*** OFFICIAL 2011 MLB Season Thread ***

[SP33Demon]

Now we're going to compare careers for the MVP, apparently. Obviously Bautista's career changed drastically last year.

And I quoted you Bautista's numbers for last year. .246 in 167PA's with RISP, his best year ever (54 homeruns). Compared to Gonzo's .320 LIFETIME (1067 Plate Attempts). There's no comparison. Bautista isn't the immortal god with the golden swing that everyone makes him out to be, he is flawed as well. If I was a manager, no way you could pay me to have him hit with the game on the line.

 

[rcpratt]

Don't care what either did last year and I really don't care what their RISP averages are this year, especially with that small of a sample size. If their numbers otherwise were similar, it might make a good tiebreaker. But they're not.

 

[SP33Demon]

Don't care what either did last year and I really don't care what their RISP averages are this year, especially with that small of a sample size. If their numbers otherwise were similar, it might make a good tiebreaker. But they're not.

Even Big Papi batted .298 in 2010 (yes, 50 points higher) than Bautista. Jose in 2010 was barely above the league average in tOPS+ with RISP at 107 (yes, even with all of those walks). Big Papi, 118 (198 PA's) tOPS+. Gonzalez, 125 CAREER.

Make a good tiebreaker? I'd say such a disparity in clutch hitting easily makes for a good argument for MVP, and Gonzo is within striking distance in WAR this year (4.9 vs 6.6).

Personally, I could not vote MVP for a hitter that was below the league batting average with runners on. An MVP slugger is the guy you want at the plate with ducks in the pond, amirite? Not the guy who hit the most homeruns against trash pitching like the Orioles (Bautista had 9 in 2010), amirite?

 

[BeauJangles]

See my response. All this dckriding for Bautista when he can't even get a runner in more than 1/4 of the time. Hell I'd take Jeter (.301) over him in the playoffs when the game's on the line. You cannot teach clutch.

Bautista has done well for himself this year in high leverage situations, hitting to the tune of a
.375 AVG, a 1.512 OPS, and 11 homers which has translated to 33 RBI.

In fact looking down a lot of his situational numbers, he's doing pretty well for himself this year.

 

[SP33Demon]

Bautista has done well for himself this year in high leverage situations, hitting to the tune of a
.375 AVG, a 1.512 OPS, and 11 homers which has translated to 33 RBI.

In fact looking down a lot of his situational numbers, he's doing pretty well for himself this year.

Not sure what you are defining as high leverage. Runners in scoring position is all encompassing and the standard, and he is not doing well by that standard and never has in his career.

 

[BeauJangles]

Not sure what you are defining as high leverage. Runners in scoring position is all encompassing and the standard, and he is not doing well by that standard and never has in his career.

RISP isn't a great way to define leverage because a runner on third in the bottom of the 9th in a blowout obviously isn't as valuable as the same situation in a tie game.

Those numbers are based off a ratio of leverage index and win expectancy / run expectancy. I think there might be a few bones to pick about the methodology, but overall it seems like a fairly reliable way of measuring how much a player contributes when it matters.

BR breaks that down into high, medium, and low leverage situations. I just pulled their high leverage numbers. The same numbers are what drives fangraphs win probability graphs and stuff.

Edit: and, of course to be fair, it's not like any player has accumulated a statistically sound sample size for high leverage situations.

 

[SP33Demon]

RISP isn't a great way to define leverage because a runner on third in the bottom of the 9th in a blowout obviously isn't as valuable as the same situation in a tie game.

Those numbers are based off a ratio of leverage index and win expectancy / run expectancy. I think there might be a few bones to pick about the methodology, but overall it seems like a fairly reliable way of measuring how much a player contributes when it matters.

BR breaks that down into high, medium, and low leverage situations. I just pulled their high leverage numbers. The same numbers are what drives fangraphs win probability graphs and stuff.

Edit: and, of course to be fair, it's not like any player has accumulated a statistically sound sample size for high leverage situations.

It does not matter when runners are on 2nd and 3rd. Someone deemed an MVP should be hitting them in more than 1/4 (.250) of the time regardless of weather, inning, what he ate for his last meal, if he indigestion, whatever. Bautista doesn't. Don't get bogged down in stats that you do not understand.

 

[SP33Demon]

Bonus points to who remembers what team this originated from...

