***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[sandmanwake]

Originally posted by: JS80


Lucky stock picker does not equal good macroeconomist.

Ironically, he admits to not being a good at macroeconomics.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica
First Starbucks is not a fad. Fad doesn't last for decades. Second, you guys have no idea how tough restaurant business is and specifically the coffee shop business. Sure anyone can open a coffee shop but how many are even going to last a year.

Possible play on SBUX is to buy at around $15.50. Stop loss at $15. Sell at $17. 50 cent risk for possible $1.50 reward. But this market is brutal. Nothing I'm trying is currently working or works for long. That's telling me my style of trading doesn't work in this type of market and I need to step back or we're close to a turning point. It's definitely frustrating and one of the toughest market I've traded.

GM got it's head taken off today after a what seemed like a positive reversal yesterday. That's just brutal.

Starbucks is not a fad. But SBUX stock is crap. Stop loss is worthless in this volatile market. It's also worthless if there is a shoe drop. Are you really trying to time SBUX stock from 15 to 17?

Their business is in a decline. Stock prices are based on future GROWTH. Hence, shitty stock.

That's what makes a market. Nope, I'm not currently trading the stock. That's how I would trade if I was trading it from the long side. I would buy it for my long term holding but I'm drowning in CarMax at the moment so I don't need another consumer retail stock. I rather buy more CarMax.

You want to buy more of a used car dealership with a 20 PE? Hmm, in fact Carmax looks like a good short candidate.

Hahahaha, short it! I would have second thoughts myslef, with Warren Buffett buying it and all.

Warren buffet is a dinosaur. Compare his performance to S&P 500 YTD. It's worse. And the only reason why he's outperforming the past few years was his bet against the dollar and long silver.

Bet against the dollar? You do know that he was right, don't you.

As for BRK, I wish it was my only stock:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?...m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC,%5EDJI

And if you know anything about investing, you know that judging someone for 6 months of performance is a stupid thing to do. As for the past 6 months, he is pretty damned close to on par with the major indices.

Also, I need you to expand on your ignorance. Please explain in more detail how he is a dinosaur.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Capitalizt
I'm almost certain that stocks are pricing in an Obama presidency now.. Wall Street knows Obama is going to win, and they need to price in the coming income tax hike, as well as the hike in capital gains taxes from 15% to 28%. This is going to be a HUGE blow to the market and the smart money knows it. I think we may see a small bounce from here for purely technical reasons...but my "gut" feeling says in order to be fairly valued for 8 years of liberalism/socialism, we still need a 20-25% haircut across the board. It doesn't matter how strong the fundamentals are...All companies are going to be effected by bad government policies, and their prices must reflect that.

Warren Buffet referred to the 15% long term capital gains rate as a civil injustice. He pays less in taxes than his secretary who is taxed 15.7% at a minimum.

This just shows what a fucking hack Buffet is. I don't see him voluntarily paying the STCG rate. The low LTCG encourages investment. How can he not understand that? Oh because he's just a lucky tool who rode the bull market into the 90s and avoided the dot bomb by not investing in technology, which he self proclaims not to understand.

Lucky stock picker does not equal good macroeconomist.

Regarding tax rates, why would he? He knows tax law better than most people, including "experts". He is simply following the rules like anyone else. So, this dinosaur is stupid because he follows the US tax code?

>> Oh because he's just a lucky tool
Name calling, that will prove your point.

>>voided the dot bomb by not investing in technology,
>> which he self proclaims not to understand.
Correction. He avoiding the dot com bomb by not investing in GROSSLY OVERVALUED COMPANIES. Anyone who bought dot coms and lost it all deserved it.
As for as not understanding tech stocks (dot coms), if you are investing and do not know what "circle of competence" is, you will under perform the markets over the long term. This is one of the key reasons WEB has done well. He only invests in things he can understand. For example, everyone on this planet can understand Coca-Cola and it's durable competitive advantage. That is why he owns a ton of it. Nopw tell me that you understand dot coms. I bet you can better understand Coca Cola and if that is true, why would you invest in a dot com over Coca Cola 9assuming both are fairly valued)

Want to talk technology? 10 years ago, did you know Apple would be where it is today? Do you know where MSFT will be in 20 years? Why did the Zune fail? What about Apple? Will some other company come along in 5 years and destroy google? It's technology. It evolves quickly. Things change quickly. now, if you can not be certain of the future, how can you be certain of it's value? For the record, I own no technology based stocks. Will Microsofts rental based Office work? If it fails, will it be because people will move to open Office? And if so, will people move back to Office after they foudn that Open Office is jsut as good, but $70/year less? UNCERTAINTY!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: sandmanwake

Originally posted by: JS80


Lucky stock picker does not equal good macroeconomist.

Ironically, he admits to not being a good at macroeconomics.

If you look at how he invests, he does not need to care about macro-economics or interest rate cycles.

 

[Mardeth]

HQ thread. Im lovin it!

So anybody have any opinions on Nokia (NOK)? Has been hit quite hard lately. Basically only relevant company for me and Id appreciate an american's opinion.

