***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Some interesting things I learned while doing Pubmed searches.

It looks like physicians are highly in favor of Sipuleucel-T(Provenge), as it appears to be effective some of the time for resistant tumors. The FDA was aiming for a 22% reduction and the drug hit 20% late last year, though the company insists that due its late acting course, it should rise to 22% by now. Considering its a two year study with 500 people, youd need to help an additional 10 people in 3-4 months. Its possible though I cant find any literature or documentation about how exactly they are implementing the IMPACT study. The latest publications for the drug were late last year in journals I never heard of, most seem to agree that the FDA did wrong not to pass the drug the first time around, and makes notes of some conflicts of interest at the FDA.

Edit:

The conference call is at 9 am tomorrow premarket, which is a good sign. I signed up to listen in on their webpage.

The bid hoopla back then was one of the FDA people making the no decision was backing a similiar type of drug from another company. DNDN's Provenge has tremendous support from prostrate cancer patients and people in the medical field, and has been proven. It's been hindered by politics and special interests. The 22% needed was a compromise between the company and the FTC to get this ball rolling.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
http://www.reuters.com/article...333940120090413?rpc=44

Looks like DNDN will announce tomorrow. Ill place a stop limit tonight just in case.

this could go either way, bad news, 2$, good news, $12.

Bad news it will go below $2. Good news, a lot higher than $12. There's a ton of voltility predicted on this event with a bunch of people in a tug of war on this stock.

I think I'm going to try to sell my options before the market opens tomorrow. I'll take the profit I own on these now to ride out additional gains with my shares (if it's going up that is).

And Slew Foot, I don't think a stop limit will help you before the market officially opens...

EDIT: Crap, I didn't know they halted the stock after-hours tonight.

Whatever. It goes past $10, my options will be called away and I'll net $650 from that and $5,800 from the 1,000 shares priced at $10 before they're called - which is more than a double for a week's worth of gambling. It free falls, and at least I'm locked in with my options profit and whatever I can sell the stock for.

Assuming it goes up, I will buy back the 1,000 shares that gets called away right when the market opens. Positive results almost promises a multi-day rally. I just won't be able to buy the shares near $10.

Goodluck to everyone who joined me on the gamble. Just don't shoot the messenger if it goes bad, I never told you to buy - I only tell you what's exciting! GOT IT?

 

[imported_Lothar]

Express Scripts bought WellPoint's Pharmacy Benefits division for $4.7 billion.

Great deal for the shareholders of both companies :thumbsup:

 

[cheezy321]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: richardycc

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
http://www.reuters.com/article...333940120090413?rpc=44

Looks like DNDN will announce tomorrow. Ill place a stop limit tonight just in case.

this could go either way, bad news, 2$, good news, $12.

Bad news it will go below $2. Good news, a lot higher than $12. There's a ton of voltility predicted on this event with a bunch of people in a tug of war on this stock.

I think I'm going to try to sell my options before the market opens tomorrow. I'll take the profit I own on these now to ride out additional gains with my shares (if it's going up that is).

And Slew Foot, I don't think a stop limit will help you before the market officially opens...

EDIT: Crap, I didn't know they halted the stock after-hours tonight.

Whatever. It goes past $10, my options will be called away and I'll net $650 from that and $5,800 from the 1,000 shares priced at $10 before they're called - which is more than a double for a week's worth of gambling. It free falls, and at least I'm locked in with my options profit and whatever I can sell the stock for.

Assuming it goes up, I will buy back the 1,000 shares that gets called away right when the market opens. Positive results almost promises a multi-day rally. I just won't be able to buy the shares near $10.

Goodluck to everyone who joined me on the gamble. Just don't shoot the messenger if it goes bad, I never told you to buy - I only tell you what's exciting! GOT IT?

I got out @ 7.45 today for a tidy 35% profit. I might jump in again tomorrow morning if its good news. Heres to hoping!

 

[GTKeeper]

Citigroup is going higher again in pre-market. Crazy.

Here is a funny, WFC posts a MASSIVE profit, and yet might need 50 billion in new capital? Ha!

 

[Slew Foot]

PROVENGE Significantly Prolongs Survival in Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer in Pivotal Phase 3 IMPACT Study

? Study Meets Primary Endpoint Showing Statistically Significant Improvement in Overall Survival ?

? First Active Immunotherapy for Cancer to Prolong Survival ?
? Full Data to be Presented at Plenary Session at Upcoming AUA Annual Meeting ?
? Company to Host a Conference Call Today at 9:00 AM ET ?

