*** OFFICIAL *** 2010 MLB Season thread!!

[SP33Demon]

Nine run seventh inning explosion carries the Phils past the Rockies. Sure, it's Coors Field, but Howard and especially Chase Utely are finally showing signs of life after coming back from injuries.

If those two and Jimmy Rollins catch fire, the Phils will be tough to beat down the stretch.

The Braves are are a hella good team, but if the Phils offense returns to form that two game NL East lead the Braves have will be hard to hold onto.

Yep, especially Howard. His spray chart was pathetic since he's been back, he has barely pulled anything like he normally does and there was speculation that putting his weight on that ankle was still an issue since most of his hits were opposite field. Crazy game last night.

Crashburnalley makes a good case for Hamels being a possible top 3 Cy Young candidate sabermetrically but it's obvious he won't win it because of his W/L record.

The stat-savvy among us called for a rebound for Hamels, but he has exceeded even those expectations. After adding a cut fastball and tacking on two MPH of velocity on his four-seam fastball, Hamels bolstered his strikeout rate to an average of over one per inning and slightly increased his rate of inducing ground balls. Per FanGraphs’ pitch-type linear weights, all of Hamels’ pitches have been above-average.

The results have been phenomenal but, unfortunately, he does not have the sparkling won-lost record to earn him widespread praise and potential Cy Young votes from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Hamels’ 8-10 record is a testament to the Phillies’ futile offense, not to poor performances on his part. Using support-neutral wins and losses from Baseball Prospectus, his winning percentage jumps from .444 (eight wins out of 18 decisions) to .560 (15 wins in 27 decisions; it assigns a win or a loss to every start, leaving out no-decisions), essentially a three-game jump. ...

Sabermetrically, Hamels is arguably the third-best on the list at the moment. A realistic Sabermetric top-five could go: Halladay, Wainwright, Hamels, Johnson, Latos. With a month left in the season, a lot may change. But for now, it’s nice to realize that the Phillies have two top-three Cy Young candidates in their starting rotation. Given Hamels’ fall from grace and the Cliff Lee trade, the phrase “the Phillies have two top-three Cy Young candidates in their starting rotation” was never expected to be uttered in September 2010.

 

[thepd7]

The Phillies get swept four straight by the lowly Astros and look bad in the process. Then they go on the road to San Diego and sweep the Padres, the team with the best record by far in the entire National League, and the Phils play heads-up, intelligent small ball all three games.

Baseball. Go figure.

I know how you feel. My Rangers are pretty hot and cold too right now.

Yeah 103 holy shite. And he hit 105 on the gun in the minors (scout gun and stadium gun both confirmed it). Just what the Cards didn't need after Wainwright is pitching horrible and Carpenter is off as well.

Votto is 3 HR's away from tying Albert to vie for the Triple Crown, can he do it? Albert hurt his ankle 2 nights ago and went 0-3 last night, dropping his average down to .316 while Votto is up to around .329 now. However, it would be foolish to count The Machine out of anything.

In other news, Justin Morneau still needs more time from that concussion as the Twins hold onto that 4 game lead vs the White Sox and Manny. The good news is that they still have Mauer, who is 1 of only 3 players to have more walks than K's (Miggy Cabrera and Daric Barton are the other 2) in the AL.

Derek Jeter was finally demoted to the #2 spot as Gardner rightfully takes the leadoff spot as he should have done all season (I've always said Girardi is not a good manager, great example there), /golfclap.

Marquee matchup tonight: Jimenez vs Lincecum as both teams are chasing the Phils in the wildcard and desparate for a win. Oswalt vs Kershaw should also be a great rubber game. In the AL, Marcum vs Price and Scherzer vs Liriano should be good ones too.

Managing the Yankees is about managing people and personalities, not actual games. The greatest challenge is the greatest advantage: unlimited money and talent.

 

[jalaram]

With regards to the AL Cy Young, Sabathia has the big lead in wins and a good ERA, but Buchholz has a great ERA and 15 wins. I have a feeling that it's CC's to lose, but Clay is pretty close.

The Rays have a 9 game AL East road trip followed by a stretch that has 7 games against the Yanks.

A funny aside: One of my co-workers is a die-hard Red Sox fan/season ticket holder. Knowing that I'm a bit of a Rays fan and he can't go to the game on Wednesday, he offers me a chance to buy the tickets. The problem? My son has soccer games and my daughter has ballet on Wednesday nights. Arrrrrrrrgh!

