Obamacare hasn't led to an increase in "part-timing", says Urban Institute study

[Spungo]

More fun times in USSA as labor participation keeps going lower and lower

 

[fskimospy]

Spungo has gone from trying to lie to people with charts to just posting random ones. Not sure which is worse, although I'm not even sure if he understands the charts he's making.

I wonder how long it will take until he starts posting Venezuelan inflation rates or whatever like he did in another thread when he was shown to be full of shit.

 

[theeedude]

Just out of curiosity, maybe some resident Corporatist-Republicans can answer this, but are the doomsday Obamacare scenarios going to happen before or after trickle down economics starts working? Just want to get an idea of time scales we are dealing with here

 

[Sonikku]

Obamacare isn't the cause of the problem. The US is still in recession, so of course most new jobs are going to be minimum wage part time or temporary.

Seems like everything was going fine until Obama got elected.

 

[Spungo]

Spungo has gone from trying to lie to people with charts to just posting random ones. Not sure which is worse, although I'm not even sure if he understands the charts he's making.

I wonder how long it will take until he starts posting Venezuelan inflation rates or whatever like he did in another thread when he was shown to be full of shit.

When have you ever proven any of my points to be wrong? You always have some weird excuse to defend the fed, Obama, Keynesian economics, and trickle down economics. Why are food prices exploding? I said it's because the fed quadrupled the money supply in just a few years, which historically has led to high inflation. You and Legend said it's because California is dry, and countries like Costa Rica are located in California. I post charts showing the price of heating oil going through the roof. I say it's because of money printing. You said it's due to peak oil. I posted articles showing that US oil production is at an all time high, and you dismissed that completely. I said rising food and energy costs are a huge burden on the lower class. You and Legend said inflation was a good thing because it makes the S&P 500 go up 30% in one year (the Keynesian "wealth effect"), and it makes Venezuela's stock market go up 400% in one year, so the top 0.01% end up controlling a much larger percentage of a nation's wealth while average people see their savings become worthless (see that wealth inequality chart I posted). I said exploding food and energy costs were the reason retail is dying at an alarming rate. You and Legend said this was purely a coincidence; people having no money at the end of the day has absolutely nothing to do with the sharp decline in retail spending.
I said higher interest rates would boost the economy because it puts more money into the hands of old people who live on interest income. You said low interest rates are good because less money paid to old people means corporations and the government have more cash for things like airstrikes in Syria and record amounts of share repurchases, which end up going to the top 0.01%

You keep arguing for trickle down economics even though it has failed every time it has been tried. I said we should default on our debts, have widespread bankruptcies, and start fresh. You said we should double down and do bailouts. Iceland did my suggestion - they threw bankers in jail, they nationalized the banks, and they forgave large amounts of debt. Now Iceland is doing fine. USA and UK did bailouts, and it has been an absolute disaster. We're more in debt than ever before and labor participation is at a 38 year low.
Will you ever admit that Keynesian trickle down economics doesn't work? It doesn't matter how many billions of dollars you give to Lockheed Martin or how many billions of dollars people like David Tepper and George Soros make from speculating in the stock market with money borrowed at 0% interest. That money never trickles down.

 

[fskimospy]

When have you ever proven any of my points to be wrong? You always have some weird excuse to defend the fed, Obama, Keynesian economics, and trickle down economics.

There are so many basic facts that are wrong here, wrongful attributions, illogical conclusions, etc, it's hard to know where to start.

Why are food prices exploding? I said it's because the fed quadrupled the money supply in just a few years, which historically has led to high inflation. You and Legend said it's because California is dry, and countries like Costa Rica are located in California.

This is false. Food prices have "exploded" at a rate that equates to approximately 2.5% inflation since 2009. (105 to 117 over 5 years)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Jrx

So first you would be wrong about the prices "exploding". This further validates the Keynesian view that increases of the money supply in a liquidity trap do not translate into inflation.

