***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
How long can these type of suits drag on for? And what % probability do you personally put on it being settled prior to trial?

The AT suit will end by November with a decision by the jury shortly afterwards (days). Of course, guessing the appeals is another thing. I really doubt all companies will go through with this trial though, I really do.

My guessing on % probability of settlements:

Samsung = 75%
Hynix = 50%
Micron = 5%

Interesting....gonna have to roll my July calls next month when September options start to trade.

 

[pravi333]

On TIVO, from WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124406201992382445.html

 

[Demo24]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: DEMO24
So, even though that option has gone up a very large amount it might still be a decent buy? I'm guessing with the court decision very soon, and with a high probability of being in Tivo's favor, that it could very well send it up even more?

The stock still has room to run pending the outcome of its war with Echostar. I wouldn't buy that particular option at this point.

Buy shares or get a cheap, far out-of-the-money call to roll the dice.

BTW, I haven't sold any of my TSRA shares or calls yet. Logic tells me to pull some profit out, but the overall picture I see is TSRA blowing past $30 on its way to $35-$40.

Maybe sell and roll them out further, I gotta think about it...

Gotcha, thanks for the advice!

 

[Azurik]

TIVO might drift a little bit down tomorrow since Echostar was granted a temporary stay. I view this as a buying opportunity.

TIVO needs to file a response by June 10th, and Echostar has a week from that to file a reply brief. I am VERY doubtful that they will be granted a permanent stay after this, the more likely scenario is the court responds quickly and removes the temporary stay and leaves Echostar with 30 days to remove all infringing products and pay penalties (or settle).

 

[richardycc]

I have been into penny stocks lately...got some SPNG.OB, added some more ACTC.PK and MYST.OB...do your own DD, all of these stocks have questionable past or insiders. Actually it's tough to find a true winner among .OB or .PK, but I have been doing well, and making money with them. Spng is interesting, you see their spongetech commercials on TV all the time now, and they even have their banner in some MLB games now, that's why you are starting to see their name now. I got some around 3cents/share, will probably sell 1/2 around 6-7cents and let the rest either goto worthless or let me retire early.

 

[SSSnail]

So C was a bit late on the move, but I'll get my beer one way or another.

AAA ratings on 4B master trust.
Von Moltke moved over from MS
Securitization backed by VISA, Master, and AMEX

It's on the upswing.

Edit: forgot to add Q2 earning call is on 17th, a few days before June 20th options expiry. 😉

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
So C was a bit late on the move, but I'll get my beer one way or another.

AAA ratings on 4B master trust.
Von Moltke moved over from MS
Securitization backed by VISA, Master, and AMEX

It's on the upswing.

Edit: forgot to add Q2 earning call is on 17th, a few days before June 20th options expiry. 😉

Did you read about them asking to be able to issue 60 billion shares? Dilution anyone?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Did you read about them asking to be able to issue 60 billion shares? Dilution anyone?

You can play that a lot of ways. They are asking for the ability to issue UP TO 60 billion shares, but if they issue less than what they are asking for, I think the market will take it as a surprise and run the stock up.

 

[Azurik]

XLE June $52 options up 50% 1 day! If I didn't have conviction it will hit at least $54 I'd sell now.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper

Originally posted by: SSSnail
So C was a bit late on the move, but I'll get my beer one way or another.

AAA ratings on 4B master trust.
Von Moltke moved over from MS
Securitization backed by VISA, Master, and AMEX

It's on the upswing.

Edit: forgot to add Q2 earning call is on 17th, a few days before June 20th options expiry. 😉

Did you read about them asking to be able to issue 60 billion shares? Dilution anyone?

Dilutions is already happening, but if they can raise enough capital, they won't need to issue all of it. With all the positive news and outlook coming, they may just won't. Even fully diluted, they pegged it at $3.25 PPS so not even a big deal.

 

[Slew Foot]

Energy is always a good play for the summer doldrums. Rising gas prices tend to lift the sector while depressing other sectors.

 

[zimu]

Originally posted by: richardycc
I have been into penny stocks lately...got some SPNG.OB, added some more ACTC.PK and MYST.OB...do your own DD, all of these stocks have questionable past or insiders. Actually it's tough to find a true winner among .OB or .PK, but I have been doing well, and making money with them. Spng is interesting, you see their spongetech commercials on TV all the time now, and they even have their banner in some MLB games now, that's why you are starting to see their name now. I got some around 3cents/share, will probably sell 1/2 around 6-7cents and let the rest either goto worthless or let me retire early.

bloody hell you're going ot make a fortune with spng 🙂 i had put it on my watchlist for this morning but ended going with palm, wish i'd have put my money on spng i'd be up 20%+ just today!

oh well!

 

[Cal166]

Originally posted by: zimu

Originally posted by: richardycc
I have been into penny stocks lately...got some SPNG.OB, added some more ACTC.PK and MYST.OB...do your own DD, all of these stocks have questionable past or insiders. Actually it's tough to find a true winner among .OB or .PK, but I have been doing well, and making money with them. Spng is interesting, you see their spongetech commercials on TV all the time now, and they even have their banner in some MLB games now, that's why you are starting to see their name now. I got some around 3cents/share, will probably sell 1/2 around 6-7cents and let the rest either goto worthless or let me retire early.

bloody hell you're going ot make a fortune with spng 🙂 i had put it on my watchlist for this morning but ended going with palm, wish i'd have put my money on spng i'd be up 20%+ just today!

oh well!

Same here, been looking at it since last week when it was at .4cents

 

[SSSnail]

If you guys feel like gambling on pennies and have a few thousands to spare, stick it in ACTC and consider it's lost, for a couple of years (they have something brewing pretty soon, but still have some hurdles to pass).

