Originally posted by: b0mbrman
I'm going to make a big but reasonable assumption: America's employers will choose to drop their coverage for employees. That's an option granted them under the legislation.
It is a big assumption. It's also an option granted to employers in the absence of legislation...
Employers are likely to choose the "pay" option, because their health-care costs are rising far faster than their payrolls, and they'd reap big savings by eliminating the administrative costs of providing benefits.
Costs are also increasing relative to payrolls in the absence of legislation, and they could also "reap big savings by eliminating the administrative costs of providing benefits" in the absence of legislation.
I won't comment yet one way or another, but it already looks pretty clear that this author is doing a poor job of isolating phenomena
unique to passage of HR 3200 or the Chairman's mark.
Nor does he do a great job of comparing outcomes with legislation vs. outcomes without legislation. That is, he doesn't say, "If HR 3200 passes, middle class families could end up paying $xxxx more than they do now in a worst-case scenario. If HR 3200 doesn't pass, middle class families could end up paying $yyyy more than they do now in a worst-case scenario. $xxxx is more/less than $yyyy."
Why that comparison matters