***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: JS80
lol this is madness.

x infinity

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: JS80
lol this is madness.

I just saw 450 point reversal in 3 minutes. +300 to -150 in about 3 minutes. Now we're back positive. There's war going on. I'm betting on the bull.

 

[ivan2]

lol looks like MS is going to hell. first nationalized brokerage i guess.

 

[Juddog]

Is it time to start buying yet?

 

[Ns1]

goddamnit I keep getting 403 errors from google

 

[Mill]

I've got some ultrashorts, but they are a minor part of my portfolio just trying to hedge. I'd like to see a closing rally.

 

[JS80]

lol yahoo finance crashing

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: JS80
lol this is madness.

I just saw 450 point reversal in 3 minutes. +300 to -150 in about 3 minutes. Now we're back positive. There's war going on. I'm betting on the bull.

How do u know this is not short covering? I'm still too uneasy to put anymore in the market.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: aldamon

Originally posted by: JS80
lol this is madness.

NO, THIS IS WALLLLLLLLLLLLLL STREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!!!!

hahaha

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: ricochet

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: JS80
lol this is madness.

I just saw 450 point reversal in 3 minutes. +300 to -150 in about 3 minutes. Now we're back positive. There's war going on. I'm betting on the bull.

How do u know this is not short covering? I'm still too uneasy to put anymore in the market.

Many bottoms have been made by short covering. Shorts buy to cover and that starts off real buying as others jump in. I've seen it many times. That's why I was so against this shorting ban and thought it was dangerous and would create a vacuum underneath if we were to fall.

I'm sure some of the buying during the massive reversal late today was short covering. They were scared what might come out over the weekend during the G7 meeting. But some of it was real buying. No one wants to miss what might be the mother of all rallies once we reverse and performance anxiety is real. I would've loved it for us to close positive to get the technical people onboard but you can't have everything. I'll take it and thank the trading gods.

I'm off and going to enjoy a breath of fresh air and celebrate. I've had a good day, and today I feel like I stared into the abyss and won.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

I guess. I'm thinking I should probably prepare for the worst case scenario. What would work in hyperinflation environment? Agricultural commodities, metals like gold, oil, and foreign currencies? What about deflation? What works in deflation? Nothing except for cash? If the path is deflation and then hyperinflation, then it would be best to save cash during deflation and then use it to buy commodities and foreign currencies at depressed prices to profit during the coming hyperinflation. Wouldn't that be right?

Or I could just move to Japan like that guy.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

I guess. I'm thinking I should probably prepare for the worst case scenario. What would work in hyperinflation environment? Agricultural commodities, metals like gold, oil, and foreign currencies? What about deflation? What works in deflation? Nothing except for cash? If the path is deflation and then hyperinflation, then it would be best to save cash during deflation and then use it to buy commodities and foreign currencies at depressed prices to profit during the coming hyperinflation. Wouldn't that be right?

Or I could just move to Japan like that guy.

What makes stocks bad in a deflationary environment? What about bonds? In a deflationary environment, will interest rates remain very low? I assume interest rates would be very high in a hyperinflationary environment.

 

[S Freud]

I hope this is the right place to ask.

I'm in college right now and looking to get into some entry level trading. Any books you guys can recommend for someone knew to the market like me? What should I be focusing on? Bonds, stocks, etc.? I can't say that I know much about any of it so anything helps.

Thanks

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

I guess. I'm thinking I should probably prepare for the worst case scenario. What would work in hyperinflation environment? Agricultural commodities, metals like gold, oil, and foreign currencies? What about deflation? What works in deflation? Nothing except for cash? If the path is deflation and then hyperinflation, then it would be best to save cash during deflation and then use it to buy commodities and foreign currencies at depressed prices to profit during the coming hyperinflation. Wouldn't that be right?

Or I could just move to Japan like that guy.

What makes stocks bad in a deflationary environment? What about bonds? In a deflationary environment, will interest rates remain very low? I assume interest rates would be very high in a hyperinflationary environment.

