***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[Cal166]

ctic took a big hit today.....may jump in on this again

Did you jump in? Would had been a nice bounce play.

 

[JS80]

The construction market will not be stagnant forever. USG doesn't need to refinance their debt. Don't act like every company out there is required to refinance for some reason. Buffett has already got convertible notes that if converted will make him a 30% shareholder on top of his already existing shares. Quite frankly Buffett will probably end up buying USG some day.

USG is grossly undervalued. Your being short sighted. Look at free cash flows after normalizing cap ex and cash from ops. You are looking at the trailing twelve months. While you are at it, read a few of the annual reports and more recent quarterly reports. Your mindset is like that of Jim Cramers. So long as you are grasping for the most recent headlines, you are never going to find bargains. Do some critical thinking about where things will be going over the next 5 years.

USG is worth $30 if the convertible dilution occurs. $40 if it doesn't. Buying at a 66%+ discount is not unreasonable. At normal times, what was free cash flow like? Look at 1999-2004 for prehousing-boom numbers. Toss on inflation and the future effects of inflation on top of those numbers to see where this company is going. And remember, USG is a domicile so it's financials will be coupled to US inflationary trends.

Now you're being a troll.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Now you're being a troll.

If you don't want to think critically about investment or read the USG annual reports, that's your decision. You said that USG has some sort of risk tied to debt structure. how so?

I was simply suggesting that you do some more homework.

 

[JS80]

If you don't want to think critically about investment or read the USG annual reports, that's your decision. You said that USG has some sort of risk tied to debt structure. how so?

I was simply suggesting that you do some more homework.

Wow, you don't even know who you are talking to being condescending like that. I will just laugh at your love affair with a zombie company. Calling me Jim Cramer. Go fuck yourself. I already explained to you why and you come back with calling me Jim Cramer grasping for headlines spouting the stock is worth $30. Go back to your troll cave. Who the fuck is grasping?

 

[marketquotes]

If you don't want to think critically about investment or read the USG annual reports, that's your decision. You said that USG has some sort of risk tied to debt structure. how so?

I was simply suggesting that you do some more homework.

Appreciate your thoughts, keep it up.

 

[richardycc]

Did you jump in? Would had been a nice bounce play.

stay clear of ctic, I don't see how the FDA can approval it, with the shorten trial and only roughly only half of the people enrolled in the trial, along with the side effects....JMHO, but miracles do happen.

 

[snoopdoug1]

stay clear of ctic, I don't see how the FDA can approval it, with the shorten trial and only roughly only half of the people enrolled in the trial, along with the side effects....JMHO, but miracles do happen.

I did some DD on CTIC as well, decided not to buy. The bigger question is will GNVC get good news and/or an approval, because I did decide to buy that one

 

[SandEagle]

Did you jump in? Would had been a nice bounce play.

couldn't offload my other crappy stocks to get the funds to buy. i got a feeling they're close to approval. its all good though. bought in last year low and sold a few months back.

 

[theeedude]

Been selling my stuff on bumps. Gonna sit on cash and wait for the double dip recession crash. I've more than doubled from my buying binge from fall 2008 dip, so gonna cash in and wait for another lowball buying op. Too many optimists out now. Sure I may miss out another 10-20% run, but I'll take my chances if it means preserving powder for potential 100-200% run.

 

[endervalentine]

Been selling my stuff on bumps. Gonna sit on cash and wait for the double dip recession crash. I've more than doubled from my buying binge from fall 2008 dip, so gonna cash in and wait for another lowball buying op. Too many optimists out now. Sure I may miss out another 10-20% run, but I'll take my chances if it means preserving powder for potential 100-200% run.

Any thoughts on how far this time the recession will crash to? I'm thinking it won't fall to the low levels of March since it's still fresh in a lot of people minds, maybe 9k-8.5k but not the low 7ks.

 

[Azurik]

I sold my RMBS Feb 22.5 puts for a big profit - helped cushion RMBS going down with the rest of the market.

I'm still firmly entrenched in the belief that RMBS will be a 500 lb gorilla in the future, but it's very susceptible to the market's downturn. I'll be watching the $20 level.

The only play now is to buy long-term puts as insurance on stocks you have exposure to. Cash and RMBS remains my two biggest positions, along with PIMCO bonds.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Appreciate your thoughts, keep it up.

Not a problem. Some people don't understand that investing is part ownership of a business (A "C Corporation"). You point out their faults and instead of the other party thinking about what was said, they get defensive. Resort to name calling (troll, F bomb, etc). debt/equity means next to nothing. To a business owner, they care about their ability to pay off debt. Equity does not tell you much about this matter.

I should just give up. To many people treat investing like religion. They believe in EPS and debt/equity simply because they do. Imagine talking about discounted cash flow modeling on your favorite investing TV show. You'd loose 95% of your viewers. Might as well just stick with EPS. That is just division of two numbers. Tell people that there is more than what the media talks about and it is not believable for some reason. The reason that debt/equity, EPS and other simple numbers are talked about is because they have to be talked about to keep viewership. And therefore keep the ad revenue coming in. If a show did not do this, it would not be on TV for long since it is not profitable.

Thinking that the housing market will never turn is just a flaw in human nature. This is in regards to the psychology of human misjudgment. This book is awesome about discussing these points:
Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger, 3rd Edition (Hardcover)
http://www.amazon.com/Seeking-Wisdom.../dp/1578644283

I am about half way through it. It's alot of stuff that is obvious but it points out the fact that these are real flaws in everyone. People see a down trend and think things will never get better. or the opposite happens (like in 2000) and the stock market gets irrationally exuberant.

