Nvidia: Tegra 4 pushed back full quarter

[ams23]

http://www.geek.com/mobile/qualcomm-unveils-2-3ghz-snapdragon-s800-mobile-chip-1535125/

The S800 SoC will have an integrated LTE baseband modem on die. The quad-core S600 SoC (and quad-core S4 Pro SoC) does not have an integrated LTE baseband modem on die, but can be used with a separate LTE baseband modem processor just like Tegra 4.

 

[ams23]

60% of Nvidia Tegra sales in 2012 have been due to Google Nexus 7. those are very difficult numbers to replace.

Technically this is incorrect. NVIDIA shipped ~ 32 million Tegra SoC units in FY2013 [Fiscal Year 2013]. The Nexus 7 is estimated to have accounted for at most ~ 6 million of those units during this same time period (note that the Nexus 7 didn't start selling until ~ July 2012 IIRC). This loss would be significant, but not the end of the world, because NVIDIA will gain some new tablet business with Tegra 4 in Q2-Q4 FY2014, and NVIDIA will gain significant new smartphone business with Tegra 4i in Q4 FY2014. So the overall prognosis with respect to Tegra units shipped in FY2014 is similar to FY2013 (with actual growth more likely to happen in FY2015). And just to clarify: Fiscal Year 2013 = Feb 2012 - Jan 2013 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2014 = Feb 2013 - Jan 2014 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2015 = Feb 2014 - Jan 2015 Calendar Mth/Year.

 

[blackened23]

Technically this is incorrect. NVIDIA shipped ~ 32 million Tegra SoC units in FY2013 [Fiscal Year 2013]. The Nexus 7 is estimated to have accounted for at most ~ 6 million of those units during this same time period (note that the Nexus 7 didn't start selling until ~ July 2012 IIRC). This loss would be significant, but not the end of the world, because NVIDIA will gain some new tablet business with Tegra 4 in Q2-Q4 FY2014, and NVIDIA will gain significant new smartphone business with Tegra 4i in Q4 FY2014. So the overall prognosis with respect to Tegra units shipped in FY2014 is similar to FY2013 (with actual growth more likely to happen in FY2015). And just to clarify: Fiscal Year 2013 = Feb 2012 - Jan 2013 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2014 = Feb 2013 - Jan 2014 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2015 = Feb 2014 - Jan 2015 Calendar Mth/Year.

Well, you seem to have access to a lot of information that we don't, where did you get this information?

 

[notty22]

Most negative comments were also voiced about T3 and it ended up in high profile devices. Nexus7 / Surface.
edit: Left Charlie's parrots out of it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1278131-how-tegra-is-lifting-nvidia-s-outlook?source=google_news

How Does Higher Tegra Revenue Impact Nvidia’s Valuation?​

While Nvidia earns approximately 18% of its revenue from Tegra processors, the division does not have a significant impact on its valuation. Nvidia is relatively new to this business and thus has to incur significant investment to increase its foothold in the mobile market. It currently earns negative operating margins from the Tegra division, and while we believe that margins will turn positive going forward, we estimate the same to remain lower compared to Nvidia’s other business segments.​

Nevertheless, higher Tegra revenues has helped cushion the persistent weakness in the PC market. While most of its competitors including Intel, AMD and Texas Instruments posted annual decline in 2012, Nvidia saw 7% earnings growth during the same period.

We believe that the introduction of Nvidia’s next generation Tegra 4 family – Tegra 4 and Tegra 4i – will help it make a deeper foray in the mobile market, especially smartphones. Nvidia claims that it has already scored more design wins for Tegra 4 compared to the total design wins for Tegra 3.

 

[ams23]

Well, you seem to have access to a lot of information that we don't, where did you get this information?

