NVIDIA preparing four Maxwell GM204 SKUs (VideocardZ via S/A)

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Grooveriding

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2008
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Sometimes it takes 2 years :p

Or in this case five years of 28nm o_O

The reality is they have had to resort to selling midrange products as high end because they have no other choice. It's for the consumer to decide if a turd sandwich is filet mignon or not. Nothing that can be done anymore but just treat GPUs like CPUs now and upgrade every couple generations instead.

It is just a far less exciting product landscape now with much smaller improvements given.

We still can't say for certain just how slow or fast a 28nm 880 will be. If you go on the leaked board shot, the die is 400mm2, that is 2.7x a 750ti. Which performance wise=780ti doing a 2.7x multiplier to 750ti performance. Now I personally think it will have to be faster due to things like more memory bandwidth and a different SMM configuration on the card, but realistically I don't think there will be that much that is sensibly possible to be added with those changes.

My feeling is it will be an even smaller performance increase than gtx 680's 25% over the 580. And nvidia's marketers will try to shape the discussion into perf/w and maybe price. It could be say $600 instead of the $700 780ti. Of course it will have some impressive pros and be the better buy after release than the previous lineups, but as a new flagship over the old I think it will be dismal.

It's looking like nvidia and AMD just can't afford to keep up with big process improvements any more. 5 years of 28nm and small performance improvements... Maybe we have 10 years of 16nm to look forward to.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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If people slow down the GPU upgrade further. Then its just gonna be even worse. dGPU sales are on a fast decline.

One also have to wonder why it takes nVidia to long to get the higher Maxwell cards out. The obvious answer is ofcourse to postpone the nightmare as long as possible. Since a possible node shrink is so far away for economic reasons.

While the GM204 as such is a midrange, it will be the highend. I cant imagine nVidia being able to make a GK110 style chip at all. They may make one that is slightly larger, but not in the same category as GK104 vs GK110.

The dGPU is just in a negative feedback cyclus. They had it easy mode for many years just waiting for the next node to double the transistors. Now the game is changed.

The dGPU chair dance has begun. And there is only 1 chair left.
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
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How about AMD milking us through-out the history with their small sub 400, sub 300mm2 dies?

I am pretty sure that behaviour used to be called - engineering marvel, efficiency, AMD die-size advantage over brute-force NVidia with their huge monolithic dies (what ever that means LOL).

Now that Nvidia does it - all of sudden that's MILKING IT, and ripping off their customers.

So which one is it?

Large monolith die strategy for Nv has been described in many reviews since G80. It is not something people in our forum made up. This is in contrast to AMD's strategy before 290 where they used a midrange die to compete with NV. That strategy didn't work which is why AMD is trying to regain the performance crown by making even larger die GPUs as we have seen with 7970 and then 290 vs. 4870/5870.

You insinuated that AMD's chips are underperforming but the reality is they barely lost to Nv despite a major disparity in price at the high end, except when NV really outperformed with Kepler and AMD scrambled late with 290 series:

AMD practically made Nv pick up their jaw off the floor when they launched 4850 for $199 and 4870 for $299. It was so embarrassing for Nv that their $399 260 was slower than a $299 4870 and they had to not only lower the price but release a 260 216 shaders to compete. That's to say nothing of the stupidly overpriced $649 280 at launch that dropped to $499 1 month after release.

Let's keep going. 5850 overclocked easily outperformed the 285 OC and cost just $259. I mean looking in hindsight this was a ridiculous value since 5850 OC gave 95% of the performance of 5870 OC for $259 and this time AMD beat Nv to market by 6 months!! Ok 470/480 long term did end up much better due to more VRAM and tessellation performance but by then many moved on to next gen 40nm cards. I mean why wouldn't they since one could ride for 2 years on a 5850 OC $259 instead of buying 480 for $499, and then use the money to get 7950/7970/670, etc.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2841

Now 3rd generation in a row AMD delivered smoking value in the 6950 2GN. When I got my 6950 2GB it was only $230 and I remember 580 1.5GB cost $450! Are you kidding me? Dual unlocked 6950s mopped the floor with a 580, and you had to spend $550 to get a 3GB 580. Ya guess what happened to all those 1.28Gb 570/ 1.5GB 580 cards 2.5 years? VRAM limits galore. Worse yet the 580 barely beat the 6970 at 1600p (which is to say it barely beat a $230 6950 since they were more or less same card for a year+).