SEATTLE, April 14, 2009 - Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN) announced today that the pivotal Phase 3 IMPACT study of PROVENGE® (sipuleucel-T) in men with advanced prostate cancer met its primary endpoint of improving overall survival compared to a placebo control. The magnitude of the survival difference observed in the intent to treat population resulted in the study successfully achieving the pre-specified level of statistical significance defined by the study's design. The safety profile of PROVENGE appeared to be consistent with prior trials.

The 512-patient, multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled IMPACT (IMmunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment) study enrolled men with metastatic androgen-independent prostate cancer was conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment agreement with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Slew Foot]

HOLY SHIT!!!!!

24.40 Up 17.10 (234.25%) 9:04

 

[Slew Foot]

That was the easiest 60K i ever made

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
HOLY SHIT!!!!!

24.40 Up 17.10 (234.25%) 9:04

Yep. There was just no way it would have stopped in the low teens.

There was a LOT of DNDN investors who waited years for this. With us getting in 2 weeks ago, this is currently a 5x bagger for a very short-term binary play. You guys can all thank me later... with champagne and blow

EDIT: I just realized I had 1,050 shares in DNDN, lol. So my 10 sold call options will obviously be exercised by someone, capping them at $10 gains, with my option profits, and a whole BIG HONKING 50 shares to ride this gravy train.

Personally, if I were new to DNDN, I'd let it open and settle first and hop on for a momo run. With how small of a market cap DNDN has, and the revenue this drug will bring in, you could even ride out your existing shares if you have a long-term view.

 

[Gunslinger08]

Damn. I wanted to get in this morning. Guess that's not going to be an option.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Citigroup is going higher again in pre-market. Crazy.

Here is a funny, WFC posts a MASSIVE profit, and yet might need 50 billion in new capital? Ha!

Everybody is raising money to get rid of TARP money ASAP.

The top 10 financial firms signed on with the notion that it was their patriotic duty to do so, not because they needed the money. The only ones that needed the money were C and MS but Henry Paulson wanted everyone to signup so the bad banks wouldn't be exposed.

Unfortunately the Obama administration is bringing a lot of politics to the situation regarding executive compensation, among many other things which now has all those firms running back to the woods.

Even Goldman Sachs is raising money to get rid of TARP.
If the CFO of WFC can say accepting TARP money is the most idiotic decision he has ever made in his career, I believe him.

 

[Slew Foot]

Im selling 80% of my stake at the bell for nice profit. I might let the rest ride for abit. I expect some near term drop, but maybe long term this could run.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Im selling 80% of my stake at the bell for nice profit. I might let the rest ride for abit. I expect some near term drop, but maybe long term this could run.

I did the opposite, I bought more at the opening bell at $18.50 since my other shares will be called away. It went down from the $20's to the high teens too quick.

Whoever bought my calls at .65 is smiling big right now. That call option is going to go bonkers.

10 CALL (UKO) DENDREON CORP APR 10 = 1,630.51% :music:

 

[GTKeeper]

Azurik,

Rambus is ramping on high volume today, any idea why? I didn't see any news about it

 

[Cal166]

Congrats guys on DNDN, I had no balls to buy into this stock after it dropped early this year.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Azurik,

Rambus is ramping on high volume today, any idea why? I didn't see any news about it

Rambus requested a case management conference (CMC) with Judge Whyte regarding the Samsung trial. The judge wrote an order last night sayign that he was working the Samsung issue, and the some of the findings of facts will be out later this month. He wasn't delaying it and said the CMC isn't necessary unless Rambus needs further information.

The volume, while higher than these past few weeks, is still too small to say much. I'll take the gains since Rambus by far is my biggest stock holding, but until there's confirmation, just enjoy the gains.

I think investors (including myself) are so used to Rambus being so chock full of events, this past month seems a lot slower than it really is. Maybe that's why I'm playing other stocks waiting for more stuff to come out. We have the Phase I trial with Judge Kramer in a couple weeks, that will be the main driver this month... unless we have a significant partnership agreement or mobile memory news.

EDIT: Confirmed, it's because the judge clarified he's going to rule on Samsung contract issues, which is big, by April 24th. Fasten your seatbelts.

 

[Slew Foot]

Buy the rumor sell the news. Now begins the wait of getting the drug to market and making a profit. It'll likely trade in a narrow range for a while with a downward bias until a profit is reached. Ill put my profits into other speculative ventures

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Buy the rumor sell the news. Now begins the wait of getting the drug to market and making a profit. It'll likely trade in a narrow range for a while with a downward bias until a profit is reached. Ill put my profits into other speculative ventures

That's what you said about DNDN last week. Now, if the stock didn't get halted last night, we wouldn't be sitting here with pretty gains, would we?

