***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Special K]

Originally posted by: ducci
Does no one else find this market to be completely batshit crazy?

On top of that, the media is so insanely fickle that it just mimics the craziness. "Economy in a downward spiral - the worst yet to come!" "The bulls are back, as investors bet the worst of the credit crisis is over!" "Depression-like economy leaves investors running scared!"

It's just ridiculous. It's complete groupthink, only the majority seem to be manic-depressive nutjobs.

LOL yup, the bulls were certainly back today

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: masterxfob
i have a few grand to play with and thought i might try my hand at some stocks. short/long/penny, doesn't really matter. any suggestions?

BNI and JNJ, WFC, USB. That is alll you need to know

Better yet, put a limit order in for a share of Berkshire Hathaway for under $3800. heck, if you can get that for under $4000 and hold it for 10 years you will not be upset. Buying Berkshire will indirectly give you ownership of the previously mentioned stocks and one of the best (if not THE best) investors of the past 100 years will manage your money for you.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: ivan2
thinking about AA at 10-11ish, what you guys think?

In a recession commodity prices can drop and in doing so earnings will get destroyed. You are warned.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Added GE even though it's been trading like a dog.

VERY WISE!

Originally posted by: sohcrates
looks like today and yesterday could almost wipe out all of monday's gains. hooray!

With all the gloom and doom, banks like WFC are up 20%+ since the tanking last Thursday/Friday.

 

[ponyo]

We're getting the retest sooner than I thought we would. But that's the market and you can only go with the flow. The lows holding and the double bottom would embolden the bulls and the technical crowd. But if it doesn't, it will simply crush the bulls and another crash likely. Expiration is Friday so lot of things can happen. It might be asking too much for Ben and Hank to pull another trick in front of expiration but they've shown that they do like to play the expiration game.

I've been selectively adding back exposure and it feels wrong like last time. But it's never easy buying while the tape is selling off and it's never easy selling while the tape is going up. People seem to be selling lower and buying higher.

 

[abovewood]

With the little money I have left in my account, I bought GE @ 19.10 and JBX @ 16.59.
I am not asking for much, will sell if they go up $1 each share.

 

[her209]

RAWR!

 

[SpanishFry]

so - is tomorrow supposed to resemble today at all? I'll just load up on a short.

 

[masterxfob]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: masterxfob
i have a few grand to play with and thought i might try my hand at some stocks. short/long/penny, doesn't really matter. any suggestions?

BNI and JNJ, WFC, USB. That is alll you need to know

Better yet, put a limit order in for a share of Berkshire Hathaway for under $3800. heck, if you can get that for under $4000 and hold it for 10 years you will not be upset. Buying Berkshire will indirectly give you ownership of the previously mentioned stocks and one of the best (if not THE best) investors of the past 100 years will manage your money for you.

i ended up buying google, nike, and jp morgan. berkshire sounds good, but thinking maybe i should hold out until it comes down to around $3500.

 

[aldamon]

Another crazy day.

 

[goog40]

AMD results were much better than expected, and Google beat estimates when most were predicting them to falter. Maybe this will give the market a little bit of momentum.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Naustica
We're getting the retest sooner than I thought we would. But that's the market and you can only go with the flow. The lows holding and the double bottom would embolden the bulls and the technical crowd. But if it doesn't, it will simply crush the bulls and another crash likely. Expiration is Friday so lot of things can happen. It might be asking too much for Ben and Hank to pull another trick in front of expiration but they've shown that they do like to play the expiration game.

I've been selectively adding back exposure and it feels wrong like last time. But it's never easy buying while the tape is selling off and it's never easy selling while the tape is going up. People seem to be selling lower and buying higher.

We held the low and got the higher low. So far it's turning out to be textbook double bottom. I have to admit it was little scary not knowing if we would hold or not. All these things are positive but one thing bothers me about this. It's too textbook and too perfect. People know you rarely get the V bottom and the double bottom is more bullish and sustainable. Hank Paulson of course knows this as Wall St man. I've sneaky feeling that we were saved last Friday by the Fed coming in directly to the market and buying and the same thing occurred today. They wanted to shape the tape to make it appear like it's the bottom. That's why we have this textbook bottom chart. No proof and just my hunch.