 

[actuarial]

102 PA is statistically significant. Bautista walks more w/ RISP (hence the higher OPS) but he's not paid to walk (only 13 were intentional), he's paid to drive in runs. When he decides to actually swing, he's batting .242. Gonzo has been monumentally better.

If you think Bautista has only been intentionally walked with runners in scoring position 13 times you don't actually watch him play. Is there a stat anywhere for four ball walks that aren't 'intentional'? IE. four straight (way) outside breaking balls while a runner's on second but the catcher didn't stand up with his glove out (so it's not scored as intentional).

Not sure what you are defining as high leverage. Runners in scoring position is all encompassing and the standard, and he is not doing well by that standard and never has in his career.

Your 'all-encompassing' stat doesn't take that into account his solo, game winning (not walk-off) home run in extra innings this weekend because there wasn't a guy in scoring position. Is that not clutch?

If you want an 'all-encompassing' (for real) stat, look up WAR, WPA or WPA/LI. WPA looks to actually account for the value of each plate appearance. What difference does it make if a guy singles with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game, or walks? Either way, that plate appearance just won the game.

 

[Perknose]

Bonus points to who remembers what team this originated from...

Willie S and the Buckos of the burg of Pitt!

They had those wild hats that for some reason reminded me of 19th century policeman . . . sorta.

Edit: Here 'ya go:

Bigger bonus points if you know, w/o googling, what former Philly is pictured above. 😉

 

[SP33Demon]

If you think Bautista has only been intentionally walked with runners in scoring position 13 times you don't actually watch him play. Is there a stat anywhere for four ball walks that aren't 'intentional'? IE. four straight (way) outside breaking balls while a runner's on second but the catcher didn't stand up with his glove out (so it's not scored as intentional).



Your 'all-encompassing' stat doesn't take that into account his solo, game winning (not walk-off) home run in extra innings this weekend because there wasn't a guy in scoring position. Is that not clutch?

If you want an 'all-encompassing' (for real) stat, look up WAR, WPA or WPA/LI. WPA looks to actually account for the value of each plate appearance. What difference does it make if a guy singles with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game, or walks? Either way, that plate appearance just won the game.

I think what you're talking about is the Late and Close stat. Yeah, Bautista is doing well in that category no doubt. Just strange that he doesn't do well with runners on earlier in the game though.

 

[SP33Demon]

Willie S and the Buckos of the burg of Pitt!

They had those wild hats that for some reason reminded me of 19th century policeman . . . sorta.

Edit: Here 'ya go:

Bigger bonus points if you know, w/o googling, what former Philly is pictured above. 😉

Is that underhand throwing reliever Kent Tukulve? And nj on remember the We are Family Pirates of 1979!

 

[IAteYourMother]

It does not matter when runners are on 2nd and 3rd. Someone deemed an MVP should be hitting them in more than 1/4 (.250) of the time regardless of weather, inning, what he ate for his last meal, if he indigestion, whatever. Bautista doesn't. Don't get bogged down in stats that you do not understand.

Ummm, don't get bogged down in stats you don't understand? For some reason you talk down to everyone else as though you're some sort of baseball guru? I guess you got tired of talking up Carlos Ruiz as one of the game's premier catchers?

With runners in scoring position, Jose Bautista has an OPS of 0.987 with an OBP of over .509. I would surmise that the reason he doesn't hit for average as well with RISP is because no one fucking throws strikes to him because he's such a dangerous hitter.

While Adrian Gonzalez is a great hitter (I should know as a Giants fan), to say Jose Bautista doesn't deserve the MVP because he's not "clutch" is just pitiful.

 

[Perknose]

Is that underhand throwing reliever Kent Tukulve? And nj on remember the We are Family Pirates of 1979!

Yup, that's the tall, lanky submariner Teke. I had a friend who used to write on the envelope of his letters to me (remember letters?):

Postman, postman, don't be slow
Be like the Bucs and go, go, go!

 

[Maligx]

Braves get 10,000th win, go Braves!

 

[raystorm]

Speaking of the Pirates...they are in first place. 😀

 

[SP33Demon]

Ummm, don't get bogged down in stats you don't understand? For some reason you talk down to everyone else as though you're some sort of baseball guru? I guess you got tired of talking up Carlos Ruiz as one of the game's premier catchers?

