***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[richardycc]

Well said.

GNVC has another nice jump today.

If Azurik put his ~$250k RMBS money into GNVC when it was around 80cents, they would be worth over $680k now.

 

[Azurik]

If Azurik put his ~$250k RMBS money into GNVC when it was around 80cents, they would be worth over $680k now.

hahaha

How about even better:

I bought and recommended DNDN here when it was trading at $4. If I had put $250,000 RMBS money into DNDN $4, it would be worth $1,875,000 now.

It's all relative to one's current position. FYI, I think Dendreon is the next Amgen. That stock has potential to go over $100 per share if everything goes according to plan.

My RMBS shares is now worth over $315,000 - and has more than quadrupled in the past year. I still remember when I was in high school when I bought my first 100 RMBS shares... it's been quite a while.

re: RMBS - GREAT day so far! 44 block trades have been traded with block volume of 1,700,000 shares - total volume at 15,600,000 shares. Well above the 2,500,000 daily average. I think the shorts have taken this golden opportunity (that it didn't go any higher yet) to cover with modest losses. This week and especially next week will be a behemoth if Friday goes well.

 

[manlymatt83]

@Azurik: I have 600 shares of RMBS, and 200 of them are tied up in $22 february written calls. I'm tempted to close out those calls even though they are in the money, and write two new, march $30 calls. Then, if by some chance RMBS skyrockets over $30 before March, I'll get the full benefit on the 400 shares and part on the 200.

Then again, the premium would only be about $250 right now, and that's not much to cover me if RMBS heads down....

 

[HopJokey]

hahaha

How about even better:

I bought and recommended DNDN here when it was trading at $4. If I had put $250,000 RMBS money into DNDN $4, it would be worth $1,875,000 now.

It's all relative to one's current position. FYI, I think Dendreon is the next Amgen. That stock has potential to go over $100 per share if everything goes according to plan.

My RMBS shares is now worth over $315,000 - and has more than quadrupled in the past year. I still remember when I was in high school when I bought my first 100 RMBS shares... it's been quite a while.

re: RMBS - GREAT day so far! 44 block trades have been traded with block volume of 1,700,000 shares - total volume at 15,600,000 shares. Well above the 2,500,000 daily average. I think the shorts have taken this golden opportunity (that it didn't go any higher yet) to cover with modest losses. This week and especially next week will be a behemoth if Friday goes well.

Heh I love hindsight/"what-if" it's a great game.

If I would have went "all-in" on F in March 09 I'd be sitting pretty.

If I would have bought AAPL in 1998 for X I would have 10X.

If, if, if...

That's the great thing of when you actually did one of those "what-ifs"; you can feel good about the foresight you had on that stock.

 

[Azurik]

@Azurik: I have 600 shares of RMBS, and 200 of them are tied up in $22 february written calls. I'm tempted to close out those calls even though they are in the money, and write two new, march $30 calls. Then, if by some chance RMBS skyrockets over $30 before March, I'll get the full benefit on the 400 shares and part on the 200.

Then again, the premium would only be about $250 right now, and that's not much to cover me if RMBS heads down....

For me, I wouldn't write March $30 calls at this time. If you truly believe Thursday/Friday will be bad, and that the market turns sour and RMBS won't have any positives in the next two months, then yes, you should write.

If I were writing and wanted maximum profit, I would wait until Monday of next week - if things go well, you could write $40 calls for bigger profits and your stock gains would be $16 per share before you got called ($40-24 = $16) plus your $40 call premium.

 

[manlymatt83]

For me, I wouldn't write March $30 calls at this time. If you truly believe Thursday/Friday will be bad, and that the market turns sour and RMBS won't have any positives in the next two months, then yes, you should write.

If I were writing and wanted maximum profit, I would wait until Monday of next week - if things go well, you could write $40 calls for bigger profits and your stock gains would be $16 per share before you got called ($40-24 = $16) plus your $40 call premium.

So are you running naked then? You've got a few hundred thousand shares of RMBS - what if bad news comes out and the price is cut in half? Have you purchased any puts to cover potential losses?

That was my goal for writing the calls... if it dives, at least I'd have some protection.

 

[Azurik]

So are you running naked then? You've got a few hundred thousand shares of RMBS - what if bad news comes out and the price is cut in half? Have you purchased any puts to cover potential losses?

That was my goal for writing the calls... if it dives, at least I'd have some protection.

No, I'm not running naked anymore. I have been running naked up until last month. I have mainly Feb $21 puts against my shares (which strangely, are sporting a gain already).

Writing calls is gaining additional profit, a true protection would have been to buy a put. That way, your potential gain is, in theory, unlimited.

