Obama Makes General Election Preparations As Indiana Polls Shows Tied Race

[jpeyton]

Obama must have consulted with a mathematics Ph.D., combined it with his knowledge of super delegate psychology, and come to the conclusion that he has nothing to lose by beginning general election preparations now. McCain already has enough of a head-start, and Hillary will be a non-factor unless she fishes a 10-point win out of a dead-even race in Indiana with roughly 10 days until the primary.

Polls also show Democratic voters are beginning to realize this primary season has gone on too long, and has gone too negative (Hillary? Bueller?).

Text

In the wake of his Pennsylvania loss, Barack Obama?s campaign has revealed two major steps towards a general election operation ? both usually undertaken by presumptive presidential nominees.

On Friday, the campaign officially announced an ambitious, 50-state voter registration program designed to boost Democratic registration ? already reaching record levels in many states ? with an eye towards November.

On the conference call discussing the effort, Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand confirmed a report on The Page that the Obama team had entered into a joint fundraising operation with the Democratic National Committee.

The DNC could use the help. In a year when most Democratic campaign committees are vastly out-raising their Republican counterparts, the DNC ? which had a little more than $5 million cash on hand, according to its most recently filed Federal Elections Commission report ? is lagging far behind a cash-rich Republican National Committee?s $31 million war chest.

John McCain has launched a similar fundraising partnership with the RNC ? but it did not debut until after he became the presumptive GOP nominee.

Hildebrand also said that Hillary Clinton?s campaign had held similar discussions with the national party, although the two sides had yet to come to an agreement.

?It is something that we are moving forward with and as we understand it the D.N.C. has initiated those conversations with the Clinton campaign as well.?

Joint committees are usually formed after there is a de facto nominee. In contrast to the strict fundraising limits imposed on the candidates, parties are able to raise more than 10 times as much ? allowing them to assume some election-related activities and costs that would otherwise be undertaken by the campaign.

Text

Three days after Sen. Hillary Clinton's win in Pennsylvania, a new CNN "poll of polls" shows a dead heat in Indiana ahead of the May 6 primary, the next crucial battleground that could decide the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sen. Barack Obama is tied with Clinton at 45 percent, with 10 percent of respondents unsure, according to the Indiana Democratic poll, an average of campaign surveys.

The poll of polls consists of three surveys: Research 2000 (April 23-24), ARG (April 23-24), and The Indianapolis Star (April 20-23). All polls include interviews conducted after the Pennsylvania primary, which Clinton won Tuesday by about 55 percent to 45 percent.

The Research 2000 poll released Friday showed Obama leading Clinton by 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent. The candidates are statistically tied given that poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

The survey also shows both candidates are strong with constituencies that backed them in other states: Clinton easily wins among senior citizens and women, while Obama has the advantage with young voters.

With the campaign settled into a seemingly endless slugfest, roughly two-thirds of people in a separate survey done by the Pew Research Center said the race has gone on "too long."

Half of those polled said the campaign has become "too negative." And the candidates aren't the only ones fighting fatigue: More than a third said the closest race in a generation is "too dull."

Two months ago, 28 percent of voters in the same survey said the race was too negative, and one in four said it was too dull.

The unresolved contest also seems to be leaving Democrats feeling a little shell-shocked. Two months ago, roughly one in five Democrats thought the campaign was too negative, but the number now has risen to 50 percent, according to the Pew survey. VideoWatch CNN's Candy Crowley on the Democrats' race to the finish line »

With nine primaries left before June 3, Indiana and North Carolina are the next front in the Democratic nomination fight. The May 6 contests have 187 combined delegates at stake.

Clinton's advisers appear to be focusing most efforts on Indiana, a state with lunch-bucket demographics that have proven friendlier to the former first lady. Indiana has 72 delegates.

One of Clinton's strongest supporters calls the state a "must win" for the senator from New York.

"I think it's going to be very difficult for Sen. Clinton if she loses both in Indiana and North Carolina," James Carville said Wednesday on CNN's "Larry King Live."

"If she wins in Indiana, it's going to cause some people to turn up and look around. I think it's a very important contest."

Clinton was in North Carolina early Friday, campaigning in Jacksonville, before heading to Indiana for events in Bloomington, Gary and East Chicago.

Obama has a significant lead in the polls in North Carolina and is heavily favored to win there.

Obama owes his victories throughout the nomination battle to African-Americans, young voters, upscale whites and independent voters.

Those voters come in bunches in North Carolina, and their ranks are growing.

Since the beginning of January, nearly 65,000 new voters between the ages of 18 and 24 have registered in the state as Democrats or unaffiliated voters. More than 67,000 new African-American voters have registered over the same period.

African-Americans are expected to make up around 40 percent of the primary electorate, giving Obama a healthy starting point in his chase for a large share of the state's 115 pledged delegates.

Obama is likely to capture votes in the Research Triangle, a thriving swath of counties in and around the Raleigh-Durham area filled with highly educated tech workers and medical researchers.