So we have 3 consecutive generations where AMD delivered a whopping 80-90% of the performance of NV and really when you look at price/performance you could almost always save a lot or get 2 AMD cards for nearly the price of a 480/580.

Now 4th generation we are at 7970 vs. 680. No doubt Kepler is a more efficient architecture for NV and AMD used a lot if die space for DP performance on Tahiti that is not useful for gamers but heck NV charges $3k for Titan Z because of DP. AMD miscalculated on including so much DP while NV went the other way, which is what made the gap in efficiency even greater in favor of NV.

Ok, but anyway what many here don't want to acknowledge is that 680 OC could never really beat the 7970 OC on average and especially not at 1600p. Of course with Nv one had to pay more for 4GB version or go with a 2GB version, which as we know today is a compromise in a few high profile games. Once again NV found a way to overcharge for what is a small cost for extra VRAM.

Now sure AMD raised prices to $550 with the 7970 and if we ignore Bitcoin mining which made 7970 free, 7970 still remains a smoking card 2.5 years after even if one paid the full price for it, especially in the 7970 OC CF configuration. Look at 780Ti SLI/R9 290X CF vs. 280X CF:

http://www.sweclockers.com/recension/18944-nvidia-geforce-gtx-titan-z/17#pagehead

^ Look how much you have to pay to significantly beat those 280Xs.....ouch.

Guess what for people who got 7970 + OC + CF on single monitors, you have to spend an exorbitant amount to get what 40-50% more performance 2.5 years later? Unlike 680 2GB SLI, 7970 OC CF keeps going, enough to skip 780Ti/R9 290X entirely until 880/390 series since 3GB of VRAM is enough for Wokfenstein, Titanfall, Watch Dogs at 1080/1440p.

And that's the point: not only have performance increases slowed down, but both AMD and NV raised prices. The difference is in how they did it and how they have responded since 7979 vs. 580 launched.

Luckily for us AMD came down to earth and gave us 290 for $400 which more or less makes 780Ti's price of $700 look unjustified at this point. You see a trend? Even after 7970, AMD is still giving you 80-85% of NV's flagship card for $400. What's Nv doing? They keep waiting on AMD to release new cards and adjust prices around them. $650 780 vs. $399 R9 290 for crying out loud. Until AMD forces NV's hand, they keep prices high as long as possible. If 290 didn't come out for $400, NV would have kept 780 at $650 for 5 months longer.

Grooveriding is right I believe that now Nv and AMD are splitting a real generation into 2. What used to be a $350 midrange launched along a $500-700 flagship (+50-70% faster) is now being split into 2 half generations of +30-45% and each of these cards launches at $500+. Essentially midrange moved up to $500-550.

We either have to skip some releases or keep upgrading for 30-40% 2x in a generation. With 880, at least on paper many are already seeing issues such as possible memory bandwidth and ROP limitation for high Rez gaming. The question is if Nv is purposely holding back GM210 to milk 880 at $500 or are they really limited by 28nm design/wafer costs that it's too expensive for them to launch a 500mm2+ chip right away? At least based on history we can bet more than 50% chance that AMD will release a chip with 80-85% of performance of Nv for hundreds of dollars less. Don't forget that many Nv
Loyalists just wait for AMD cards to put pressure in Nv to lower prices only to later buy a reduced in price Nv card anyway.

