***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: MgPak
I have doubled/tripled my money in many of these positions and have also lost a lot. It is very risky but it has its rewards.

If you really have $200k in those stocks, expect it to be worth $50k soon.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: hiromizu
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

marked for future reference.

Future reference is here. BRK up about 50% from March lows.

I think Naustica gave up on the game, he knew he couldn't keep up.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: hiromizu
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

marked for future reference.

Future reference is here. BRK up about 50% from March lows.

I think Naustica gave up on the game, he knew he couldn't keep up.

I was completely wrong on the strength and length of this powerful bear rally. Totally underestimated every phase of the bull's case. To say I missed the big portion of the greatest rally I've seen would be an understatement. I still hate this market but I've been totally wrong. We'll see if 1120 gets taken out to break the big picture downtrend.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: hiromizu
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Naustica
IHateMyJob2004 you can hide behind your I'm a longterm investor and it's not a loss until you sell BS all you want. It's no wonder you rode those banks all the way down since you believe like them that the mark-to-market accounting isn't reflective of the current value and you're right and the rest of the market is wrong. You're still in denial just like the banks you own. If you think the above price targets are complete fantasy, you're really clueless. You have to always respect the downside. Didn't your famed Margin of Safety hero teach you anything? I haven't seen not one post of yours saying you're loading the boat at these depressed level. You should be backing up the truck and going crazy. Let me guess. You spent your entire load at MUCH higher levels. Now you're broke and crazy. You may preach "longterm" but I bet you'll sell at the first breakeven chance you get.

There are variety of styles and ways to make money. I respect people that can make money regardless of style. Maybe once you crawl out of Buffett's ass you will see the light. I say that with complete respect to Buffett as he's the best.

What have been your returns, over the past 20 years, Naustica? Ohhh wait, you're a failed trader.

I bet you're still fawning over those retarded charts which haven't been proven by one empirical, peer reviewed, study that has examined risk-adjusted long-term results.

I am going to bookmark this and rub your face in your own stupidity in a year. At that time I expect to see a picture of you wiping Buffett's ass because that's all you'll ever measure up to.

marked for future reference.

Future reference is here. BRK up about 50% from March lows.

I think Naustica gave up on the game, he knew he couldn't keep up.

I was completely wrong on the strength and length of this powerful bear rally. Totally underestimated every phase of the bull's case. To say I missed the big portion of the greatest rally I've seen would be an understatement. I still hate this market but I've been totally wrong. We'll see if 1120 gets taken out to break the big picture downtrend.

I love your spin. Why does it have to be a "bear rally"?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
because I've been wrong and don't want to call it bull rally yet. I'll concede and call it bull rally if we break 1120. Less than 30 points away in me admitting total failure. Til then I'll hold on to the final straw.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
ok, I think I am done with my accumulation of GNVC for now. I had to sell some HGSI to buy my last batch this morning. volume have been huge for the past few days..close to 20million shares traded just the past 2 days. Could it be ATOT effect?? I hope not, I don't think *I* can move the market like that.

This reminds me of the website fast trade back in 1995-96, does anyone remember that? ;)
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
The ITC Staff just released their findings to the public. They believe that Rambus' patents are valid and that Nvidia is infringing. They recommend that the judge sends Nvidia a cease order and an importatation ban of chips into the U.S.

Judge releases his opinion on Jan 22nd after the trial (which had already started earlier this week).

These patents are relatively new and don't expire until 2015-2020 and unrelated to the DRAM patents Rambus is fighting with Samsung, Hynix and Micron on (which expire next year, but they have other DRAM patents that expire much later).
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
Originally posted by: Azurik
The ITC Staff just released their findings to the public. They believe that Rambus' patents are valid and that Nvidia is infringing. They recommend that the judge sends Nvidia a cease order and an importatation ban of chips into the U.S.

Judge releases his opinion on Jan 22nd after the trial (which had already started earlier this week).

These patents are relatively new and don't expire until 2015-2020 and unrelated to the DRAM patents Rambus is fighting with Samsung, Hynix and Micron on (which expire next year, but they have other DRAM patents that expire much later).

should I buy some RMBS then? where is the link to this news?

 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Azurik
The ITC Staff just released their findings to the public. They believe that Rambus' patents are valid and that Nvidia is infringing. They recommend that the judge sends Nvidia a cease order and an importatation ban of chips into the U.S.

Judge releases his opinion on Jan 22nd after the trial (which had already started earlier this week).

These patents are relatively new and don't expire until 2015-2020 and unrelated to the DRAM patents Rambus is fighting with Samsung, Hynix and Micron on (which expire next year, but they have other DRAM patents that expire much later).

should I buy some RMBS then? where is the link to this news?

I pay several thousands of dollars for a PACER account in order to retrieve court documents when they are made public. This hasn't been reported by the market yet, but you can tell other people knew about the news, there were huge buy orders this morning when it came in.