However, all's well that ends well. His father also has season tix and can't go Tuesday. I now will finally see a game at Fenway for the first time ever and see the Rays for the first time since I left TB 7 years ago. Now, to find a sitter.

 

[rcpratt]

King Felix is the one that deserve the ALCY. But he won't get it because he's 10-10 and CC will probably end up with 22 wins. I hate the morons that vote on wins.

 

[jalaram]

King Felix is the one that deserve the ALCY. But he won't get it because he's 10-10 and CC will probably end up with 22 wins. I hate the morons that vote on wins.

I can't believe I forgot about Hernandez. My bad. As you stated, I was only looking at wins.

BTW, Jayson Stark agrees with you.

ESPN link

But remember, this is a performance award, period. And King Felix leads the league in every meaningful sabermetric pitching stat on Earth except adjusted ERA+ (where Buchholz is No. 1 -- and Sabathia ranks ninth).

Even if you compare more traditional numbers, though, Hernandez has an ERA that's three-quarters of a run lower than Sabathia's, an opponent OPS that's 74 points lower, more innings pitched, a better strikeout rate and a better WHIP.

So if you truly analyze the big picture, Buchholz (your ERA leader) and Wilson (whose team is 15-2 in his past 17 starts) should rank ahead of Sabathia in this race. But are voters really ready to ignore that win column completely? We'll find out. Won't we?

 

[SP33Demon]

I can't believe I forgot about Hernandez. My bad. As you stated, I was only looking at wins.

BTW, Jayson Stark agrees with you.

ESPN link

Yeah Hernandez has been amazing this year. Screw Fat CC and his 20 wins off Yankee hitting and that bandbox stadium.

One thing I don't agree with Stark on:

This AL rookie donnybrook isn't quite as insane as the NL tussle. But we still find ourselves leaving the likes of Sergio Santos, Brennan Boesch, Carlos Santana, John Jaso and Danny Valencia out of this top three. So it's still a heck of a field.

Neftali Feliz has been fabulous in a critical bullpen gig for the Rangers and Wade Davis has done well as a starting pitcher for the Rays. But Austin Jackson has had the most impact on his team of any rookie in his league during the season's first five months.

If he just keeps doing what he's been doing, he'll hit .300, get 190 hits, score 100 runs and steal 25 bases. And the only other rookie who has done all that in the official rookie era is Ichiro Suzuki. But of course, Ichiro had actually been doing that stuff for years on the other side of the Pacific. Jackson is doing it at age 23 in his first year in a new organization (Detroit).

"Plus, he's played an unbelievable center field," one scout said. "And unlike the pitchers, it's been everyday production -- and he's maintained it."

Then again, Jackson is also on course to lead the league in strikeouts, which isn't exactly an ideal trait for a leadoff man. And if his contact issues worsen, the course of September events still could rewrite his rookie of the year script.

Ichiro batted .350 in his ROY season and struck out 53 times in almost 700 AB's. This guy Jackson has struck out 141 times in 500 AB's, no way in hell he will stay above .300 with only a .35x OBP. Give the ROY to Neftali.

 

[rcpratt]

I can't believe I forgot about Hernandez. My bad. As you stated, I was only looking at wins.

BTW, Jayson Stark agrees with you.

ESPN link

Sorry, wasn't calling you a moron The so-called "expert" voters that go straight to the win column are the ones that annoy me.

I'd like to see AJax win ALROY and he probably will. His fielding has been absolutely amazing...and completely unnoticed. Maybe if Galarraga had gotten his perfect game everyone would have noticed the catch he made in the ninth. Yeah, his BABiP is still inflated and he's not going to be able to sustain .300 until he cuts down on the Ks, but that's fine...he's still only 23. Ichiro was 28 in his "rookie" season. Neftali is certainly equally deserving, though.

 

[Perknose]

I know it's a small sample -- Rockies/Phillies games -- and that the Rockies are a talented team with a winning record despite several key injuries this season, but almost every time I've seen them play against the Phillies of late they've played extremely poor fundamental baseball.

In the games I've watched, they almost always seem to hurt themselves with 2-3 bonehead physical or mental errors each time -- basic stuff like missing the cut-off man in throws from the outfield, not taking the extra base when it's been there, or failing to turn the double play due to poor mechanics in critical situations.

This is the under the radar stuff that separates truly elite teams from the nearly as talented also-rans.

