NVIDIA: PC games sales to surpass console game sales by 2014.

[busydude]

http://techgage.com/article/nvidia_talks_pc_gaming_trends/

During an NVIDIA conference call, a couple of interesting tidbits were disclosed that adds some fuel to the 'PC vs. Console' fire - and for once, they work to the favor of PC gamers. Would you believe that by 2014, PC game sales are expected to surpass console game sales?


I am not sure when the transition happened that had console games surpass PC games in sales, but it's been a long time - something I am often baffled by. So given this, the fact that the trends look to reverse is quite interesting, but not without reason.


In this quick article, we're going to take a look at some of the trends NVIDIA and its sources are predicting, and also take a look at some of the reasons (and potential reasons) why they're likely to hold true.

As of 2008, boxed copies of games had paltry sales compared to digital sales, and nothing at all looks to change. During 2011, nearly $15 billion is going to be attributed to digital sales while $2.5 billion belong to boxed copies. This is a trend I have to admit I am not surprised by. I'll never purchase another boxed copy if I can help it.


The death of PC gaming has long been a mocking-point of console gamers, but recent trends show that the PC has nothing to stress over. One such trend is free-to-play, where games are inherently free, but support paid-services such as purchasing in-game items. This has proven wildly successful, and has even caused the odd MMORPG to get rid of it subscription fee. It's also caused a lot of games to be developed with the F2P mechanic decided from the get-go.

 

[aigomorla]

Thats under the assumption pc hardware stays down in price.

Pre 2004 to get a pc as good as a console it would cost almost 5x the price if not more.

Now u can get the box core of a pc for the same price of a ps3... So hardware being cheeper will help the game community

 

[Red Hawk]

Yeah, if the new Sony and Microsoft consoles come out by 2014 that would rebalance the whole market. PCs would no longer provide the best value anymore, if Sony and Microsoft start selling at a loss again.

 

[Ultralight]

Still... so much for the "Death of PC Gaming" mantra sung around the Gaming Console Consortium campfires for the last two years.

 

[aigomorla]

Still... so much for the "Death of PC Gaming" mantra sung around the Gaming Console Consortium campfires for the last two years.

thats because in 2014 i bet you the console will be a dumified nettop with a uber video card which doubles as a HTPC.

 

[Conscript]

While I'd love for it to materialize like that, as i've never been big into consoles since my NES...take it with a grain of salt and ask yourself if their forecast has anything to do with them losing the contract bids all 3 next gen console platforms...

 

[CPA]

Part of it has to be console age, as well. I would think that new consoles would push game sales higher. Maybe not.

 

[TakeNoPrisoners]

Thats under the assumption pc hardware stays down in price.

Pre 2004 to get a pc as good as a console it would cost almost 5x the price if not more.

Now u can get the box core of a pc for the same price of a ps3... So hardware being cheeper will help the game community

Was the same thing when the Xbox 360 was released, to play Oblivion at the same quality that the Xbox 360 could output required at least $600 in hardware.

The best time to get a console is early in its life when they are selling the console at a loss to generate sales. That way you can capatilize on their stratagy and cash in on the hardware. You can then sell the console later when it becomes convenient to do so.

 

[shortylickens]

Thats under the assumption pc hardware stays down in price.

Pre 2004 to get a pc as good as a console it would cost almost 5x the price if not more.

Now u can get the box core of a pc for the same price of a ps3... So hardware being cheeper will help the game community

People already have computers anyway. And a lot of those sales are low-end indie puzzle games which dont require a powerful 3D card.

 

[Smartazz]

Something that will be interesting to see next generation is whether or not they use high end GPUs again. The acceptable TDPs of consoles is way below what is acceptable in a gaming desktop. The RSX and Xenon in the PS3 and Xbox 360 had relatively low TDPs despite being pretty high end at the time. The high end from Nvidia and AMD looks vastly different today as TDPs of single cards like the GTX 580 are close to 250 watts. If this power usage trend continues(and I think it will), how much heat will high end GPUs be putting out? Perhaps the next consoles won't use high end GPUs and PCs will really start to pull away in terms of graphics power. This could also keep PC gaming relatively cheap as games would be less demanding if the consoles were weaker.

 

[BladeVenom]

The best time to get a console is early in its life when they are selling the console at a loss to generate sales. That way you can capatilize on their stratagy and cash in on the hardware. You can then sell the console later when it becomes convenient to do so.

And I doubt MS and Sony will subsidize them as much next generation. They both lost too much money to do that again.

 

[blackened23]

take it with a grain of salt and ask yourself if their forecast has anything to do with them losing the contract bids all 3 next gen console platforms...

Pretty much this. This forecast is laughable to say the least, as it takes social games (facebook), non gaming revenue and mmo subs into account. Whats more, steam does not release DD sales information to anyone except NPD and developers. The top selling PC game, starcraft 2, can't even break into the top 30 of all games sold.

Since NPD now tracks digital sales, its pretty hilarious that nvidia is doing this (has everything to do with them losing ALL THREE console bids) when PC DD game sales cant' even crack top 50 on all games sold. Unless its a blizzard game.

 

[Zenoth]

I'm taking this with a grain, wait no, with two grains of salt, and sugar too while I'm at it. I don't think that PC games sales will ever surpass the sales on consoles of a single generation that has been and is still being milked dry and past that point to the bones on a molecular level for a period of six years. Additionally, new consoles should be on the horizon soon enough, Nintendo already jumped on a new wagon with the Wii U, we just need Sony and Microsoft to follow suit and once more the cycle and history will be repeated for perhaps a decade following that next generation.

