*** OFFICIAL 2011 MLB Season Thread ***

[SP33Demon]

They certainly are. And because of the multitude of situations where hitting with RISP doesn't actually change the chances of your team winning (blowouts either way), it's kinda useless to determine who's the most valuable.

I'll personally take Bautista's solo homer in extra innings or his two run homer (while down 3) in the 9th against the Sox with the man on first.



So we just throw out the metric because you don't understand it? You're the one that brought the stat up as a criticism! FG's clutch stat compares how much a guy's contribution to winning % in high leverage situations is compared to their contribution in the average situation. It uses WPA, which accounts for how your PA actually impacted your chances of winning. For example, with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game WPA values a walk the same as a homer - because in either situation it's a walk-off win.



Those are 2010 stats. In 2011 Bautista is hitting .391 in high leverage situations (according to FG, which had his 2010 at .222). And his OPS is a 'holy shit' worthy 1.511.

But with all that said, clutch stats are nearly meaningless because the PA are not enough to make it statistically significant. It's more a matter of chance. Here's a little blurb from baseball prospectus:





Maybe you should be using 2011 stats when talking about the 2011 MVP?!?

RE: MVP, The question was regarding why I'd rather have other hitters such as Pujols/Bonds bat in high leverage situations over Bautista. No, the PA's actually are meaningful when you look at how many times Pujols has been in such situations (1367 or almost 2 full seasons worth of at-bats). That's a crapload of data and to try and discount that would be foolhardy.

FG's "Clutch" stat that you claim for Pujols (below average or negative value) simply does not jive with BRefs clutch stats which is why I was questioning it and where you got that data from. BRef is the authority IMO and I would be interested to see where you are seeing that Pujols has been below average in High Leverage situations.

Ron Johnson is allowed to have an opinion that "clutch" does not exist but I disagree. Anything over 1000 PAs is enough to derive how a hitter is most likely to perform in certain situations. Some players will perform better under higher pressure and batting average in such situations is a good indicator of how well they have done in the past. The more a player has performed successfully in the past then the more I'd want them in such a situation.

JB is having a great season, no doubt. But now that I've proven that he did poorly in Clutch, High Leverage, and Late and Close metrics can we put it to bed? Yes, maybe he'll break the mold this year but 6 years of past data (including 2010 = 54 home runs) says he won't be able to keep up his current 2011 pace in high leverage situations.

 

[actuarial]

RE: MVP, The question was regarding why I'd rather have other hitters such as Pujols/Bonds bat in high leverage situations over Bautista. No, the PA's actually are meaningful when you look at how many times Pujols has been in such situations (1367 or almost 2 full seasons worth of at-bats). That's a crapload of data and to try and discount that would be foolhardy.

Fair enough. And yes there's a lot of at bats career for those guys I agree. Not so much for JB.

FG's "Clutch" stat that you claim for Pujols (below average or negative value) simply does not jive with BRefs clutch stats which is why I was questioning it and where you got that data from. BRef is the authority IMO and I would be interested to see where you are seeing that Pujols has been below average in High Leverage situations.

But you're looking at splits from BRef, not necessarily how it impacts wins. That's why the 'clutch' stat from FG is so interesting. Also note: it doesn't mean that Pujols/Bonds didn't perform in high pressure situations. It also weights the situation by the leverage index, as opposed to an 'all high leverage situations are completed equal' type approach. For example a bottom of the ninth scenario with two outs is much higher leverage than with no outs, even if the score and runners on are the same.

But again - that's not to say Pujols isn't the guy you want up in those situations.

Ron Johnson is allowed to have an opinion that "clutch" does not exist but I disagree. Anything over 1000 PAs is enough to derive how a hitter is most likely to perform in certain situations. Some players will perform better under higher pressure and batting average in such situations is a good indicator of how well they have done in the past. The more a player has performed successfully in the past then the more I'd want them in such a situation.