But you are right it will eventually drift after the rally is over... until the FDA officially approves it... then people will talk about future profits this company will receive. I intend to sell after the run-up. Buy back in when it drifts waiting for the FDA approval. There's also the conference they are slated to speak at.

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Azurik
DNDN's runup is just crazy... up a buck this morning and now it's up almost 100% in two trading days. No complaints, but I just sold Apr $10 calls for $0.65 each for additional profit. Dendreon should report results at the end of April, so I'm hoping the stock will keep running up - just not past $10 until the calls I am selling expires on April 18th

Not really an option man, but selling covered calls is as safe as you can get. Of course, if the stock runs up or they announce positive results beforehand, I'll kick myself for being near-term greedy.

Buy the runor sell on the news, it might be better to sell this one before the announcement, i think thatll be my plan.

This was no rumor/news thing either IMHO, it was a binary decision that pretty much determine if this company would go bankrupt or sell the first FDA-approved immunotherapy drug.

 

[ponyo]

Congrats on DNDN. Yesterday a guy was saying to buy April 15 calls for 12 cents as a extremely cheap way to jam the shorts into expiration and today's results. I should've paid attention as that option is now trading at $7.10 for 4,076% gain. 40x bagger in a day is a once in a lifetime dream. Oh well.

I am involved in Citi June 5 calls. Bought some yesterday morning at 19 cents after thinking about it over the weekend after reading Azurik's post. There's funky massive convert-arb squeeze happening at Citi right now as the buy preferred/short common convert-arb trade to capture the spread is blowing up on someone's face. They are doing a classic upside squeeze on the hedgefunds that took the arb trade as easy no brainer money. Sort of like what happened with Volkswagon last year.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Congrats on DNDN. Yesterday a guy was saying to buy April 15 calls for 12 cents as a extremely cheap way to jam the shorts into expiration and today's results. I should've paid attention as that option is now trading at $7.10 for 4,076% gain. 40x bagger in a day is a once in a lifetime dream. Oh well.

I am involved in Citi June 5 calls. Bought some yesterday morning at 19 cents after thinking about it over the weekend after reading Azurik's post. There's funky massive convert-arb squeeze happening at Citi right now as the buy preferred/short common convert-arb trade to capture the spread is blowing up on someone's face. They are doing a classic upside squeeze on the hedgefunds that took the arb trade as easy no brainer money. Sort of like what happened with Volkswagon last year.

Thanks Naustica. I saw you bought the Citi June 5 options with me from the other Citi thread around here. It's pretty damn close to $5 right now with today's continuation of a run-up... lets hope that Friday spells good news on the earnings front. I'll take any small positive surprise.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Congrats on DNDN. Yesterday a guy was saying to buy April 15 calls for 12 cents as a extremely cheap way to jam the shorts into expiration and today's results. I should've paid attention as that option is now trading at $7.10 for 4,076% gain. 40x bagger in a day is a once in a lifetime dream. Oh well.

I am involved in Citi June 5 calls. Bought some yesterday morning at 19 cents after thinking about it over the weekend after reading Azurik's post. There's funky massive convert-arb squeeze happening at Citi right now as the buy preferred/short common convert-arb trade to capture the spread is blowing up on someone's face. They are doing a classic upside squeeze on the hedgefunds that took the arb trade as easy no brainer money. Sort of like what happened with Volkswagon last year.

Thanks Naustica. I saw you bought the Citi June 5 options with me from the other Citi thread around here. It's pretty damn close to $5 right now with today's continuation of a run-up... lets hope that Friday spells good news on the earnings front. I'll take any small positive surprise.

No, thank you. I wasn't even thinking about the Citi option play until you mentioned it. I looked at it over the weekend and thought the odds were favorable. Currently up 305% on the options. I don't plan on sticking around to exercise the options. Common equity holders will be standing at the very back of the line with the govt in the front.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Congrats on DNDN. Yesterday a guy was saying to buy April 15 calls for 12 cents as a extremely cheap way to jam the shorts into expiration and today's results. I should've paid attention as that option is now trading at $7.10 for 4,076% gain. 40x bagger in a day is a once in a lifetime dream. Oh well.

