***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

That's the risk in bio plays. Everyone is trying to find the new DNDN.

The reality is, for every DNDN fairytale, there's 1,000 other ambitious bio-companies that will fail.

You're missing another 0

 

[HopJokey]

That's the risk in bio plays. Everyone is trying to find the new DNDN.

The reality is, for every DNDN fairytale, there's 1,000 other ambitious bio-companies that will fail.

Looks like DNDN will cover that second gap jump and trend closer to it's max pain. I have a couple buy orders set up at different price points (roughly at $47, $48.50 and $50).

Do you think DNDN will need to create a secondary, increasing the amount of shares?

 

[Azurik]

Do you think DNDN will need to create a secondary, increasing the amount of shares?

It's a possibility, and something that was brought up by David Miller (I assume you listened to the Q&A session to be asking that?).

Keep in mind, most drugs have partners. A small company being held by a bigger company to help (and profit) its way through to the market.

DNDN has done this thing alone without any help, and without a ROW (round the world) partner.

I could see them offering a secondary to secure long-term financing until Provenge hits peak sales.

 

[KDKPSJ]

It's a possibility, and something that was brought up by David Miller (I assume you listened to the Q&A session to be asking that?).

Keep in mind, most drugs have partners. A small company being held by a bigger company to help (and profit) its way through to the market.

DNDN has done this thing alone without any help, and without a ROW (round the world) partner.

I could see them offering a secondary to secure long-term financing until Provenge hits peak sales.

So, you don't think any big guys come in to team up with DNDN? I know that's been a way by the management, but there are just too many noises and speculations going on, especially since Mr. Gold sold many shares last week after approval.

And yes, you are right, my option play looks like a dangerous one after today's drop! But well, I didn't all-in anyway 😛

 

[HopJokey]

It's a possibility, and something that was brought up by David Miller (I assume you listened to the Q&A session to be asking that?).

Keep in mind, most drugs have partners. A small company being held by a bigger company to help (and profit) its way through to the market.

DNDN has done this thing alone without any help, and without a ROW (round the world) partner.

I could see them offering a secondary to secure long-term financing until Provenge hits peak sales.

Great thanks for the insight as usual. I started thinking about a "secondary" from some threads I saw over on Investor Village. Maybe that would drop the market cap a bit for a good entry point.

 

[JS80]

Re: ITMN, how often does an advisory board approve 9-3 only for it to ultimately reject it?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Re: ITMN, how often does an advisory board approve 9-3 only for it to ultimately reject it?

That also happened with Dendreon's Provenge, so its not necessarily the end of the world but could mean a two or more year delay. What is extremely sad is the night before DNDN stock plummeted from this announcement, I had about $40,000 worth of it short around $17.75.

I was at the tire shop buying some new wheels and in the after hours I lost my guts to hold it short overnight (at the time I wasnt trading options and could have just had some calls for protection if it exploded upwards). I locked in a tidy $500 profit around 6:30pm and thought "sweet, I just paid for my tires".

The next day the bad news broke and I was pissed when I realized I could have covered around $6 for a $25,000 profit - enough to buy a brand new car. :'(

 

[JS80]

That also happenned with Dendreon's Provenge, so its not necessarily the end of the world but could mean a two or more year delay. What is extremely sad is the night before DNDN stock plummeted from this announcement, I had about $40,000 worth of it short around $17.75.

I was at the tire shop buying some new wheels and in the after hours I lost my guts to hold it short overnight (at the time I wasnt trading options and could have just had some calls for protection if it exploded upwards). I locked in a tidy $500 profit around 6:30pm and thought "sweet, I just paid for my tires".

The next day the bad news broke and I was pissed when I realized I could have covered around $6 for a $25,000 profit - enough to buy a brand new car. :'(

Wow...well, at least it wasn't the other way around.

Geez it took DNDN two years to recover...HOW similar is the situation between DNDN and ITMN?

 

[HopJokey]

Wow...well, at least it wasn't the other way around.

Geez it took DNDN two years to recover...HOW similar is the situation between DNDN and ITMN?

That's what I'm thinking. ITMN will need to pony up some dollars to put up a solid study to prove to the FDA the merits of their product. Thus they will need to dilute and raise more money sending the shares down. A comeback could happen down the road IF the product is legit AND all goes well.