Everything falls in deflation including stocks and commodities so cash is king. Demand falls so prices fall. Since the price on everything fall, purchasing power of currency is increased. Likewise, cost of servicing the debt increases since purchasing power of the currency has increased yet the debt remains the same. Even if the interest rate is very low, it will still feel like higher rate since the money you're using to pay off the debt can purchase so much more. When I think of deflation, I think of recession/depression. So if we enter deflation, cash is king and debt becomes the enemy. Paying off my mortgage was good in that I eliminated debt but bad in sense a house is illiquid asset and during times of deflation, you want liquid assets and cash. But I don't view my house as an investment, and I need a place to live no matter what.

The threat now is deflation and the Fed has recognized that and cut rates. We're pretty much in recession and could enter depression so cash and elimination of debt becomes priority one. But if the ultimate path is period of deflation and the later hyperinflation, I want to have a gameplan and set aside small portion for the worst case scenario later on. I'm not an economist and I don't pretend to know lot about these stuff. I'm just a blue collar individual trying to make money and protect my assets while providing for my family.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: S Freud
I hope this is the right place to ask.

I'm in college right now and looking to get into some entry level trading. Any books you guys can recommend for someone knew to the market like me? What should I be focusing on? Bonds, stocks, etc.? I can't say that I know much about any of it so anything helps.

Thanks

Save. Trading is not for rookies. Read "The Intelligent Investor," by Benjamin Graham. When you finish college, start working, and have disposable income for investing, apply what you've learned from the book to buy stocks in quality companies at cheap prices and hold.

 

[ponyo]

I'm letting go some partial shares in select names here. Posco is up over $9 premarket so I let some of that go. Sold GE shares I picked up under $20 at $22.

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm letting go some partial shares in select names here. Posco is up over $9 premarket so I let some of that go. Sold GE shares I picked up under $20 at $22.

Smart. For some reason I think this rally will lose steam. Make some money while you still can.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: ricochet

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm letting go some partial shares in select names here. Posco is up over $9 premarket so I let some of that go. Sold GE shares I picked up under $20 at $22.

Smart. For some reason I think this rally will lose steam. Make some money while you still can.

It's extremely important that today ends up positive. A late day reversal would not look good at all for this week.

If that holds, the bottom was this past Friday...

until next year anyway

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

What's your definition of hyperinflation? We are creating obligations for each dollar we create. Even in a depressionary economy there shouldn't be hyperinflation. The only way the US would enter hyperinflation is if Obama decides to print money without selling bonds and starts handing it to people who voted for him. If it is a confidence issue, it will be too expensive for the govt to raise money (i.e. interest rates).

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

No, you're assuming your wages will keep up with inflation. Typically this doesn't happen.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

No, you're assuming your wages will keep up with inflation. Typically this doesn't happen.

I wasn't alive during the high-inflation periods of the 70's and early 80's. Are you saying people did not receive cost of living adjustments during that time?

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica
Are we going to trigger circuit breakers before this is all over?

My brain says to go all in but my hand isn't complying. Hedgefunds just threw up a big chunk of nasty.

I'm so fvcking glad I paid off my mortgage early this year. If I hadn't, I might be on the streets before this is all over.

Unless we enter hyperinflation (not-likely, but still a chance), having a mortgage might actually be a great hedge.

Very smart individual I read and follow believes US hyperinflation is inevitable. He has correctly forecast all the recent events for the past couple of years and has moved all his money into the Japanese Yen sometime back for the longterm. He wanted his assets denominated in currency where the money supply has a high amount of savings.

If we enter hyperinflation, wouldn't having a mortgage be a good thing, or at least not a bad one? Really, holding any type of fixed-rate debt wouldn't be a bad thing during hyperinflation, since you would be paying the debt back with increasingly-cheaper dollars.

Variable rate debt would be bad because the interest rate would rise right along with inflation.

No, you're assuming your wages will keep up with inflation. Typically this doesn't happen.

I wasn't alive during the high-inflation periods of the 70's and early 80's. Are you saying people did not receive cost of living adjustments during that time?

No, and more like people lost jobs during that time.

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: ricochet

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm letting go some partial shares in select names here. Posco is up over $9 premarket so I let some of that go. Sold GE shares I picked up under $20 at $22.

Smart. For some reason I think this rally will lose steam. Make some money while you still can.

It's extremely important that today ends up positive. A late day reversal would not look good at all for this week.

If that holds, the bottom was this past Friday...

until next year anyway

Well, I'm wrong. This is a real rally. Over 500pts rally so far. It will end up positive for sure. Man, really kicking myself for not picking up GM.