***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[TheNinja]

I'm in ZSL (double silver short) until it reaches $40/share (where it was just a few months ago). You are correct. The run up from $13/share to nearly $18/share has been fun. It is nice to see your account balance go up nearly 40% in a couple of days.

You think ZSL is going to $40?

 

[dullard]

You think ZSL is going to $40?

I think it'll eventually go much higher than it is now. It might not go straight to $40, but it'll get there when the whole bubble pops. It was at about $40 for all of Dec 2010, Jan 2011, and half of Feb 2011. There isn't that much of a difference in actual silver demand now than there was then. There was a supply interruption recently with a silver mine collapse, but the silver supply is sufficient to meet demand. I see no real reason that ZSL won't go back to the $40 that it had settled into just recently.

The downside is that silver price goes to infinity and ZSL goes to $0. The upside is that silver returns to where it was a couple years ago and ZSL goes back to where it started: $1000/share (minus ProShare's fees). I don't expect it to reach $1000, but I do expect the chance of silver returning to normal is greater than the chance of silver going to infinity. That is why I bought in on this dip and I'm holding out until at least $40/share.

Silver is a speculators bubble right now. That bubble will pop eventually. I may be in way too soon. But it isn't much money (it is just 1% of my total taxable investments) and I'm willing to wait.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Until our divided, partisan government can find a way to substantially reduce our budget, our debt delima continues to fuel a rise in commodities including gold, silver and oil. I think the price of silver has a lot of gains to digest, but as we have seen, even the slightest bit of news can cause a 10% rally in days (short covering, etc).

As America spends its fifteen trillionth borrowed dollar ($15,000,000,000,000,000) soon with no end in sight, what we all fear will undoubtedly happen - a collapse or near cancellation of the Dollar to 1/20th of its face value.

However, according to my observations there is now sufficient reason for greater optimism. The debt delima is now the primary focus of Washington. In the meantime I think we see $65 silver before $35.

Although the miracle of a balanced budget does not reduce outstanding debt that currently requires $1 trillion dollars a year to service.

How do we pay it back?

HOW?

We wont. It will be easier to default. And when we do, heaven help us.

 

[rcpratt]

fifteen trillionth borrowed dollar ($15,000,000,000,000,000)

:hmm:

 

[dullard]

As America spends its fifteen trillionth borrowed dollar ($15,000,000,000,000,000) soon with no end in sight, what we all fear will undoubtedly happen - a collapse or near cancellation of the Dollar to 1/20th of its face value.
...
How do we pay it back?

Be careful not to let political feelings get in the way of stock market projections. That type of thinking has led many people to lose their fortunes.

1) We knew we'd soon reach $15 trillion in debt back in Sept 2010, and silver was $20/ounce. We knew we'd soon reach $15 trillion in debt back last Friday, and silver was $45/ounce. The conclusion is knowledge of the debt level didn't change but the price of silver did. They aren't correlated. Yet you built a whole theory around a correlation that doesn't exist.

2) The key statistic is not the amount of debt, but the debt to GDP ratio. We are at a high ratio now, but it isn't extreme. We've been noticibly higher in the past and we paid it down to managable levels without much trouble. So have other countries. If we were at $45 trillion debt with the same $14 trillion GDP, then you'd have a point. But we aren't. We are at a quite managable level now. The key is to only let debt go up slowly from here on out (at or lower than the rate of GDP growth). Or even better, start reducing the debt.

3) How? By taxing the level we should tax (not tax cut after tax cut which is all that we've done in the last 10 years). By stopping the unfunded massive future promisses (government pensions, medicare, prescription drugs). By limiting completely wasted spending (about 10% of that debt is the recent wars and that doesn't include future costs or interest and we really haven't gained much security). By actually investing in the future growth (actual tangible benefits like power grid upgrades and power plants, not intangibles like "more education").

Inflation isn't the only way out. We got out before without the dollar dropping to 1/20th of its value. The dollar is a bit low now, but it was just as low before this mess (the dollar/Euro ratio is roughly the same now as it was in 2009, 2007, and 2005).