Other than 680 vs. 7970, NV hardly cares to bring a lot more performance to gamers at reasonable prices because they now realized that people will buy Nv anyway. Since 4870 generation, it has been AMD that forces NV to reduce prices. Look at buyers guides across the web. For the last 3-4 months it's nearly all AMD recommended cards but market share for AMD is hardly improving. Problem is NV's customers don't switch which is one of the key reasons Nv can pull $500+ midrange card all day long with the 880, even if 390X were to beat it by 20% or even 30%. Of course if 880Ti surprised with amazing performance, I will be pleasantly surprised and reward Nv with a purchase :)
 
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RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
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While the GM204 as such is a midrange, it will be the highend. I cant imagine nVidia being able to make a GK110 style chip at all. They may make one that is slightly larger, but not in the same category as GK104 vs GK110.

I think they also realize they will offset the lack of significant growth in the dGPu space with higher ASPs. NV's gross margins are at their record highs for the last 2 years. I don't see a reason why they can't manufacture a 550mm2 Maxwell on what is now a very mature 28 nm. That's why I lean closer to Grooveriding's theory that Nv is splitting the generations now to keep ASP and gross margins higher for a longer period of time. If they launch a $650 GM210 that's 30-35% than a $500 GM204, who is going to buy the 204 chip?

Now if NV ends up releasing GM210 on 16/20 nm node, well then their decision from a technical point of view is completely justified.
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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Man... you went on AMD vs NV history recap when all I asked was why AMD not releasing big die chips AT ALL,
therefore purposely holding back - is NOT milking, yet when NV does not release big chip - thats milking it.

And then you went on perf/price topic.
How come upcoming Maxwell chip is not held against the same perf/price standard?
Instead of these ridic milking, purposely holding back and whatnot accusation.

Why care about die size, nm (or about future chips) if perf, price and user experience is adequate NOW??
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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You insinuated that AMD's chips are underperforming but the reality is they barely lost to Nv despite a major disparity in price at the high end.

Did not!

Problem is NV's customers don't switch which is one of the key reasons Nv can pull $500+ midrange card all day long with the 880, even if 390X were to beat it by 20% or even 30%. Of course if 880Ti surprised with amazing performance, I will be pleasantly surprised and reward Nv with a purchase :)

well I really prefer NV, and I switched to 290 this round :eek:
so it seems that people are more and more price conscious, and AMD is not that helpless in brand/marketing department as you think
 

RussianSensation

Elite Member
Sep 5, 2003
19,458
765
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It used to be funny when we got a wall of off-topic nonsense, now it's just annoying...

Can you explain how it is off topic? We are discussing a new trend in GPUs which relates to GPUs getting more expensive, longer release time to market and Nv/AMD possibly splitting a generation I to 2 halves by delivering a similar 60-80% increase over 2 halves. I apologize if this is not interesting to you because this really impacts people's upgrade cycles. I think it is also interesting to discuss where the industry is moving. It is perfectly fine for is to guess wrong too since we don't work at NV.

Do you think 880Ti will be more than 35%
Faster than 780Ti? Do you think Nv will wait until 16/20nm
For GM210? Thoughts?
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
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Waiting for big-daddy Maxwell in order to get more bang (per buck?) and more longevity, instead of going straight for GM204 is nothing new

There is always some better product 6 months down the road.
I totally get why most would want "true high-end" chip, I just don't see NV purposely holding back. AMD vs NV are quite close for that to be possible.

And concerning GK110 being released full year after GK104, therefore "milking it" :rolleyes:

does anyone remember that Nvidia got out from 28nm supply nightmare as far as Q4 2012 / Q1 2013 (!!!) (GTX 680 was released in Q1 2012)

What fool would order 550mm2 GTX 780/Ti, K20x/40 release when they couldn't bring enough of 300mm2 GK104 to the market?
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
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The GK104 is 294mm2.

But yes, some people somehow feel entitled to the whole package. We see the same with CPUs. "I want 8cores for 200$ clocked at 4Ghz". And insert the usual nonsense about evil greedy company that doesnt give what they feel they deserve.
 

Majcric

Golden Member
May 3, 2011
1,409
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I wish nvidia would remove the ti from the lineup. To me, this sounds like we'll no longer be able to buy the top mid-range chip for $500-600. The 880 will probably be $500ish while the 880ti will around the $700.
 