For what it is worth, my Jim Cramer comment was misunderstood. The point is that Jim Cramer (if you've seen his show) is asked about a myriad of companies. No one knows 500 stocks well, not to mention 5000. He looks at some data on his desk during the lightening round (ya, you can see him do so, it is obvious) and he immediately comes up with a buy/sell recommendation. Cash from ops is a metric that can be found in under a minute. My point was that there is more to USG that cash from ops. Perhaps this type of long winded explanation would have been better. It’s that human psychology thing. Sometimes things are so obvious to ones self, that they fail to notice that it is not obvious to everyone else. Quite frankly, when I watch Cramer I tend to laugh a lot. It really is a funny show if you actually know how to invest intelligently. Then there is the realization that this guy is watched by a lot of people. And a vast majority of people aren’t laughing with you. Then some feelings of sadness creep in. I really feel sorry for people that appreciate Cramer for his “insights”

 

[IEC]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1067...nd-rambus-heading-higher.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

Cramer recommended RMBS, guess it's time to sell (mostly kidding)

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1067...nd-rambus-heading-higher.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI

Cramer recommended RMBS, guess it's time to sell (mostly kidding)

51/49 chance in his favor based on past results.

 

[JS80]

To many people treat investing like religion.

Wow man, re-read your post and look at yourself in the mirror.

What do you do for a living? What is your educational background?

 

[IEC]

Are my eyes deceiving me, or does GNVC show as last sale $1.98 @ 4PM on both brokerage + Google finance?!

 

[Jassi]

I see 1.74 close with 1.75 AH.

Edit: On Google.

 

[richardycc]

There were 656 shares traded at 1.98 right at 4pm + a few seconds, they some how counted that as aftermarket trade.
So it either someone tried to paint the tape, or a fat finger trade.

 

[KingGheedora]

you will pocket about $500..not bad for a few mins of 'work' eh?
It's totally different with real money thou, it's like playing poker online with fake money.

Plus you can only do 3 round trips (one buy and sell of the same stock)every 5 days, over that, your broker will label you as daytrader, I think they also report that to the IRS. you will need to have a margin account with $25k or they will shut off your account for 90days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pattern_day_trader

What's the point of that rule?

 

[richardycc]

What's the point of that rule?

I think is to protect you. a lot of daytraders lost money during the dotcom bubble, and back in the days, anyone with a computer, internet connection, and a cheap online trading account can become a 'daytrader.'

 

[Jassi]

Also to protect brokers as I understand the rules. Trades take a couple of days to settle. If you are a very active trader, the brokerage allows you to continue trading using your margin while your trades settle and the broker has cash to put back in your account. Margin accounts, although credit given to you by your broker, may also offer protection to the broker since they are a loan.

I think is to protect you. a lot of daytraders lost money during the dotcom bubble, and back in the days, anyone with a computer, internet connection, and a cheap online trading account can become a 'daytrader.'

 

[richardycc]

GenVec files $150M mixed securities shelf...no details yet..don't need to panic, this might actually be good news, they are acting like they will need a HUGE amount of money in the near future...which could only mean one thing...they need the money to commericalize TNFerade. OR this is the greatest scam ever.

 

[KDKPSJ]

GenVec files $150M mixed securities shelf...no details yet..don't need to panic, this might actually be good news, they are acting like they will need a HUGE amount of money in the near future...which could only mean one thing...they need the money to commericalize TNFerade. OR this is the greatest scam ever.

Hope it's 2010 edition of HGSI/DNDN saga

 

[Azurik]

Welcome back Azurik Can't imagine being off the net for so long, but I'm glad to hear you had a nice trip. What'd you do over there?

Thanks eLiu! The trip was amazing! I wasn't ready to come back home yet. Belarus is a soviet time capsule, and you really feel like you were living back when it was the USSR. The passport, visa forms, embassy regulations, registration while you're there, etc. requirements are a nightmare. I was lucky to know the girls there to help me out with everything. It's definitely not tourist-friendly, but if you know people who live there, it's one of the best experiences.

I took over 500+ photos and videos. It snowed everyday and the temperature was around 0 degrees, hahaha. It made it fun though! We went to restaurants to try authentic Belarussian cuisine, WWII museums, art galleries, ice-skating, clubbing (where they not only have dress requirements, but also face control), famous churches... just everything.

The girls there were more or less like the girls I knew - it's like a walking supermodel city with women in size 0, 2, 4, or 6. There's literally zero people who are overweight. They just eat pretty healthy and walk everywhere. The people are extremely hospitable and friendly. English is rarely spoken and only with the younger crowd in a limited capacity. I was probably one of the only two American tourist... and this is the 12th biggest city in Europe!

I posted a few pictures here if you wanna take a look: http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=2235511&id=11001628&l=c0baa8909b (no sign-up required)

 

[Jassi]

Do you have a link?

Theoretically, if I don't get laid off tomorrow, I might dip in for more shares. I'm curious how this will affect the PPS.

OT: Yes, things are pretty bad at the moment at work. Every non-payroll Friday brings a risk of more pink slips being handed out. Yay!

@ Azurik: I am really jealous at the moment. I've been meaning to check out the eastern block, particularly Latvia.

GenVec files $150M mixed securities shelf...no details yet..don't need to panic, this might actually be good news, they are acting like they will need a HUGE amount of money in the near future...which could only mean one thing...they need the money to commericalize TNFerade. OR this is the greatest scam ever.