On the Phillies, Jayson Werth has been our prime meathead -- an uber talented player but one who doesn't always keep his head in the game. Shane Victorino has occasionally done the same in the past, but has improved.

On the physical side of the ledger, Ryan Howard's sheer size contributes to some obvious holes in his defense, at which he has nevertheless worked very, very hard to get better.

Howard can also look SO bad at the plate for long stretches at a time that it's can be a surprise to look up and see the positive offensive stats he has put up.

But for the most part, the Phillies are blessed with a veteran core whose work ethic and fundamental approach sets an extremely high standard as to how this game and it's grinding 162 game schedule should be played.

It's something we Phillies fans can kind of take for granted until we watch a team like the Rockies or the Marlins who have lots of talent but no seeming dedication to the fundamentals.

In baseball, you can shine for a quarter of a season, a half of a season . . . hell, you can have a career year, even . . . but if you have a weakness or a hole in your game that you don't address, if you stop making constant adjustments to the constant adjustments the league is making on you, if you lack the necessary mental and emotional toughness for the long haul, this game will chew you up and spit you out and never look back.

 

[SP33Demon]

On the Phillies, Jayson Werth has been our prime meathead -- an uber talented player but one who doesn't always keep his head in the game. Shane Victorino has occasionally done the same in the past, but has improved.

On the physical side of the ledger, Ryan Howard's sheer size contributes to some obvious holes in his defense, at which he has nevertheless worked very, very hard to get better.

Looks like Werth hired Scott Boras to be his agent (rumor mill) after he fired his current one. D.Brown will be a suitable replacement but he is a very talented player.

Howard finally started hitting again. Braves have to be sweating only a half a game up and SF charging hard for that wild card.

In the AL, I was comparing CC (19-5) to Felix Hernandez (11-10) and it's not even close. King Felix has to win the Cy Young if you look at the stats vs CC:

Innings pitched: 219.1 (1st in league) vs 202.2
ERA: 2.30 (2nd in league) vs 3.02
ERA vs teams > .500 win percentage: 2.41 ERA vs 3.27
ERA+: 175 vs 132
WHIP: 1.085 (3rd in league) vs 1.199
BA against: .219 vs .239
BA against with RISP: .203 vs .243
Total Bases Allowed: 258 vs 268
Complete Games/Shutout: 5/1 vs 2/0
K's: 209 (first in league) vs 165
K/9 ratio: 8.6 vs 7.3
BB/9 ratio: 2.5 vs 2.9
K/BB ratio: 3.48 vs 2.54
Ground ball to fly ball percentage: 52.8 to 50.3
WAR value: 5.5 vs 4.3

Seattle is ranked dead last in runs scored, in fact 32 less than Pittsburgh!
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_t...eballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=R

One other fascinating tidbit from mlb.com: <<<If he keeps pitching the way he has, Hernandez would become the fifth AL pitcher since 1950 to have consecutive seasons with a 2.50 (or lower) ERA. The others are Jim Palmer (1972-73), Pedro Martinez (1999-2000), Gary Peters (1963-64, '66-67) and Tommy John (1967-68). >>>

Felix is decimating CC in every meaningful statistic known to man and it would be a shame if he didn't get the Cy Young because his team can't plate a run and have given him an 11-10 record so far.

 

[Perknose]

Looks like Werth hired Scott Boras to be his agent (rumor mill) after he fired his current one. D.Brown will be a suitable replacement but he is a very talented player.

Howard finally started hitting again. Braves have to be sweating only a half a game up and SF charging hard for that wild card.

In the AL, I was comparing CC (19-5) to Felix Hernandez (11-10) and it's not even close. King Felix has to win the Cy Young if you look at the stats vs CC:

Innings pitched: 219.1 (1st in league) vs 202.2
ERA: 2.30 (2nd in league) vs 3.02
ERA vs teams > .500 win percentage: 2.41 ERA vs 3.27
ERA+: 175 vs 132
WHIP: 1.085 (3rd in league) vs 1.199
BA against: .219 vs .239
BA against with RISP: .203 vs .243
Total Bases Allowed: 258 vs 268
Complete Games/Shutout: 5/1 vs 2/0
K's: 209 (first in league) vs 165
K/9 ratio: 8.6 vs 7.3
BB/9 ratio: 2.5 vs 2.9
K/BB ratio: 3.48 vs 2.54
Ground ball to fly ball percentage: 52.8 to 50.3
WAR value: 5.5 vs 4.3

Seattle is ranked dead last in runs scored, in fact 32 less than Pittsburgh!
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_t...eballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2010&sortByStat=R

One other fascinating tidbit from mlb.com: <<<If he keeps pitching the way he has, Hernandez would become the fifth AL pitcher since 1950 to have consecutive seasons with a 2.50 (or lower) ERA. The others are Jim Palmer (1972-73), Pedro Martinez (1999-2000), Gary Peters (1963-64, '66-67) and Tommy John (1967-68). >>>

Felix is decimating CC in every meaningful statistic known to man and it would be a shame if he didn't get the Cy Young because his team can't plate a run and have given him an 11-10 record so far.