 

[Noirish]

ouch, got punished by nvda today.
i think i'll load up later though.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: sandmanwake

Originally posted by: JS80


Lucky stock picker does not equal good macroeconomist.

Ironically, he admits to not being a good at macroeconomics.

If you look at how he invests, he does not need to care about macro-economics or interest rate cycles.

yet u take seriously his comment on ltcg being at a "low" 15%?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Mardeth
HQ thread. Im lovin it!

So anybody have any opinions on Nokia (NOK)? Has been hit quite hard lately. Basically only relevant company for me and Id appreciate an american's opinion.

Nokia has been caught with it's pants down by Apple & RIM, unless it brings some new models to market at an attractive price point they're irrelevant in today's market.

I know someone will chime in with something about an N95, but honestly, I don't know a soul with one, I know a hell of a lot of people with Blackberries & iPhones though.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Noirish
ouch, got punished by nvda today.
i think i'll load up later though.

Why bother catching a falling knife?

 

[JS80]

All aboard the failboat. Jump while it's still within swimming distance back to shore.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm planning to buy some call option tomorrow on Wachovia or SunTrust. Probably will buy Wachovia since it's beaten down more. I know BKX broke the 60 level but I think banks are due for a bounce.

Uhhh no. Wachovia is at risk of going broke. They have more write offs and need capital. My friend works at Wachovia - it's a fucking mess over there. They aren't letting anyone sell loans and there is no clear direction.

As for GE, my bet is they will lower dividends and their assets will come into question and the stock will continue it's further slide.

It's a trade, not investment. WB stinks the worst, so that's why I'm buying it. You got to zig when everyone zags. It's near end of the quarter. Hedge funds have been shorting the crap out of banks like Wachovia while riding up betas and commodities. But redemptions are hitting hedge funds and they have to unwind some trades. I think potential short covering from this unwind combined with any good news or uptick could lead to quick reversal pop.

I got my order for 10 Oct 17.5 calls at $2.35 and another 10 for $1.90. We'll see if I get hit.

So...how's your hand? Did the knife cut you?

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm planning to buy some call option tomorrow on Wachovia or SunTrust. Probably will buy Wachovia since it's beaten down more. I know BKX broke the 60 level but I think banks are due for a bounce.

Uhhh no. Wachovia is at risk of going broke. They have more write offs and need capital. My friend works at Wachovia - it's a fucking mess over there. They aren't letting anyone sell loans and there is no clear direction.

As for GE, my bet is they will lower dividends and their assets will come into question and the stock will continue it's further slide.

It's a trade, not investment. WB stinks the worst, so that's why I'm buying it. You got to zig when everyone zags. It's near end of the quarter. Hedge funds have been shorting the crap out of banks like Wachovia while riding up betas and commodities. But redemptions are hitting hedge funds and they have to unwind some trades. I think potential short covering from this unwind combined with any good news or uptick could lead to quick reversal pop.

I got my order for 10 Oct 17.5 calls at $2.35 and another 10 for $1.90. We'll see if I get hit.

So...how's your hand? Did the knife cut you?

Perfectly fine. You worried or something?

 

[her209]

VMW down a lot this morning.

 

[tfinch2]

Originally posted by: her209
VMW down a lot this morning.

My CEO stepped down.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Another tech stock bites the dust...This is too rich.
So much for all those people pumping VMW and EMC.

 

[Engineer]

Wow, I leave for a few hours and we have ANOTHER late day market takedown. Hell, I believe the damn thing is broken and there is no crazy glue to fix it.....

 

[Slew Foot]

god damn, my Sony puts are taking off!

That was a risky one, always risky when you try and short a market leader, paying off though.

JPM puts doing nicely as well.

 

[her209]

God damn it!

 

[her209]

What's the possibility of the DJIA going below 11,000 points?

 

[sandmanwake]

Originally posted by: her209
What's the possibility of the DJIA going below 11,000 points?

Looks like a pretty decent chance. Personally, I'm hoping it goes below 10,500. Heck, I'd be giddy if it goes below 10,000.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Health care.
I stick to what I know best.

 

[EMPshockwave82]

There has to be a 52 week low somewhere. If the stock market wasn't a gamble the 52 week low would always be a year ago.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Dooom!

Sweet. I have some cash sitting at my brokerage waiting to go into index fund shares. Drop a little more, market. Panic sell everybody, so I can buy and hold.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar
MCD with reinvested dividends will beat SBUX stock within 3 years.

As for the bet, you're on. I like caramel macchiato so that's going to cost you little extra pennies. SBUX today price: $15.68 MCD: $57.43.

I know our SBUX discussion is long dead, but I just wanted to let you fully understand my point of view.
Here's an excellent article that highlight's SBUX's major problems.
http://www.businessweek.com/ma...index+page_top+stories

Read everything, especially the part about the leaked internal memo written by founder Howard Schultz.
Everything discussed in the article, I already touched and addressed from my earlier posts, if not more than that.

I'll see you in 3 years.

 

[lucasorion]

How about AMD? as long as they don't go out of business, this has to be the bottom.