***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[zimu]

nice to see rmbs finally getting a kick start!

made a nice quick buck with C - bought yesterday at 2.4, sold today at 3.2. Delightful! I'm thinking it'll have another serious drop down to the mid 2s in the next week, where i'll soak up some more stock and hold for the long run.

 

[Azurik]

breakkkkkkkout

 

[JS80]

fuck it. i'm chasing FAZ. i'll let you guys know if i lost my shirt.

 

[GML3G0]

Originally posted by: JS80
fuck it. i'm chasing FAZ. i'll let you guys know if i lost my shirt.

I bought April 17.5 put and 55 call on FAZ for about $1.50 and $2.50 respectively. Don't know which way it's going. This may have been and probably is an extremely stupid trade on my part since they're both out of the money, but if it swings as wildly either way as I hope, I may end up making quite a bit.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: GML3G0

Originally posted by: JS80
fuck it. i'm chasing FAZ. i'll let you guys know if i lost my shirt.

I bought April 17.5 put and 55 call on FAZ for about $1.50 and $2.50 respectively. Don't know which way it's going. This may have been and probably is an extremely stupid trade on my part since they're both out of the money, but if it swings as wildly either way as I hope, I may end up making quite a bit.

i bot april 30 calls for 6.5

 

[hiromizu]

I'm hoping it all tanks tomorrow.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: GML3G0

Originally posted by: JS80
fuck it. i'm chasing FAZ. i'll let you guys know if i lost my shirt.

I bought April 17.5 put and 55 call on FAZ for about $1.50 and $2.50 respectively. Don't know which way it's going. This may have been and probably is an extremely stupid trade on my part since they're both out of the money, but if it swings as wildly either way as I hope, I may end up making quite a bit.

i bot april 30 calls for 6.5

i avged down to 6.1 hoping for market to realize the banks are insolvent in the next 4 weeks.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Naustica,

If the local McDonalds were up to sale, would you look at the past 10 sales of McDonalds and make some sort of chart and determine that a handle formed or some other BS TA measure occurred? Or would you look at the fact that the one you are considering the purchase of has $10K in free cash flow each month and base your offer to buy on that?

Answer wisely, because a stupid answer will result in my offer to sell you a bridge. Hell, you must be trying to buy property in California for 10 cents already!

What was the support level?

What is the resistance?

Dead Cat bounce baby! Just buy for less in 1 more month! It's a slam dunk

You know, what's funny, is that if his strategies were so successful, wouldn't he be a succeeding trader, not a failed one?

You'd think that he would just shut up by now. But then again, he's our version of Jim Cramer, who is finance's version of Jerry Springer.

NAUSTICA NAUSTICA NAUSTICA!

You don't last 5 years trading your own money for a living with only sheer luck. Not that I expect you to understand since you don't have the net worth or the skill to last even a month.

I'll shut up and leave the thread now since the investing guru legendkiller has come to share his wisdom.

 

[ultimatebob]

Investing in SIRI when it was 6 cents a share was a good idea, anyway... Now it's 37 cents a share

 

[Azurik]

Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

Wrong. Financials go to zero starting today SPX goes to 550.

 

[Slew Foot]

I think the government realizes that falling housing prices combined with the inability to pay off mortgages are the source of todays economic woes. To combat this they will keep interest rates low for a substantial amount of time in order to get people to refi into cheaper loans. Then after a year or so, open the floodgates and try to hyperinflate away everyones debt. How to play this? Well, the short term is difficult since there's too much randomness involved. In the medium term, banks and financial may be a good play as they report rising volumes of refis, etc.. In the longer term, gold and commodities would like be a good hedge against inflation (as well as picking up a lot of debt that you can pay off with TP later). I cant really find a foreign currency I like as most other countries have economic problems similar to ours. Maybe Brazil as they produce most of their own energy?

My current long term portfolio is largely the same as its always been JNJ, KFT, T, PG, GLD, FSENX. I dumped GE for more JNJ KFT.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

Wrong. Financials go to zero starting today SPX goes to 550.

I originally thought the same thing after I called S&P going to 750, but what happened this week changed a lot of things in the short-term. I don't think we'll see 550 before rising more first. Today is just a consolidation from the 14% run up we saw in stocks. I would be surprised if there's an afternoon reversal either.

The bear was led by financials.
This rally was initiated by financials.

The financial chart broke key resistance on huge volume - it usually means we're going much higher. We did not have one real multiple months rally since the beginning of October 2007, just 3, 4 or 5 weeks.

Financials needed a sustained rally, and this one is for real I think. Too many people were expecting one last leg down (including me). They will buy quick on any retracement.

No S&P 550 before S&P 800's.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

Wrong. Financials go to zero starting today SPX goes to 550.

I originally thought the same thing after I called S&P going to 750, but what happened this week changed a lot of things in the short-term. I don't think we'll see 550 before rising more first. Today is just a consolidation from the 14% run up we saw in stocks. I would be surprised if there's an afternoon reversal either.

The bear was led by financials.
This rally was initiated by financials.

The financial chart broke key resistance on huge volume - it usually means we're going much higher. We did not have one real multiple months rally since the beginning of October 2007, just 3, 4 or 5 weeks.

Financials needed a sustained rally, and this one is for real I think. Too many people were expecting one last leg down (including me). They will buy quick on any retracement.

No S&P 550 before S&P 800's.

I will give you that if there is consolidation (i.e. no sell off) in the next two weeks we will break out but I think 800 was the resistance top and I expect to see massive selloff after investors realize the $300 billion gimmick won't work.

