Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
IMHO, Starbucks is going to continue to have problems, it doesn't have an exclusive product, even the lowly McDonalds is making inroads into upscale coffee.
IMHO, Starbucks is going to continue to have problems, it doesn't have an exclusive product, even the lowly McDonalds is making inroads into upscale coffee.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Wow, it was thin trading out there. I know it's front of holiday and all but it's bad when I can't get good fills on my small trades. I managed to grab some October calls on Wachovia and CarMax. I only got partial fill on my WB Oct 17.5 calls at $1.75. Rest went unfilled. Grabbed some KMX Oct 15 calls at $1.45. I accounted for 55% of the total trade volume on that call.
I was encouraged by the action in banks and GM today. GM is both financial and auto, two of the most beaten and hated sectors at the moment. GM's big % interday reversal gives hope banks and auto sector can rally from oversold conditions.
I was encouraged by the action in banks and GM today. GM is both financial and auto, two of the most beaten and hated sectors at the moment. GM's big % interday reversal gives hope banks and auto sector can rally from oversold conditions.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
I think Starbucks is a good buy in the $15s and international growth will help support the stock price in the future. Starbucks has a great brand name and franchise and contrary to popular belief, I think the barrier to entry into its business is quite high IMO. But short term, it's hard to fight $4 gas.
One of the reasons why I didn't buy SBUX a few months back was that they don't pay dividends... I would've made a good chunk had I bought in the 15s.
My financial shares got pounded... I might buy some WB if it goes down some more so I can average down a little.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
You could sell some covered calls. That requires little more work but can give you some potential dividend like income.
Don't worry about missed opportunities. Opportunities are made up easier than losses.
I'm playing WB strictly with calls and it's only for a trade. I don't want to be holding the stock in case it crashes or gets a buy under. Sure I'll lose some in an event of a crash but I'm limiting my exposure with options and will live to play another day. Can't say the same with the stock and this dog has lot of fleas.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
No durable competitive advantage. They are just like large trucking companies. To become a competitor, you need a truck drivers liscense and a truck.
To be a competitor to starbucks, you have to open up a similar store right next door. It's not hard to do. You can't do this to McDonalds though because McDonoalds has serious pricing power and for what it is worth, MCD has good food. That is durable competive advantage.
Starbucks is an experience Most admit that they go there for hte experieince. SO when the fad is over (jsut like Crox) so will be the business.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
or an Epic Failure
No, seriously, good luck. I think we may have a bounce in the short-term, but I'm not sure C is done with their troubles. I've been bearish on C for quite some time now. I wrote sometime earlier that if I were to own a bank, I'd buy Goldman Sachs. I miss the chance when they were trading down to $140-$150's, but we may see them dip that low if financials continue to post steep losses.
Go GOLD!
Go SILVER!
I don't like buying mining stocks...too much risk (political problems...economic problems..high energy prices...poor management decisions, etc).
So I stick with GLD and SLV.
For those who don't know, each share of GLD is backed by 1/10oz .999 gold, and each share of SLV is backed by 10 ounces of pure silver. If you aren't going to buy the real thing, and don't want to risk owning mining companies, this is the next best way to play the precious metals.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Originally posted by: Capitalizt
Go GOLD!
Go SILVER!
I don't like buying mining stocks...too much risk (political problems...economic problems..high energy prices...poor management decisions, etc).
So I stick with GLD and SLV.
For those who don't know, each share of GLD is backed by 1/10oz .999 gold, and each share of SLV is backed by 10 ounces of pure silver. If you aren't going to buy the real thing, and don't want to risk owning mining companies, this is the next best way to play the precious metals.
Pure plays are the way to go. Jim Rogers said the same thing. He doesn't like the mining stocks for the same reason you listed. If you're buying commodities and precious metals, buy the real thing, and not the companies.
SBUX has no moat.
Anyone can easily setup their own coffee shop. Many stores already have their shop and only need to pay $100 more to setup their own coffee stand.
McDonalds, Burger King, Dunkin Donuts, Krispy Creme, "insert any other fast food restaurant here". Even all the Walgreen stores in my area are now having their own coffee and flavor ice stands.
SBUX coffee franchise is not that great.
Most people I know only go there for the experience, to meet new people and such.
Why pay $4 for a cup of coffee when you can barely afford $4/gallon gas?
Currently, it's hip and cool to buy an expensive cup of coffee, but at some point that will no longer be the case.
It's good that Howard Schultz is back. However I think it's still a little early to start playing it.
Don't expect him to change things there overnight. Maybe wait a year or so and see.
Your post has been marked.
If I remember correctly you also went all financials in Feb meaning you probably bought some C at $23-25.
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Originally posted by: Azurik
or an Epic Failure
No, seriously, good luck. I think we may have a bounce in the short-term, but I'm not sure C is done with their troubles. I've been bearish on C for quite some time now. I wrote sometime earlier that if I were to own a bank, I'd buy Goldman Sachs. I miss the chance when they were trading down to $140-$150's, but we may see them dip that low if financials continue to post steep losses.
Buying wonderful busiensses at fair prices is a good idea.
buying fair business at wonderful prices is not a good idea.
Unfortunately, C is a POS stock. Putting all my money on a speculative bet (BET, NOT INVESTMENT) is not a good idea. If you are putting all your money into a bank, you better be ale to tell me that you analyzed C and understand why it is a good investment. If Warren Buffett can't understand most financials these days, how can you?
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
This is my post about SBUX from another forum:
ASs a side note, I have looked over all of the 'good" restaurants. Only MCD is worth investing in. The problem with MCD though, is valuation. It's to damned expensive right now. The same goes for KO.