I am involved in Citi June 5 calls. Bought some yesterday morning at 19 cents after thinking about it over the weekend after reading Azurik's post. There's funky massive convert-arb squeeze happening at Citi right now as the buy preferred/short common convert-arb trade to capture the spread is blowing up on someone's face. They are doing a classic upside squeeze on the hedgefunds that took the arb trade as easy no brainer money. Sort of like what happened with Volkswagon last year.

Thanks Naustica. I saw you bought the Citi June 5 options with me from the other Citi thread around here. It's pretty damn close to $5 right now with today's continuation of a run-up... lets hope that Friday spells good news on the earnings front. I'll take any small positive surprise.

No, thank you. I wasn't even thinking about the Citi option play until you mentioned it. I looked at it over the weekend and thought the odds were favorable. Currently up 305% on the options. I don't plan on sticking around to exercise the options. Common equity holders will be standing at the very back of the line with the govt in the front.

I don't plan on exercising them either - in fact, I rarely exercise my call options. I just sell them for the gains unless I have a pretty big conviction that the stock will run up further. Citi and financials in general are at a period where it's too cloudy to see clearly either way and I wouldn't be comfortable holding it over the summer/fall.

EDIT: My extra shares in DNDN got stopped out at $18... opportunity to buy lower a little later. I guess I'll ride out the rest of my 50 shares

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Azurik,

Rambus is ramping on high volume today, any idea why? I didn't see any news about it

Rambus requested a case management conference (CMC) with Judge Whyte regarding the Samsung trial. The judge wrote an order last night sayign that he was working the Samsung issue, and the some of the findings of facts will be out later this month. He wasn't delaying it and said the CMC isn't necessary unless Rambus needs further information.

The volume, while higher than these past few weeks, is still too small to say much. I'll take the gains since Rambus by far is my biggest stock holding, but until there's confirmation, just enjoy the gains.

I think investors (including myself) are so used to Rambus being so chock full of events, this past month seems a lot slower than it really is. Maybe that's why I'm playing other stocks waiting for more stuff to come out. We have the Phase I trial with Judge Kramer in a couple weeks, that will be the main driver this month... unless we have a significant partnership agreement or mobile memory news.

EDIT: Confirmed, it's because the judge clarified he's going to rule on Samsung contract issues, which is big, by April 24th. Fasten your seatbelts.

Judge Whyte has been historically favorable to RMBS, lets hope this is good.

In hindsight I should have gone with Calls instead of straight stock with DNDN. With an all or nothing event you might as well maximize your upside potential, youre down to zero either way if it fails. Ill take the 5-->20 run though in a week anytime.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Azurik,

Rambus is ramping on high volume today, any idea why? I didn't see any news about it

Rambus requested a case management conference (CMC) with Judge Whyte regarding the Samsung trial. The judge wrote an order last night sayign that he was working the Samsung issue, and the some of the findings of facts will be out later this month. He wasn't delaying it and said the CMC isn't necessary unless Rambus needs further information.

The volume, while higher than these past few weeks, is still too small to say much. I'll take the gains since Rambus by far is my biggest stock holding, but until there's confirmation, just enjoy the gains.

I think investors (including myself) are so used to Rambus being so chock full of events, this past month seems a lot slower than it really is. Maybe that's why I'm playing other stocks waiting for more stuff to come out. We have the Phase I trial with Judge Kramer in a couple weeks, that will be the main driver this month... unless we have a significant partnership agreement or mobile memory news.

EDIT: Confirmed, it's because the judge clarified he's going to rule on Samsung contract issues, which is big, by April 24th. Fasten your seatbelts.

Judge Whyte has been historically favorable to RMBS, lets hope this is good.

In hindsight I should have gone with Calls instead of straight stock with DNDN. With an all or nothing event you might as well maximize your upside potential, youre down to zero either way if it fails. Ill take the 5-->20 run though in a week anytime.

I expect him to rule in favor of Samsung for the last few months of the then existing contract, in other words, Samsung owes lower rates than what Rambus wants. But post-2005, he will rule for Rambus that Samsung did not have a valid contract and the old rates do not apply ongoing. This would be big.

Judge Whyte has never ruled a case against Rambus. My only problem with him (and many of RMBS' hardcore followers/investors) is that he's so freakin' slow in handing out rulings. He is way too meticulous, and although his rulings are virtually flawless, it just takes too much time.

 

[thepd7]

Hey Azurik do you have a recommended book or website to read up on options, shorting, etc?

I know very little and although the stock market has been very good to me in limited use recently (35% over the past month) I would really like to learn more.

And congrats to all of you on DNDN, you are batting pretty nicely recently!