Sabermetrics have proven to be fascinating, productive tools for digging into this game we like to call baseball.

Still, statheads, at the end of the day the game IS about the bottom line, wins and losses.

No way I can endorse giving King Felix the Cy Young with an 11-10 or so record, no matter how well he may have pitched.

Look, in Lefty's (Steve Carlton) first year with the Phillies, he went 27-10, and did so for a team every bit as bad and every bit as offensively challenged as the current day Mariners.

The entire team only won 67 games, which means everyone else except Carlton won a grand total of 40. The next best starting pitcher won 4 games!

My point is, no matter how cool and insightful sabermetric stats are, at the end of the day, it's wins that count, and no one should be awarded the Cy Young for an 11 win season, ever.

Btw, I am quite sure Cy himself would agree. He reached the bigs at age 23 and won 511 games. At 11 wins per season, he would have just completed his 46th season at age 79 and still not have reached that total. :hmm:

Just sayin'.

Sabermetrics are a great tool, but if you rely on them alone in some stathead nirvana vacuum divorced from the warp and woof and dirt and spit and crotch adjustments in the outfield of the actual game, you can run the risk of becoming a "great tool" your own damn self. :awe:

 

[jalaram]

Still, statheads, at the end of the day the game IS about the bottom line, wins and losses.

If I could only find the article online, but there was a snippet about AL CY race in the Boston Globe on Sunday (because Buchholz is in the running). The (anonymous) opinions of the voters was that wins are still the predominant stat to vote with. One said that younger voters might look at the Sabermetrics, but not the older voters. Let's see if Price or Buchholz (who have lower ERAs) can get close enough in wins to make it a race.

How about them Orioles? I knew they had some decent talent, but they are actually winning with Showalter as manager. Next year could get very interesting.

 

[Perknose]

If I could only find the article online, but there was a snippet about AL CY race in the Boston Globe on Sunday (because Buchholz is in the running). The (anonymous) opinions of the voters was that wins are still the predominant stat to vote with. One said that younger voters might look at the Sabermetrics, but not the older voters. Let's see if Price or Buchholz (who have lower ERAs) can get close enough in wins to make it a race.

Heh, I'm not saying wins are the only thing at all. I'm just saying sabermetrics are also not only thing at all, and that no pitcher with an 11-10 record should ever win the Cy Young.

How about them Orioles? I knew they had some decent talent, but they are actually winning with Showalter as manager. Next year could get very interesting.

Don't get too excited. They still have a long way to go. Still, it's nice to see them not getting punked day in and day out, that offends my sense of fairness and proportion.

 

[SP33Demon]

Sabermetrics have proven to be fascinating, productive tools for digging into this game we like to call baseball.

Still, statheads, at the end of the day the game IS about the bottom line, wins and losses.

No way I can endorse giving King Felix the Cy Young with an 11-10 or so record, no matter how well he may have pitched.

Look, in Lefty's (Steve Carlton) first year with the Phillies, he went 27-10, and did so for a team every bit as bad and every bit as offensively challenged as the current day Mariners.

The entire team only won 67 games, which means everyone else except Carlton won a grand total of 40. The next best starting pitcher won 4 games!

My point is, no matter how cool and insightful sabermetric stats are, at the end of the day, it's wins that count, and no one should be awarded the Cy Young for an 11 win season, ever.

Btw, I am quite sure Cy himself would agree. He reached the bigs at age 23 and won 511 games. At 11 wins per season, he would have just completed his 46th season at age 79 and still not have reached that total. :hmm:

Just sayin'.

