Obama, CAFE and the End of Performance Cars

[Squisher]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1
Can you put a turbo and NAAAAWWWWSSSS on your hybrid? 😛

Sure, we can even do cylinder cutoffs so that it only runs on one cylinder at highway speeds.

Don't mind the vibration.

 

[InflatableBuddha]

Originally posted by: mwmorph

Originally posted by: TehMac
Also, who says gas is running out? The media? I believe there is a theory going around that while it is true some gasoline is indeed derived from fossil-fuels, but others speculate that some oil actually can be made by the compression and is seeped up from the athenosphere of the earth.

I don't know where you get your numbers but the industry numbers reflect that oil is a finite resource that will be running out.

CERA reports the top 811 oil fields in an average decline of 4.5% pr year. IEA reports 5.1% for the top 800.

Production has outstripped new discoveries since 1980.

The world's largest oil field, Ghawar (responsible for 50% of oil output in Saudi Arabia) has already peaked a according to the Saudis. The Saudis report that thy have a composite national decline of 2% production pr year.

Kuwait reports that their Burgan, the world's 2nd largest oil field peaked in 2005.

Mexico's largest field, Cantrell, peaked in 2003. Th introduces new technologies like nitrogen injection to increase yields but the decline is still 8% per year.

World population grows faster than oil production, production per capita peaked in 1979.

We've pretty much plateaued oil production wise, production trends were pretty much flat 2005-2008

Not only that, but the oil we're finding every year, the new fields, not only are we finding fewer and fewer but they are harder and harder to reach. Jack2 well was a huge discovery in 2006. Problem is it take 8.5km of pipe to reach under miles of water and seafloor and it only accounts for 2 years of US, not world but US oil use.

If oil would magically seep out from below in enough quantities to replenish what we're using, we're not seeing it and the numbers aren't there. If what you're proposing is abiogenesis, the scientific community still sees that as a fringe theory because of the massive scientific evidence for the biogenic process theory.

Of course we could always look to nonconventional oil production methods, but that still means a change in oil as we know it. These unconventional sources such as oil shale require vastly more energy to produce and will cost more.

Even the most optimistic estimates conventional oil production will peak by 2020. The saudis and many others believe that our maximum capacity was December 2005. Nonconventional sources can take over some of that but because of cost and production issues, cheap oil wont be around like this for much longer.

Is it the end of the world? No
Will peak oil mean we're out? No
But it will change things. Suddenly $2 gas is out of the question, cost of living will go up a bit, economic growth in developing nations will slow by a bit.
It's not like "OMG Get the Shotgun ready for the apocalypse", but people will have to adapt over time to a new economy that cant rely on cheap oil from everything from fuel to polymers.

While you're correct that oil is a finite resource, we will not actually run out of it. The issue is, as you've noted, that remaining oil is far more expensive to extract than in years past.

We will eventually reach a crisis point when oil costs more to extract and refine than the revenue that can be recouped by selling it. There will still be oil, but it will become exponentially more expensive as production decreases rapidly (it's no longer cost-effective to extract and refine it) but demand continues to grow.

New extraction and refining technology has delayed this crisis point, but it cannot be postponed indefinitely.

Hopefully we will have moved on to other sustainable energy sources by that point.

 

[DrMrLordX]

No, what it means is that you want something high-performance in the future, it's going to have to weigh 2k lbs or less and have an overdrive gear for highway cruising. The sacrifice will be in safety, and in some cases, handling (since AWD sedans will probably leave the market). Interiors may also need to take a back-seat.

What I estimate we'll see are a lot of sleek, light turbo 4s with 200-250 hp on fwd platforms. Hopefully we'll see a reduction in wheel size because 18-20" rims do not scream fuel economy, and let's face it, you don't need huge brakes on a car that's 2k pounds (or less).

What happens to the tires is anybody's guess, but the author of the article linked by the OP is not really on-the-money when it comes to the handling potential of low-rolling-resistance tires. Modern low-rolling-resistance tires rely more on new materials and novel tread-patterns than anything else.