LOL, I got all this info from a Google News search. See here: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57...mobile-chip-business-hits-a-wall-with-growth/

 

[raghu78]

Technically this is incorrect. NVIDIA shipped ~ 32 million Tegra SoC units in FY2013 [Fiscal Year 2013]. The Nexus 7 is estimated to have accounted for at most ~ 6 million of those units during this same time period (note that the Nexus 7 didn't start selling until ~ July 2012 IIRC). This loss would be significant, but not the end of the world, because NVIDIA will gain some new tablet business with Tegra 4 in Q2-Q4 FY2014, and NVIDIA will gain significant new smartphone business with Tegra 4i in Q4 FY2014. So the overall prognosis with respect to Tegra units shipped in FY2014 is similar to FY2013 (with actual growth more likely to happen in FY2015). And just to clarify: Fiscal Year 2013 = Feb 2012 - Jan 2013 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2014 = Feb 2013 - Jan 2014 Calendar Mth/Year; Fiscal Year 2015 = Feb 2014 - Jan 2015 Calendar Mth/Year.

i should have mentioned that was 60% of Tegra 3 sales. the source was the digitimes article

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130318PD225.html

do you have any source to backup the 32 million Tegra chips sold in FY2013. still the lack of any high volume design wins for Tegra 4 is a definite setback. Even with a Tegra 4i (with integrated LTE) which allows Nvidia to sell into a much larger portion of the phone market they are predicting flat revenue. what does that say ? Also Nvidia wants to pull in T4i and push out Tegra 4. This indicates that Nvidia sees T4i more important to meet FY 2014 revenue targets. If Tegra 4 had lot of design wins why would they delay the release. It means Tegra 4 will not pull in the same kind of revenue that Tegra 3 does. Losing Google Nexus and Microsoft Surface RT which were the bulk of Tegra 3 volume means Tegra 4 will be hit badly.

 

[ams23]

do you have any source to backup the 32 million Tegra chips sold in FY2013.

See the link I posted above. Keep in mind that Tegra SoC's are sold in tablets, smartphones, automotive, and embedded markets.

Even with a Tegra 4i (with integrated LTE) which allows Nvidia to sell into a much larger portion of the phone market they are predicting flat revenue. what does that say ?

That doesn't say much other than what we already know. Tegra 4 will not be available for one full fiscal quarter (Q1) in FY2014, and Tegra 4i will not be available for three full fiscal quarters (Q1-Q3) in FY2014, so achieving flat revenue is probably about the most that one can expect.

Also Nvidia wants to pull in T4i and push out Tegra 4. This indicates that Nvidia sees T4i more important to meet FY 2014 revenue targets.

Tegra 4 and Tegra 4i serve different markets, with the former serving tablets and very high end smartphones, and the latter serving mainstream smartphones. I doubt that NVIDIA "wanted" to push out Tegra 4, but they felt it was worthwhile to do in order to push forward Tegra 4i. Tegra 4 will still be available well before Tegra 4i due to the time it takes for carrier certifications, so it is not a bad tradeoff.

 

[Imouto]

Most sources say that Nvidia was strugging to ship 25 million T3s for 2012. If you wanna keep that FY figures by Nvidia standards it's OK, by your own 32kk T3s shipped Nexus 7 accounted for 20% of those chips in just 6 months. I'll leave to you how much it would account for a full year.

And cars? Seriously? You mean the Tesla S model with 5k units sold? Embedded like the Ouya? That 60k units sold console?

Now please stop downplaying losing big contracts like the Nexus 7 or the Surface.

 

[ams23]

The slide detailing fiscal qtr Tegra unit shipments is pretty clear. The Tegra business as a whole across all segments had ~ 32 million unit shipments for fiscal year 2013 and ~ 23.5 million unit shipments for fiscal year 2012. Yes, losing the Nexus 7 refresh will have a significant impact on unit shipments in fiscal year 2014, but that will be offset by new T4 tablet design wins and new T4i smartphone design wins in fiscal year 2014, which is why growth is expected to be flat during this time period.

 

[sontin]

And Google has more than only one tablet. Maybe nVidia will get the Nexus 10 deal this year.

 

[Imouto]

The slide detailing fiscal qtr Tegra unit shipments is pretty clear. The Tegra business as a whole across all segments had ~ 32 million unit shipments for fiscal year 2013 and ~ 23.5 million unit shipments for fiscal year 2012. Yes, losing the Nexus 7 refresh will have a significant impact on unit shipments in fiscal year 2014, but that will be offset by new T4 tablet design wins and new T4i smartphone design wins in fiscal year 2014, which is why growth is expected to be flat during this time period.

Nvidia has to invest in R&D. Tegra division with 32kk units shipped last year (NV's FY) lost a shitload of money. The bleeding will be even worse with T3 till really late this year. Growth going to be flat is just wishful thinking.