 

[FelixDeCat]

:hmm:

With such an astronomical amount of debt to account for, the zereos tend to get out of hand.

Be careful not to let political feelings get in the way of stock market projections. That type of thinking has led many people to lose their fortunes.

1) We knew we'd soon reach $15 trillion in debt back in Sept 2010, and silver was $20/ounce. We knew we'd soon reach $15 trillion in debt back last Friday, and silver was $45/ounce. The conclusion is knowledge of the debt level didn't change but the price of silver did. They aren't correlated. Yet you built a whole theory around a correlation that doesn't exist.

2) The key statistic is not the amount of debt, but the debt to GDP ratio. We are at a high ratio now, but it isn't extreme. We've been noticibly higher in the past and we paid it down to managable levels without much trouble. So have other countries. If we were at $45 trillion debt with the same $14 trillion GDP, then you'd have a point. But we aren't. We are at a quite managable level now. The key is to only let debt go up slowly from here on out (at or lower than the rate of GDP growth). Or even better, start reducing the debt.

3) How? By taxing the level we should tax (not tax cut after tax cut which is all that we've done in the last 10 years). By stopping the unfunded massive future promisses (government pensions, medicare, prescription drugs). By limiting completely wasted spending (about 10% of that debt is the recent wars and that doesn't include future costs or interest and we really haven't gained much security). By actually investing in the future growth (actual tangible benefits like power grid upgrades and power plants, not intangibles like "more education").

Inflation isn't the only way out. We got out before without the dollar dropping to 1/20th of its value. The dollar is a bit low now, but it was just as low before this mess (the dollar/Euro ratio is roughly the same now as it was in 2009, 2007, and 2005).

You make some valid points, and I mostly agree with you. But I have heard that "debt to GDP" hogwash now for 25+ years and we have yet to pay back one damn dime. They've just used it as an EXCUSE to take on unfathomable amounts of debt and to lull the ignorant into acceptance of this immoral outrage! We should be all be ashamed of what has happened not accepting of it. It is unaccecptable and inexcusable to have accumulated so much debt and have nothing to show for it. Disgusting.

If someone stood before me and said "debt to GDP", I would immediatley begin to punch them the face for several minutes. My position cannot be swayed.

I feel the same way about subrogation. Im a greedy insurance company, but I will sue all parties on your behalf to collect funds that you might otherwise need to live on to cover my losses even though that is the nature of my business - to take on risk in exchange for payment. Now that I can put off that risk on others, all I do is bank those premiums and you can go to hell if you have no way to make a living as a result of your injuries.

Subrogration and "debt to GDP" make sense in theory but are extremely painful in practice. They are both akin to a national swindle. :thumbsdown:

 

[Azurik]

First, I'm flattered by the number of PMs I have received over the past couple days. Forgive me if I can't reply to all of them. However, to get a point across, I am no longer accepting new subscribers at the moment.

Second, regarding our economy. I agree with need to have cutbacks and curb spending. The problem with our divided government is that, it's divided. And there are so many special interest groups who will cry if their funding gets cut and no one wants to do it since it would be unfavorable to them. Although, at this point, I'd rather be holding the dollar than the euro. At least we can manipulate our dollar. The eurozone can't do this to fix one country withing f'ing up another member country. This is the problem with a common currency across a span of countries.

 

[LegendKiller]

With such an astronomical amount of debt to account for, the zereos tend to get out of hand.



You make some valid points, and I mostly agree with you. But I have heard that "debt to GDP" hogwash now for 25+ years and we have yet to pay back one damn dime. They've just used it as an EXCUSE to take on unfathomable amounts of debt and to lull the ignorant into acceptance of this immoral outrage! We should be all be ashamed of what has happened not accepting of it. It is unaccecptable and inexcusable to have accumulated so much debt and have nothing to show for it. Disgusting.