I'm not saying this is going to happen next month, but what if RMBS trades at $75? By selling $30 calls, you just lost on a huge amount of profit. If you had bought $21 puts instead, you get the entire gain while losing that small insurance premium.

EDIT: Just to clarify on your post, I have 13,000 shares of RMBS - not a few hundred thousand shares. I wish!

 

[Hey Zeus]

Question guys. Is E Trade any good? Have a thousand to play with and wouldn't mind getting into the stock market. Whats a good program to get into for newbies?

 

[manlymatt83]

No, I'm not running naked anymore. I have been running naked up until last month. I have mainly Feb $21 puts against my shares (which strangely, are sporting a gain already).

Writing calls is gaining additional profit, a true protection would have been to buy a put. That way, your potential gain is, in theory, unlimited.

I'm not saying this is going to happen next month, but what if RMBS trades at $75? By selling $30 calls, you just lost on a huge amount of profit. If you had bought $21 puts instead, you get the entire gain while losing that small insurance premium.

EDIT: Just to clarify on your post, I have 13,000 shares of RMBS - not a few hundred thousand shares. I wish!

I actually meant a few hundred thousand IN shares (as in value). Sorry, my bad

And gees, do you really think RMBS still has a chance to climb over $30 or $40 now that the Samsung settlement is over?

 

[Azurik]

I actually meant a few hundred thousand IN shares (as in value). Sorry, my bad

And gees, do you really think RMBS still has a chance to climb over $30 or $40 now that the Samsung settlement is over?

Absolutely. I think the settlement was a sweetheart deal for Samsung, but Rambus benefits from the cash infusion. The quarterly payments from Samsung alone doubles Rambus' revenues. The most important thing for Rambus is that their future design wins are almost a shoe-in with their renewed relationship with Samsung.

Hynix needs to settle with Rambus. They are already paying more than Samsung even though they're a smaller player. After the CAFC appeal is up, Hynix will have paid $400+ million to Rambus JUST for Farmwald/Horowitz patents that cover SDRAM/DDR1. They are still in danger with the DD2+ trial. They are still liable for the price-fixing AT case.

Smaller companies will now sign with RMBS after Samsung has. Companies on the fence or ones that Rambus' has held off from signing a small deal will jump on the bandwagon.

With memory, mobile and graphic chips, it's not unreasonable to say RMBS will be a $150 stock 5 years from now. Rambus should have been a $300+ stock a long time ago if corruption didn't exist and big conglomerates didn't try to kill the company. The damage the FTC has done (even if RMBS ultimately won) is immeasurable. You cannot make up for lost time/lost market opportunities.

Samsung's settlement opened up the dam that was lodged for a long time, IMHO. They have a very similiar situation as to QCOM or CREE (and look what they've done).

 

[Azurik]

I got back into DNDN @ $29 after discussing it here. Opportunity too great to miss out... may get puts to hedge the FDA decision in May.

 

[marketquotes]

I got back into DNDN @ $29 after discussing it here. Opportunity too great to miss out... may get puts to hedge the FDA decision in May.

Are you in HGSI? I still find them attractive after first buying in last June. With a pipeline plus the first Lupus drug in 50 years that is likely to be approved they have room to move up IMOP.

 

[richardycc]

Anyone gonna buy some Berkshire Hathaway B shares after 1 to 50 split? People used to pay big bucks to attend the annual shareholders meeting, and now all you need is 1 post-split share to have the right to attend.

 

[The-Noid]

The passes are $1.00 on Ebay BRK sells them.

 

[AUMM]

I got back into DNDN @ $29 after discussing it here. Opportunity too great to miss out... may get puts to hedge the FDA decision in May.

what do you see DNDN topping out at?

 

[richardycc]

The passes are $1.00 on Ebay BRK sells them.

really? maybe I got that mixed up with lunch with Warren Buffett.

 

[yahooguy77]

really? maybe I got that mixed up with lunch with Warren Buffett.

Yeah that's probably it. Dinner/Lunch with Warren Buffett is an expensive auction affair. Richard, how are you liking your GNVC ?

 

[Azurik]

what do you see DNDN topping out at?

If FDA passes in May, I see DNDN higher than $50. If it doesn't, I think DNDN will crash down, possibly to single digits.

Long-term if FDA passes, I think Provenge will become huge for them nevermind the other drugs they can mimic with the same technique. I can see it topping out over $100+.

Looking back, I wish when I bought DNDN at $4 that I never sold $10 calls... it made a pittance instead of a goldmine.