I'm just quoting a study. And yeah - you always go on past performance, but what he's saying is more that you shouldn't expect them to be better than usual (for them, not for the average guy) when the pressure is high.

JB is having a great season, no doubt. But now that I've proven that he did poorly in Clutch, High Leverage, and Late and Close metrics can we put it to bed? Yes, maybe he'll break the mold this year but 6 years of past data (including 2010 = 54 home runs) says he won't be able to keep up his current 2011 pace in high leverage situations.

But you only proved that in the past. Are we going to tear down AGon and say that he can't keep up his current 2011 batting average pace because of how he hit in prior years? The stats so far this season show he is doing exceeding well in high leverage situations (leading the league in OPS, second in wOBA), which is the point. That this year being clutch is actually a boon to his MVP credentials.

In high leverage situations this year, Bautista has a higher OBP%, SLG%, OPS, ISO power and wOBA than AGon. AGon has a higher average (by a measly 9 points).

The only people that don't see him as the MVP to date are either slaves to the MVP needing to come from a winning team or are people who are stuck on traditional baseball metrics that don't necessarily correlate to winning.

 

[BeauJangles]

Don't get bogged down in stats that you do not understand.

I let this post rest because I didn't quite know how to respond. All I'll say is that there is no need to talk down to anybody.

JB is having a great season, no doubt. But now that I've proven that he did poorly in Clutch, High Leverage, and Late and Close metrics can we put it to bed? Yes, maybe he'll break the mold this year but 6 years of past data (including 2010 = 54 home runs) says he won't be able to keep up his current 2011 pace in high leverage situations.

JB has had 159 L&C PAs and 210 High Leverage PAs that are meaningful. The player he was prior to 2010 tells us nothing, because he has made the almost unprecedented jump from middling journeyman to superstar power hitter, hence his pre-2010 numbers don't accurately reflect his current abilities. So, you now have two seasons worth of whatever clutch numbers you'd like to use which isn't enough data to draw meaningful conclusions about what kind of hitter Bautista is in those situations.

Based on that fact, you have a sample size of 159 and 210 which is too small to prove anything about what he can do in ill-defined "clutch" situations.

 

[SP33Demon]

Fair enough. And yes there's a lot of at bats career for those guys I agree. Not so much for JB.



But you're looking at splits from BRef, not necessarily how it impacts wins. That's why the 'clutch' stat from FG is so interesting. Also note: it doesn't mean that Pujols/Bonds didn't perform in high pressure situations. It also weights the situation by the leverage index, as opposed to an 'all high leverage situations are completed equal' type approach. For example a bottom of the ninth scenario with two outs is much higher leverage than with no outs, even if the score and runners on are the same.

But again - that's not to say Pujols isn't the guy you want up in those situations.



I'm just quoting a study. And yeah - you always go on past performance, but what he's saying is more that you shouldn't expect them to be better than usual (for them, not for the average guy) when the pressure is high.



But you only proved that in the past. Are we going to tear down AGon and say that he can't keep up his current 2011 batting average pace because of how he hit in prior years? The stats so far this season show he is doing exceeding well in high leverage situations (leading the league in OPS, second in wOBA), which is the point. That this year being clutch is actually a boon to his MVP credentials.

In high leverage situations this year, Bautista has a higher OBP%, SLG%, OPS, ISO power and wOBA than AGon. AGon has a higher average (by a measly 9 points).

The only people that don't see him as the MVP to date are either slaves to the MVP needing to come from a winning team or are people who are stuck on traditional baseball metrics that don't necessarily correlate to winning.

The amazing thing about people like Pujols is that he has gotten slightly better than his baseline in high leverage situations, such as having a slightly better BA than his lifetime BA. To me, this proves that these players try a little harder/focus a bit more, whatever you want to call it. It's really not a huge % but a slight gain.