Originally posted by: Azurik
or an Epic Failure
No, seriously, good luck. I think we may have a bounce in the short-term, but I'm not sure C is done with their troubles. I've been bearish on C for quite some time now. I wrote sometime earlier that if I were to own a bank, I'd buy Goldman Sachs. I miss the chance when they were trading down to $140-$150's, but we may see them dip that low if financials continue to post steep losses.
C, WB, BAC are all fool's gold right now. Avoid like the plague. At least one of those 3 will fail in the next 18 months. GS might be killing it right now with their traders reaping profits from oil and shorting the market. Even so their level 3 assets have zero visibility and may be full of shit.
IMO GE is a POS too. Great businesses? Maybe. But look at that toxic ass balance sheet.
SBUX is a POS too. McD is going to kill them. Imagine all the locations McD has. Imagine them remodeling a corner of the restaurant and building a mini "cafe" and sell premium coffee at cutthroat prices. In that case SBUX will bk.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
First Starbucks is not a fad. Fad doesn't last for decades. Second, you guys have no idea how tough restaurant business is and specifically the coffee shop business. Sure anyone can open a coffee shop but how many are even going to last a year.
Possible play on SBUX is to buy at around $15.50. Stop loss at $15. Sell at $17. 50 cent risk for possible $1.50 reward. But this market is brutal. Nothing I'm trying is currently working or works for long. That's telling me my style of trading doesn't work in this type of market and I need to step back or we're close to a turning point. It's definitely frustrating and one of the toughest market I've traded.
GM got it's head taken off today after a what seemed like a positive reversal yesterday. That's just brutal.
Possible play on SBUX is to buy at around $15.50. Stop loss at $15. Sell at $17. 50 cent risk for possible $1.50 reward. But this market is brutal. Nothing I'm trying is currently working or works for long. That's telling me my style of trading doesn't work in this type of market and I need to step back or we're close to a turning point. It's definitely frustrating and one of the toughest market I've traded.
GM got it's head taken off today after a what seemed like a positive reversal yesterday. That's just brutal.
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
- 651
- 126
One of my favorite coffee shops is the Starbucks in Davis Sq, Somerville, MA. It's got a fireplace in the center with lots of tables and coaches surrounding it. It even has an area for students with desks.
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: Azurik
or an Epic Failure
No, seriously, good luck. I think we may have a bounce in the short-term, but I'm not sure C is done with their troubles. I've been bearish on C for quite some time now. I wrote sometime earlier that if I were to own a bank, I'd buy Goldman Sachs. I miss the chance when they were trading down to $140-$150's, but we may see them dip that low if financials continue to post steep losses.
C, WB, BAC are all fool's gold right now. Avoid like the plague. At least one of those 3 will fail in the next 18 months. GS might be killing it right now with their traders reaping profits from oil and shorting the market. Even so their level 3 assets have zero visibility and may be full of shit.
IMO GE is a POS too. Great businesses? Maybe. But look at that toxic ass balance sheet.
SBUX is a POS too. McD is going to kill them. Imagine all the locations McD has. Imagine them remodeling a corner of the restaurant and building a mini "cafe" and sell premium coffee at cutthroat prices. In that case SBUX will bk.
None of the banks you mentioned will outright "fail". Actually I can see C cutting up into smaller pieces. BAC's fundamentals aren't too bad besides the CFC acquisition (and they paid much less than WB paying for Golden West). Feds "bailed out" BSC, and there is no way the Feds will sit by and watch and let any one of the banks to fail (I happen to own two of the 3 and they're getting rammed). They hold too much deposits...
Only a part of GE's business is in financials. I think their alternative energy stuff will bring in pretty good profits.
My uncle and I talked about SBUX and he mentioned that SBUX is more like a lifestyle compared to McD, either way I'm staying on the sideline now.
It's probably best for GM to go Chapter 11 at this point isn't it?
*edit* meant to write Chapter 11...
Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: Azurik
or an Epic Failure
No, seriously, good luck. I think we may have a bounce in the short-term, but I'm not sure C is done with their troubles. I've been bearish on C for quite some time now. I wrote sometime earlier that if I were to own a bank, I'd buy Goldman Sachs. I miss the chance when they were trading down to $140-$150's, but we may see them dip that low if financials continue to post steep losses.
C, WB, BAC are all fool's gold right now. Avoid like the plague. At least one of those 3 will fail in the next 18 months. GS might be killing it right now with their traders reaping profits from oil and shorting the market. Even so their level 3 assets have zero visibility and may be full of shit.
IMO GE is a POS too. Great businesses? Maybe. But look at that toxic ass balance sheet.
SBUX is a POS too. McD is going to kill them. Imagine all the locations McD has. Imagine them remodeling a corner of the restaurant and building a mini "cafe" and sell premium coffee at cutthroat prices. In that case SBUX will bk.
None of the banks you mentioned will outright "fail". Actually I can see C cutting up into smaller pieces. BAC's fundamentals aren't too bad besides the CFC acquisition (and they paid much less than WB paying for Golden West). Feds "bailed out" BSC, and there is no way the Feds will sit by and watch and let any one of the banks to fail (I happen to own two of the 3 and they're getting rammed). They hold too much deposits...
Only a part of GE's business is in financials. I think their alternative energy stuff will bring in pretty good profits.
My uncle and I talked about SBUX and he mentioned that SBUX is more like a lifestyle compared to McD, either way I'm staying on the sideline now.
Fail, as in bk, fail or bailed out. Bailing out = fail. And in the case of bailing out, I can guarantee you equity holders will not get the "sweet" deal BSC holders got. Bail out = depositors are safe, but equity holders get nothing after debtholders.
Hopefully BAC will choose not to guarantee CFC's $97 billion debt.
What are the negative implications if they choose not to guarantee them?
What are the negative implications if they choose not to guarantee them?
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