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***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread
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IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
I'll speak of ivnesting, not speculating.
If you sell only when a stock is overvalued, you are selling when there is a 50% premium. You sell and whatever the tax hit is, so be it. If you wait two months, that 50% premium could be a 0% premium and then it doesn't matter.
Now if you are selling just because a stock is up and you have no idea what the underlying company is worth, then you have other problems.
If it is trading at your calculated intrinsic value, why sell? You should have bought a wonderful company to begin with so why sell without doing so at a premium.
And as another point, Warren Buffett himself has said hat taxes should not be a consideration.
So far this year, I have sold no stocks. I have simply watched my portfolio go up about 30% after watching it drop by 50%.. I could cash out some profits but don't care to. I only bought one stock this year. That would be WFC for $14.19. Wi will hold WFC unless it starts trading at a rediculous premium. And that would be something like $70 within the next year. I could care less if I held it 11.5 months or 12.1. Now, 11.9 months ... maybe I'll wait a few days.
I haven't the cash to buy anything now, but if I could have it would have been BNI for under $60, now $70.
I guess I should conclude this. If you held somethi9ng for 11 months and 3 weeks ... maybe waiting a week makes sense. If you have to wait 1 week to get a tax advantage, it might make sense. If you are waiting 3 months it makes absolutely no sense. You are playing with a double edged sword at that point.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
Definitely not a wonderful company. Does not have shareholder friendly management and the management is greedy. Regardless of where it is going, you don't want to be there.
Azurik
Platinum Member
Haha, a beer? 🙂 What about the huge DNDN profits you got by gambling by my side? I think that deserves one beer too. And if TSRA takes off, that's another. I want a case of beer! Sam Summer and we'll call it even 😉
As for TSRA, I was going to straddle play that, but the IV (implied votility) is way too high right now. I think I bought a couple thousand shares at $13 and sold it at $16 last week. Bought the TSRA June $20 calls for $1.00 which is up 35% right now. Decision should be out by 5:30pm EST. After tonight, the IV should plummet, but I think the move up or down will be too huge to matter.
Azurik
Platinum Member
I saw that, but remember, put volume could be downside speculation OR protection. There's a lot of shareholders that probably know of today's event and wanted to buffer their shares.
The ITC staff is very pro-IP, and if they don't overturn the judge then oh well, a few thousand dollars down the drain.
EDIT: TSRA is going absolutely bonkers after-market... market makers have to keep raising the ask since it's being taken out. Nothing official yet, here's hoping news confirm the upside right now and it's not a headfake. I won't mind waking up richer 😀
Azurik
Platinum Member
See ya later, I'm off to some Boston pub to celebrate.
Got a phonecall from Washington D.C. (where the International Trade Commission is at). They just won.
Peaceeeeeeeeeeee!
EDIT: Just because I love you guys, and apparently I've built a fan base here... here's the decision. Enjoy!
http://www.usitc.gov/ext_relat..._Notice05202009sgl.pdf
Guys, this is a HOMERUN!. The ITC is ordering all the companies who uses small-chip scale packaging technology who is not paying Tessera to ceast and desist. Huge companies like Motorola, QUALCOMM, ATI, Freescale, etc. They can appeal, but must pay TSRA 3.5% royalty.
Expect settlements very quickly. There's no way these companies can operate some of their businesses without TSRA's IP.
Got a phonecall from Washington D.C. (where the International Trade Commission is at). They just won.
Peaceeeeeeeeeeee!
EDIT: Just because I love you guys, and apparently I've built a fan base here... here's the decision. Enjoy!
http://www.usitc.gov/ext_relat..._Notice05202009sgl.pdf
Guys, this is a HOMERUN!. The ITC is ordering all the companies who uses small-chip scale packaging technology who is not paying Tessera to ceast and desist. Huge companies like Motorola, QUALCOMM, ATI, Freescale, etc. They can appeal, but must pay TSRA 3.5% royalty.
Expect settlements very quickly. There's no way these companies can operate some of their businesses without TSRA's IP.
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