Everyone in bio spectrum was super excited that the FDA approved DNDN and figured they were in a "giving mood".

The FDA giveth and the FDA taketh away...

 

[Azurik]

I have a couple buy orders set up at different price points (roughly at $47, $48.50 and $50).

Well, my buy at $50's hit this morning... what's a few hundred more shares ::shrug::

I'm not sure what I want DNDN to do. Hit my $47's/$48's before continuing its climb or go up from here 😛

BTW, in case of a big meltdown, $46 is probably DNDN's best support level right now.

 

[Azurik]

Bought shares of ITMN in the $10's - the ITMN story isn't as strong as DNDN, and resolution of their drug could (will likely) take years, but it's a speculative position for now (only 750 shares).

 

[richardycc]

another bloodbath day. just watching GGP bidding war, should come to an end soon, and looks like FAIRX bought some GS. looking at RMIX, another chp 11 company, the management sux, and careless about its shareholders. In the reorg plan, the management will get 10% of the new company, current shareholders will get warrants to buy 15% of the new company stocks. no pricing or exercise price yet, so they could be worthless or worth more than the current price of ~44cents.

 

[JS80]

Bought shares of ITMN in the $10's - the ITMN story isn't as strong as DNDN, and resolution of their drug could (will likely) take years, but it's a speculative position for now (only 750 shares).

AWWW SHiet Midas touch baby. The Az is in!

 

[richardycc]

AWWW SHiet Midas touch baby. The Az is in!

anyone else buying now for the gap up tomorrow? very risky, could go either way.

 

[JS80]

anyone else buying now for the gap up tomorrow? very risky, could go either way.

News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.

 

[HopJokey]

News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.

Haha

:thumbsup:

 

[Azurik]

News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.

Hahaha, you guys made my chuckle 🙂

Regarding my portfolio (lets call it AZRK: ticker symbol for Azurik's Unbalanced Mutual Fund):

I'm still heavily in Pimco PTTRX bonds (and cash) to the tune of 40%. The rest of my capital is heavily invested in RMBS and DNDN, with smaller, but significant portions in TIVO, TSRA, S&P 500, DODFX and healthcare funds. Every other stock I own is 2% or less of my total portofolio (like ITVN) so it's not worth mentioning by name.

I also own S&P long-term OTM puts. I need to see conclusive data that the economy is in a consistent uptrend before I revert back to 90% stock/10% bond and cash position.

For my age group, I have a "wrong" portfolio mix and one could argue I am under-diversified and depend heavily on a select group of stocks - so maybe I'm just really lucky, but looking at my 5-year and 10-year performance, I'll take it as I have handily destroyed S&P 500's performance. I mean that in a humbling way.

Maybe I should retire from creating these yearly "Official 20XX Stock Market" threads before I tarnish my legacy. Looking back, I can't believe this market commentary has been going on for the past 4+ years here!

 

[Jassi]

Hahaha, you guys made my chuckle 🙂

Regarding my portfolio (lets call it AZRK: ticker symbol for Azurik's Unbalanced Mutual Fund):

I'm still heavily in Pimco PTTRX bonds (and cash) to the tune of 40%. The rest of my capital is heavily invested in RMBS and DNDN, with smaller, but significant portions in TIVO, TSRA, DODFX. Every other stock I own is 2% or less of my total portofolio (like ITVN) so it's not worth mentioning by name.

I also own S&P long-term OTM puts. I need to see conclusive data that the economy is in a consistent uptrend before I revert back to 90% stock/10% bond and cash position.

For my age group, I have a "wrong" portfolio mix and one could argue I am under-diversified and depend heavily on a select group of stocks - so maybe I'm just really lucky, but looking at my 5-year and 10-year performance, I'll take it as I have handily destroyed S&P 500's performance. I mean that in a humbling way.

Maybe I should retire from creating these yearly "Official 20XX Stock Market" threads before I tarnish my legacy. Looking back, I can't believe this market commentary has been going on for the past 4+ years here!

Wowza! You have over 1M in bonds alone! Nicely played. I for one love this thread and wish that I had started to follow it much before this year.