And Google has more than only one tablet. Maybe nVidia will get the Nexus 10 deal this year.

If Samsung is going to make it again I doubt it honestly.

 

[ams23]

Nvidia has to invest in R&D. Tegra division with 32kk units shipped last year (NV's FY) lost a shitload of money.

Considering that Tegra is still a nascent business, the losses are expected. The losses were as follows: $49 million for FY2011, $60 million for FY2012, $157 million for FY2013. Keep in mind that a significant amount of the losses in FY2013 were due to the expense in bringing a 4G LTE baseband modem processor to market. Expenses due to the LTE baseband processor business were incurred in FY2013, but revenues on this business will not be realized until FY2014. Moving forward, in FY2014 and beyond, NVIDIA will heavily leverage their substantial GPU R&D investments when developing Tegra processors.

Growth going to be flat is just wishful thinking.

Flat revenue growth for FY2014 is just common sense, since the loss in Tegra 3 tablet business will be offset by the growth in Tegra 4 tablet business and the growth in Tegra 4i smartphone business.

 

[NTMBK]

Don't know why this is in Video. T4 is an SoC, not a GPU.
-ViRGE

You could argue- "Don't know why this is in CPU, T4 is an SoC, not a CPU." Especially given that the Tegra4 is just standard ARM CPU cores, paired with NVidia custom GPU parts- the GPU is by far the more interesting portion of the SoC!

 

[Raghu]

Lot more information in the PDFs here ("2013 Analyst Day Presentations")

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=116466&p=irol-IRHome

Transcript - Requires registration, or maybe not

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133...nvestor-day-conference-transcript?part=single

 

[scannall]

"On time" isn't something nVidia has ever been known for. By the time the Tegra 4 actually ships it will have already been passed by.

 

[pablo87]

Nvidia is trying to sideline the main issue here. that Tegra 4 does not have big design wins. Qualcomm has won the design for the next Google Nexus and next Microsoft Surface RT. 60% of Nvidia Tegra sales in 2012 have been due to Google Nexus 7. those are very difficult numbers to replace.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130318PD225.html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/128...-nvidia-s-euology-with-nexus-snub?source=feed

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57...mobile-chip-business-hits-a-wall-with-growth/

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130201PD209.html

http://www.androidauthority.com/nvidia-tegra-4-fail-152894/

Makes sense. He's a master marketer though, he'll prob. nego with T and get other vendors to support and come out swinging on price.

PS - I have an N7, battery life is poor half of ipad2 but I like the price.

 

[Arkadrel]

"On time" isn't something nVidia has ever been known for. By the time the Tegra 4 actually ships it will have already been passed by.

^ maybe?

http://www.dailytech.com/Qualcomm+Claims+NVIDIA+Tegra+4+Will+be+Easily+Beat+by+Snapdragon+800/article30002.htm

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) in January made the bold claim that its Tegra 4 system-on-a-chip (SoC) was "the world's fastest mobile processor".

Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) is unphased, though, by NVIDIA's bold rhetoric. In an interview with The Verge, Qualcomm's Senior VP of Product Management, Raj Talluri, said that the Snapdragon 800 should "easily" beat Tegra 4 in most benchmarks. He's also confident that despite the die-shrink Tegra will still be more power hungry than Snapdragon, due to its lack of an on-die LTE modem. He adds that his company is "more focused on shipping products" than refuting rivals' braggadocio.

So far about 50 upcoming products have been announced or leaked that feature the Snapdragon 800, which begins sampling next quarter. The chip packs a quad-core processor clocked at up to 2.3 GHz, on-die LTE, and a fresh GPU, the Adreno 330.

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/31158-qualcomm-has-50 -snapdragon-600-800-designs

At least 50 designs wins.....snip...

.....snip....but this is just the start. The only Snapdragon 800 phone announced so far is the ZTE Grand Memo and Tim told us that more devices are on the way. He calls them design which means that not only phones will be powered by these chips. We are expecting convertibles, tablets even TVs. The number 50 is quite nice for a super high end chip, and you can imagine that Qualcomm will sell even more Snapdragon 400, 200 and even a great deal of last year's Snapdragon S4 chips.

This isnt just being late to the party.... its more like nvidia missed it.