 

[richardycc]

Yeah that's probably it. Dinner/Lunch with Warren Buffett is an expensive auction affair. Richard, how are you liking your GNVC ?

I love it, up another $7k+ today, what's not to like, right? The partnership with Novartis has basically validated Genvec's adenovirus vector technology. But with mini-judgement day coming in 10-12weeks, I am excited yet worried the data might not be good enough. I guess we will have to wait until they release the next interim analysis. what's your take on this?

 

[Demo24]

Question guys. Is E Trade any good? Have a thousand to play with and wouldn't mind getting into the stock market. Whats a good program to get into for newbies?

Since no one else answered, E-trade is fine but for minimal traders they cost a lot more than the competition. Just to buy and then sell, it would cost you 26 bucks in total fees. Fair bit of money when at this point you'd be just happy to come out a bit ahead. There's a fair many out there, just do some research. I got in Zecco last summer, and find it fine for me. For whatever reason when I use Etrade I don't always get as close to my price target as I do with zecco, and they delay quotes on the position view.

----

I'm hoping tomorrow will be a better day. Looks like the market went up a touch there at the end, which let RMBS go up a bit more. Guess market pressure kind of dulled the news.

 

[El Guaraguao]

Question guys. Is E Trade any good? Have a thousand to play with and wouldn't mind getting into the stock market. Whats a good program to get into for newbies?

I learned a lot from howthemarketworks.com. I also downloaded a shit load eBooks, relating to making money in the stock market. If you're interested in these eBooks, hit me up with a private message.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I love it, up another $7k+ today, what's not to like, right? The partnership with Novartis has basically validated Genvec's adenovirus vector technology. But with mini-judgement day coming in 10-12weeks, I am excited yet worried the data might not be good enough. I guess we will have to wait until they release the next interim analysis. what's your take on this?

I agree, although my profits are a lot less than yours!

I think we may see some big moves when the data comes out, even if they don't get FDA approval. I almost see the Novartis partnership as a way for Genvec to get money, and a way for Novartis to set themselves up for a partnership with TNFerade (again, assuming approval). Novartis/Genvec have a lot of similarities in terms of drugs. I found it encouraging that the current partnership had options for up to ~$200M, while the market cap of Genvec was only $180 at the time I'm considering accumulating some more, but my fear of the data is holding me back. Everything seems to say it's good, but people thought the same thing when SOMX crashed a few weeks ago... time will tell...

 

[Dubb]

well, on a down day, I had a huge one

BK 5%
GNVC 13%
RMBS 16%
CREE 17%

in one day my net worth jumped more than I'll make at my day job in the next 7 months. I suspect there'll be a bit of a correction in CREE and BK tomorrow, but still feels nice.

But what the hell to do with my CREE stock? it's grown to a sizable chunk of my portfolio, and the price feels too high. But the company is solid, and I have little doubt they will grow for some time.

May sell my AAPL shares soon, But have decided to hold on to BK unless a real estate opportunity comes up. GNVC I'm waiting for data. News will be neutral to good - the results won't be counting the people still alive (arguably the biggest positive data points), skewing things towards the negative.

 

[cheezy321]

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2010/01/21/3/0501000000AEN20100121003100320F.HTML

Hynix says settlement with Rambus on the table

SEOUL, Jan. 21 (Yonhap) -- Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the world's second-largest memory chip maker, said Thursday its decade-long legal battle with Rambus Inc. over chip technology is "open to settlement" outside of court.

The remark by an official at the South Korean company comes a day after Samsung Electronics Co., its larger rival, settled suits with Rambus in a new license deal that could end up costing the tech giant US$900 million won over the next five years.

"All legal claims are open to settlement," the Hynix official said on condition of anonymity.

In March, a U.S. court ruled in favor of Rambus in a case alleging that Hynix infringed on 15 Rambus patents related to dynamic random access memory chip technology.

The court ordered Hynix to pay $397 million in compensation and additional royalties to the Los Altos, California-based technology licensing company. Hynix lodged an appeal in April.

Hynix executives declined to comment on the issue during a conference call with investors.

"We don't think this is the time for us to give you our intentions," said James Kim, vice president of investor relations.

"We appealed to the second high court for the court process and we are simply waiting for the result of the progress from that," he added.

Also Thursday, Hynix reported two straight profitable quarters, logging 657 billion won (US$578 million) between October-December, compared with a net loss of 1.69 trillion won in the same period a year ago.

 

[srisam]

Hi all

I just found this article on google finance about hynix settlement with rambus on table. It's korean website, so I don't know its for real.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2010/01/21/3/0501000000AEN20100121003100320F.HTML

Sorry, I was late and already posted by cheezy321