Cloudfire777

Golden Member
Mar 24, 2013
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But you said it would have a 225watt TDP, which is only slightly less than GK110. If Maxwell is 70% more efficient per watt than Kepler, then a 225 watt TDP should translate into ~50% better performance.

It is only slightly more than GK104 too with 195W TDP :)

My core calculation:
GTX 780 Ti:
2880 cores

GTX 880 Ti:
2560 cores (exactly 20SMM) x 1.35% better efficiency = 3456 cores.
Meaning a GTX 880 Ti with 2560 Maxwell cores will perform like 3456 Kepler cores.

If GTX 780 Ti and GTX 880 Ti are clocked the same:
3456/2880 = 1.2 = 20% better performance

If GTX 880 Ti is clocked at 1080MHz like GTX 750 Ti (Maxwell):
3456 cores x 1080 MHz = 3732580
Devided on
2880 cores x 1000MHz = 2880000

= 1.3 = 30% better performance


I didnt use TDP because frankly I dont know what the TDP will be.
You say it is 70% more efficient per watt compared to Kepler which is true looking at the Techpowerup results.
But that makes me wonder if TDP are lower than 225W because of that. Wonder if Nvidia aim for a +50% 225W or a 195W +30% instead. Something tells me it the latter because its meant to replace 195W GK104 and the chip is designed to be in notebooks as well. Can`t go too high or it will be difficult to scale down to 100W mobile GPU.

Guess we will have to wait to find out :)
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
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  • Is AMD able to produce 500mm2 chip or not? If YES, by the same logic are they not milking us and holding back with performance all this time?. If NOT, wth are they really that incompetent?
  • Is it OK if Nvidia produces small sized chip with great performance/TDP? Or is it OK only if they don't release even bigger chip down the road :rolleyes:

Using the argument that "Billy does it too mom" doesn't justify anything. We are going to get the GM104 sold to us as the GTX-880, again. By moving the mid range die up to the top slot it allows for the price to be unrealistically inflated.

Now, I don't blame the IHV's for doing this. It's amazing though that even after people have it pointed out to them, it's just fine and they actually defend it, get satisfaction. Masochism is best left behind closed doors, it's disturbing to watch.

This is not a vendor discussion of AMD vs nVidia. That just clouds the facts.
 

DooKey

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2005
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You partisans can argue this all you want, but if you want the fastest single gpu card when it releases you'll pay the price. Every generation of vid card it's always the same and partisans just keep howling at the moon. Guess what? Other than you whiners/partisans BOTH companies sell their "high end" releases in more than enough numbers to justify the price they charge(other than true Halo stuff like 295x2 and TitanZ). So keep up the drama boys.
 

Cookie Monster

Diamond Member
May 7, 2005
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Using the argument that "Billy does it too mom" doesn't justify anything. We are going to get the GM104 sold to us as the GTX-880, again. By moving the mid range die up to the top slot it allows for the price to be unrealistically inflated.

Now, I don't blame the IHV's for doing this. It's amazing though that even after people have it pointed out to them, it's just fine and they actually defend it, get satisfaction. Masochism is best left behind closed doors, it's disturbing to watch.

This is not a vendor discussion of AMD vs nVidia. That just clouds the facts.

So whats the problem of a GM104 being sold as a GTX880 again? For all I care, it could be named Bananas and sold as a GTX10000XTX Monkey Edition. Am I going to upset because it doesnt have a codename apples? Your arguing semantics here. And what is a mid range die? is there some pre-requisite for a GPU to be classified a "mid-range" to the general public? Do the general public even care whats under the hood?

As long as the product in itself performs faster more (than 20% - my opinion) than the current offerings at reasonable prices (lower than current offerings would be great) and is readily available I just don't see what the problem is. Re-brands on the other hand I have a problem with.

We have yet to understand what new features are with this card, what the power consumption will be and how it actually performs in game with all the bells/whistles. If they are able to replace the 780Ti with an alternative that is cheaper while performing 20~30% faster on the same process node Id say that is pretty impressive.