 

[Azurik]

NOTE: I have a lot of May $22/June $22 puts against my very big RMBS position. With CAFC and ITC decision coming, it will be one of the defining points of RMBS' legal wranglings. For CAFC, these are the three scenarios I see:

1) CAFC sides with Whyte over Robinson, Rambus is innocent of spoliation and memory manufacturers infringe.

a - affirms Whyte, sends decision back to Robinson to redo/retry due to errors in her decision
b - affirms Whyte, agrees with RMBS' request for venue change and sends Micron case away from Robinson to Whyte (when cases are similiar, they should be assigned to one court for judicial policy is what RMBS is arguing)

2) CAFC sides with Whyte on some issues, but also sides with Robinson that Rambus did destroy documents strategically ahead of litigation. However, they remand it back to her to reconsider outcome, because invalidating patents based on spoliation is unprecendented and very draconian.

3) CAFC dismisses Whyte and affirms Robinson (or some other close variant).

1B is the best outcome for RMBS shareholders. 1A is the likely outcome, but sending it back to Robinson is just going to cause more delays, even though the stock will appreciate big if that happens. Lets just say 3 is the worst scenario possible (and that's an understatement).

I think chances of each happening:

1A = 45%-50%
1B = 25%
2 = 20%
3 = 5%-10%

Don't forget the commission agreeing/disagreeing with the judge's initial ITC decision (Rambus vs Nokia, largely favoring Rambus) is in the mix too.

 

[HopJokey]

NOTE: I have a lot of May $22/June $22 puts against my very big RMBS position. With CAFC and ITC decision coming, it will be one of the defining points of RMBS' legal wranglings. For CAFC, these are the three scenarios I see:

1) CAFC sides with Whyte over Robinson, Rambus is innocent of spoliation and memory manufacturers infringe.

a - affirms Whyte, sends decision back to Robinson to redo/retry due to errors in her decision
b - affirms Whyte, agrees with RMBS' request for venue change and sends Micron case away from Robinson to Whyte (when cases are similiar, they should be assigned to one court for judicial policy is what RMBS is arguing)

2) CAFC sides with Whyte on some issues, but also sides with Robinson that Rambus did destroy documents strategically ahead of litigation. However, they remand it back to her to reconsider outcome, because invalidating patents based on spoliation is unprecendented and very draconian.

3) CAFC dismisses Whyte and affirms Robinson (or some other close variant).

1B is the best outcome for RMBS shareholders. 1A is the likely outcome, but sending it back to Robinson is just going to cause more delays, even though the stock will appreciate big if that happens. Lets just say 3 is the worst scenario possible (and that's an understatement).

I think chances of each happening:

1A = 45%-50%
1B = 25%
2 = 20%
3 = 5%-10%

Don't forget the commission agreeing/disagreeing with the judge's initial ITC decision (Rambus vs Nokia, largely favoring Rambus) is in the mix too.

Good stuff. Any take on today's proceedings Azurik? I was trying to read some stuff on IV but couldn't determine the significance of the court proceedings with Judge Kramer.

 

[zimu]

Wow, check SPNG! top guys arrested for alleged fraud, their shares are practically worthless.

it'd take a miracle to rebound from this...

 

[Azurik]

Good stuff. Any take on today's proceedings Azurik? I was trying to read some stuff on IV but couldn't determine the significance of the court proceedings with Judge Kramer.

After Samsung settling, I get the sense that Judge Kramer feels that the AT Trial will never happen and is fine with just taking baby steps towards a "supposed" trial. I think the logic behind that is he doesn't want to waste his time, now that the CAFC and ITC decision will come soon and will change the landscape of how these players will play.

The AT Trial is a stage with the people involved merely actors awaiting the CAFC and ITC.

 

[Magusigne]

buying into the IHSN penny stock hype like THRR. Supposed buy-out. Playing the hyper for a quick flip gain of 75%

 

[AznMthr]

News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.

12s now. is there a way we can link azurik's stock account to this mb and have it tracked in realtime? i need all his trades.

 

[AznMthr]

Bought shares of ITMN in the $10's - the ITMN story isn't as strong as DNDN, and resolution of their drug could (will likely) take years, but it's a speculative position for now (only 750 shares).

azurik, are you in any other drug stock?