I post charts showing the price of heating oil going through the roof. I say it's because of money printing. You said it's due to peak oil. I posted articles showing that US oil production is at an all time high, and you dismissed that completely.

More false statements. I have never mentioned anything to you about peak oil or dismissed any oil production. Heating oil prices today are approximately the same as they were in 2008, despite a quadrupling of the money supply. A further vindication for Keynesians.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/

I said rising food and energy costs are a huge burden on the lower class. You and Legend said inflation was a good thing because it makes the S&P 500 go up 30% in one year (the Keynesian "wealth effect")

More lies. I have never said inflation is not a good thing because it increases stock prices, inflation is a good thing because it reduces the real value of debt.

and it makes Venezuela's stock market go up 400% in one year, so the top 0.01% end up controlling a much larger percentage of a nation's wealth while average people see their savings become worthless (see that wealth inequality chart I posted).

Comparisons to Venezuela are ridiculous.

I said exploding food and energy costs were the reason retail is dying at an alarming rate. You and Legend said this was purely a coincidence; people having no money at the end of the day has absolutely nothing to do with the sharp decline in retail spending.

Retail sales have averaged an increase of close to 5% year on year in the last 5 years. The reality has been exactly the opposite of a sharp decline in retail spending.

Additionally, US retail has added more than a million jobs since the end of the recession. (although it lost a ton in the recession) Dying at an alarming rate? Strange that adding a million+ jobs = "dying".

I said higher interest rates would boost the economy because it puts more money into the hands of old people who live on interest income.

Only the ultra, ultra rich get a significant proportion of their income from interest:

You said low interest rates are good because less money paid to old people means corporations and the government have more cash for things like airstrikes in Syria and record amounts of share repurchases, which end up going to the top 0.01%

I of course said none of those things.

You keep arguing for trickle down economics even though it has failed every time it has been tried. I said we should default on our debts, have widespread bankruptcies, and start fresh.You said we should double down and do bailouts. Iceland did my suggestion - they threw bankers in jail, they nationalized the banks, and they forgave large amounts of debt. Now Iceland is doing fine.

Comparing the policy decisions and growth rates of a tiny country to the world's reserve country incredibly dishonest and obviously foolish. Additionally, compare GDP growth of the two countries:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries/IS-US?display=graph

You're full of shit.

USA and UK did bailouts, and it has been an absolute disaster. We're more in debt than ever before and labor participation is at a 38 year low.

And debt to GDP:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS/countries/IS-US?display=graph

You're full of shit again.

Will you ever admit that Keynesian trickle down economics doesn't work? It doesn't matter how many billions of dollars you give to Lockheed Martin or how many billions of dollars people like David Tepper and George Soros make from speculating in the stock market with money borrowed at 0% interest. That money never trickles down.

I'm quite confident that despite all this you won't change a shred of your thinking. All I can recommend to you is to shut the fuck up about things you don't understand.

 

[Tombstone1881]

Seems like everything was going fine until Obama got elected.

Really?

Look at 2009, the first day that Obama took office. The blue full time line had already bottomed out, and the red part time line had already hit new heights.

So you want to blame it on Obama BEFORE he even took office, while Bush was still president?

Obama's first budget didn't even take effect until October 2009. Since that time, there has been a steady uptick of the full time line, despite all the obtruction by the republicans. Could you imagine how great it would have been if the republicans would not have blocked everything Obama tried to do?

 

[ivwshane]

Really?

Look at 2009, the first day that Obama took office. The blue full time line had already bottomed out, and the red part time line had already hit new heights.

So you want to blame it on Obama BEFORE he even took office, while Bush was still president?

Obama's first budget didn't even take effect until October 2009. Since that time, there has been a steady uptick of the full time line, despite all the obtruction by the republicans. Could you imagine how great it would have been if the republicans would not have blocked everything Obama tried to do?

Don't get too upset, soniku is a very sarcastic poster. His posts are so good at mimicking the rights thinking that you miss the sarcasm.