Judging from the past trend, there is likely going to be a bigger maxwell but we dont know if they will opt to use 28nm (probably not even an option) or 20/16nm. This hypothetical big maxwell will probably come much later and probably distributed to industrial customers first before going retail. That could be another year and a half potentially with limited availability due to an immature process/very complex GPU but a +50% performance improvement for lots of money i assume.

I really want to highlight that designing these things aren't easy and they take YEARS. We've seen from the past how the wrong process node, or the immaturity of it coupled with rushing the product out can really impact the final result. So its great that atleast a product with the maxwell architecture (and hopefully AMD's equivalent) will be purchasable within this year as the dGPU space has been quite stagnant with regards to development.
 
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BD2003

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
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What's the conspiracy here? Unless someone is insinuating that AMD and NVIDIA are colluding and price fixing, to me it just looks like it's getting harder and harder to increase performance year over year.
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
2,243
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What's the conspiracy here? Unless someone is insinuating that AMD and NVIDIA are colluding and price fixing, to me it just looks like it's getting harder and harder to increase performance year over year.

Oh the usual. You know... Big companies are out to get our money.
Dumb costumers, we the masochist sheeple are empowering them by buying their overpriced products instead of mass boycotting and running them aground
 

DooKey

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2005
1,811
458
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What's the conspiracy here? Unless someone is insinuating that AMD and NVIDIA are colluding and price fixing, to me it just looks like it's getting harder and harder to increase performance year over year.

Pretty much. Also, price inflation is a fact of life, but some folks just can't seem to understand that fact.
 

DooKey

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2005
1,811
458
136
Oh the usual. You know... Big companies are out to get our money.
Dumb costumers, we the masochist sheeple are empowering them by buying their overpriced products instead of mass boycotting and running them aground

The bottom line is the bottom line. Unfortunately, marginal income people are being forced out of the high end market and they don't like it. I don't blame them, but the same could be said about those that once ate steak all the time or always purchased a high-end automobile. Inflation happens and filet mignon tastes only work on a filet mignon budget.
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
11,951
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Pretty much. Also, price inflation is a fact of life, but some folks just can't seem to understand that fact.

Let's see the 580 came out Nov. 2010 for $500. Titan came out Feb 2013 for $1000. Inflation isn't the reason. Do you have any idea what the inflation rate is for the US, for example? 2%? 3%?

The bottom line is the bottom line. Unfortunately, marginal income people are being forced out of the high end market and they don't like it. I don't blame them, but the same could be said about those that once ate steak all the time or always purchased a high-end automobile. Inflation happens and filet mignon tastes only work on a filet mignon budget.

Try listening to what's being said instead of trying to insult someone because you don't agree.
 

f1sherman

Platinum Member
Apr 5, 2011
2,243
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The bottom line is the bottom line. Unfortunately, marginal income people are being forced out of the high end market and they don't like it. I don't blame them, but the same could be said about those that once ate steak all the time or always purchased a high-end automobile. Inflation happens and filet mignon tastes only work on a filet mignon budget.

Yes, but not allways.

If someone wants to claim sudden GPU price rise, he REALLY need to look at the historical GPU prices and the asked value at the time:

  • Geforce 2 Ultra 499 US Dollars.
  • Geforce 3 499 US Dollars.
  • Geforce 5900 Ultra, 5950 Ultra 499 US Dollars.
  • Geforce 7800 GTX 599 US Dollars.
  • Geforce 8800 GTX 599 US Dollars.
  • Geforce GTX 280 649 US Dollars.

Guess what - when adjusted for inflation all these HIGH-END cards costed similar or more than 2013. GTX 780 Ti.

Let's see the 580 came out Nov. 2010 for $500. Titan came out Feb 2013 for $1000.

Titan is not even a graphic card. According to AMD itself :cool:
Seriously now. You know very well that Titan (mostly) belongs to whole another market. And that is the reason why it sold so well - even at $1000.
 
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