"Rising truck shipments show the
U.S. economic expansion is intact, even amid concerns that a slowdown in retail sales and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could stall growth.
Two measures of trucking activity signal the industry remains steady and has even “firmed up” since mid-May, according to Ben Hartford, an analyst in Milwaukee with Robert W. Baird & Co. The data complement anecdotal information from carriers that
freight demand ended May on a strong note after more weakness than anticipated earlier in the month, he said.
“Trucking trends are reflective of an economic environment that is stable, not deteriorating,” Hartford said."
...
"Another index that tracks the movement of goods between manufacturers and consumers also is a “good barometer” of the economy, said Jonathan Starks, director of transportation analysis at FTR Associates.
FTR’s index of U.S. truck loadings increased 3 percent to 115.9 in April from a year earlier, the highest since 2008, based on data from the Nashville, Indiana- based transportation-forecasting company.
Not Stalling
April’s improvement suggests the economy is expanding. “It’s not red-hot, but it’s not stalling, either,” Starks said, adding that annual gains above 5 percent would suggest robust activity. Index growth exceeded 5 percent between July 2010 and March 2011, the data show, while gross domestic product expanded an average 2.9 percent year-over-year in the same period."
...
‘
As Forecasted’
Both the economy and the operating environment for Landstar are “pretty much as forecasted,” moving “in a northerly direction, albeit in a slow and sometimes choppy pace,” Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Henry Gerkens said on a conference call that day.
Landstar reiterated its guidance even as U.S. retail sales weakened. A 0.2 percent drop in May matched an April decline that previously was reported as a gain, based on data from the Commerce Department. This prompted some economists -- including those at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse AG -- to cut forecasts for second-quarter growth.
The sequential declines are “consistent with retailers’ broader concerns about CONSUMER DEMAND and validate cautious recent inventory strategies among retail and consumer shippers,” Hartford said."
...
Further, forecasts for
FTR’s loadings index suggest activity will return steadily to 2007’s pre-recession levels by late 2014*, Starks said. The index has risen 12 percent from a 16-year low of 103.5 in December 2009, six months after the 18- month slump ended, the data show.
“We probably won’t get a new peak for another couple years,” Starks said. “But the data is clearly showing that we’re also not entering any sort of recessionary environment at the moment.”
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