If someone stood before me and said "debt to GDP", I would immediatley begin to punch them the face for several minutes. My position cannot be swayed.

I feel the same way about subrogation. Im a greedy insurance company, but I will sue all parties on your behalf to collect funds that you might otherwise need to live on to cover my losses even though that is the nature of my business - to take on risk in exchange for payment. Now that I can put off that risk on others, all I do is bank those premiums and you can go to hell if you have no way to make a living as a result of your injuries.

Subrogration and "debt to GDP" make sense in theory but are extremely painful in practice. They are both akin to a national swindle. :thumbsdown:

You can lay off the hyperbole a bit. There's nothing wrong with debt, nor increasing debt, just overburdensome debt and we aren't even close to that yet. Not to mention, this whole debt issue is every major current-account surplus country's fault. They keep the pegs and/or currency manipulation going to fuel their own export economies at the cost of US jobs and US taxes, our deficit would be far less had they not done this. Debasement of the USD helps stop this, regardless of what pundits say.

Any haircut in debt or debasement of the USD will be a net deflationary event.

There is no major upside to physical metals. You'll see $30 far quicker than you'll see $65 in silver.

Azurik is corect - there is no replacement for the USD for reserve currency status. The AUD has massive problems and a soon to be bust in housing. The CAD most likely the same. The Euro has massive problems, as Mish (who I disagree with more than agree) puts it, the ECB is running a one-size-fits-germany stance, this is going to be extremely hurtful for the rest of the EU countries. This whole pan-Asia currency is going to be hogwash.

 

[richardycc]

finally bought some KV.A @ 2.95, hope this is the bottom.

 

[AUMM]

SD earnings coming out the 6th....might be a good buy with the recent dip...

 

[FelixDeCat]

However, according to my observations there is now sufficient reason for greater optimism. The debt delima is now the primary focus of Washington. In the meantime I think we see $65 silver before $35.

I was unaware of this and therefore altering my silver prediction in light of this news:

Silver has plunged 20 percent in recent days, in part due to the sharp increase in the amount of money investors are required to put down to buy the metal.

The whole commodity sector, in fact, is going through a major pullback this week as worries about a slowdown in the global economy are prompting investors to scale back on risky trades.

But while the selloff in silver, at least, is being linked partly to higher margins, oil prices move on more fundamental reasons such as supply and demand. Oil was lower on Wednesday, for instance, because of a bigger-than-expected increase in US crude supplies.

As silver speculation rampaged and drove prices of the white metal to near $50 an ounce, exchanges took stern measures to rein in the trade. The COMEX on Wednesday raised its margin requirements for the third day in a row-from $14,513 to $16,200 for initial margin and $10,750 to $12,000 for maintenance margin-which represents nearly a tripling in the cost since February.

The higher margin rules, as well as an unwinding in positions within high-volume exchange-traded funds, has driven silver to lows it hasnt seen since April. -CNBC

Once people selloff positions to adjust to having to put up more to purchase silver, I think we stabilize around $30 then eventually climb back to $50+ later this year.

 

[LegendKiller]

I was unaware of this and therefore altering my silver prediction in light of this news:



Once people selloff positions to adjust to having to put up more to purchase silver, I think we stabilize around $30 then eventually climb back to $50+ later this year.

Thank god they have raised margin requirements. It shoves entire classes of speculators out of something they have no business being in. The only thing it harms is the people who have business being there fur specific hedging purposes, however, the futures casino makes them the minority. The speculators should be just as willing to purchase the contracts on a less leveraged basis as they did on a leveraged one since "inflation" is such a sure thing.

Commodity speculators on low margin are akin to NINJA borrowers.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You can lay off the hyperbole a bit. There's nothing wrong with debt, nor increasing debt, just overburdensome debt and we aren't even close to that yet.

Theres nothing wrong with debt - as long as you pay it off. We wont and never will. Not one damn penny. Ever. You know it, I know it, the government knows it. Its a joke.