 

[SandEagle]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If you guys feel like gambling on pennies and have a few thousands to spare, stick it in ACTC and consider it's lost, for a couple of years (they have something brewing pretty soon, but still have some hurdles to pass).

i got in on CTIC, HEB, XOMA, GNTA on the cheap. watching ACUS at the moment.. looks like it has good potential

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: SandEagle

Originally posted by: SSSnail
If you guys feel like gambling on pennies and have a few thousands to spare, stick it in ACTC and consider it's lost, for a couple of years (they have something brewing pretty soon, but still have some hurdles to pass).

i got in on CTIC, HEB, XOMA, GNTA on the cheap. watching ACUS at the moment.. looks like it has good potential

I'm waiting on OPAX to be approved in EMEA, will be a good day for CTIC.

Edit: One thing I learned very early in life is that if you're gonna get into a pyramid scheme, get in VERY early. 😉

 

[SSSnail]

Wow, didn't realize how huge SPNG's upside potential could be, and they've just started. They have a positive revenue stream right now and aren't even popular yet, wait until they go national, then global. Yes it's sponges, but damn they'll sell a lot.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Wow, didn't realize how huge SPNG's upside potential could be, and they've just started. They have a positive revenue stream right now and aren't even popular yet, wait until they go national, then global. Yes it's sponges, but damn they'll sell a lot.

look at MYST financials. PE is like 2x. Fishy balance sheet though.

 

[SSSnail]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: SSSnail
Wow, didn't realize how huge SPNG's upside potential could be, and they've just started. They have a positive revenue stream right now and aren't even popular yet, wait until they go national, then global. Yes it's sponges, but damn they'll sell a lot.

look at MYST financials. PE is like 2x. Fishy balance sheet though.

Chinese OTC + low volume = no touchy.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
If they win, what do you expect the win value to be?

Which potential win? The AT suit? That has damages of up to $11 billion dollars. RMBS entire market cap is just barely over $1 billion. If they win that trial outright... then over $100+. This is an important suit. Put it in this way, if John Danforth never filed this suit for Rambus back in 2004, I wouldn't be an investor right now. This puts settlement pressure on all the companies or risk liabilities of enormous proportions. Realistically, I see some of the MM's settlings and some going through the courts... so I'll peg it around $60.

This is all based on certain scenarios happening. Of course, if they win that and get every MM to sign up, Rambus' potential value is $274. I don't see it going up that high, but valuations would have supported that price (I still remember, Lothar) 😉

Now it's up to the courts to do the right thing. If Intel was successful in adopting Rambus back in 1996 (back when Rambus was only in the Nintendo 64), I don't want to even hazard a guess of where it would be now rather than the image the company has in Silicon Valley.

That's another topic though. G'night folks.

So is it just a waiting game now until the trial?

BTW this site has tons of info.

 

[Slew Foot]

JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING DEFT'S MTN FOR SUMMARY ADJUDICATION/ALT MTN TO DISMISS PLTF'S CLAIMS BASED ON FOREIGN COMMERCE FOR LACK OF SUBJECT MATTER JURISDICTION FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING HYNIX'S MTN FOR SUMMARY ADJUDICATION OF THE INTENTIONAL INTERFERENCE WITH PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE CLAIM FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING KENNETH R O'ROURKE FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING DAVID GARCIA FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING GARY L HALLING; JAMES MCGINNIS AND MONA SOLOUKI FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING GEOFFREY H YOST FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING KENNETH L NISSLY FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING MATTHEW D POWERS FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING WILLIAM PRICE FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING DEFT'S MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT/ADJUDICATION FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,


What does all this mean?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING DEFT'S MTN FOR SUMMARY ADJUDICATION/ALT MTN TO DISMISS PLTF'S CLAIMS BASED ON FOREIGN COMMERCE FOR LACK OF SUBJECT MATTER JURISDICTION FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING HYNIX'S MTN FOR SUMMARY ADJUDICATION OF THE INTENTIONAL INTERFERENCE WITH PROSPECTIVE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE CLAIM FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING KENNETH R O'ROURKE FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING DAVID GARCIA FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING GARY L HALLING; JAMES MCGINNIS AND MONA SOLOUKI FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING GEOFFREY H YOST FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING KENNETH L NISSLY FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING MATTHEW D POWERS FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 POS ON NTC OF ENTRY OF ORDER DENYING MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT BY SERVING WILLIAM PRICE FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,
JUN-04-2009 NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER/NOTICE OF RULING FILED DENYING DEFT'S MTN FOR SUMMARY JUDGMENT/ADJUDICATION FILED BY PLAINTIFF RAMBUS INC.,


What does all this mean?

QUICK DOES SOMEONE HAZ ASURICK'S PHONE #?

where'd you get this?

 

[JS80]

This has to be good. Deny defense motion for summary dismiss plaintiff's claims.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
(bunch of legal documents)

What does all this mean?

QUICK DOES SOMEONE HAZ ASURICK'S PHONE #?

where'd you get this?

All good stuff. During the conference with Judge Kramer, he denied all the MM's motions. They tried to delay the trial, argue the trial should be dismissed based on the Delaware ruling, that it's been too long since the alleged conspiracy acts, etc. etc.

Judge Kramer apparently didn't want to write all these denials so he had Rambus draft up the documents for him to sign, LOL!

BTW Slew Foot, where did you get this? PACER? I didn't know you had an account... or the Rambus company website under investor relations?

 

[Azurik]

Ah. I see it on the Yahoo! RMBS messageboards.