 

[SpanishFry]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Naustica
We're getting the retest sooner than I thought we would. But that's the market and you can only go with the flow. The lows holding and the double bottom would embolden the bulls and the technical crowd. But if it doesn't, it will simply crush the bulls and another crash likely. Expiration is Friday so lot of things can happen. It might be asking too much for Ben and Hank to pull another trick in front of expiration but they've shown that they do like to play the expiration game.

I've been selectively adding back exposure and it feels wrong like last time. But it's never easy buying while the tape is selling off and it's never easy selling while the tape is going up. People seem to be selling lower and buying higher.

We held the low and got the higher low. So far it's turning out to be textbook double bottom. I have to admit it was little scary not knowing if we would hold or not. All these things are positive but one thing bothers me about this. It's too textbook and too perfect. People know you rarely get the V bottom and the double bottom is more bullish and sustainable. Hank Paulson of course knows this as Wall St man. I've sneaky feeling that we were saved last Friday by the Fed coming in directly to the market and buying and the same thing occurred today. They wanted to shape the tape to make it appear like it's the bottom. That's why we have this textbook bottom chart. No proof and just my hunch.

so in this textbook scenario - what's the play?

 

[hiromizu]

Originally posted by: SpanishFry

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Naustica
We're getting the retest sooner than I thought we would. But that's the market and you can only go with the flow. The lows holding and the double bottom would embolden the bulls and the technical crowd. But if it doesn't, it will simply crush the bulls and another crash likely. Expiration is Friday so lot of things can happen. It might be asking too much for Ben and Hank to pull another trick in front of expiration but they've shown that they do like to play the expiration game.

I've been selectively adding back exposure and it feels wrong like last time. But it's never easy buying while the tape is selling off and it's never easy selling while the tape is going up. People seem to be selling lower and buying higher.

We held the low and got the higher low. So far it's turning out to be textbook double bottom. I have to admit it was little scary not knowing if we would hold or not. All these things are positive but one thing bothers me about this. It's too textbook and too perfect. People know you rarely get the V bottom and the double bottom is more bullish and sustainable. Hank Paulson of course knows this as Wall St man. I've sneaky feeling that we were saved last Friday by the Fed coming in directly to the market and buying and the same thing occurred today. They wanted to shape the tape to make it appear like it's the bottom. That's why we have this textbook bottom chart. No proof and just my hunch.

so in this textbook scenario - what's the play?

Short even harder.

 

[alphatarget1]

Tempted to pick up some more GE, what do y'all think? cost avg 26 dollars.

 

[SandEagle]

EMC is looking like a good buy too. It's below $10

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

IR is much lower than Warren Buffetts entry point just 6 months ago. Buy a 40 cent dollar? Do research on it. Same goes for BNI and JNJ. Worth a look if you understand value!

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
IR is much lower than Warren Buffetts entry point just 6 months ago. Buy a 40 cent dollar? Do research on it. Same goes for BNI and JNJ. Worth a look if you understand value!

Buffett already owns large chunk of BNI and he recently sold millions in puts on BNI during this volatile time. If that doesn't tell you how bullish he is on BNI, I don't know what will. He's collecting fat premium by selling puts on BNI and has a chance to buy the stock he likes at lower price. It's a win-win for him. I thought about selling puts on BNI as well. Fat juicy premium sure was tempting. Too bad at the time I was already all in and didn't have the funds to buy the stock in case it was put on me.

 

[ponyo]

Today's opinion by Mr. Warren Buffett

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
IR is much lower than Warren Buffetts entry point just 6 months ago. Buy a 40 cent dollar? Do research on it. Same goes for BNI and JNJ. Worth a look if you understand value!

Well it's not value if you can get something for lower price.