And I will not rationalize the march to 20 trillion or 40 trillion or whatever you and all the other debt to GDP types happen to think is unreasonable. Do you think that once we reach that point we will in any shape, form or fashion be able to reduce it - at all? We cant even do it now!!!

Debt is evil. It funds unbalanced budgets caused by irresponsible governing. Debt to GDP my ass. I dont want any more damn excuses for bad governing. Lay off the irresponsible spending! If you cant pay for it......YOU CANT HAVE IT!!! But those bastards in Washington dont care because they know people like you are satisfied with any logical explantion to excuse their continued mismanagement and accumulated promises to pay that will never be honored.

Anyone who says our national debt is not overburdonsome, Google "current interest payment on national debt". You will be sent straight to the Treasury dept. Last year we paid close to half a trillion dollars in interest. Our total cash income according to GPOaccess.gov was $2.3 trillion. Having to pay all that interest (increasing every second) pushes us further and further away from a balanced budget that would FINALLY stop the growth of the $15 trillion dollar debt.

In other words its a monster that feeds on itself. We are currently spending around 17% (400m/2.3t) of our cash income to service this debt, which means the money has to come from somewhere or we have to borrow from Peter to pay Paul. Therefore the monster eats again. Recapitalized interest plus even more profligate spending of another $1.5 trillion. We cant pay any of it back now and likely never will. We will default. :'(

Now remember, according to some, we have free reign to continue this annual trainwreck because "debt to GDP" says so. Pay it back? HAHAHHAHAHA! Control our spending? AHHAHAHAHAAAHAHA!

Bullshit.

I hope you dont take any of that personally. Im just get rather passionate arguing against our goal of committing financial suicide and excusing with "debt to GDP" because its "logical".

If I cut off a finger this year, Ill still have nine. I can grasp things with nine fingers. If I cut off another finger next year, Ill still have eight. I can grasp things with eight fingers. Do you see where this is headed? Those fingers arent comming back, just as this debt will likely never be repaid, and we should have never accumulated it IN THE FIRST PLACE.

 

[Jeffg010]

Been in SIRI ($1.03) for the last year and doubled my money. I'm betting it gets to 3 to 4 dollars by the end of the year. When they merged with XM they were not allowed to raise the price for 3 years that is coming to an end. They are on target to have revenue of 3 billion. If they can get their 3 billion debt taken care of then they will be a powerhouse. This stock is hot.

 

[InverseOfNeo]

Been in SIRI ($1.03) for the last year and doubled my money. I'm betting it gets to 3 to 4 dollars by the end of the year. When they merged with XM they were not allowed to raise the price for 3 years that is coming to an end. They are on target to have revenue of 3 billion. If they can get their 3 billion debt taken care of then they will be a powerhouse. This stock is hot.

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that they weren't able to raise the price of their subscriptions? In a subscriber based market, a way to make more money is to lower your price so you'll get more subscribers. Most of the people I know don't subscribe to Sirius/XM because it is expensive ($12-15/month). On top of that, we all know that they are hurting for subscribers so raising the price won't help them get more.

On a side note, every time I have called to cancel my subscription they have offered me a discounted rate which comes out to less than $3/month. Seems like they are pretty desperate to retain customers.

In my opinion, based on what I've said this is not a worthwhile long-term investment. I just don't see it.

 

[Jeffg010]

Let me get this straight. Are you saying that they weren't able to raise the price of their subscriptions? In a subscriber based market, a way to make more money is to lower your price so you'll get more subscribers. Most of the people I know don't subscribe to Sirius/XM because it is expensive ($12-15/month). On top of that, we all know that they are hurting for subscribers so raising the price won't help them get more.

On a side note, every time I have called to cancel my subscription they have offered me a discounted rate which comes out to less than $3/month. Seems like they are pretty desperate to retain customers.

In my opinion, based on what I've said this is not a worthwhile long-term investment. I just don't see it.

