Face the facts, if Obama continues GWB type policy in Afghanistan, he is going to keep getting GWB type results.
The number of extra troops sent in is almost irrelevant because US military doctrine states we need 620,000 troops to run a credible text book military occupation in Afghanistan. No matter what options Obama chooses tonight, Nato will be left way way way too short of enough troops. And given the corrupt state of the Afghan army and police, they are not any additive factor in the equation, and as such, they are worse than useless.
Obama is going to have to come up with a almost brilliant and innovative plan to start winning in Afghanistan, and I for one, will reserve comment until he lays it out in his press conference to the American people. And even then, that is not the point, because the arbiter of results will be the Afghan people. And its the Afghan people who will collectively decide to buy it or reject it by their actions.