And I really do believe most of the financials are insolvent. Have you read the stories on credit card companies slashing limits? It's a forward looking move they are signaling that they are expecting huge defaults and this is their way to limit their loss. Not to mention commercial RE timebomb.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

Wrong. Financials go to zero starting today SPX goes to 550.

I originally thought the same thing after I called S&P going to 750, but what happened this week changed a lot of things in the short-term. I don't think we'll see 550 before rising more first. Today is just a consolidation from the 14% run up we saw in stocks. I would be surprised if there's an afternoon reversal either.

The bear was led by financials.
This rally was initiated by financials.

The financial chart broke key resistance on huge volume - it usually means we're going much higher. We did not have one real multiple months rally since the beginning of October 2007, just 3, 4 or 5 weeks.

Financials needed a sustained rally, and this one is for real I think. Too many people were expecting one last leg down (including me). They will buy quick on any retracement.

No S&P 550 before S&P 800's.

I will give you that if there is consolidation (i.e. no sell off) in the next two weeks we will break out but I think 800 was the resistance top and I expect to see massive selloff after investors realize the $300 billion gimmick won't work.

And I really do believe most of the financials are insolvent. Have you read the stories on credit card companies slashing limits? It's a forward looking move they are signaling that they are expecting huge defaults and this is their way to limit their loss. Not to mention commercial RE timebomb.

I don't disagree with you that a lot of banks are in trouble. I personally think Citi is close to worthless as far as being a common shareholder goes, but the charts are telling us they're going to keep rising. Even S&P at 900-1,000 can be argued on a technical basis before a break down.

 

[LordSnailz]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik
Well, these past couple weeks have thrown a bone at the Elliot Wave theory - looks like it could have been reset. I think we may have a huge, legit bear market rally going on that will last for a while - a few months at least, followed by a crash. But in the meantime... think S&P 800-805 is last resistance.

Financials will do great. I'm still negative on them as a group, I've stated in late '07/early '08 on here that Citi was a POS stock since it was $35... but I'm playing the charts here. The charts are saying:

Citi will go up to $7-$8 before it goes crashes again.
HIG will go to $20.
JPM will go to $40.
XLF will go to $13.
S&P will go to 1,000.

Then we all crash down.

Wrong. Financials go to zero starting today SPX goes to 550.

I originally thought the same thing after I called S&P going to 750, but what happened this week changed a lot of things in the short-term. I don't think we'll see 550 before rising more first. Today is just a consolidation from the 14% run up we saw in stocks. I would be surprised if there's an afternoon reversal either.

The bear was led by financials.
This rally was initiated by financials.

The financial chart broke key resistance on huge volume - it usually means we're going much higher. We did not have one real multiple months rally since the beginning of October 2007, just 3, 4 or 5 weeks.

Financials needed a sustained rally, and this one is for real I think. Too many people were expecting one last leg down (including me). They will buy quick on any retracement.

No S&P 550 before S&P 800's.

I will give you that if there is consolidation (i.e. no sell off) in the next two weeks we will break out but I think 800 was the resistance top and I expect to see massive selloff after investors realize the $300 billion gimmick won't work.

And I really do believe most of the financials are insolvent. Have you read the stories on credit card companies slashing limits? It's a forward looking move they are signaling that they are expecting huge defaults and this is their way to limit their loss. Not to mention commercial RE timebomb.

I don't disagree with you that a lot of banks are in trouble. I personally think Citi is close to worthless as far as being a common shareholder goes, but the charts are telling us they're going to keep rising. Even S&P at 900-1,000 can be argued on a technical basis before a break down.

Is there anything fundamentally different with BAC and the other financials like C or is BAC going to crash once this sustain rally drops?

 

[JS80]

On citi today:

Shares of Citigroup Inc. reversed course dramatically Thursday afternoon, falling 12% after news that the firm issued $3 billion in bonds backed by credit-card receivables and eligible for government financing.

After CC receivables defaults start to increase i am assuming there is a debt covenant and citi will get fuxored.

 

[JS80]

Moody's cuts Prudential to two notches above junk

Moody's lowered Prudential's senior debt rating by two notches to "Baa2" from "A3," and the insurance financial strength rating of its Prudential Insurance Co of America unit by two notches to "A2" from "Aa3." The outlook is "negative," meaning another cut is possible within two years.

 

[Azurik]

Candlesticks...
There are option manpulations today, and some profit taking (low volume) as well to get it close below 10. The 250K shares in 1/2 hours of trading after the market open today is an obvious action for some one trying to push it below 10 (target). They did it and they got it (current pps 9.88). It probably will lose 9.99(?).

Based on candlestick charts, RMBS is still on the uptrend mode - as long as it does not drop below the Wednesday's lower end of the white candlestick line which is about 9.59 (opening price for 3/18/09). It is still so far bullish overall. The uptrend is still intact. Just my quick observation.

No guarantee, of course. JMHO.

Good day, and have a nice weekend - since the rest of the day is going to be boring.

 

[JS80]

my FAZ bet paying off...off to 100.

 

[MrMatt]

WAMUQ may be in for a big run tomorrow...

 

[zimu]

mrmatt: why do you think so? cause of them suing fdic?

 

[MrMatt]

Originally posted by: zimu
mrmatt: why do you think so? cause of them suing fdic?

yup, among other things.

WAMKQ was up 80% at one point; WAMUQ was/is up about 50%

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: zimu
mrmatt: why do you think so? cause of them suing fdic?

Zimu,

You have to put finance.yahoo.com and finance.google.com as your favorites. They will tell you everything you need to know. The futures were up big last night with the potential $1 TRILLION program to buy toxic assets. The markets are up another 4%.

 

[her209]

FAZ is taking a beating today. I'm glad I got in and out on Friday.