118% increase in subscribers

http://seekingalpha.com/article/267...vindicated-with-no-sell-off?source=yahoo&vm=r

"We are very pleased to report another strong quarter of subscriber revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth together with improving margins and increasing cash flow. We added 118% more subscribers in Q1 2011 than in Q1 2010. Net subscriber additions of more than 373,000 represented the strongest first quarter subscriber growth in the 3 years since Q1 2008.”

There is a lot of haters on this stock I'm going long on this we will see what happens.

 

[TheNinja]

I'm in ZSL (double silver short) until it reaches $40/share (where it was just a few months ago). You are correct. The run up from $13/share to nearly $18/share has been fun. It is nice to see your account balance go up nearly 40% in a couple of days.

Nice call on that. Up 15% on it right now. Deciding if I should take some profits or not.....hmmmm.

edit: Took profits. - in yesterday at 19.50 out today at 22.50. I might miss a huge upswing, but nobody ever went broke taking profits. This is just my "extra" money not my investments. So I"m just trying to make a couple hundred bucks every month or so.

 

[endervalentine]

Is DNDN just teasing me? dumped a good chunk in on Monday, it drops on Wednesday, put another good chunk and it drops again. Looks like a good time to jump in but not sure how much "all-in" I want to be w/ just one stock. Thoughts?

 

[TheNinja]

Money to be made in oil somewhere after this huge move. Now the only question is...

DTO for double shorting it
USO for long oil

 

[HopJokey]

Is DNDN just teasing me? dumped a good chunk in on Monday, it drops on Wednesday, put another good chunk and it drops again. Looks like a good time to jump in but not sure how much "all-in" I want to be w/ just one stock. Thoughts?

I don't know about it short term as DNDN seems to be a tough stock to trade. Long term I like it a lot (1+ years).

 

[endervalentine]

I don't know about it short term as DNDN seems to be a tough stock to trade. Long term I like it a lot (1+ years).

I'm looking long term too, it's just the little drops the few days are getting me to keep buying up.

 

[Imp]

Market (Dow...) taking dump right now. Let me get this straight: "stocks" don't like it when commodities (oil...) get really expensive, and they don't like it when they get cheaper...

 

[rcpratt]

Pretty crazy day, first the commodities down huge and now the Dow and S&P look like they're going to finish significantly down as well.

 

[Azurik]

Is DNDN just teasing me? dumped a good chunk in on Monday, it drops on Wednesday, put another good chunk and it drops again. Looks like a good time to jump in but not sure how much "all-in" I want to be w/ just one stock. Thoughts?

Well, it also went from low $30's to $44 in about 2 months. I'm still a die hard bull on DNDN. There are 3 other billionaire investors in this with a lot more shares than I own. The earnings had nothing bad in it, and it is operating on schedule. When was the last time you saw a small bio-tech with a breakthrough drug trading only at 3x projected sales?

There are A LOT of players who do not want DNDN to succeed, especially big pharma. It's already approved and the only thing they can do is slow it down. There's also a boatload of shorts.

This company went from virtually $0 revenue last year, is going to earn about $350m-$400m this year (which I think is conservative on their part), $800m+ in 2012 and well over $1 billion onwards. This is only in the U.S. and not counting the ROW (rest of world), which they will probably go at it alone since they've been refusing partners... or get bought out. I am guessing that Provenge sales will peak at $4 billion. By then you can get out or hope that DNDN can apply this method to other drugs and not be just a one-trick pony. Either way, there will be plenty of time to sell at a much higher price than today.

Me buying this in 2009 at $4 was just sheer luck and gambling on the FDA approval. Now that they have a real drug and a revolutionary method of treating cancer, we could be looking at the next future Amgen.

 

[dullard]

Nice call on that. Up 15% on it right now. Deciding if I should take some profits or not.....hmmmm.

edit: Took profits. - in yesterday at 19.50 out today at 22.50. I might miss a huge upswing, but nobody ever went broke taking profits. This is just my "extra" money not my investments. So I"m just trying to make a couple hundred bucks every month or so.

Nice! Glad I could help you get 15% in a day.