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October Surprise: Regime Change in Iran?

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"In recent days Iranians all over the country have been rushing to dealers to change their rials into hard currency. The result has been a spectacular plunge in the rial which has lost a third of its value against the dollar in the past week.

Traders in Teheran estimate in fact that it has lost two-thirds of its value since June 2011 as U.S and European economic sanctions bite hard into the country’s oil exports. The government blames the rout on speculators.

According to Charles Robertson at Renaissance Capital, the rial’s tumble to record lows and inflation running around 25 percent may be an indicator that Iran is moving towards regime change. Robertson reminds us of his report from back in March where he pointed out that autocratic countries with a falling per capita income are more likely to move towards democracy. (Click here for what we wrote on this topic at the time)
He says today:
The renewed collapse of the currency recently suggests sanctions are working towards that end.
Iran’s 2009 per capita income of over $10,000 would put it among the countries that have a 5.1 to 15.5 percent chance of democratisation if incomes shrink, according to Robertson’s calculations in March, based on past regime changes in other countries. (Iran itself could argue, reasonably enough, that it is the most democratic country in the region — everyone over the age of 18, including women, are allowed to vote, though the choice of candidates is restricted)

Furthermore, 17% of the population is comprised of young men aged 15-29 (more than in the Arab Spring countries of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria or Libya) — another underlying factor that could trigger unrest, according to his research.

Now that Iran is feeling the sting of the sanctions, it remains to be seen whether income levels will reach levels low enough to trigger the regime change anticipated by the report.

So far the government remains defiant. At a news conference today, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ascribed the troubles to “psychological war” by enemies."
http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2012/10/02/iran-currency-plunge-an-omen-for-change/

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2012/10/ahmadinejads-camerman-defected-during-his-un-visit/57447/



Bin Laden, Gaddaffi, now the Ayatollahs...

As I've said previously, Romney plays checkers at the level of a child who learned the rules of the game a few minutes ago. Obama, Clinton, and Bernanke, multi-dimensional chess at the level of grand master.

:ninja:
 
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Feb 4, 2009
30,446
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It HAS to happen at some time in Iran, I can't imagine why anyone would be happy with insane inflation, insane unemployment and basic necessities shortages.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,038
36
86
snip As I've said previously, Romney plays [U][B]checkers[/B][/U] at the level of a child who learned the rules of the game a few minutes ago. Obama, Clinton, and Bernanke, [U][B]multi-dimensional chess[/B][/U] at the level of grand master. :ninja:[/QUOTE] Hahhahahaha, hahahahahahha, Oh man that was good. Hahahahaha....
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,346
4,059
126
Hahhahahaha, hahahahahahha, Oh man that was good. Hahahahaha....
Hahahahaha Hohohohohohoho Hehehehehehehe, the brilliance of the argument in this post was massive. Couldn't be beat by somebody who's brain dead.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,038
36
86
Hahahahaha Hohohohohohoho Hehehehehehehe, the brilliance of the argument in this post was massive. Couldn't be beat by somebody who's brain dead.
What can I say, I find humorous posts humorous. I love your parody posts, and when people make joke posts like mshan just did, we should all find the appropriate joy in them.

Weird you posted what you did though, it's like you have a parody ego as well? If your parody ego was hurt that someone found it scream laugh worthy the comparison of Romney to Obama, and especially Bummer&Co's ability, shouldn't you do a parody post to cover that hurt?

That wasn't your parody post was it? If so you were doing a ton better in the other thread, that was one of your best parody posts in quite a while! :thumbsup:

Chuck
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,576
431
126
I think you vastly overestimate the planning and capabilities of your government. The Arab Spring was nearly wholly self-initiated and propelled. It was wonderful of some of NATO to assist in Lebanon and to a lesser extent in Egypt and Syria, but they were reactions, not actions.
 

MovingTarget

Diamond Member
Jun 22, 2003
8,992
96
91
Do I expect a "Persian Spring" sometime in my lifetime? Sure. Within the next decade? Perhaps. By October of this year? Highly unlikely. These things take time to fester and develop before a government is toppled, and we haven't really seen anything of that level over in Iran lately.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
15,445
3,005
126
I think you vastly overestimate the planning and capabilities of your government. The Arab Spring was nearly wholly self-initiated and propelled. It was wonderful of some of NATO to assist in Lebanon and to a lesser extent in Egypt and Syria, but they were reactions, not actions.



I'll assume you meant Libya.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton blasted Tehran with a diplomatic bombshell that is ricocheting throughout the mosques and bazaars of Iran: Clinton revoked the US terrorist designation of the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK), causing much dismay in the Islamic Republic.

Iran’s foreign ministry strongly condemned the decision to revoke the designation and stated that it held the United States responsible for terrorist acts of the MEK in the “past, present, and the future.” In contrast, dozens of major Iranian-American organizations hailed Secretary Clinton for her decision to de-list the group.

Because the MEK is the main Iranian dissident group that rejects Iranian clerical rule, Tehran pays the most attention to it and dislikes the MEK more than all other opposition organizations combined, according to one study. The de-listing does little to disabuse the regime of their dislike and, in fact, stokes their fears. It is no coincidence that human rights organizations indicate that most of those sentenced to death or executed after the 2009 summer uprising in Iran belonged to the MEK.