Sabermetrics are a great tool, but if you rely on them alone in some stathead nirvana vacuum divorced from the warp and woof and dirt and spit and crotch adjustments in the outfield of the actual game, you can run the risk of becoming a "great tool" your own damn self. :awe:

No, the "bottom line" for this year's AL Cy Young is:
How many wins King Felix would have at Yankee Stadium with the best offense in MLB vs the worst? Easily more than CC, it's a fact. He would have well over 20 with NY's offense. In fact, Felix had 9 no decisions with an ERA of 1.92. CC had 5 no decisions with an ERA of 5.10. What does that tell you?

Wins mean nothing because the pitcher has to rely on: 8 other players for defense, 9 batters to hit the ball, and X amount of bullpen pitchers who easily blow the lead. The Cy Young is based on what the pitcher can control and how well he did in those situations. CC isn't even among the top 3 in situations that he could control (as evidenced by getting shellacked by the Orioles 3 nights ago). The best performer on the mound should get the Cy Young and it's King Felix.

You bring up Carlton but we didn't have the mathematical tools available in his day. All we had were wins, strikeouts, and ERA. Even by those standards Felix takes 2 out of 3.

With today's tools: in the 2 out of 6 years Carlton didn't win it, he didn't deserve it. In 1976, Randy Jones threw 25 complete games w/ 5 shutouts vs Carlton's 13/2 plus a much lower ERA and 60 more Innings pitched. In 1981, Fernando V had 11 complete games with 8 of those as shutouts vs only 1 shutout in Carlton's 10 complete games (otherwise their stats were identical). Voters got it right in all 6 years regarding Carlton without needing sabermetrics.

More and more voters are actually using statistics now, unlike the highway robbery that happened in the 2005 AL Cy Young of Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana. To refresh your memory from '05:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2217711

So now Colon has put an end to that streak -- the third-longest Cy Young drought in the sport (behind the Reds and Rangers). And though we gladly salute Colon for a terrific year, some of us still aren't so sure the right guy got the trophy.

Colon (21-8) did win three more games than anyone else in the American League. And he did become the Angels' first 20-game winner since 1974. And he did have a ferocious finish -- going 10-2 in his last 14 starts, 13-4 in his last 19 starts and 17-5 in his last 25 starts -- for a team that needed every one of his wins to hold off Oakland.

But what this voting really proves is that Cy Young voters are still mushy traditionalists who value the almighty "win" above all other indicators of who pitched best over six grueling months.

Not that there isn't something to be said for pitchers who find a way to win. That is, after all, the object. But Colon sure was helped out by his bullpen (which blew zero saves for him) and his run support (6.02 runs per game).

And if you zap wins out of the who-pitched-best equation and compare him with the guy who finished third in this voting -- Johan Santana -- it wasn't even close.

Santana piled up 81 more strikeouts, beat Colon in ERA by 61 points, allowed almost two fewer baserunners for every nine innings, and had more innings pitched, complete games and shutouts.

Hitters who faced Colon had a batting average of .254 against him. The on-base percentage against Santana was .250. Any more objections, your honor?

True, Colon had five more wins than Santana (21 vs. 16). But since Santana actually pitched more innings, how was that win gap his fault? The win differential is a stat we can attribute almost completely to their offenses. It's that basic.

Colon got a ridiculous 1.32 more runs per game than Santana did. And Santana's totals in his last three no-decisions tell it all: 23 innings, 9 hits, 3 runs, 0 wins.

But the history of the award tells us that no starting pitcher has won just 16 games over a full season and won a Cy Young. (Rick Sutcliffe won 16 for the 1984 Cubs, but he also won four games earlier in the year for Cleveland.)

Voters did make up for it in 2006 by giving it to Johan, but 2005 was just horrible.

Times are starting to change regarding wins though. Greinke overwhelmingly won the Cy Young last year going 16-8 over Felix's 19-5 record because he had superior stats. Linecum won it last year at @15-7 over Carpenter's 17-4 and Wainwright's 19-8 and Timmy didn't even have the lowest ERA (2.48 vs Carpenter's 2.24). But he dominated in strikeouts and that's what won voters over, aside from the fact that the Royals, M's, and Giants were not great last year (but the Cardinals were).

It'll be interesting to see if voters will vote for even lower wins this year, most likely < 15 vs 20+. Times are a changing.

 

[rcpratt]

It'll be interesting to see if voters will vote for even lower wins this year, most likely < 15 vs 20+.

Spoiler alert - they won't.

On an unrelated note, nothing gives me greater satisfaction than denying the White Sox a chance at the playoffs.

 

[Perknose]

No, the "bottom line" for any Cy Young is:
How many wins King Felix would have at Yankee Stadium with the best offense in MLB vs the worst? Easily more than CC, it's a fact. He would have well over 20 with NY's offense.

