Obama's 2nd term - bad news for Dems long term.

[jackstar7]

Bottom line, the Democrats won. It's no longer a traditional American nation; it's now a center left nation.

Can you expand on this?

It's unclear if you see value in the "traditional" and it's not clear how your political barometer is calibrated, as we're still center-right as a whole.

Maybe if the ACA had included single-payer I'd say we were starting to lean left, but given the pro-business stands from both major parties, I don't see how you arrive at anywhere left of center.

 

[ElFenix]

republicans aren't going to win by becoming democrats lite.


if they want to win they're going to have to capture large portions of the hispanic vote. the religious stuff plays well in front of hispanic voters. deporting grandma does not. want the hispanic vote? propose actual immigration reform that doesn't deport grandma.

I think it is really simple. For the Republican's to gain they need to be seen as offering something constructive to voters instead of just not-Obama.

yup. to win you need to offer solutions to people's problems. the republicans haven't offered any real solutions to anyone's problems over the last several years (with the possible exception of the petit-rich) because they've been more concerned with just opposing obama than anything else.

They need to go back to the old stance on abortion with the exceptions. When you run candidates who are against all abortions rape will come up. Because that candidate will have to justify their no exception stance since it is not main steam. It is just an easy target the democrats can use.

i don't think they even need to make sure everyone agrees on exceptions. the 'legitimate rape' and 'gift from god' verbal vomit were shockingly offensive. if those guys had said something along the lines of 'an innocent life is an innocent life and deserves protection,' that wouldn't have given the dems anywhere near the ammunition. there's just nothing shockingly offensive with that statement.

 

[Blackjack200]

i don't think they even need to make sure everyone agrees on exceptions. the 'legitimate rape' and 'gift from god' verbal vomit were shockingly offensive. if those guys had said something along the lines of 'an innocent life is an innocent life and deserves protection,' that wouldn't have given the dems anywhere near the ammunition. there's just nothing shockingly offensive with that statement.

I agree with this, but I still think the whole rape/health-of-the-mother issue turns it from a winner to a loser for Republicans, much like late term abortions turned it around the other way a decade ago.

But to your point, if they just deflect the question they'll be able to keep the evangelicals without alienating as many moderates.

 

[Moonbeam]

How about when midterm elections get here in 2014 and Republicans bolster their grip on the House and add votes in the Senate.

The Romnesia is strong in this one.

 

[quest55720]

How about when midterm elections get here in 2014 and Republicans bolster their grip on the House and add votes in the Senate.

They might gain in the house but I won't count on the Senate yet. If they nominate a bunch of extreme candidates like they have done lately they might not gain a thing and even lose seats. Those extreme candidates already cost them at least 6 senate seats and a majority. A extreme candidate can work for a small house race but has been a disaster in state wide elections except the most red states that already have GOP senators.

 

[Blackjack200]

They might gain in the house but I won't count on the Senate yet. If they nominate a bunch of extreme candidates like they have done lately they might not gain a thing and even lose seats. Those extreme candidates already cost them at least 6 senate seats and a majority. A extreme candidate can work for a small house race but has been a disaster in state wide elections except the most red states that already have GOP senators.

nm, Democrats will likely lose seats in 2 years as noted below.

 

[monovillage]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2014

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/09/1144571/-2014-Senate-races

Safe D: 5 (5 D)
Likely D: 3 (3 D)
Lean D: 5 (5 D)
Toss Up: 6 (5 D, 1 R)
Lean R: 2 (1 R, 1 D*)
Likely R: 2 (2 R)
Safe R: 8 (8 R)

Obviously, this map is pretty rough for us, mostly due to the terrain. If we're lucky and Susan Collins retires we'll have two realistic pickup opportunities, if not then just one. If all lean states went the same way and toss ups got split, we'd lose 4 seats. But that's somewhat good news since it could possibly end up getting a lot worse. Let's just hope we do great on candidate recruitment, the GOP bombs at it, and it's a good national climate for us!

I'd like to hear your guys' comments to see which ratings you agree or disagree with! (And yes, I know it's way too early for this, but I want to see how these predictions hold a year or two from now ).

 

[werepossum]

Can you expand on this?

It's unclear if you see value in the "traditional" and it's not clear how your political barometer is calibrated, as we're still center-right as a whole.

Maybe if the ACA had included single-payer I'd say we were starting to lean left, but given the pro-business stands from both major parties, I don't see how you arrive at anywhere left of center.