 

[HeXen]

This is just heresay, a stupid conference call at that and some graphs based on current trends that just so happens can change at any moment. Assuming there is no PS4 and xbox 720 or whatever released by then AND assuming the economy isnt in worse shape by then.
wtf, stupid childish bragrights crap anyway...just buy whatever platform you want

 

[aigomorla]

While I'd love for it to materialize like that, as i've never been big into consoles since my NES...take it with a grain of salt and ask yourself if their forecast has anything to do with them losing the contract bids all 3 next gen console platforms...

Isnt the Wii 2 suposed to use ATI's GPU?

LOL so you think this is Nvidia's response as being a sour loser?

 

[SMOGZINN]

Something that will be interesting to see next generation is whether or not they use high end GPUs again. The acceptable TDPs of consoles is way below what is acceptable in a gaming desktop. The RSX and Xenon in the PS3 and Xbox 360 had relatively low TDPs despite being pretty high end at the time. The high end from Nvidia and AMD looks vastly different today as TDPs of single cards like the GTX 580 are close to 250 watts. If this power usage trend continues(and I think it will), how much heat will high end GPUs be putting out? Perhaps the next consoles won't use high end GPUs and PCs will really start to pull away in terms of graphics power. This could also keep PC gaming relatively cheap as games would be less demanding if the consoles were weaker.

I don't think the next gen consoles will be much more powerful then the current generation. Overall I expect them to be about the same as a mid-range laptop. They will have a powerful enough GPU to barely push 3D video, and that is about it.

And I doubt MS and Sony will subsidize them as much next generation. They both lost too much money to do that again.

I doubt they will have to, instead they are just going to make them with cheaper parts. I expect the consoles to come out at the $300-400 range again and need little subsidy.

 

[blackened23]

And I doubt MS and Sony will subsidize them as much next generation. They both lost too much money to do that again.

Lost too much money? They lost money initially in the hopes that they would catch on well enough to turn a profit after a couple of years...and thats exactly what happened. Both MS and Sony broke even years ago after their initial loss, and both are turning profits now.

I'm sure the same will happen with the next generation of consoles.

 

[KaOTiK]

 

[Father Torque]

"I am not sure when the transition happened that had console games surpass PC games in sales, but it's been a long time - something I am often baffled by."


Have PC game sales ever surpassed console game sales in the history of gaming ? And why would that baffle him,especially in the 70's,80's and 90's when computers were super expensive and most people had no use for them.

 

[Nintendesert]

Of course PC sales are going to outclass the console market eventually. The digital distribution alone makes the PC a superior platform for game makers. You can go on a STEAM rampage and buy tons of games. The market is wide open and you don't need to play by or give kickbacks to Nintendo or Sony.

With the CPU/GPU combinations getting stronger in graphical ability the potential platform base is also much much bigger than consoles.

You can also load up your laptop with your games and take them with you. In essence it becomes your gameboy without the need to go out and buy another copy of the game.

Game developers are already seeing the writing on the wall, just look at Epic.

 

[vrait]

"I am not sure when the transition happened that had console games surpass PC games in sales, but it's been a long time - something I am often baffled by."


Have PC game sales ever surpassed console game sales in the history of gaming ? And why would that baffle him,especially in the 70's,80's and 90's when computers were super expensive and most people had no use for them.

Consoles are only big in the US, and Japan. In Europe and Korea, it's all about the PCs. Plus who doesn't own a PC theses days? You could get a used one for under $100 easy. PCs are getting cheaper and cheaper for awesome ones. Once the new consoles come out, consoles will get a good boost. But then die down again. While the PC market just keeps on growing.

Indie games or not, a game is a game. Consoles have indie games aswell. So they have no excuse.

 

[blackened23]

Game developers are already seeing the writing on the wall, just look at Epic.

Here's a post from GeorgeB (who is a designer at Epic): :awe: (dated Sep. 8th)

This is why Gamestop has virtually no shelf space for pc games anymore (and most retail shops are similar). This is why no publisher will sign a PC only game and every dev has to do console first, and primary, then port to PC for some residual sales. This is why the overall PC market has shrunk year over year for a decade (coinciding with the rise of powerful gaming consoles).
You can point at whatever you want, but the reality is that games cost too much money to make today, and due to that cost, they are required to be cross platform products so that they can try to make as much money as possible. The PC is always last in terms of consideration. Trust me. No matter what any dev says in public, the truth is that in most cases, on most game the PC is last. This is why the pc sku's always get the shaft in terms of quality, patches, bug fixes, dlc and whatever else.

That doesn't mean there aren't and won't be great games to play, but it's a declining market compared to consoles, even if the overall market grows over 10 years and pc games today sell more than 10 years ago. It's about the ratio of sales and that ratio dictates priority.

There are bright spots. MMOs. Indie games. Steam. But it is what it is and it will never change unless the money situation changes and that likely won't happen because people move to consoles but very few move back to pc. It isn't gloom and doom. It's reality. Don't be defensive and try to fool yourself to the contrary.

 

[paperfist]

Part of it has to be console age, as well. I would think that new consoles would push game sales higher. Maybe not.

I wonder how much of it is console users 'growing up' and wanting more? I remember as a kid the Atari 2600 was all the rage, but after a while it grew stale and I wanted something more complex to play and thus went on to a Commodore 64.

At any rate I say it's BS that PC game sales will surpass console game sales anytime soon. Remember nVidia doesn't do well if PC gaming doesn't do well.

 

[zinfamous]

ah yes. sales.

so the fuck what.

quite easy when you can sell a basket-full of games for a total of $5.




what about revenue?


Oh, I totally misread that first chart, lol.

carry on.

 

[JSt0rm]

Lmao