As to your buying RMBS question... it's up to you. If I didn't have the amount of shares I did, I'd probably buy, even if it's on the high end of its trading range. There's too many events that will be happening in the next 3 months.

On the flip side is, the ITC judge (Essex) is not deciding until January 22nd. The markets could change to bear mode again dropping Rambus heavily with it. Also, this is the same judge who was anti-TSRA and handed down two non-infringements to the companies TSRA was suing. In those cases, the ITC staff also recommended the judge to grant infringement and he didn't listen. However, on appeal, the ITC Commission over-ruled the judge and sided with the ITC staff. So if the judge doesn't follow the staff's advice, the ITC Commission will likely over-rule the judge once again.

The positive here is that Judge Essex agreed with the ITC staff's intepretation of Rambus' patents, so I can't see how he won't agree with himself.

Between this case and the AT trial, I feel strongly that someone is going to buckle and settle (Samsung).
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I love your spin. Why does it have to be a "bear rally"?

IMO the fundamentals aren't there yet. If Q3/Q4 earnings are good, I would say its no longer a bear rally.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Azurik
The ITC Staff just released their findings to the public. They believe that Rambus' patents are valid and that Nvidia is infringing. They recommend that the judge sends Nvidia a cease order and an importatation ban of chips into the U.S.

Judge releases his opinion on Jan 22nd after the trial (which had already started earlier this week).

These patents are relatively new and don't expire until 2015-2020 and unrelated to the DRAM patents Rambus is fighting with Samsung, Hynix and Micron on (which expire next year, but they have other DRAM patents that expire much later).

should I buy some RMBS then? where is the link to this news?

I pay several thousands of dollars for a PACER account in order to retrieve court documents when they are made public. This hasn't been reported by the market yet, but you can tell other people knew about the news, there were huge buy orders this morning when it came in.

As to your buying RMBS question... it's up to you. If I didn't have the amount of shares I did, I'd probably buy, even if it's on the high end of its trading range. There's too many events that will be happening in the next 3 months.

On the flip side is, the ITC judge (Essex) is not deciding until January 22nd. The markets could change to bear mode again dropping Rambus heavily with it. Also, this is the same judge who was anti-TSRA and handed down two non-infringements to the companies TSRA was suing. In those cases, the ITC staff also recommended the judge to grant infringement and he didn't listen. However, on appeal, the ITC Commission over-ruled the judge and sided with the ITC staff. So if the judge doesn't follow the staff's advice, the ITC Commission will likely over-rule the judge once again.

The positive here is that Judge Essex agreed with the ITC staff's intepretation of Rambus' patents, so I can't see how he won't agree with himself.

Between this case and the AT trial, I feel strongly that someone is going to buckle and settle (Samsung).

http://view.samurajdata.se/psv...page=1&size=full&all=1

Sab was kind enough to upload the findings. Here's the 211 page decision. It also goes over why Judge Robinson was wrong with finding that Rambus was guilty of document destruction and spoiliation... and what spoilation truly is, in clearly definable terms. Overall, the findings strongly favor Rambus, and agrees with Judge Whyte that Rambus' document retention policy was normal and disagrees with Judge Robinson that Rambus spoilated... and that even if Rambus did, it is not enough to rule Rambus' patents unenforceable (which is what I've been saying since January when Robinson came out with her crazy logic!).
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I love your spin. Why does it have to be a "bear rally"?

IMO the fundamentals aren't there yet. If Q3/Q4 earnings are good, I would say its no longer a bear rally.

Right now profits are higher on lower revenue. When profits are higher with higher revenue, then you can break out the champagne.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
This is it...judgment day for HGSI on Nov 2nd.


Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:HGSI - News) today announced that it expects to have top-line 52-week results available on Monday, November 2nd, from BLISS-76, the second of two pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials of BENLYSTA? (belimumab) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
Senior management will host a conference call to discuss the results on November 2, 2009 at 8:15 AM Eastern. The BLISS-76 data will later be submitted for full presentation at an appropriate scientific meeting.

Anyone still owns MYST.OB? it has been going up since they announced their name change, 100 to 1 reverse split, and the huge dilution...I sold all my holding today, usually reverse split is bad enough on its own, along with the huge dilution, I thought the stock would tank for sure, but it has been going up. Maybe it is finally getting notice. I might buy after the reverse split.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I love your spin. Why does it have to be a "bear rally"?

IMO the fundamentals aren't there yet. If Q3/Q4 earnings are good, I would say its no longer a bear rally.

Right now profits are higher on lower revenue. When profits are higher with higher revenue, then you can break out the champagne.

Yup, and cutting expenses can only work so long. If top line does not grow/stop going down in Q3/Q4 you will see profits tumble.
 

