The black vote, which is traditionally low turnout by the way, is not going to make or break the general election. Clinton's strong support among old white voters and blue-collar working-class whites WILL make or break the election. There are many more of those voters in key swing states than there are blacks. These voters are very likely to go over to the old white guy, especially after the republican fear-mongering which will be very effective against Obama. Anyway, blacks are not going to vote for McCain so even a lower than normal turnout from them isn't going to make a big difference.
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Obama Wins Wyoming
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The black vote, which is traditionally low turnout by the way, is not going to make or break the general election. Clinton's strong support among old white voters and blue-collar working-class whites WILL make or break the election. There are many more of those voters in key swing states than there are blacks. These voters are very likely to go over to the old white guy, especially after the republican fear-mongering which will be very effective against Obama. Anyway, blacks are not going to vote for McCain so even a lower than normal turnout from them isn't going to make a big difference.
Wow. Just WOW. You have no fucking clue what you are talking about. The Black Vote is NECESSARY for the Dems to win the presidency.
Another side effect of the black vote not turning out, is Dems losing seats in the House.
The Dems fucking themselves could lead to a perfect storm come November with Republicans gaining House and Senate seats(not majorities though), and retaining the Presidency.
If you think the black vote doesnt matter, you are dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to politics.
BeauJangles
Lifer
You know what will make a big difference? Disenfranchising the popular vote of the democratic party and making them feel like their candidate was swindled out of the nomination. If the democratic party screws up enough and awards the nomination to the candidate (whichever it may be) who has the fewer pledged delegates all hell will break loose.
lopri
Elite Member
Obama has advantage in convention, for sure. The only way Clinton can have an argument towards supers is;
1. Lower the delegate # under 100, AND
2. Wins the popular votes
In my opinion, of course. And I think that's what Clinton is aiming. I personally think the final result will be likely both on the same ticket (whoever is on top), effectively negating this "If Clinton/Obama wins I will vote for McCain!" argument.
1. Lower the delegate # under 100, AND
2. Wins the popular votes
In my opinion, of course. And I think that's what Clinton is aiming. I personally think the final result will be likely both on the same ticket (whoever is on top), effectively negating this "If Clinton/Obama wins I will vote for McCain!" argument.
From Nebor-
Hardly- they get the same single vote as any other delegate. Like all the other delegates, they're basically chosen by their state party apparatus, but aren't pledged to any candidate.
What few of the critics of the Dems' methodology realize is that most state Dem organizations are more closely aligned with the DNC than with the DLC, the former being Obama's camp and the latter being Hillary's. They've chosen their superdelegates accordingly.
If anything, I suspect that the superdelegates will break more towards Obama than Clinton just on the basis of that.
I doubt that we'll see very many old white Dems break for McCain- they're Dems, after all, and have good reason to be disgusted with Repubs in general after the last 7 years. McCain can't pander to them while keeping the traditional repub constituencies at the same time.
Terrar? Wake up. The public is sick and tired of the repubs beating that dead horse. If anything, it's become so transparent that to invoke the usual fearmongering around that issue is to invite scorn... Many people have come to realize that they were ruthlessly manipulated in the wake of 9/11, and are rightfully resentful of that, and of the consequences, too...
Hardly- they get the same single vote as any other delegate. Like all the other delegates, they're basically chosen by their state party apparatus, but aren't pledged to any candidate.
What few of the critics of the Dems' methodology realize is that most state Dem organizations are more closely aligned with the DNC than with the DLC, the former being Obama's camp and the latter being Hillary's. They've chosen their superdelegates accordingly.
If anything, I suspect that the superdelegates will break more towards Obama than Clinton just on the basis of that.
I doubt that we'll see very many old white Dems break for McCain- they're Dems, after all, and have good reason to be disgusted with Repubs in general after the last 7 years. McCain can't pander to them while keeping the traditional repub constituencies at the same time.
Terrar? Wake up. The public is sick and tired of the repubs beating that dead horse. If anything, it's become so transparent that to invoke the usual fearmongering around that issue is to invite scorn... Many people have come to realize that they were ruthlessly manipulated in the wake of 9/11, and are rightfully resentful of that, and of the consequences, too...
Thump553
Lifer
I would like the concept of Hillary's intensely high negative ratings discussed in public. Sure she can attract her diehard fans, mostly consisting of nostaligic fans of Bill Clinton and rabid feminists. She does attract a decent core group of democrats, but will absolutely die in the general election when independents and repubs cast their real ballots.
I suspect that this is one of the major issues the superdelegates are considering. It boils down to whether political indebtedness owed to Bill Clinton will outweigh the nagging feeling that Hillary would get really skunked in a general election.
For those so bent out of shape that the dem primary process is continuing so long, chill out. It will only make Obama stronger and prove he is presidential material. All this talk about destruction of the party, tearing the country apart etc., is way over the top.
I suspect that this is one of the major issues the superdelegates are considering. It boils down to whether political indebtedness owed to Bill Clinton will outweigh the nagging feeling that Hillary would get really skunked in a general election.
For those so bent out of shape that the dem primary process is continuing so long, chill out. It will only make Obama stronger and prove he is presidential material. All this talk about destruction of the party, tearing the country apart etc., is way over the top.
homercles337
Diamond Member
With McCain following on the coat tails of the last 7 years of disaster i would say that there is NO way McCain can win.
canadageek
Senior member
YES WE CAN!
chowderhead
Platinum Member
Blacks have turned out in similar percentage of the electorate relative to the 2004 primary in many states i.e. Texas, California, Ohio, etc . They have turned out more heavily in the South. Obama margins are helped because he wins 90% of the black vote. Hispanics are the ones turning out in record numbers. You can make the same argument that Obama probably cannot win if older women don't turn out for him or Hispanics don't vote for him in sufficient numbers since right now it looks like he is relaying on a Southwest and Virginia strategy. The Catholic vote is also a swing category going with the popular vote winner in at least the last few elections. Catholics are voting for Clinton 2-1.
BeauJangles
Lifer
Seems like the Obama fans have really struck a nerve with you.
Tell us how you really feel.
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