Clinton advisers acknowledge the tall odds there.

Clinton campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe said earlier this week he sees North Carolina as "competitive," but the campaign's state director, Ace Smith, already has lowered expectations, saying he sees no chance for a victory.

At an event last week in Winston-Salem, Smith said a Clinton win in North Carolina "would be the biggest upset of the century."

Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, made it clear Thursday that she thinks Clinton and Obama shouldn't run on a joint ticket this fall.

"I don't think it's a good idea," she said on "Larry King Live." "First of all, the candidate, whoever he or she may be, should choose his or her own vice presidential candidate. I think that's appropriate. That's where you would see the comfort level, not only how to run but how to govern the country.

"And there's plenty of talent to go around to draw upon for a good, strong ticket. I'm not one of those who thinks that that's a good ticket."

 

[mxyzptlk]

If I understand correctly that Hillary needs to win every remaining primary by a large margin and that North Carolina is all but a lock for Obama then.. why is she even bothering? Even her campaign staff is saying theres no chance for victory in NC, doesn't that necessarily indicate that she has no chance for winning the nomination? I mean even less than she did before when the math clearly indicated that she could never capture enough delegates to catch/pass Obama.

I don't understand the math fully, so maybe someone can explain it to me.. at what point does it become absolutely impossible, if we haven't already passed that point, for her to defeat Obama. At the moment, I still here things like, "she would need to win every nomination by a large margin.." which, while improbable, isn't exactly impossible.. I mean, maybe Obama gets found with 23, under aged prostitutes at a Hamas rally or something else equally devastating (and imaginary).. At what point does it become, "no Hillary, there aren't enough delegates left, even if you won them ALL, for you to win. Give it up!"???

 

[jpeyton]

It's already technically impossible.

She's waiting for Obama to make another "bitter" comment.

The ONLY chance she has right now is for Obama's wheels to come off.

So she's sticking around, waiting for it to happen.

If Obama doesn't slip by May 6th, it's over for her. If he does slip, she lives to campaign another week.

 

[Lemon law]

Face the facts, Indiana has been a big loser in Manufacturing jobs and that is where Hillary scores against Obama. As it is, Indiana will be somewhat the tie breaker between North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Its somewhat Obama's best chance to seal the deal by proving he can beat Hillary on the jobs issue. Its real close now and the stakes are huge.

All eyes are on Indiana for a change. Its more a heartland of the nation State than Ohio or Pennsylvania. To win in 08, the dems need the at least a few red states, the blue states will stay blue regardless of who wins the democratic nomination.

 

[Bitek]

Obama needs to spend some time off the trail brushing up on issues and debate material. His last debate performance looked like he was quite unprepared. Its going to kill him once things get really testy, and he needs be be able to enunciate his point succinctly and conveniently for soundbites for the next days news. I'm all for the deep thinker, but you can't do that shit in a debate and expect things to get played well. Hillary (yuk) is a master at this, and thus has managed the debates much better. McCain isn't as good as the Beast, but the contrasts will be sharper and he'll come like a hammer.

 

[Buck Armstrong]

I just happened to be in downtown Indianapolis for an unrelated reason the day Hillary flew in on her broom. Only 100-200 people appeared in an outdoor venue that could easily accomodate thousands, and they were ALL white women who appeared to be on lunch break.

Indiana is not looking good for Hillary.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Buck Armstrong
Only 100-200 people appeared in an outdoor venue that could easily accomodate thousands, and they were ALL white women who appeared to be on lunch break.

:laugh: That's great news.

Obama was packing a crowd of 2,000 in Kokomo, and the Hildabeast can't pull more than a few hundred in Indianapolis.

 

[Lemon law]

Don't judge Indiana by voter turn out at events. Not when Indiana tends to be a hot bed of political apathy. The vast bulk of the voters do not do political events. But there is a lot of deep seated anger at the way things are going, and the candidate who can hit the right note is going to win. And its going to be a campaign waged on television ads.

Indiana has not gone democratic in the general election since 1964, but right now, Republicans are running scared. They have a very unpopular Republican governor and the mood seems to be throw the rascals out.

Change and jobs will be the issues and last I heard Hillary has a one point lead at 47 to 46. With 10 days to go, its anyone's race.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Hafen
Obama needs to spend some time off the trail brushing up on issues and debate material. His last debate performance looked like he was quite unprepared. Its going to kill him once things get really testy, and he needs be be able to enunciate his point succinctly and conveniently for soundbites for the next days news. I'm all for the deep thinker, but you can't do that shit in a debate and expect things to get played well. Hillary (yuk) is a master at this, and thus has managed the debates much better. McCain isn't as good as the Beast, but the contrasts will be sharper and he'll come like a hammer.

That was a truly awful debate. But Charles Gibson has always been extremely hostile against Obama, that's why the debate was all about petty questions. No doubt it was the worst of the 21 debates.