 

[unokitty]

Facts are clear:

Record 92,269,000 Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Matches 36-Year Low

24,639,000: Record Number of Foreign-Born Hold Jobs in U.S.

Still, if you like your beliefs about Obama, you can keep your beliefs about Obama.

Uno

 

[werepossum]

Really?

Look at 2009, the first day that Obama took office. The blue full time line had already bottomed out, and the red part time line had already hit new heights.

So you want to blame it on Obama BEFORE he even took office, while Bush was still president?

Obama's first budget didn't even take effect until October 2009. Since that time, there has been a steady uptick of the full time line, despite all the obtruction by the republicans. Could you imagine how great it would have been if the republicans would not have blocked everything Obama tried to do?

Thy detector, she is perhaps having the property of being currently on the mute function, yes?

Facts are clear:

Record 92,269,000 Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Matches 36-Year Low

24,639,000: Record Number of Foreign-Born Hold Jobs in U.S.

Still, if you like your beliefs about Obama, you can keep your beliefs about Obama.

Uno

lol +1

Those are very telling numbers.

 

[werepossum]

Don't get too upset, soniku is a very sarcastic poster. His posts are so good at mimicking the rights thinking that you miss the sarcasm.

Her posts, actually, if memory serves.

 

[Oldgamer]

Oh, gee, another right-wing, anti-Obamacare talking point determined to be BS.

http://www.rwjf.org/content/dam/farm/reports/reports/2014/rwjf415284



But - just like the Second Coming - I'm sure the right will tell us to wait, wait, wait. Someday, the part-timing of America will happen. You just gotta believe.

Only the sane, rationale thinking people knew this.. LOL

 

[shortylickens]

Umm, havent several companies flat out admitted to shifting to part time employees since Obamacare was implemented?

 

[First]

Facts are clear:

Record 92,269,000 Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Matches 36-Year Low

24,639,000: Record Number of Foreign-Born Hold Jobs in U.S.

Still, if you like your beliefs about Obama, you can keep your beliefs about Obama.

Uno

Huh? Why does it matter what the number of foreign-born jobs are? Are these people somehow not Americans?

Oh, and I'd say it's pretty clear that at least 50-66% of the participation drop is simple baby boomer demographics. So still a problem, it's just a question of getting the magnitudes correct. Nothing a few years of good growth won't fix.

 

[Tombstone1881]

Don't get too upset, soniku is a very sarcastic poster. His posts are so good at mimicking the rights thinking that you miss the sarcasm.

Thanks! Being a newbie, I'm just getting to learn the personalities here. (Though some I have found to be fairly obvious right off the bat!)

I was at first thinking Sonikku was a left leaner, but then that post threw me. I have a short fuse when it comes to disingenuous statements. I had interpretted that sarcasm as a typical right wing BS common stance.

Thanks for setting me straight, and my apologies to Sonikku.

 

[werepossum]

Sure any of those things are possible, but where's the evidence?

Well - you could talk to people in this situation. Or you could Google some articles on the matter. Or just have an inkling of human nature.

But I'm betting you need a study by a reputable source, such as ThinkProgress. Or the DailyKooks.

 

[alcoholbob]

Huh? Why does it matter what the number of foreign-born jobs are? Are these people somehow not Americans?

Oh, and I'd say it's pretty clear that at least 50-66% of the participation drop is simple baby boomer demographics. So still a problem, it's just a question of getting the magnitudes correct. Nothing a few years of good growth won't fix.

It is caused by the baby boomer demographics. Their savings rate is much lower than later generations, due to being used to a high standard of living and trying to maintain that as their wealth erodes. They are keeping their jobs longer (ither because their retirement savings were wiped out in 08 or they never saved enough to start with) causing all-time highs in unemployment for those in the 20-35 demographic. I suppose when they die off this may open new jobs for young people. (Assuming their jobs arent replaced by automation or an expanded h1b program).

 

[fskimospy]

Well - you could talk to people in this situation. Or you could Google some articles on the matter. Or just have an inkling of human nature.