With runners in scoring position, Jose Bautista has an OPS of 0.987 with an OBP of over .509. I would surmise that the reason he doesn't hit for average as well with RISP is because no one fucking throws strikes to him because he's such a dangerous hitter.

While Adrian Gonzalez is a great hitter (I should know as a Giants fan), to say Jose Bautista doesn't deserve the MVP because he's not "clutch" is just pitiful.

Brian McCann (best catcher in the NL) rWAR: 2.3 in 335 PA
Carlos Ruiz rWAR: 1.8 in 266 PA

So he's 27.7% behind the best NL catcher in 25.9% less Plate Attempts. Looks fine to me, especially considering he destroys McCann on defense who is well below the league avg.

Bautista has a Fangraphs value of .06 for Clutch Value, he's average at best. Not saying he shouldn't win MVP because of it but it's a major knock against him. Other great hitters (Bonds, Pujols) can mash with RISP and pitchers who don't give them much.

 

[SP33Demon]

Yup, that's the tall, lanky submariner Teke. I had a friend who used to write on the envelope of his letters to me (remember letters?):

Postman, postman, don't be slow
Be like the Bucs and go, go, go!

Hehe nice. The Pirates are a feelgood story so figured I'd bring back some old school 1979.

 

[Perknose]

Hehe nice. The Pirates are a feelgood story so figured I'd bring back some old school 1979.

Yeah. I really feel for Pirates fans. As can be seen by their recent crowds, Pittsburg is still a good baseball town. Give them even half a reason to hope, and they'll turn out. I wish the Buckos well. :thumbsup:

 

[IAteYourMother]

Brian McCann (best catcher in the NL) rWAR: 2.3 in 335 PA
Carlos Ruiz rWAR: 1.8 in 266 PA

So he's 27.7% behind the best NL catcher in 25.9% less Plate Attempts. Looks fine to me, especially considering he destroys McCann on defense who is well below the league avg.

Bautista has a Fangraphs value of .06 for Clutch Value, he's average at best. Not saying he shouldn't win MVP because of it but it's a major knock against him. Other great hitters (Bonds, Pujols) can mash with RISP and pitchers who don't give them much.

Hmmm... Ruiz is doing better than I expected by WAR, although WAR should already take into account defense.

But come on, you said "If I was a manager, no way you could pay me to have him hit with the game on the line."

A little excessive no?

 

[anxi80]

and here we go into the 15th inning...

 

[actuarial]

Bautista has a Fangraphs value of .06 for Clutch Value, he's average at best. Not saying he shouldn't win MVP because of it but it's a major knock against him. Other great hitters (Bonds, Pujols) can mash with RISP and pitchers who don't give them much.

That stat only measures how much better (or worse) they are in the clutch than they are overall. So Bautista being positive at all is great, and it's basically equal to AGon's .12.

For reference: both Bonds and Pujols have negative clutch values for their career. Bonds in particular is abysmal.

 

[SP33Demon]

Hmmm... Ruiz is doing better than I expected by WAR, although WAR should already take into account defense.

But come on, you said "If I was a manager, no way you could pay me to have him hit with the game on the line."

A little excessive no?

Well I was just saying if I had the choice to choose between Bautista and Gonzalez I'd choose Gonzalez and a bunch of other guys before him. He's around the league average in clutch and below with RISP. Now if it was against the Orioles, maybe Bautista (he eats them up for breakfast). Although it's the O's.

For what it's worth, Sirius/XM's MLB Radio (Dibble and Menelow) said yesterday morning that Gonzalez is hands down their AL MVP. They said the Bosox would be behind the Rays due to most of the rest of the team underachieving and specifically called out JD Drew.

 

[SP33Demon]

That stat only measures how much better (or worse) they are in the clutch than they are overall. So Bautista being positive at all is great, and it's basically equal to AGon's .12.

For reference: both Bonds and Pujols have negative clutch values for their career. Bonds in particular is abysmal.

actuarial, I will take your word that Pujols may have a negative FanGraphs' "Clutch" value but his other metrics regarding RISP are off the charts (.345, 1.146 OPS) and that's over a huge sample size. This tells me that Pujols obliterates pitchers with RISP when he swings the bat - something Bautista does not do. Bonds (career) isn't as good as Pujols (.310, 1.121 OPS) but still better than Bautista's best season (2010 - .246) with RISP. Keep in mind that Clutch and the ability to bat Runners In Scoring Position in are 2 different things.

