***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Ns1
Am I seeing this right?

bailout bill passes and stocks tumble?

The bill only passed the Senate. It still needs to pass the House tomorrow.

I've been saying the path to maximum pain is for the bill to pass and the stocks sell off on the news. That would cause massive panic and get the VIX near 70 and the bottom we need. My gameplan has been to wait for this panic selling. We're so close I can taste it. Buffett says he hasn't seen fear and panic like this. That's saying alot since the man lived through all kinds of crisis. Of course he's also talking his book since he wants this bill passed.

Remember Buffett's quote. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." Well, I see fear so I'm getting greedy. If and when the bill passes and we get the selloff and VIX spikes up near 70, I'm going in all in. I'm still fine tuning my buy list but I got plenty of cash to buy companies I want. Remember, market crash normally happens after a long decline, not at the top.

 

[freegeeks]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Ns1
Am I seeing this right?

bailout bill passes and stocks tumble?

The bill only passed the Senate. It still needs to pass the House tomorrow.

I've been saying the path to maximum pain is for the bill to pass and the stocks sell off on the news. That would cause massive panic and get the VIX near 70 and the bottom we need. My gameplan has been to wait for this panic selling. We're so close I can taste it. Buffett says he hasn't seen fear and panic like this. That's saying alot since the man lived through all kinds of crisis. Of course he's also talking his book since he wants this bill passed.

Remember Buffett's quote. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." Well, I see fear so I'm getting greedy. If and when the bill passes and we get the selloff and VIX spikes up near 70, I'm going in all in. I'm still fine tuning my buy list but I got plenty of cash to buy companies I want. Remember, market crash normally happens after a long decline, not at the top.

you are talking about panic when this bill passes, I can not imagine what we will have when it doesn't pass

I can see Europe starts it's own "bad bank" if the US bill fails.
There are already some rumours floating around about a 300 billion euro European bad bank

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: freegeeks

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Ns1
Am I seeing this right?

bailout bill passes and stocks tumble?

The bill only passed the Senate. It still needs to pass the House tomorrow.

I've been saying the path to maximum pain is for the bill to pass and the stocks sell off on the news. That would cause massive panic and get the VIX near 70 and the bottom we need. My gameplan has been to wait for this panic selling. We're so close I can taste it. Buffett says he hasn't seen fear and panic like this. That's saying alot since the man lived through all kinds of crisis. Of course he's also talking his book since he wants this bill passed.

Remember Buffett's quote. "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." Well, I see fear so I'm getting greedy. If and when the bill passes and we get the selloff and VIX spikes up near 70, I'm going in all in. I'm still fine tuning my buy list but I got plenty of cash to buy companies I want. Remember, market crash normally happens after a long decline, not at the top.

you are talking about panic when this bill passes, I can not imagine what we will have when it doesn't pass

I can see Europe starts it's own "bad bank" if the US bill fails.
There are already some rumours floating around about a 300 billion euro European bad bank

When I was plotting out the different scenarios early last week, the far scarier path was for the bill to pass and we get a massive selloff. This bill is supposed to save us. If we fall with the support of the bill, you don't think people will panic worse? People expect the stocks to go down if the bill fail. So the surprise element will be less and fear less. But if the bill passes and we still sell off, all the people who had bought hope would panic far worse.

Europe have the same problem we have. In some areas like Spain and England, it's far worse than us from what I hear.

 

[ponyo]

I'm reading that despite Buffett investments and Senate passing the bill yesterday, the credit market has gotten far worse and in some cases completely shut down. Equities eventually follow the credit market...

 

[ponyo]

Added more GE to bring the position to even 1,000 shrs. I'm done with GE unless it drops below $20. Still have plenty dry powder for other names.

 

[richardycc]

I have a feeling the bill is gonna not pass the house again, but it will final pass the 3rd, sorta like a 'the 3rd time is a charm' thing....hope I am wrong again.

 

[GML3G0]

Took a stake in DOW, GE, and VZ. All are yielding over 5.5% in dividends alone. TEX is just getting absolutely wrecked... as is ABB. I've been holding them since 47 and 26 respectively.

 

[ponyo]

I glanced at the sector summary on Google finance and I'm seeing some cheap stocks based on annual net income and the stock market cap. There are quite a few stocks with market cap less than 10x their annual net income. I know the net incomes are coming down but marketcap is falling faster. Fertilizer and insurance stocks got killed today.

