge rally, up 10% one day, down 6% the next. Lost only $40 thank goodness. That was when it was $50. It owes a lot of money, and I think they finally managed to turn a slight profit this past quarter - first time since bailout?

I'm not really asking about which is in worse shape. I'm asking more in terms of are they (AIG) worthwhile picks for long term holds. Assuming that we're going to slide for the next 6 months until we bottom out, and then hopefully nowhere to go but up... are we looking at a stable enough company that will generate earnings over the next 10 years? Obviously not a cornerstone of blue-chip land anymore, but I would think that the risk-to-gain potential is big enough to consider, which is why I'm curious about it.

 

[manlymatt83]

My QQQ puts are up 250%. Will the market definitely keep going down tomorrow, or should I sell today? Or set a stop loss?

 

[SunnyD]

My QQQ puts are up 250%. Will the market definitely keep going down tomorrow, or should I sell today? Or set a stop loss?

I am not a financial analyst nor a gypsy... but I expect to see the market go down about 100-150 points tomorrow in some mixed trading. But that depends on what happens this afternoon.

Are the buyers going to come swooping in in the next hour or so to pick up a ton of the losers today? If so, there will be a profit taking sell off in the morning. If not, then odds are there will be a mixed day tomorrow as the players decide whether the bottom is closer or farther away.

I personally expect to see a general downward trend with a few hiccups over the next 6 months. Take that for what its worth. I'm a non-player in this game (for now).

 

[Ns1]

Moving out of bonds/cap preservation into stocks.

anyone got a suggestion/thoughts? here are my options. I'm thinking 50% large cap equity and 50% aggressive growth equity.

Blended Fund Investments*

AGGRESSIVE FUND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 18.12 3.61 2.80 N/A 3.44 07/31/2011
CONSERVATIVE FUND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 7.71 5.41 4.44 N/A 4.40 07/31/2011
GROWTH FUND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 15.01 5.41 3.89 N/A 4.20 07/31/2011
MODERATE FUND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 12.13 6.65 4.63 N/A 4.63 07/31/2011
Other Investments
BROKERAGELINK N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

CORE OPTIONS
Stock Investments
Large Cap
DODGE & COX STOCK
Inception Date 01/04/1965 17.53 0.55 -0.83 4.70 10.76 07/31/2011
LARGE CAP EQUITY
Inception Date 09/26/2005 12.13 -2.79 -6.23 N/A -5.64 07/31/2011
LARGE CAP GROWTH
Inception Date 09/26/2005 28.89 5.72 5.16 N/A 4.26 07/31/2011
S&P 500 INDEX
Inception Date 09/26/2005 19.72 3.03 2.43 N/A 3.20 07/31/2011
Small Cap
SMALL CAP BLEND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 31.42 8.92 5.03 N/A 4.66 07/31/2011
SMALL CAP INDEX
Inception Date 09/26/2005 26.02 6.62 5.47 N/A 5.86 07/31/2011
International
INTERNATIONAL EQUITY
Inception Date 09/26/2005 11.71 -7.08 -2.89 N/A 0.03 07/31/2011
INTERNATIONAL INDEX
Inception Date 09/26/2005 17.41 -0.85 1.07 N/A 3.66 07/31/2011
Other
AGGRESSIVE GROWTH EQ
Inception Date 01/10/1989 14.79 -0.32 2.72 4.20 13.82 07/31/2011
Bond/Managed Income
Stable Value
* CAPITAL PRESERVATION
Inception Date 12/30/1988 2.58 2.95 3.73 4.36 6.01 07/31/2011
Income
DIVERSIFIED BOND
Inception Date 09/26/2005 6.08 8.25 5.51 N/A 4.96 07/31/2011
* BOND INDEX
Inception Date 09/26/2005 4.45 6.96 6.50 N/A 5.72 07/31/2011
Market Indices*
BC Agg Bond Index 4.44 7.05 6.57 5.68 N/A 07/31/2011
BC Government Bond Index 3.21 5.17 5.90 4.92 N/A 07/31/2011
BC Gov't Bond Index 3.26 5.52 6.19 5.33 N/A 07/31/2011

 

[SunnyD]

Moving out of bonds/cap preservation into stocks.

anyone got a suggestion/thoughts? here are my options. I'm thinking 50% large cap equity and 50% aggressive growth equity.
...

I think it's too early for this move yet.

 

[Ns1]

I think it's too early for this move yet.

I missed the last dow 10k so i'd rather get in sooner vs later (i'm only 28 investing in the far, far future)

the question will remain whether i move into stocks now or later.

//edit

holy shit, -500 now

 

[SunnyD]

I missed the last dow 10k so i'd rather get in sooner vs later (i'm only 28 investing in the far, far future)

the question will remain whether i move into stocks now or later.

I mean immediate term... I understand you're looking long term. You're still likely to lose money for the next few days at least before things even look like they start to stabilize. The question is how much. My guess - probably another 10% minimum before the week is done. I don't know how much you have to move, but if that 10% is any sort of significant amount, I'd wait at least until things appear to level out.

 

[Imp]

Bottom has fallen off.

DOW was down 600 points for a bit. People were expecting QE3 or something from Obama's press conference?

 

[snoopdoug1]

Bottom has fallen off.

DOW was down 600 points for a bit. People were expecting QE3 or something from Obama's press conference?

I hope not. I'm not surprised it's down this far...

 

[TheNinja]

F....