Since they are all substandard in FG's "Clutch" rating you have to look at other metrics. For Baseball Ref's "Late and Close" clutch metric, Pujols is still head and shoulders above Bautista: a .316 vs .230 (2010) batting average which is almost the difference between a hit in 1 in 3 at bats vs 1 in 4 at bats. Bonds is in the middle of them both at .275, Gonzalez .264. In "High Leverage" situations: Pujols .347, Gonzalez .306, Bonds .298, Bautista .226 .

BRef defines "Late and Close" as:

Late and Close are PA in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

They define their Leverage Index as:

Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation and situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LI's than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (late innings of a 12-run blowout). The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.

I'm not sure how FG calculates their "Clutch" stat but BR's clutch metrics show Pujols as an absolute stud when swinging the bat in situations that matter (high leverage) including later innings (Late and Close) while JB is on the other end of the spectrum. Maybe you were looking at Pujols' 2011 FG stats or something because BRef is very reliable. The only reason I even look at Fangraphs is because their 2011 sortable advanced metrics are free while BRef is paid (and my subscription ran out) so I can't get 2011 from them.

 

[actuarial]

actuarial, I will take your word that Pujols may have a negative FanGraphs' "Clutch" value but his other metrics regarding RISP are off the charts (.345, 1.146 OPS) and that's over a huge sample size. This tells me that Pujols obliterates pitchers with RISP when he swings the bat - something Bautista does not do. Bonds (career) isn't as good as Pujols (.310, 1.121 OPS) but still better than Bautista's best season (2010 - .246) with RISP. Keep in mind that Clutch and the ability to bat Runners In Scoring Position in are 2 different things.

They certainly are. And because of the multitude of situations where hitting with RISP doesn't actually change the chances of your team winning (blowouts either way), it's kinda useless to determine who's the most valuable.

I'll personally take Bautista's solo homer in extra innings or his two run homer (while down 3) in the 9th against the Sox with the man on first.

Since they are all substandard in FG's "Clutch" rating you have to look at other metrics.

So we just throw out the metric because you don't understand it? You're the one that brought the stat up as a criticism! FG's clutch stat compares how much a guy's contribution to winning % in high leverage situations is compared to their contribution in the average situation. It uses WPA, which accounts for how your PA actually impacted your chances of winning. For example, with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of a tie game WPA values a walk the same as a homer - because in either situation it's a walk-off win.

For Baseball Ref's "Late and Close" clutch metric, Pujols is still head and shoulders above Bautista: a .316 vs .230 (2010) batting average which is almost the difference between a hit in 1 in 3 at bats vs 1 in 4 at bats. Bonds is in the middle of them both at .275, Gonzalez .264. In "High Leverage" situations: Pujols .347, Gonzalez .306, Bonds .298, Bautista .226 .

Those are 2010 stats. In 2011 Bautista is hitting .391 in high leverage situations (according to FG, which had his 2010 at .222). And his OPS is a 'holy shit' worthy 1.511.

But with all that said, clutch stats are nearly meaningless because the PA are not enough to make it statistically significant. It's more a matter of chance. Here's a little blurb from baseball prospectus:

The guys who are good enough to be in the majors are all capable of succeeding and failing in these situations, and they're as likely to do one or the other in the clutch as they are at any other time. Over the course of a game, a month, a season or a career, there is virtually no evidence that any player or group of players possesses an ability to outperform his established level of ability in clutch situations, however defined.

...

A study by Ron Johnson, which is not currently online but is quoted here, covered a 15-year period and concluded that just two players, Paul Molitor and Tony Fernandez met the statistical criteria to be considered clutch hitters. (Johnson didn't argue that the two had this trait, just that of the players in the study, they were the only two whose performance with runners in scoring position showed a statistically significant improvement.

I'm not sure how FG calculates their "Clutch" stat but BR's clutch metrics show Pujols as an absolute stud when swinging the bat in situations that matter (high leverage) including later innings (Late and Close) while JB is on the other end of the spectrum. Maybe you were looking at Pujols' 2011 FG stats or something because BRef is very reliable. The only reason I even look at Fangraphs is because their 2011 sortable advanced metrics are free while BRef is paid (and my subscription ran out) so I can't get 2011 from them.

Maybe you should be using 2011 stats when talking about the 2011 MVP?!?