If we have 75,000 deployable troops,then how did we get 300,000 troops in Iraq for the invasion?
Why not just organize a higher troop count? People need jobs. That takes a lot of supply and support.
I dont think not having enough troops is a fallacy. We have plenty of troops in Europe right now. Pull all the troops out of Germany and Korea.
30,000 is the surge that we moved into Iraq.
Understand that there are all kinds of troops required in conducting a war as Obama is proposing to fight. 30,000, 40,000, 100,000 - the number are meaningless without a comprehension of who does what.
The Special Forces and Civil Affairs units that are most effective in this kind of conflict are not numerous. 80%+ of all available forces of this type are already deployed or rotating through Iraq and Afghanistan. That leaves very, very few to be deployed to other hot spots, ie Central and South America, Africa, Asia, etc.
It takes 2-3 years to build up the skill set of a SF trooper to where they are unit effective. And Obama plans to have us out in 18 months or so?
CA units are almost all US Army Reserve and are usually employed as high level command coordinators at battalion/brigade/division (S5/G5 staff) not field operators. You will have to start with people who have 10+ years of applicable civilian experience, add a year or two of CA branch specific training and then train them up for special operations in isolated areas. You can't ramp them up any faster than SF.
Of course, leaving Iraq on an expedited schedule will allow for re-deployments to some extent. But many of those in Iraq have been there for quite a while, are heavily involved with the transition in Iraq and at the end are due for rotation out of the whole AO. Adding another 18 months in the field isn't gong to happen, at least for another year.
Line troops are OK for security missions, particularly in the cities, and patrolling operations for a show of force. You will see a variety of low level fights, significant casualties on both sides, and a lot of mistakes.
I am most concerned at the "training" of indigenous forces that is being forecast. The Afghan Army and police forces will have to pull from a population that does not speak English, is overwhelmingly illiterate and of mixed loyalties. I seriously doubt they can hit the projected goals in three years, much less 18 months.