I'm not opposed to sabermetrics at all, certainly not as much as you might think, BUT, with all due respect . . .

NO bottom line anywhere in any field at any time can or ever has been based on what would have occurred. Saying that means you fundamentally don't understand what "the bottom line" means. It means, at the end of the day, what IS, not what might have been or would have been.

What IS, at the end of the day, that is the ONLY bottom line, ever!

Statistical models, hmmmmmmm. :hmm:

Statistical models are reductionist simplifications of reality! They are useful, but hardly definitive, they NEVER comprise ALL of the many, many interlocking variables of the REALITY of what they attempt to describe.

If they could, economists and political analysts and futurists wouldn't have the freaking, fucking WRETCHED track record in predicting what would have happened or what might happen that they do.

Your certainty in these IMPERFECT and REDUCTIONIST tools is charming, just don't fall in love with them and be blinded by the enduring FACT that, at this stage of our ability to analyze and extrapolate, we cannot predict or say what would have happened with the certainty contained in what I quoted from you above.

The professional sports blowhards you follow are most certainly manly men with fanboy followings of their own, and many can really write well, but they are not the foolproof masters of their domain that they present themselves to be and which many of their readers fully accept them to be.

To this date, REALITY is still far more complex than any statistical abstract of it, and, because of this FACT, you and they simply cannot say with the smug certainty you wish anything about what would have happened if . . .

Just saying.

 

[SP33Demon]

I'm not opposed to sabermetrics at all, certainly not as much as you might think, BUT, with all due respect . . .

NO bottom line anywhere in any field at any time can or ever has been based on what would have occurred. Saying that means you fundamentally don't understand what "the bottom line" means. It means, at the end of the day, what IS, not what might have been or would have been.

What IS, at the end of the day, that is the ONLY bottom line, ever!

Statistical models, hmmmmmmm. :hmm:

Statistical models are reductionist simplifications of reality! They are useful, but hardly definitive, they NEVER comprise ALL of the many, many interlocking variables of the REALITY of what they attempt to describe.

If they could, economists and political analysts and futurists wouldn't have the freaking, fucking WRETCHED track record in predicting what would have happened or what might happen that they do.

Your certainty in these IMPERFECT and REDUCTIONIST tools is charming, just don't fall in love with them and be blinded by the enduring FACT that, at this stage of our ability to analyze and extrapolate, we cannot predict or say what would have happened with the certainty contained in what I quoted from you above.

The professional sports blowhards you follow are most certainly manly men with fanboy followings of their own, and many can really write well, but they are not the foolproof masters of their domain that they present themselves to be and which many of their readers fully accept them to be.

To this date, REALITY is still far more complex than any statistical abstract of it, and, because of this FACT, you and they simply cannot say with the smug certainty you wish anything about what would have happened if . . .

Just saying.

I revised my post up top to include no decisions: Felix has a 1.92 ERA in 9, CC has a 5.10 in 5. What does that tell you?

Most of the stats I look at are the same ones that have been used traditionally (ERA, K's, Comp games, shutouts, innings pitched). While I love baseball so much that I enjoy more advanced statistics, the traditional ones are enough to paint a picture of who has performed better. If a pitcher only has more wins but is significantly worse in every other category, common sense should kick in and tell you that it was a function of the team and not the pitcher.

Statistics are very reliable today but I agree that they do not always tell the complete picture because even modern stats don't account for every situational variable but they come pretty close to the truth. In fact, baseball statisticians are paving the way for modeling in other areas that we could only dream of a decade ago. The prime example is Nate Silver (from wiki):

Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA,[2] a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009.[3]

In 2007 Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election under the pseudonym "Poblano." At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com. On May 30, he revealed his real name to his readers and dropped the "Poblano" moniker on his website.[4] By summer of that year, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media.

The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions – he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states – won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana.

In April 2009 he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by TIME Magazine.[5]

In June 2010 it was announced that Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog would soon begin to be published online by the New York Times.[6][7] The newly renamed blog, FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus, first appeared in the New York Times on August 25, 2010.

While Silver is a math whiz, he showed how powerful advanced statistics can be in predicting outcomes whether political or entertainment (baseball).

 

[Perknose]

I could go on, SP, and I might well at a later point, but the main thing I'd like to add here is that I agree with most of your points far more than might be apparent, and that I certainly do think sabermetrics are an advance in understanding baseball.