A reason the regime pays so little attention to other oppositionists is that they toe the line with Tehran.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=286535


"Presently we have constant cyber attacks in the country. Yesterday an attack with a traffic of several gigabytes hit the Internet infrastructure, which caused an unwanted slowness in the country's Internet," he said.

"All of these attacks have been organized. And they have in mind the country's nuclear, oil, and information networks."

Israeli officials have threatened military action against the Islamic Republic's nuclear energy sites if Western sanctions on Tehran's banking and oil sectors do not persuade it to shelve its disputed atomic program.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-iran-cyberbre8920mo-20121003,0,7927520.story
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
The "Arab Spring" movements so far have been basically secular dictatorships (who occasionally pay lip service to the radical islamic elements) being toppled by "Pro-democracy" groups who promptly fold to the tide of Islamist parties who run rough shot over everyone politically. In fact this story is also reflected in the history of modern 20th century Iran. So for there to be a "Persian Spring" in the 21st century the historical trend would have to reverse itself in that country/society.
 

DucatiMonster696

Diamond Member
Aug 13, 2009
4,269
1
71
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Iron Wolf

Member
Jul 27, 2010
185
0
0
Iran is already a constitutional republic. Just because the leaders are anti-American doesn't make it any less of one.

Recent history in that part of the world would seem to indicate a descent into anarchy, followed by the rise of Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaida based governing bodies which are even more hostile to western interests and their own people's liberties.

Looking back to before WW2, the Democratic Weimar Republic in Germany was overthrown by Hitler and the Nazis. He got the economy back under control put everybody back to work, but at the cost of the institution of a repressive, authoritarian, fascist regime.

To have a real republic, you need an educated populace and a strong economy. Without either one, you fall into anarchy, followed by either a descent into communism or fascism and dictatorship. This is what is happening in Iran ("Persia" as Americans of that descent prefer) now, and what will probably happen in the USA eventually.

In other words OP: the author you quote has no knowledge of historical context nor any other clue what he is talking about.
 
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TheDev

Senior member
Jun 1, 2012
206
0
0
October surprise! The economy wasn't ever that bad at all. The financial collapse was just a conspiracy. Surprise!
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,872
4,214
126
Iran is already a constitutional republic. Just because the leaders are anti-American doesn't make it any less of one.

Recent history in that part of the world would seem to indicate a descent into anarchy, followed by the rise of Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Qaida based governing bodies which are even more hostile to western interests and their own people's liberties.

Looking back to before WW2, the Democratic Weimar Republic in Germany was overthrown by Hitler and the Nazis. He got the economy back under control put everybody back to work, but at the cost of the institution of a repressive, authoritarian, fascist regime.

To have a real republic, you need an educated populace and a strong economy. Without either one, you fall into anarchy, followed by either a descent into communism or fascism and dictatorship. This is what is happening in Iran ("Persia" as Americans of that descent prefer) now, and what will probably happen in the USA eventually.

In other words OP: the author you quote has no knowledge of historical context nor any other clue what he is talking about.
When is the Ayatollah up for reelection?
 

palehorse

Lifer
Dec 21, 2005
11,521
0
76
I think you vastly overestimate the planning and capabilities of your government. The Arab Spring was nearly wholly self-initiated and propelled. It was wonderful of some of NATO to assist in Lebanon and to a lesser extent in Egypt and Syria, but they were reactions, not actions.
Was it really "wonderful"? Really?! I fail to see how the now seemingly inevitable establishment of Islamist states in those countries will ultimately be beneficial to either stability in the region or security in the free world...

I think "wonderful" is the last word I would ever use to describe our involvement in the Arab Spring, and the thought that someone would see such moves as being akin to those of a "chess grand master" is beyond repulsive.
 

StrangerGuy

Diamond Member
May 9, 2004
8,443
124
106
If a populace as promising as Iran is going to elect another pro-Islamist government after an uprising I am going to say the Middle East is a goner forever.
 

nextJin

Golden Member
Apr 16, 2009
1,848
0
0
Was Bernanke thinking in multidimensional terms when he suggested Greenspan prop up a housing bubble in the early 2000s?
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,872
4,214
126
The rial is now worth less than 1/3 of its value from just a few months back. Its also likely to continue to fall so losing 90% or more by early next year is not hard to imagine. At that point the Ayatollah has few options. He'll have to bargain with the west from a far weaker position, eliminate/kill his people to make it known that he, not the people, matter or provoke an armed conflict as a distraction or do nothing. All but the first option sees him facing Saddams fate unless something extraordinary happens.
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
The rial is now worth less than 1/3 of its value from just a few months back. Its also likely to continue to fall so losing 90% or more by early next year is not hard to imagine. At that point the Ayatollah has few options. He'll have to bargain with the west from a far weaker position, eliminate/kill his people to make it known that he, not the people, matter or provoke an armed conflict as a distraction or do nothing. All but the first option sees him facing Saddams fate unless something extraordinary happens.
The Ayatollah has a holy army at his side.

The Basij have shown multiple times they are not afraid to fire live ammunition at protesters.

Remember the Neda incident? If that can't spark armed revolution I don't know what can.
 

airdata

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2010
4,987
0
0
So we basically commit financial terrorism against an entire nation in order to " punish " a few at the top?
 

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