Ballatician

Golden Member
Dec 6, 2007
1,985
0
0
Originally posted by: vo
Originally posted by: Ballatician

Also, if I was interested in say 5 contracts so 500*0.28 = $140 plus whatever commission. Isn't that the only money I put at risk? All the legal mumbo jumbo has me kind of worried since I'm new to options. I likely wouldn't exercise the contract and instead sell off the option but I can't figure out through my broker if there are minimum size transaction fees or what else I'm getting into. I'm confused.

Yes, $140 plus commission would be your maximum money at risk. About the minimum size transaction fees, it depends on who is your broker

Originally posted by: Ballatician

I just hope I get approved for an appropriate level that I can do some long calls. The first level only allows you to do covered calls/puts/roll-outs and buy-writes or unwinds. In the end I'll probably just stick with my regular stocks until I better understand this process.

Even the first level in option allows you to buy call.

And welcome to the world of options :)

Thanks!

Broker is Schwab btw although thinking about changing this to scottrade or something. I only got approved for level 0 which means I can do all of what I listed (covered calls/puts/roll-outs and buy-writes or unwinds) but longs calls/puts are level 1. Not wanting covered calls or puts at the moment and I'm not interested in going beyond level 1 to the world of margins. :)
The approval questionaire asked how often I traded options currently and I said not at all since I wasn't approved so I assume that's why I was rejected. I'm going to call and hopefully rectify this.

Meanwhile C is back below 5 haha.
 

KDKPSJ

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2002
3,288
58
91
Originally posted by: richardycc
This is it...judgment day for HGSI on Nov 2nd.


Human Genome Sciences, Inc. (Nasdaq:HGSI - News) today announced that it expects to have top-line 52-week results available on Monday, November 2nd, from BLISS-76, the second of two pivotal Phase 3 clinical trials of BENLYSTA? (belimumab) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
Senior management will host a conference call to discuss the results on November 2, 2009 at 8:15 AM Eastern. The BLISS-76 data will later be submitted for full presentation at an appropriate scientific meeting.

Anyone still owns MYST.OB? it has been going up since they announced their name change, 100 to 1 reverse split, and the huge dilution...I sold all my holding today, usually reverse split is bad enough on its own, along with the huge dilution, I thought the stock would tank for sure, but it has been going up. Maybe it is finally getting notice. I might buy after the reverse split.

Ah.. Will be another exciting (or sweating :p) moment as a HGSI holder. Since my cost basis is 0, I will not sell any of my HGSI position on Oct 30 anyway. :p
 

hiromizu

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2007
3,405
1
0
: ) I'm up 17% on my total investments in 3 years. Reading this thread, being patient and not doing any work at work has paid off.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: hiromizu
: ) I'm up 17% on my total investments in 3 years. Reading this thread, being patient and not doing any work at work has paid off.

Join the club!
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Time, compound interest, and a healthy respect for capital preservation, is a potent wealth creation machine over time.

It's nice to brag about your 1, 2, or 3 bagger, but if you lost 50% on investment prior to that, 1 bagger only gets you back to even (0% net rate of return).

Mutual fund reports often an include a graph of what $10,000 invested at time that that mutual fund was opened has done. It presumably only had that original $10,000 of principal to start with, and all subsequent gains and losses have to be taken in sequence, along with trading costs and management fees, to get to that it's now worth this much amount.

Also seems to be that avoiding those really big, nasty losses, can have a very important effect upon your actual long term rate of return (not even accounting for the consistent drag of taxes for a heavy trader). Cramer brags about his hedge fund performance (I forgot what he said his average annual rate of return was, but I kind of think he said 22%), but I believe he freely admits he was lucky to be in cash during the 1987 crash, and I think he closed his hedge fund before this nasty multi-year stock market downturn took place.

Kiplinger magazine had recent issue where they listed best performing mutual funds over various time periods, and over 10 - 20 year period, I think Davis New York Venture (similar to Selected American funds) and Dodge and Cox Stock (DODGX) were almost at very top, despite heavy exposure to financials and getting drawn into value trap with financials such as AIG, and getting hit very severely in last year in stock market.


 

derter1

Junior Member
Oct 18, 2009
2
0
0
just bought nok and ups on friday.any thoughts on either one?

400 nok at 13.48 and 200 ups at 56.89

 

Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
71
Originally posted by: derter1
just bought nok and ups on friday.any thoughts on either one?

400 nok at 13.48 and 200 ups at 56.89

I think NOK is doomed. Do they even have a smart phone?

So... AAPL earnings today. Who is holdings? I have 20 shares or something :p

 

Lamont Burns

Platinum Member
Dec 13, 2002
2,836
0
0
Originally posted by: richardycc
boarded the scambus..I mean rambus this morning...GO RMBS?

Sure, why not.

I've been watching it long for the most part, but over the last 4 months it's become a reliable trade for me with excess cash. Always try to keep a fairly sizeable position in case some great news hits, but it's been fun so far.