Trad or saber or both, you simply can't be an in-depth baseball fan without being something of a stathead. The game invites and even demands it.

As a side note, it is hella' interesting to me both sociologically and psychologically how key certain dead-nuts, testosterone-soaked pursuits like war and defense, "getting to the moon first, by Gawd", and now competitive sports have been key progenitors of such a broad range of scientific and technological advances, down to the very internets on which we presently blather.

 

[raystorm]

Those San Francicso Giants have tied the Padres in the NL West. Can't quite call it a collapse but what the Padres did sure was Mets-like. lol Luckily for them there is still a couple of weeks left in the season to go on a winning streak.

The Phils are alone in first and I think they'll stay there. Nice season by the Braves but I just don't think they are as good as the Phils though I like the Braves pen.

The Reds are hanging on and don't look past those Rockies. They are doing their usual september thing.

 

[BeauJangles]

Sabermetrics have proven to be fascinating, productive tools for digging into this game we like to call baseball.

Still, statheads, at the end of the day the game IS about the bottom line, wins and losses.

You're getting confused here. Nobody is debating that the bottom line for a team is wins and losses. What is being debated is how much control an individual, in this case a pitcher, has over whether HE wins or loses a game.

No way I can endorse giving King Felix the Cy Young with an 11-10 or so record, no matter how well he may have pitched.

look at these two guys:

          IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
pitcher A 209	187	81	73	18	66	170	
pitcher B 183.2	155	51	47	7	48	186

Who would you rather have starting games for you this year?

Which one of these guys has won more games?

Which one of these pitchers is not even in the Cy Young consideration?

The point is simply that both of these guys have gone out and done their jobs well. Pitcher B has done his job better than pitcher A, yet he isn't even in consideration for an award that Pitcher A is considered a lock to win.

Look, in Lefty's (Steve Carlton) first year with the Phillies, he went 27-10, and did so for a team every bit as bad and every bit as offensively challenged as the current day Mariners.

The entire team only won 67 games, which means everyone else except Carlton won a grand total of 40. The next best starting pitcher won 4 games!

So because one guy once won a lot of games for a bad team that means that every good pitcher that plays on a bad team should having a wining record? Talk about a logical fallacy!

Pitchers are forced to rely on other guys to make plays. They have zero to do with what happens when a bounding ball is hit up the middle and [insert great defensive 2nd baseman] makes a spectacular play and turns two versus when [insert crappy 2b] misses the ball and a run scores. Zero.

That is where the quality of the team they play on and their own dumb luck comes into play.

When we evaluate someone, we do it on a basis of their skill, not the skill of others or the luck of others. That's why taking a look at the real numbers that pitchers DO have an influence over is far more telling than pointing to a shiny win total and saying, "oh this guy must clearly be awesome."

My point is, no matter how cool and insightful sabermetric stats are, at the end of the day, it's wins that count, and no one should be awarded the Cy Young for an 11 win season, ever.

Why? The Cy Young is an award given to the best pitcher, not the luckiest pitcher, or the pitcher that plays for the best team. Take one of our example guys above and think about what would happen if you stuck that guy, with those numbers, on a team that scored 3 runs / game and then on a team that averaged 5 runs a game.

Would there be a difference in their win total? Yes.
Would it have anything to do with what the pitcher did? Absolutely not.
Does that someone make the same pitcher who pitched on the better team a more worthy candidate for a Cy Young? No, he pitched two identical seasons for two different teams and got two completely different outcomes in one relatively meaningless category of statistics.

Btw, I am quite sure Cy himself would agree. He reached the bigs at age 23 and won 511 games. At 11 wins per season, he would have just completed his 46th season at age 79 and still not have reached that total. :hmm:

Because the game of baseball in 2010 is identical to the game of baseball in 1900.

Just sayin'

Sabermetrics are a great tool, but if you rely on them alone in some stathead nirvana vacuum divorced from the warp and woof and dirt and spit and crotch adjustments in the outfield of the actual game, you can run the risk of becoming a "great tool" your own damn self. :awe:

A pitcher is one of nine players who takes the field during a baseball game. He almost never pitches the whole game, in one league he is completely unable to help himself score runs (the things you need to win), in the other league, he is pretty helpless at the plate, he relies on eight other guys to field the balls he puts in play, he relies on a catcher to make a gameplan that works, and yet you want to pin an entire team's effort to win or lose just on him?