I say center-left because Obama has been very outspoken about:
1. Taxing the rich at higher rates.
2. Providing more government services to more people, including illegals.
3. The "flaw" in our Constitution lacking "positive" rights (what government MUST do FOR you rather than what it MAY NOT do TO you.)
4. Ending coal and cutting back oil in favor of solar and wind energy (and proper tire inflation.)
5. Amnesty for illegal aliens and an end to enforcement of existing immigration law.
6. Rewarding government service with school loan forgiveness (meaning paid for by everyone working outside of government.)
7. Moving things like health care regulation to the federal government.
8. More federal control of primary education.
9. Preventing voter ID.
10. Government "spreading the wealth around" (which requires government taking the wealth and giving it to someone else.)
11. The federal government spending much more money.
12. Gay marriage and gay rights in general.
13. Drawing down the military.

None of that is remotely conservative. Yet Obama won fairly strongly. Ergo, center left, if not just plain left.

 

[jackstar7]

I say center-left because Obama has been very outspoken about:
1. Taxing the rich at higher rates.
2. Providing more government services to more people, including illegals.
3. The "flaw" in our Constitution lacking "positive" rights (what government MUST do FOR you rather than what it MAY NOT do TO you.)
4. Ending coal and cutting back oil in favor of solar and wind energy (and proper tire inflation.)
5. Amnesty for illegal aliens and an end to enforcement of existing immigration law.
6. Rewarding government service with school loan forgiveness (meaning paid for by everyone working outside of government.)
7. Moving things like health care regulation to the federal government.
8. More federal control of primary education.
9. Preventing voter ID.
10. Government "spreading the wealth around" (which requires government taking the wealth and giving it to someone else.)
11. The federal government spending much more money.
12. Gay marriage and gay rights in general.
13. Drawing down the military.

None of that is remotely conservative. Yet Obama won fairly strongly. Ergo, center left, if not just plain left.

So you don't base it on his actions of his first term. Why is that? When did we start going by what a politician says?

Also, a couple of those I'm not sure are left-right.

 

[Blackjack200]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2014

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/09/1144571/-2014-Senate-races

/facepalm

I accidently looked up 2016, not 2014. I'll edit my post.

 

[werepossum]

So you don't base it on his actions of his first term. Why is that? When did we start going by what a politician says?

Also, a couple of those I'm not sure are left-right.

LOL You've got a point there. But for actions - Obama did federalize health care regulation, and he did shut down off-shore drilling, and he has waged war on coal (as he said he would), and he did abolish Don't Ask Don't Tell and stop defending DOMA. Those last two I support, but they are traditionally left of center.

 

[nehalem256]

I say center-left because Obama has been very outspoken about:
1. Taxing the rich at higher rates.
2. Providing more government services to more people, including illegals.
3. The "flaw" in our Constitution lacking "positive" rights (what government MUST do FOR you rather than what it MAY NOT do TO you.)
4. Ending coal and cutting back oil in favor of solar and wind energy (and proper tire inflation.)
5. Amnesty for illegal aliens and an end to enforcement of existing immigration law.
6. Rewarding government service with school loan forgiveness (meaning paid for by everyone working outside of government.)
7. Moving things like health care regulation to the federal government.
8. More federal control of primary education.
9. Preventing voter ID.
10. Government "spreading the wealth around" (which requires government taking the wealth and giving it to someone else.)
11. The federal government spending much more money.
12. Gay marriage and gay rights in general.
13. Drawing down the military.

None of that is remotely conservative. Yet Obama won fairly strongly. Ergo, center left, if not just plain left.

Let us at least be fair. Anyone who thinks we can cut the deficit without (13) should be removed from office and appointed a legal guardian to look after them.

 

[werepossum]

Let us at least be fair. Anyone who thinks we can cut the deficit without (13) should be removed from office and appointed a legal guardian to look after them.

I was dividing things into left and right of our traditional political center, not judging what is smart or moral.

 

[Ausm]

LOL You've got a point there. But for actions - Obama did federalize health care regulation, and he did shut down off-shore drilling, and he has waged war on coal (as he said he would), and he did abolish Don't Ask Don't Tell and stop defending DOMA. Those last two I support, but they are traditionally left of center.

LOLwutt??

 

[Rainsford]

I agree with this, but I still think the whole rape/health-of-the-mother issue turns it from a winner to a loser for Republicans, much like late term abortions turned it around the other way a decade ago.

But to your point, if they just deflect the question they'll be able to keep the evangelicals without alienating as many moderates.

The problem is that there's not such thing as a free lunch in politics (or really anywhere else for that matter). Your idea might work, but it rests entirely on the idea that the extreme (to some) position Republicans have taken on abortion related issues isn't the REASON they enjoy such strong support among social conservatives. Same goes for immigration issues. The hard-line stance that's at least partially responsible for alienating Latino voters is at the same time an appealing position for some of the Republican base.

 

[OrByte]

3 pages and I'm still waiting for the OP or anyone to explain what these democratic "extremist views" are