 

[TehMac]

DrMrLordX, that is very true--big brakes are not needed for lighter automobiles, plus, with carbon fiber brakes and steel brakes, I'm sure a brake can be fitted that might be just as effective as the huge ones fitted now are. But I know very little about brakes, so I'm not sure how it works.

However, I do like 18's. I think 19's should be the max, but my neighbor with the DBS just showed me his new BMW with 21" rims on it. --_--

 

[Fenixgoon]

Originally posted by: TehMac
DrMrLordX, that is very true--big brakes are not needed for lighter automobiles, plus, with carbon fiber brakes and steel brakes, I'm sure a brake can be fitted that might be just as effective as the huge ones fitted now are. But I know very little about brakes, so I'm not sure how it works.

However, I do like 18's. I think 19's should be the max, but my neighbor with the DBS just showed me his new BMW with 21" rims on it. --_--

one of the issues with carbon brakes is that they actually need to get to a certain temperature range to be effective, so in some cases they will be worse than standard iron brakes.

 

[TehMac]

Yes, good point about the carbon brakes.

 

[Zenmervolt]

Originally posted by: Fenixgoon

Originally posted by: TehMac
DrMrLordX, that is very true--big brakes are not needed for lighter automobiles, plus, with carbon fiber brakes and steel brakes, I'm sure a brake can be fitted that might be just as effective as the huge ones fitted now are. But I know very little about brakes, so I'm not sure how it works.

However, I do like 18's. I think 19's should be the max, but my neighbor with the DBS just showed me his new BMW with 21" rims on it. --_--

one of the issues with carbon brakes is that they actually need to get to a certain temperature range to be effective, so in some cases they will be worse than standard iron brakes.

I'm thinking that he may have meant ceramic brakes rather than carbon brakes. Of course, ceramic discs are ridiculously expensive right now, but hopefully they will come down in price with time.

ZV

 

[TehMac]

I was thinking of em all. Carbon, Ceramic, Steel, whatever. 😛


I think a lighter car will result in need for lighter brakes. However, I still think they're a good thing to have.

 

[drum]

I will be waiting for the 2017 Chevrolet Pelosi model year personally. :laugh:

 

[MotF Bane]

At first I thought about organizing a protest. You know, 600 performance cars thundering down Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C., all running open exhausts to be extra obnoxious. Then they all gather at the steps of the Capitol and do a simultaneous burnout so massive it blots out the sun and Senator Harry Reid is left picking little balls of rubber out of his teeth for weeks. But realistically, well, that ain't gonna happen.

:laugh:

 

[ElFenix]

another thing that is going on right now is that the makes are building up CAFE credits.

2008 CAFE ratings:

Toyota 36.4

Honda 35.1

Hyundai 33.8

Kia 33.4

Nissan 32.2

Ford 30.0

General Motors 29.8

Chrysler 29.5

VW 28.8

BMW 27.4

Mercedes-Benz 26.4

(Source: NHTSA Summary of Fuel Economy Performance)

pretty dramatic change from 2007, reflecting changing buying habbits

Toyota's fleet average, which covers everything from its Tundras to its Solaras, came out to 29.69mpg. Honda came in second with 29.47mpg while Hyundai finished third at 29.39mpg. The close battle at the top shows how much Toyota's full-line offerings influence the final total, with the large trucks and SUVs balancing out the hybrids it offers. Honda, which only offers a handful of full-size SUVs and minivans and a single pickup truck, came very close, while Hyundai, which offers no pickup trucks at all, focusing primarily on passenger cars, managed to get within 0.3mpg without a single hybrid in its lineup.

As expected, U.S. domestic manufacturers trailed significantly, with GM scoring the best of the three at 25.16mpg, Ford in second with 25.15mpg and Chrysler bringing up the tail at 23.97mpg.

the EPA ratings are so different from the CAFE ratings that edmunds estimates that the car rating is met with a 29 MPG combined for cars and 23 MPG combined for trucks.