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

Safe stocks like food processors and drugs will get hit eventually. Bear market and crash spares nothing. Bank stocks are ripe for downside damage. Too bad it's against the law to short these.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I glanced at the sector summary on Google finance and I'm seeing some cheap stocks based on annual net income and the stock market cap. There are quite a few stocks with market cap less than 10x their annual net income. I know the net incomes are coming down but marketcap is falling faster. Fertilizer and insurance stocks got killed today.

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

Safe stocks like food processors and drugs will get hit eventually. Bear market and crash spares nothing. Bank stocks are ripe for downside damage. Too bad it's against the law to short these.

True, but we would be hit less than others and we don't expect to lose our shirts.
27% of our portfolio is in health care alone, more than any other industry.

I'm doing better than the market by simply being in GILD, JNJ, TEVA, ESRX, COV, and MR.
Doing much better than the market overall.

I stick to the industry I know best.

Food processors?
People will still eat regardless. Kraft represents the "Wal-Mart" of food processors.
Safe dividend, cheap stock(at time of purchase), products and services that people need and want.
That's why I'm with them.
Oil is back to $90/barrel. Are they going to lower the food prices they increased by 8-12% when oil was floating at $130/barrel? No way. :laugh:

 

[imported_Lothar]

Lame double post.
Please delete.

 

[ponyo]

Wells Fargo buys Wachovia

I thought Citi had swallowed Wachovia? Very strange but that might explain the strength in Wachovia shares the past couple of days after it resumed trading.

Does this mean Citi is no longer too big to fail? I like Wells Fargo merger better as Wachovia client. Will give me atm access in the west coast and fits the geographic need better.

 

[oddyager]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Wells Fargo buys Wachovia

I thought Citi had swallowed Wachovia? Very strange but that might explain the strength in Wachovia shares the past couple of days after it resumed trading.

Does this mean Citi is no longer too big to fail? I like Wells Fargo merger better as Wachovia client. Will give me atm access in the west coast and fits the geographic need better.

No, they were still in talks about the possible acquisition. Guess Citi was too slow.

 

[DomS]

I am LOADED with Fred Mac and Lehman....waiting on this vote.

 

[Noirish]

too much speculation and no confidence even though the bill passed.
we will be lucky if it ends up slightly green.

at least it passed; otherwise, we were probably looking at another 5% drop.

 

[her209]

Did the taxpayers just get taken for 700 billion by Wall Street? Where's the rally?

 

[DomS]

Originally posted by: her209
Did the taxpayers just get taken for 700 billion by Wall Street? Where's the rally?

no confidence right now. I'm starting to think this bill might not do shit. If not we are royally fucked and that 'financial doomsday' poster on here may end up having the last laugh

 

[her209]

DJIA -150 right now

 

[her209]

1 more minute til close.

 

[her209]

-159.46

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: her209
Did the taxpayers just get taken for 700 billion by Wall Street? Where's the rally?

:laugh:

If you and everyone on Mainstreet was looking for a rally, don't you think the maximum pain is to do the opposite? You got to think outside of the herd. Thinking and running with the herd only leads to your slaughter.

 

[manly]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm reading that despite Buffett investments and Senate passing the bill yesterday, the credit market has gotten far worse and in some cases completely shut down. Equities eventually follow the credit market...

Popular media has reported credit markets as locked up for about a week already.

As far as the bailout bill, based on all the poor economic news of late, you're just hoping the bill acts to brake the recession from plummeting to a depression.

 

[mykol1010]

My puts are looking good!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: manly

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm reading that despite Buffett investments and Senate passing the bill yesterday, the credit market has gotten far worse and in some cases completely shut down. Equities eventually follow the credit market...

Popular media has reported credit markets as locked up for about a week already.

As far as the bailout bill, based on all the poor economic news of late, you're just hoping the bill acts to brake the recession from plummeting to a depression.

It's not even close to a depression right now. The situation is really bad, but the media is throwing out wrong words here.

 

[Jeff7181]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I glanced at the sector summary on Google finance and I'm seeing some cheap stocks based on annual net income and the stock market cap. There are quite a few stocks with market cap less than 10x their annual net income. I know the net incomes are coming down but marketcap is falling faster. Fertilizer and insurance stocks got killed today.

I want in on Posco and ConocoPhillips. But it's hard to know when the hedgefund forced selling will end.

Safe stocks like food processors and drugs will get hit eventually. Bear market and crash spares nothing. Bank stocks are ripe for downside damage. Too bad it's against the law to short these.

Does that include the Jack Lalanne Power Juicer?

 

[Azurik]

September 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 10,325 / -22.2 %
Nasdaq = 1,947 / -26.6 %
S&P 500 = 1,099 / -25.1 %
Russell 2000 = 619 / -19.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -16.8%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = -21.4%