Spike, I like the preamble, and thanks for bringing the thread back on topic.
Originally posted by: Spike
Anyway, back to the original topic at hand: I have no idea what nVidia is thinking. The only barely-logical reason to stockpile inventory is to clear out the old stock first so it does not impact sales of the newer, better version. After years of IE (industrial engineering) classes and experience in the workplace as an IE one of the things you learn is stockpiling inventory is never a good idea, especially in a recession. It's all about the just in time system and making sure you only make barely enough to satisfy demand, especially in a market as volatile as the gpu one is. Otherwise you are sitting on a product that has cost you money to make and is costing you money to store yet gains you nothing. All the while it's actual value to you may be shrinking... definitly an odd choice.
Let's start with Windows as an example: if it's not done by September, kiss Christmas good-bye. OEM systems have to be on the shelves. XP was an extraordinary amount of cooperation between MS and OEMs, so it was a little different for that release.
So nVidia has just a smattering of GPUs ready by September. Now we have two problems:
a) Supply and demand: who gets the supply?
b) Supply and demand: who purchases the supply?
Another thing to address: they aren't clearing out old stock first. That stock will be replenished for as long as their former top-of-the-line chips will suffice as mid-range performance, and later "value" purchases.
Sad example.
Board manufacturers have a ramp up period for building and testing, designing shelf boxes, marketing materials, magazine advertisements, etc. OEMs want those boards. But because the chips are coming in so late, nobody is ready for the Christmas shelves. Nor should they be...if official info about the chip were to be leaked, and then God forbid issues cause it to slip, good-bye Christmas to everyone: we all wait until Q1 2009 to make our purchases. Kills both nVidia and ATi sales, as well as OEM box sales.
On the flip side, if it does ship on time, and the manufacturers are ready, how many boards get into the mainstream? Now we have a very disgruntled Christmas, at least nobody hanging out on this forum is going to spend money, so again it kills both nVidia and ATi sales, as well as OEM box sales...we're waiting for supply to catch up to demand, there is no reason for them to drop prices on existing cards, the new cards are astronomically priced, etc.
So if this story is true, my guess is they recognized they can't meet anyone's demands, OEM or consumer, without cannibalizing everyone's Christmas wishes. Next best strategy is to have a happy Christmas for all, including AMD, then flood the market with what they think is the AMD killer, and totally rule over the next holiday season.