But I'm betting you need a study by a reputable source, such as ThinkProgress. Or the DailyKooks.

Lol nice try.

Where is your evidence.

 

[Spungo]

Oh, and I'd say it's pretty clear that at least 50-66% of the participation drop is simple baby boomer demographics. So still a problem, it's just a question of getting the magnitudes correct. Nothing a few years of good growth won't fix.

You should write a letter to the fed and tell them about this. None of their projections for labor participation predicted this. The actual labor participation rate is lower than their lowest projection.

This is false. Food prices have "exploded" at a rate that equates to approximately 2.5% inflation since 2009. (105 to 117 over 5 years)

Chocolate bars are 10-20% smaller but they cost the same. 5 pound bags of sugar are now 4 pounds but they cost the same. Cans of tuna have far less tuna but cost the same. Packages of bacon shrank from 1 pound down to 12 ounces, and the cost still went up. Going from 105 to 117 on a relative scale is not even close to reality.

More false statements. I have never mentioned anything to you about peak oil or dismissed any oil production. Heating oil prices today are approximately the same as they were in 2008, despite a quadrupling of the money supply. A further vindication for Keynesians.

Maybe it was just Legend who blamed it on peak oil. He also blamed gold price on Peak Gold, silver on Peak Silver, rubber on Peak Rubber, coffee on Peak Coffee. Any item I offered as evidence of inflation was discarded as Peak ____. Why is beef expensive? We're at Peek Bovines. Why is corn so expensive? Peak Corn. Why are the Costa Rican pineapples I buy much more expensive today? Peak Pineapples, caused by a lack of rain in California. Bananas from all around the world? Peak Bananas, caused by California.

Anyway, do the math on your own link. $2.35 in 2009 up to $3.40 today. The price is back to where it was in 2008, which we all agree was the largest credit bubble ever. That works out to roughly 7-8% inflation (5th root of 3.4/2.35), so about 4x higher than the official inflation rate. One could argue that today's oil prices are severely distorted because we are once again in the largest credit bubble in history, but that's exactly my point - we're in the largest credit bubble in history, and it's distorting the price of everything.

More lies. I have never said inflation is not a good thing because it increases stock prices, inflation is a good thing because it reduces the real value of debt.

But it also reduces your ability to pay your existing debts. I've explained this several times before. If you start at a condition where you can put a comfortable 10% of your income to pay down debt (which is far more than most Americans can pay), that means 90% of your income goes to cost of living. What happens if your cost of living goes up 10%? Now your cost of living is 99% of your income, and only 1% goes to paying bills. That simple 10% inflation effectively reduced debt payment from 10 down to 1. It doesn't matter if that 10% is in one year or if that 10% happens over the span of 3 or 4 years. The result is the same either way. You have less money in your pocket to pay debt. So here's a real question: your own fed numbers say the cost of heating oil has gone up 44% between 2009 and today. Do you personally get paid 44% more today than you did back in 2008 or 2009 for doing the same job? I don't, and I don't think anyone else does. What's interesting is that fast food workers have similar numbers. Going from around $10 per hour or less in 2008 to demanding $15 per hour today? That's about 50%. Did they pull that number out of a hat, or does that number genuinely reflect a rising cost of living? You'll notice fast food places don't have $1 menus anymore. The fast food employers are coming to the same numbers as well. $1 items suddenly cost $1.30 or $1.50. Are we all part of a huge conspiracy to say the cost of living has gone up, or is it more reasonable to assume that we independently came to the same data-driven conclusions?
This inability to pay debt is also reflected in the country's credit rating. 1/3 of Americans have a bill in collections. Is this a conspiracy involving millions of people vowing to not pay their bills, or was that condition forced on them as a result of reduced purchasing power?

Retail sales have averaged an increase of close to 5% year on year in the last 5 years. The reality has been exactly the opposite of a sharp decline in retail spending.