 

[Perknose]

The Phils are alone in first and I think they'll stay there. Nice season by the Braves but I just don't think they are as good as the Phils though I like the Braves pen.

The Reds are hanging on and look past those Rockies. They are doing their usual september thing.

I wouldn't count the Braves out yet. They still have a ton of home games left, and the best home record in the NL, by far.

Meanwhile, yeah, while other teams grab the spotlight the Rockies have crept back into the mix.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I stayed up past midnight watching the Rangers beat the Yankees 6 to 5 in 13 innings. The blue man group was there for emotional support. Thankfully I was at home but man watching that game was grueling sometimes as neither side would give an inch no matter how close it came. We tied a league record going through 11 pitchers.

The Rangers havent been to the playoffs since 1999.

 

[thepd7]

One thing I don't agree with Stark on:

Ichiro batted .350 in his ROY season and struck out 53 times in almost 700 AB's. This guy Jackson has struck out 141 times in 500 AB's, no way in hell he will stay above .300 with only a .35x OBP. Give the ROY to Neftali.

I'd like to see AJax win ALROY and he probably will. His fielding has been absolutely amazing...and completely unnoticed. Maybe if Galarraga had gotten his perfect game everyone would have noticed the catch he made in the ninth. Yeah, his BABiP is still inflated and he's not going to be able to sustain .300 until he cuts down on the Ks, but that's fine...he's still only 23. Ichiro was 28 in his "rookie" season. Neftali is certainly equally deserving, though.

I have to be honest: I don't even know who this Jackson kid is since I don't have cable and have mainly been getting my baseball fix by listening to the Rangers online, but having a rookie pitcher come in and close the was Feliz has is incredible. The closer role is so mental and it's pretty amazing he's been able to handle it.

I stayed up past midnight watching the Rangers beat the Yankees 6 to 5 in 13 innings. The blue man group was there for emotional support. Thankfully I was at home but man watching that game was grueling sometimes as neither side would give an inch no matter how close it came. We tied a league record going through 11 pitchers.

The Rangers havent been to the playoffs since 1999.

I stayed up and listened, awesome game, Cruz is a beast. I would really like to see us as the 3 seed but I don't think it's going to happen. The most important thing is getting everyone healthy though.

 

[SP33Demon]

I have to be honest: I don't even know who this Jackson kid is since I don't have cable and have mainly been getting my baseball fix by listening to the Rangers online, but having a rookie pitcher come in and close the was Feliz has is incredible. The closer role is so mental and it's pretty amazing he's been able to handle it.

I stayed up and listened, awesome game, Cruz is a beast. I would really like to see us as the 3 seed but I don't think it's going to happen. The most important thing is getting everyone healthy though.

Yeah AJax is still at .306 which is slightly surprising to me. But we still have 20 games left and a lot can happen.

Big win for Texas last night, most likely a playoff preview.

King Felix is pitching tonight vs LAA, it will be interesting to see if he can up that win total!

SD strikes first vs SF in their 1-0 win today. Whoever loses out in the West will not win the wild card unless ATL or Philly really chokes. I see the wild card coming out of the NL East.

Philly's JC Romero just gave up a bases loaded hit vs the Mets so they'll probably lose down 4-0 in the bottom of the 7th. If ATL can hold on vs STL 3-2 then it will be a virtual tie in the NL East... exciting times.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Rangers vs Yankees - Win by default...two in a row....I love it!

 

[SP33Demon]

Rangers vs Yankees - Win by default...two in a row....I love it!

Yup, Mariano walking 2, giving up 2 hits, and hitting a batter in to lose after blowing the save, it doesn't get any better than that.

Following the M's game, Felix had a less than stellar outing by giving up 4ER and only had 5 K's. He's still first in ERA and K's but dropped to 11-11!

I found an error in the game summary by the AP as well:

Ichiro Suzuki extended his hitting streak to 13 games with a three-run homer in the eighth that chased Santana. It was his 2,215th major league hit, breaking a tie with Joe DiMaggio for 167th place all-time. It also put the two-time AL batting champ within 15 hits of reaching the 200 mark for 10th consecutive season, which would tie Pete Rose for the longest such streak in history and snap a tie with Ty Cobb for the longest streak in the AL.

^That is actually wrong the way it's worded as "longest such streak": Pete Rose had 10 200 hit seasons in total but the most "consecutive" he and Cobb ever had were 3... Ichiro is working on #10 in a row! Probably something we will never see again.