I'd be inclined to say that if Bautista finishes with a higher rWAR than Gonzalez then he should be MVP. If he contributes the most, then that's fine with me. I do consider health to be a big factor though, and it's kind of painful to see guys who only play 75% of the season win the MVP over a higher contributor who has a higher WAR because he played in almost all of the games (90%). What I'm getting at is JB better not get hurt again or he won't win it.

RE: Gonzalez's average, I see your point (that it is likely to drop because it has in the past) but only if all major variables are the same. Many balls that are outs at Petco are off the Green Monster. On the flipside, are there any major variables that have changed for JB since last year? It's possible that we are seeing the beginning stages of a future Hall of Fame career but it's strange that his first four years were nothing special and it took him this long to blossom. Most Hall of Fame hitters are special out of the gate but there are a few instances of this. Jayson Werth (could be a HOFer if he actually starts performing again) is the latest that comes to mind, he didn't really start hitting until around the same age as JB (28).

 

[actuarial]

The amazing thing about people like Pujols is that he has gotten slightly better than his baseline in high leverage situations, such as having a slightly better BA than his lifetime BA. To me, this proves that these players try a little harder/focus a bit more, whatever you want to call it. It's really not a huge % but a slight gain.

Yeah I wasn't trying to tear down Pujols at all - and he's still one of my favorite players.

I'd be inclined to say that if Bautista finishes with a higher rWAR than Gonzalez then he should be MVP. If he contributes the most, then that's fine with me. I do consider health to be a big factor though, and it's kind of painful to see guys who only play 75% of the season win the MVP over a higher contributor who has a higher WAR because he played in almost all of the games (90%). What I'm getting at is JB better not get hurt again or he won't win it.

Definitely agree here. And actually WAR is not pace adjusted, so he's leading even considering the injury / family break (he really hasn't missed that much time though anyways). But if he misses a bunch of time I think AGon gets it.

RE: Gonzalez's average, I see your point (that it is likely to drop because it has in the past) but only if all major variables are the same. Many balls that are outs at Petco are off the Green Monster. On the flipside, are there any major variables that have changed for JB since last year? It's possible that we are seeing the beginning stages of a future Hall of Fame career but it's strange that his first four years were nothing special and it took him this long to blossom. Most Hall of Fame hitters are special out of the gate but there are a few instances of this. Jayson Werth (could be a HOFer if he actually starts performing again) is the latest that comes to mind, he didn't really start hitting until around the same age as JB (28).

The biggest difference this year is his BABIP (or, luck basically). Last year it was unsustainably low, and this year it started unsustainably high, and hence the crazy spike in batting average. There was one big change - this year he started hitting outside breaking balls (which he sees a lot of) the opposite way when he has two strikes and he gets a lot of bloop singles that way. That's basically the only change from last year, but it means a lot more of his contact is dropping in front of outfielders instead of being lined right in their glove.

He's definitely an interesting case study - and it's hard to compare him to others adequately because of the radically different career path of a typical guy who would even be considered in the MVP discussion.

 

[rcpratt]

LOL VMart just scored the funniest run I've ever seen. I'll have to post the video after the game.

 

[rcpratt]

LOL VMart just scored the funniest run I've ever seen. I'll have to post the video after the game.

Video

 

[raystorm]

hey..the Pirates are still in first. Good for Pirates fans!

So it looks like I'll get to see Beltran in a Mets uni for just a few more days as its totally obvious that he's going to get traded. Where does he go? I read that Boston and Philly want his services as well as the Giants and maybe even the Brewers.

 

[actuarial]

LOL VMart just scored the funniest run I've ever seen. I'll have to post the video after the game.

Damn that tag was close. I watched the last super slo-mo video like 4 times and I'm still not 100% certain either way.

In any case - I'm surprised they didn't call him for running off the base path. Still a head's up play though!

 

[SP33Demon]

The biggest difference this year is his BABIP (or, luck basically). Last year it was unsustainably low, and this year it started unsustainably high, and hence the crazy spike in batting average. There was one big change - this year he started hitting outside breaking balls (which he sees a lot of) the opposite way when he has two strikes and he gets a lot of bloop singles that way. That's basically the only change from last year, but it means a lot more of his contact is dropping in front of outfielders instead of being lined right in their glove.