Yes the stock market has been hit bad by the banking/credit crisis and there are values out ther, but so far the general economy has held up okay. However, the economy indicators has been pretty bad lately, and all indicators is pointing to a recessions. Companies are laying off people and cutting back on all capital spending. This recession isn't likely to recover quickly just because there are so many negative factors in the economy right now.

So with the looming prolonged recession, the stock market is more likely to get drag down further, and value investor maybe able to get even better value by being patient and look for signs of fundamental economy recovery.

 

[rise]

gonna be another down day tomorrow

 

[LordSnailz]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Today's opinion by Mr. Warren Buffett

cool, thanks for the link!

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: rise
gonna be another down day tomorrow

I disagree but that's what makes a market. I think we open down but rally to finish green. I like the double bottom setup and think it holds. Hedge funds are definitely liquidating and that's adding huge to the sell pressure but eventually that'll stop and we'll see major rallies in names they've been liquidating. They've been throwing out babies with the bath water with their forced sale.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: rise
gonna be another down day tomorrow

I disagree but that's what makes a market. I think we open down but rally to finish green. I like the double bottom setup and think it holds. Hedge funds are definitely liquidating and that's adding huge to the sell pressure but eventually that'll stop and we'll see major rallies in names they've been liquidating. They've been throwing out babies with the bath water with their forced sale.

I like your optimism and I would love to see the economy and the stock market do well. But I just don't see that in the near future. I am a consultant working in the field. Companies these days are just scared to death about spending any money, and we are starting to see layoffs, even from some healthy companies. The overall feeling is we are going into a recession and this won't be a quick recession like the 2002 one. The government don't have the ability to lower interest rate much more and the credit market/money supply is dead.

I just don't see an extended rally in the near future, may be here and there from good news once a while, but in general, there will be downward pressure because of the recession and cautious/bad earning reports.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: rise
gonna be another down day tomorrow

I disagree but that's what makes a market. I think we open down but rally to finish green. I like the double bottom setup and think it holds. Hedge funds are definitely liquidating and that's adding huge to the sell pressure but eventually that'll stop and we'll see major rallies in names they've been liquidating. They've been throwing out babies with the bath water with their forced sale.

I like your optimism and I would love to see the economy and the stock market do well. But I just don't see that in the near future. I am a consultant working in the field. Companies these days are just scared to death about spending any money, and we are starting to see layoffs, even from some healthy companies. The overall feeling is we are going into a recession and this won't be a quick recession like the 2002 one. The government don't have the ability to lower interest rate much more and the credit market/money supply is dead.

I just don't see an extended rally in the near future, may be here and there from good news once a while, but in general, there will be downward pressure because of the recession and cautious/bad earning reports.

I'm both trader and investor. As a trader, I'm trying to capture the next move or series of moves. As an investor, I'm trying to see the ultimate destination. I know the economy is bad and is only going to get worse. I honestly think the stock market is going to go lower in the future. Maybe much lower. But I think that low is coming next year. I think we've put in our low for this year. We'll know in few weeks if this was the low looking back. My money is on the double bottom holding. I'm putting my money where my mouth is. The reason I'm bullish short term.

1. double bottom formation on the chart. As long as we move up from here, more people will get on board and that will continue the climb.
2. I believe hedge fund forced liquidation is closer to an end than beginning. When this massive selling pressure is lifted, you're going to see bounce back in names that was forced sold.
3. Seasonality. Mid to end October is when people normally start buying for the year end rally.
4. Sideline cash and performance anxiety. Lot of money is sitting on the sidelines for better entry. If market starts to lift and they're not onboard, funds are going to start to fear underperformance and start chasing.
5. Greed. People want their end of the year bonuses. Wall St had a terrible year but they're going to want their bonuses so they want to push the market up.
6. Fear. I haven't seen fear like this in 15 years I've been trading. That's bullish.
7. Fed and the govt. They're going to do whatever it takes to lift the market.
8. There are slow signs that credit market is thawing.

There are couple more but these are my main thoughts.

I'm on record in saying we've seen this year's low. Next year is next year and we'll deal with it then.

Forgot the most important reason why we'll lift. Too many people like you think we can't lift. That's the most bullish sign.