And yet we still have retail apocalypse and dead malls across America. This boils down to 2 plausible scenarios:
1) It's Amazon's fault (at least partially true).
2) The inflation rate is higher than 5%, so 5% yearly growth actually means retail is shrinking in real terms. This would agree with the fed's oil price numbers, fast food workers, and fast food employers. We can look at a few example of this.
Best Buy gross profit (revenue less cost of revenue): 12.5b in 2011, 11.0b in 2012, 9.3b in 2013, 9.7b in 2014. They're still down more than 20% from 2011, and that's nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation. What's going on here?
Staples gross profit: 6.5b in 2011, 6.7b in 2012, 6.5b in 2013, 6.0b in 2014. Staples has been basically flat then dropping a bit less than 10% at the end. Again, that's nominal dollars.
Target gross profit: 21.7b in 2011, 22b in 2012, 22.7b in 2013, 21.4b in 2014. They've gone nowhere over the last 4 years.
Where is all of the increased spending? Food and energy, and even those companies don't seem to be improving much.
Kroger. Revenue, the number you're talking about, went from 82.0b in 2011 to 98.4b in 2014. That's a 20% increase in revenue over 3 years, averaging 6.3% growth per year. So far this agrees with your numbers. What about the cost of that revenue? It went from 63.8b in 2011 to 78.1b in 2014. That's 22.4% over 3 years, averaging 7.0% increased expenses per year. That number agrees with what I just said. A company that sells food says the inflation rate on their income statement is 7%, which is once again in that ballpark of 7-8% we saw in heating oil prices.

So that's my case. My own personal experience, fast food workers, heating oil, and Kroger all say the inflation rate is somewhere between 5-10%. You can either believe we're all working together in the largest conspiracy ever to perpetuate this lie about high inflation, or the fed and BLS are the ones lying.


Anyway, this is a thread about healthcare. At least healthcare has no inflation.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Just out of curiosity, maybe some resident Corporatist-Republicans can answer this, but are the doomsday Obamacare scenarios going to happen before or after trickle down economics starts working? Just want to get an idea of time scales we are dealing with here

It's all moot as any day now he's going to finally declare himself dictator for life and the world as you know it will end. Sharia law for everyone, you betcha!

 

[Victorian Gray]

Don't get too upset, soniku is a very sarcastic poster. His posts are so good at mimicking the rights thinking that you miss the sarcasm.

Or so he'd (she'd?) have you think.

 

[werepossum]

Sure any of those things are possible, but where's the evidence?

Well, obviously this isn't as solid source as ThinkProgress or the Urban Institute, but the 2013 International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans had 16% of responding employers reveal plans to do this, specifically "have adjusted or plan to adjust hours so fewer employees qualify as full time."

http://www.ifebp.org/pdf/research/2103ACAImpactSurvey.pdf

In my own company we found that the hit from the ACA, though somewhat painful, wasn't nearly as bad as we had feared. (Or as our ombudsman had told us it would be.) I'm assuming that some of these companies discovered the same thing, so the actual number is probably less. But then, there are probably others not willing to say they are doing it, so YMMV. Either way, if you spent more time talking with low income workers you'd know this was happening. (Never thought you'd hear THAT from a Republican, did you?)

Of course, if the workers are in a Medicaid-expansion state they may not necessarily be harmed that much, essentially trading some hours' income for subsidized health care. Were I in that position and there was any way I could make the money work, I'd take that deal in a heart beat.

 

[fskimospy]

Lol you clown. When your nonsensical rambling are proven wrong you just make new ones.

 

[werepossum]

Lol you clown. When your nonsensical rambling are proven wrong you just make new ones.

lol Another impenetrable Shell of Knowing.

It escapes me why people assume anything complicated is all good or all bad. And it baffles me why people would be so foolish as to admit it in public. Maybe it's the anonymity of the Internet.

 

[fskimospy]

lol Another impenetrable Shell of Knowing.

It escapes me why people assume anything complicated is all good or all bad. And it baffles me why people would be so foolish as to admit it in public. Maybe it's the anonymity of the Internet.

Is this some sort of unintentional irony?