He's definitely an interesting case study - and it's hard to compare him to others adequately because of the radically different career path of a typical guy who would even be considered in the MVP discussion.

Yeah that is quite a spike in BA for JB. Interesting that he is hitting more outside breaking balls.

That play in the Tigers game was great. Strangest way to score a run ever.

 

[Perknose]

Video

Lol, that was great! :awe:

 

[Perknose]

Vance! Vance!
I cream in my pants! 😛

 

[SP33Demon]

Welp, for the Carlos Ruiz naysayers I present you with:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ore-2011-catcher-defense-ratings-july-edition

Total Defense he is ranked 3rd behind rookie Ramos (Nats) and Hernandez (Reds) and 5th in the Majors. He is first in stopping Passed Balls/Wild Pitches in the NL and a smidge behind rookie Wieters on the Orioles (who is playing out of his mind) for no. 2 in the majors in that category. Throwing out runners he's at the league average.

Brian McCann overall? 86th/94 in the majors. The only thing keeping him ahead of Chooch in WAR is his bat, he's been abysmal behind the dish.

 

[raystorm]

Good ol' K-Fraud. Blows a save for the Brew Crew and flips the bird.

 

[jalaram]

Great game from Shields last night. Rays are barely hanging on, but I supposed it's not bad for a team that reduced payroll.

From ESPN:

Run support for Shields, whose 17 starts of at least seven innings are tied for the most in the major leagues, has been an issue much of this season.
The Rays have scored two runs or less in 10 of his 21 starts. In his nine wins Shields has yielded six earned runs in 76 innings -- an ERA of 0.71.

 

[Perknose]

Cole Hamels has put down all 9 Padres he's faced so far, striking out 7 of them.

 

[anxi80]

You jinxed it Perk. 😉

edit: and I reverse jinxed it saying that and watching Headley ground into a twin-killing.

 

[Perknose]

You jinxed it Perk. 😉

edit: and I reverse jinxed it saying that and watching Headley ground into a twin-killing.

Lol, exactly what I thought. Thanks for the reverse jinx, though! 😛

 

[anxi80]

Phillies were scouting our relievers for the stretch. Tell you what we'll leave you Qualls for the low low price of FREE.

 

[Perknose]

Phillies were scouting our relievers for the stretch. Tell you what we'll leave you Qualls for the low low price of FREE.

Lololololol. When the Phils put their first two on in he sixth but failed to score, the Fox announcers went on and on and on and on . . . and on! . . . about how they might have missed their chance now that they would be facing the vaunted Padre's bullpen -- best in the majors!

So, what happened? Qualls first two pitches went HR, double. His first four batters went HR, double, walk, HR, and the Phillies added another HR later in that inning alone. :biggrin:

 

[Perknose]

For all those here who routinely hop on the media bandwagon and bag on Philadelphia sports fans, there's also this:

The Phillies nearly extended their lead in the seventh when Ibanez hit a shot to the 398-foot spot in center. Chris Denorfia, in the game after Cameron Maybin left with a left hip flexor strain, sprinted with his back to home plate. He twisted his body at the last second and extended his arm over the short wall to rob Ibanez.

Ibanez had a bitter look on his face as he rounded first.

Phillies fans recognized Denorfia's great catch with a nice ovation. Some fans even stood.

 

[anxi80]

Video of the play. It was a classy gesture.

 

[IAteYourMother]

I'm excited for the upcoming Giants-Phillies series. Granted, the pitching matchups aren't ideal, but should be fun to watch the rematch anyways.

 

[rcpratt]

Dave Cameron, who I'm sure most here are familiar with, was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia. 🙁 Sad news.

 

[Perknose]

Chase Utley with an inside the park homer, third HR of the game for the Phils.

Yeah, he might just be "back." :biggrin: