***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[Ricochet]

Has anyone been watching what happened to TMA in the last few days? Man, what a rollercoaster. Too bad I was too much a chicken sh!t when it was around $0.60/share.

 

[imported_Lothar]

TMA?
No, thank you.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: ricochet
Has anyone been watching what happened to TMA in the last few days? Man, what a rollercoaster. Too bad I was too much a chicken sh!t when it was around $0.60/share.

No, but I've been watching the carnage in Bear Sterns and Humana with interest. BSC is absolutely getting bear raided and mauled and seeing swings of 15-20% a day which is crazy. Humana, oh man, people thought healthcare stocks were safe and hiding in these stocks. Bears are raiding all the healthcare stocks. Brutal.

Where there's smoke, there's usually fire. Lot of people are betting Bear isn't going to make it. I'm going to have to side with them. Lot of people buying Bear puts. I'm tempted to join but the trade looks very crowded.

 

[Ricochet]

I saw what happened to Humana and actually got in after the drop at $34 and sold it off the same day at $40. I honestly didn't expect it to bounce to $46 the very next day.

 

[LegendKiller]

What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

 

[bonkers325]

nm

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

I picked up bear at 31.67 and thought I got jacked.

It's at 34.37 now. I need more monies.

 

[Miramonti]

I hope they nail the insider trading bastards that bought 30,000 March 25 puts all they way up to $.35 the last few days, that previously only had an open interest of 1,400 and were trading at $.05.

 

[bonkers325]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

I picked up bear at 31.67 and thought I got jacked.

It's at 34.37 now. I need more monies.

if you didn't sell when it peaked at $37, you are about to be blindsided

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: jjsole
I hope they nail the insider trading bastards that bought 30,000 March 25 puts all they way up to $.35 the last few days, that previously only had an open interest of 1,400 and were trading at $.05.

You know that's what everyone was talking about the last few days and that's what caught my eye as well. It was absolutely crazy the past couple days on March 35, 30, and 25 puts. Everyone was talking about the insane numbers of puts being bought around these strikes. Unless you had crazy inside information, what sane person is going to buy put contracts on a stock that's trading around $70 thinking it's going to drop to $25-35 before the options expire in less than 10 days. 99.99% of the time, it's going to expire worthless and you're going to lose all of the money. Like I said, where there is smoke, there's usually fire. I thought about buying March 30 and 35 puts the past two days as well because I thought someone had inside info to be buying all those crazy puts. But I didn't pull the trigger but just watched.

From the smart people I'm reading, they been saying Bear was toast and they didn't think Bear was going to make it. They've been saying it for couple of weeks now. They also said Lehman was in heap of trouble but not as bad as Bear. Lehman took a beating today as well but nothing like Bear. Another company supposedly toast is National City Corporation. I'm following that name as well.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

I picked up bear at 31.67 and thought I got jacked.

It's at 34.37 now. I need more monies.

if you didn't sell when it peaked at $37, you are about to be blindsided

Yeah that's what I told myself when I looked at the reports when I got back from lunch. We'll see how this goes.

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

I picked up bear at 31.67 and thought I got jacked.

It's at 34.37 now. I need more monies.

if you didn't sell when it peaked at $37, you are about to be blindsided

Yeah that's what I told myself when I looked at the reports when I got back from lunch. We'll see how this goes.

Best of luck to you. The way I see it, though, it has more to fall.

 

[ponyo]

Bear options

5 cents to $4.10 in less than 2 days. What's that? Isn't that like 9,000% return in less 48 hours? This game is so rigged.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Bear options

5 cents to $4.10 in less than 2 days. What's that? Isn't that like 9,000% return in less 48 hours? This game is so rigged.

It all depends. There were rumblings of it days ago, but nobody thought it was true. I certainly heard it on Wednesday and it was public knowledge. However, when talking with a group in my area they said that BSC had plenty of liquidity, which everybody thought. Somebody thought differently, saw the movement, and decided to move also.

 

[ponyo]

No, timing stinks. Choosing that low of a strike price so close to expiration and 2 days before the announcement? That's extremely aggressive target and timing even given the benefit of the doubt.

Lehman is next. I've seen this movie before many times and guilt by association can't be escaped. As Washington Mutual fell with Countrywide, so will Lehman. I'm buying puts on Lehman. Goldman reports Tuesday. Should be very interesting next week and should see big swings both ways.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Naustica
No, timing stinks. Choosing that low of a strike price so close to expiration and 2 days before the announcement? That's extremely aggressive target and timing even given the benefit of the doubt.

Lehman is next. I've seen this movie before many times and guilt by association can't be escaped. As Washington Mutual fell with Countrywide, so will Lehman. I'm buying puts on Lehman. Goldman reports Tuesday. Should be very interesting next week and should see big swings both ways.

Timing stinks? What? As I said, I heard about BSC having liquidity problems days ago, it's not hard to imagine somebody believed that and went for it with others pushing in also.

I am not sure about Lehman, they didn't do as much buy/hold of this stuff, but at this point, who knows.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Naustica
No, timing stinks. Choosing that low of a strike price so close to expiration and 2 days before the announcement? That's extremely aggressive target and timing even given the benefit of the doubt.

Lehman is next. I've seen this movie before many times and guilt by association can't be escaped. As Washington Mutual fell with Countrywide, so will Lehman. I'm buying puts on Lehman. Goldman reports Tuesday. Should be very interesting next week and should see big swings both ways.

Timing stinks? What? As I said, I heard about BSC having liquidity problems days ago, it's not hard to imagine somebody believed that and went for it with others pushing in also.

I am not sure about Lehman, they didn't do as much buy/hold of this stuff, but at this point, who knows.

Lehman is levered 40 to 1 and has 4 times as much Level 3 assets as it does capital. They're going to have to write down tens of billions of dollars. Lehman is screwed just like Bear.

 

[her209]

This is awesome. My 401k just went up 10% this week. I'm 100% in bonds.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: bonkers325

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
What's happening to Bear is absolutely stunning.

I picked up bear at 31.67 and thought I got jacked.

It's at 34.37 now. I need more monies.

if you didn't sell when it peaked at $37, you are about to be blindsided

Yeah that's what I told myself when I looked at the reports when I got back from lunch. We'll see how this goes.

I hope you didn't gamble your retirement away.
Your investment is now worth $2/share.

What made you buy it at $31.67 in the first place?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080316...rgan_bear_stearns.html

JPMorgan Chase Says It Will Acquire Rival Bear Stearns for $2 a Share

JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns in a deal valued at $236.2 million, a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most venerable investment banks.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the $2 a share, all-stock deal has received the required approvals from the federal government and the Federal Reserve. Bear Stearns shares close Friday at $30 a share.

The Fed will provide special financing to JPMorgan Chase for the deal, JPMorgan Chase said. The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets.

At almost the same time as the deal for control of Bear Stearns was announced, the Federal Reserve said it approved a cut in its lending rate to banks to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent and created another lending facility for big investment banks. The central bank's official meeting is on Tuesday. Before the emergency move to lower the discount rate, which is the rate at which banks lend each other money, the Fed was widely expected to again cut its headline rate by as much as a full point to 2 percent.

The announcement from both the Fed and JPMorgan comes ahead of what some analysts expected to be a brutal day for global stocks. Already, before the announcements, New Zealand's markets opened drastically lower -- then began to recover after the deal was unveiled.

A collapse of Bear Stearns could have created a further crisis of confidence in world financial markets amid a deepening credit crunch. JPMorgan's acquisition of Bear Stearns represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.

The deal represented a 93.3 percent discount to Bear Stearns' market capitalization as of Friday, and roughly a 98.8 percent discount to its book value as of Feb. 29.

"The past week has been an incredibly difficult time for Bear Stearns," said Bear Stearns Chief Executive Alan Schwartz in a statement. "This represents the best outcome for all of our constituencies based upon the current circumstances."

 

[Koing]

Hmmmmm...I had 2nd round of interviews with Bears on Monday...

Koing

 

[ponyo]

Wow oh wow. I just came home from work and saw this news. $2 / shr for Bear. Basically a token transaction. People with March Puts scored a jackpot. Incredible.

 

[LegendKiller]

Imagine the guy who owned 10% of bear. That was worth 2bn in 1/07. Now it's worth 23M. Now that deserves a "shit!".

Fed cut rates 25bps also. They are trying to head off a panic tomorrow.

 

[ponyo]

So this means Citi will have to writedown another $50 billion. Bear was leveraged 40 to 1. Lehman did the same. How low you think Lehman is going to open Monday morning?

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Koing
Hmmmmm...I had 2nd round of interviews with Bears on Monday...

Koing

You could expect a hiring freeze. With Jp morgan most likely buying them, there will be plenty of personel to fill vacancies before the rest of the redundancy gets booted.

 

[Miramonti]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Wow oh wow. I just came home from work and saw this news. $2 / shr for Bear. Basically a token transaction. People with March Puts scored a jackpot. Incredible.

With 133mil shares outstanding, valued at $2b, that would make each share worth $15...iinm.